Slate Overview- Week 5 Thoughts
Week 5 is interesting this week, as there have been several injuries that have popped up over the week. We have another week where Jordan Mason is expected to be near 50% rostered which is going to determine roster strategy. At $7,400, the price is a fair one for Mason who has scored between 20 and 27 in three of his four games this season. For Mason, despite his high rostered percentage each week, he has not been on a winning Millionaire Maker lineup all year. At 50% rostered, he seems to be a clear way to get differentiation for the rest of your lineup.
So, how should you approach the rest of your lineup? This is a week where most people are going to pay up at running back, down at quarterback, and down at wide receiver. Players such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel Sr., and DK Metcalf are all going to be lower rostered than they probably should be.
Key Injuries for Week 5
- The Panthers linebacker situation is abysmal. Shaq Thompson who is the team’s leading tackler is out for the season, while Josey Jewell is also out this week. This was already one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. These injuries should set up extremely well for the Bears’ rushing offense, but the question is whether we believe in the emergence of D’Andre Swift after just one great week and three poor performances.
- Davante Adams is once again out this week with a hamstring injury and desire to be traded. At $4,100, Tre Tucker is one of the best value plays on this slate. Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers also should see an increase in volume this week, but there's very few options on the low-end at wide receiver.
- Zamir White is also out for the Raiders. At $5,200, Alexander Mattison should be a solid value play this week. We’ve gone down this path before with Mattison and there is always risk associated with it dating back to the Minnesota days, but the matchup is looking like a difficult one after they completely shut down Breece Hall last week, but Mattison should see enough volume to be cash game relevant.
- Malik Nabers will miss this week with a concussion. Wan’Dale Robinson will likely be the top target. Robinson is not likely to be cash game viable this week given the lack of touchdown upside that the 5’7’’ receiver has this week.
- The Giants are also likely going to be without Devin Singletary. With no Singletary, Tyrone Tracy Jr. appears the most likely to get the majority of the carries. At $4,300 he’s a decent value play, as the Giants have no other players to threaten carries. However, he’s a player who could become more popular than he should be as currently he’s tracking to be about 25% rostered.
- Jonathan Taylor is out this week with an ankle injury. Trey Sermon at $5,700 will get the start. The matchup is difficult for the Colts against a good Jaguars run defense. Sermon has just one start in his career when he had 88 yards on 17 carries. The issue for Sermon is that he’s shown an inability to catch the ball throughout his career. This could open up doors for more of a pass-heavy approach to Michael Pittman Jr or Josh Downs.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is not going to start this week but will play according to Jerod Mayo. For Antonio Gibson, he’s the better pass catcher of the two and at just $5,100 he could be going under the radar at just 6% rostered.
- Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are both doubtful this week. This should consolidate a lot of the work for Green Bay to Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft. Of the three, Jayden Reed is the guy to target as at $6,500 should project to be one of the top wide receivers this week.
- Joe Flacco is likely going to start for the Colts as Anthony Richardson is doubtful. This is a significant upgrade for Michael Pittman Jr and Josh Downs this week as the passing game should be much improved with Flacco compared to Richardson.
Stacks
Joe Flacco, Michael Pittman Jr, Brian Thomas Jr.
With Joe Flacco starting, this should be an ideal matchup for the gunslinger to put up a massive day. This is a defense that is a good run-stopping unit but has struggled stopping the pass as they have allowed Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, and Josh Allen to have huge days. For Flacco, he threw for over 300 yards in five of his six games last season. In the partial game last week, we saw Michael Pittman Jr have 6 receptions for 113 yards against Pittsburgh. This has all the makings of a massive game for Flacco and the Colts offense especially with Jonathan Taylor out this week.
For Brian Thomas Jr., he’s quickly establishing himself as the top receiver in Jacksonville. He is tied with the team lead in receptions with Christian Kirk, but Kirk is more of a possession receiver while having almost 100 more yards than Kirk as Thomas is the downfield threat in this offense. The Colts have allowed over 100 yards to George Pickens and Rome Odunze both of whom are big-play threats albeit neither has the speed that Thomas has. This is a game in which the Jaguars need to settle and establish the passing attack after Trevor Lawrence has struggled losing his last eight games in a row.
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Derrick Henry
A lot of people are going to look at the Baltimore matchup as well as the price of Burrow and Chase and simply look elsewhere. However, this is not the traditional Baltimore defense. This is a defense that is allowing the third-most passing yards per game in the 2024 season. They were simply torched by Dallas as Dak Prescott threw for 379 yards and 2 touchdowns, while both Gardner Minshew II and Patrick Mahomes II both topped 275 yards. Chase started slow the first two weeks after there was some uncertainty whether he would sit out this offseason, but he has bounced back quickly over the last two weeks. Over the last two games, Chase has 118 yards and 2 touchdowns against Washington and 85 yards and a touchdown against a good Carolina pass defense. With Tee Higgins starting to get healthier, this has alleviated some attention that Chase has had to deal with.
Derrick Henry is in an ideal matchup this week as Cincinnati has been one of the worst run-stopping teams in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed 90 rushing yards or more to three of the four running backs that they’ve faced this season and defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins will miss this week once again. It’s not a normal stack to take a quarterback and the opposing running back, but if this game is going to shoot out, it’s likely because Henry has multiple touchdowns.
Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jordan Mason
If you want to play Jordan Mason, playing Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. could be a way to pay this strategy off. The game script here is relatively simple. If the 49ers get up early, you could see a lot of Kyler Murray in garbage time. With Mason at 50% rostered, you can create uniqueness with a roster build by taking Murray who is projected to be just 2% rostered. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been disappointing despite topping 100 yards back in Week 2.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Often times, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Lamar Jackson- $7,500- 9%
Lamar is in play every single week. He is a player you don’t need to stack, and probably shouldn’t stack as there are so many people using models that will force a stack with their quarterback. With Jackson, his rushing upside is unique that only a couple of quarterbacks in the NFL have. Taking on a Cincinnati defense that has issues in their front seven with an injured defensive line.
Josh Allen- $7,700- 6%
To get a player like Josh Allen at just 6%, it’s almost a must consideration regardless of price. This should be a matchup that has a high-scoring potential as both Buffalo and Houston boast high-powered offenses. With Houston, the way to beat their defense is through the air. Through their first four games, Houston has allowed big games from both Anthony Richardson and Sam Darnold as both players topped 23 DraftKings points with Darnold getting to 27.08. Last season, Allen had 15 rushing touchdowns, but he is well below pace in 2024, as he has just two rushing touchdowns on the year both of which came in Week 1. Without a rushing touchdown over the last three games, part of that is due to none of their last three games have been close. They won dominantly in Week’s 2 and 3 but lost in a blowout in Week 4. This should be a close game between two very good teams and force Allen to run more than he has the last several weeks.
Value Play
Deshaun Watson- $5,300- 5%
The stats don’t tell the full story from last week. Deshaun Watson played as well as he has had in Cleveland despite the loss to Las Vegas last week. He had an 82-yard touchdown called back on a horrific holding call, while also having a 20-yard perfect pass that bounced off Amari Cooper’s chest for an interception. Watson is averaging 29 rushing yards per game this season. This is a matchup that the Browns have to take advantage. Washington has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL as we saw Baker Mayfield throw for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Joe Burrow had 324 yards and 3 touchdowns. For the Browns to turn their season around, they’re going to need this game before going to Philadelphia next week.
Running Back
High-End Play-
Last week, De’Von Achane had 29 touches including 7 receptions. With Raheem Mostert out once again this week, Achane should be in line for a significant workload. It’s unlikely he will see 29 touches this week as Jeff Wilson Jr. will return from injury this week, but the Dolphins are going to want to get the ball into playmakers hands to make Thompson’s life easier in his first start in two seasons.
Value Plays
Josh Jacobs- $6,400 20%
Targeting the running back who is facing Los Angeles just one week after D’Andre Swift had 29.5 DraftKings points is a solid idea. For Jacobs, it seems as if he got game scripted out of last week’s game as the team abandoned the run after falling behind Minnesota 14-0 in the first quarter. There is some risk here, as Emmanuel Wilson continues to have a role in this game, but Jacobs is by far the better runner and with the Packers in a game that they should win, they’ll need to give Jacobs volume to exploit this defense that desperately misses Aaron Donald.
D'Andre Swift- $5,600 16%
We were a week early on the D’Andre Swift breakout game, but we saw it come last week. Against Los Angeles, Swift had 93 rushing yards with a touchdown, while adding 7 receptions for 72 yards. While the rushing production is unlikely to be as great as I was last week, what is encouraging is the usage in the passing game. With Caleb Williams having an up-and-down season scheming some easy throws to Swift should likely continue after the success last week. The matchup is as good as it gets facing a Carolina Panthers defense that has major issues at linebacker this week with both of their starting linebackers out this week.
Chuba Hubbard- $6,100- 15%
Chuba Hubbard looks like a completely different running back over the last two games with Andy Dalton at the quarterback position. Over the last two weeks, Hubbard has 30.9 and 25.1 DraftKings points which is the third most in the NFL, yet he’s priced as the 17th-highest running back this week. 15% is just too low, especially for a Bears run defense that is starting to fall apart as Kyren Williams and Jonathan Taylor both had big days against this defense over the last two weeks.
Austin Ekeler- $5,600- 1%
This is a matchup that Austin Ekeler should be able to exploit. Brian Robinson Jr is going to start, but this is the type of matchup that could benefit Ekeler as he returns from a concussion. Against one of the worst rushing offense in the NFL, Las Vegas was still able to gain 121 yards on the ground with their running backs. The Browns have the vibes of a team that seem to be on the verge of just giving up when things get difficult. In Week 3, we saw Devin Singletary hurt this defense through the air as he had 4 receptions for 43 yards on top of 65 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Browns have the secondary to limit the Commanders as Denzel Ward should see a lot of Terry McLaurin which could allow a lot of check-downs to Ekeler who was on the field for 53% and 43% in each of the first two weeks.
Fade
Jordan Mason- $7,400 50%
People just continue to want to play Jordan Mason regardless of price. While he’s been good, he has not been on winning GPP lineups, as he’s been so highly rostered each week. The issue continues to be the same thing each week, his lack of pass-catching ability continues to kill his upside despite gaining over 100 yards in three games and a touchdown this season. Mason has just six receptions over his four games as a starter this season, so unless he’s scoring multiple touchdowns, he’s unlikely to get to GPP value. The biggest problem is that even if he does score multiple touchdowns and gets to the 4x value, half the field is currently likely to have him in their lineup. You’re better off looking at a multi-touchdown prop, or a site like Underdog Pickem where you can get many multiples on a two-touchdown and 100-yard game, as with a GPP there’s not even a guarantee that you cash if he has a big game.
Wide Receiver
Jayden Reed- $6,500- 13%
Reed is going vastly under looked this week. In his two games with Jordan Love, Reed has topped 130 yards in both games. At $6,500 this is $1,200 cheaper than Nico Collins but has the same upside as Collins. With no Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson, expect the targets to Reed to continue. The Packers are in a tremendous matchup this week facing off against the Rams, who do not have a strong secondary as we’ve seen Jameson Williams (27.4), Marvin Harrison Jr.. (32.0), and Jauan Jennings (49.0) all have dominant performances against this Rams defense.
DK Metcalf- $7,000 6%
DK Metcalf is another receiver who is going to go overlooked simply because of how the salaries are allocated to high-end running backs. For Metcalf, he’s had three straight 100-yard performances against much more difficult matchups than the one that he’s facing this week. This is an offense that has been a surprise as it leads the NFL in passing yards. The Giants have struggled with stopping number one receivers the last two weeks as CeeDee Lamb had 23.6 and Amari Cooper had 27.6 over the last two weeks.
Diontae Johnson- $6,100
Diontae Johnson is the player where people don’t seem to want to go back to him after he had a solid week last week. At a very affordable $6,100, he’s still just $6,100 and the primary receiving threat for the Panthers given the injury to Adam Thielen. Last week, Johnson had 7 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown, Johnson now has scored a touchdown in each of his two games with Andy Dalton starting and is still at a depressed price because of the disaster that the team was before Dalton became the starter. The Bears
Brandon Aiyuk- $6,300- 2%
At some point this season, Brandon Aiyuk is going to need to step up given all of the drama that he brought to the team in the offseason. Despite the injuries to George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel Sr. at various points this season, Aiyuk has been a disaster as he hasn’t topped 50 yards this season and doesn’t have a touchdown despite five red zone targets. Here’s the thing, Aiyuk has shown throughout his career that at times he has as much upside as just about any wide receiver each week. Aiyuk topped 100 yards 7 times in 2023. At 2% rostered, you have to believe that there’s a breakout game coming for the receiver that the 49ers invested $30M per year in.
Bottom of the Barrel-
You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary
Tre Tucker- $4,100
Darius Slayton, $3,900
Jordan Whittington- $4,600
Wan’Dale Robinson- $5,600
Tight End
Tight end is a disaster this week. You’re going to see most of the roster percentage centered around a couple of different players. This week, about 50% of the roster percentage at the position is going to be centered around Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Kraft, and Erick All Jr.. With how random the tight end position is, these are pretty easy fades as you're hoping for touchdown variance on a week where there are just not the elite tight ends that we've become accustomed to over the last couple of seasons.
David Njoku- $5,000- 5%
If Njoku is playing, he’s an excellent play this week. Njoku played just 37% in Week 1 and had 4 receptions for 44 yards. In a favorable matchup against the Commanders, the Browns should be able to throw the ball against the Commanders this week. We’re looking for tight ends with upside in a GPP format, and Njoku had a career season in 2023 with both yards and touchdowns.
Zach Ertz- $3,800-
This is similar to the Austin Ekeler write-up, which is essentially how are the Commanders going to move the ball if Denzel Ward locks down Terry McLaurin. With Brian Robinson Jr banged up with a knee injury and Noah Brown the team’s leading red zone target out, the Commanders should be looking at another target. Washington struggled to find the end-zone the first two weeks but has thrown three touchdowns over the last two games.
