Slate Overview- Week 4 Thoughts
There seems to be a trend so far to 2024. Through three weeks, the key to building lineups has been to spend up at one running back, down at the other running back, and then taking a bunch of middle-of-the-road wide receivers. Over the first couple of weeks, we've seen top-end wide receivers and tight ends go undervalued and for the most part, they haven't had that slate-breaking game. However, that doesn't mean that it is not coming for players such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, the top-end tight ends, etc.
This week, there are several different options that you could go to based on the injuries that exist. It seems that people are not taking into account injuries enough as they should be this week. Players in Philadelphia, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh are all going to be rostered lower than they should be as the crowds are all funneling towards certain types of builds with Jordan Mason, Diontae Johnson, one high-end running back in Breece Hall, or Saquon Barkley, and high-end quarterbacks such as Jayden Daniels or Kyler Murray. It should be very easy to build a unique lineup this week by avoiding some of these highly rostered players and taking a similar-priced player who may have similar upside.
Key Injuries for Week 4
- Jordan Love seems likely to play this week. With Love, it’s extremely risky this week, but you could take a chance on a player like Jayden Reed who should receive an upgrade with Love in the lineup.
- Davante Adams is out this week. This is a tricky one, as both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers should get an upgrade against Cleveland. Tre Tucker had a great week last week and could once again have a big opportunity as a GPP play at just $3,600. The path for the Raiders to be competitive this week is through the air as Zamir White and this rushing attack have done nothing this season. Expect Bowers to be one of the highest rostered players on this slate, while Meyers is a good play although not a must one as he comes with his own risks regarding a low floor, but did have 7 receptions last week.
- Justin Herbert is looking like he will be out this week. With no Herbert, the Chiefs offense gets a downgrade in what should be a less competitive game despite Taylor Heinicke looking like he will get the start.
- Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce look more doubtful than questionable this week, although Mixon did return to practice on Friday. Cam Akers is more expensive than we’d like him to be at $5,300 given his struggles last week, but if you need a cheap running back he could be someone to look at this week.
- Jaylen Warren is out this week. This should be a perfect matchup for Najee Harris going up against a bad run defense in Indianapolis.
- A.J. Brown might return this week. It seems unlikely, but he did practice on Friday. DeVonta Smith is also out for the Eagles. If Brown is unable to go, it could just be a must-play for Saquon Barkley, as the Eagles do not have a great receiving option amongst Jahan Dotson, Johnnie Wilson, and Parris Campbell. If one of them was cheaper, it could be tempting, but as of now, it’s Barkley or Dallas Goedert this week.
- Chris Olave is questionable this week, but he did travel with the team on Saturday. With him traveling within 24 hours of the game, it would seem reasonable that he is going to play this week.
- Evan Engram is out this week. Brenton Strange will get the start at tight end. Strange is an athletic tight end who has 11 targets over the last two games.
- Trey McBride is out this week. Elijah Higgins is another cheap tight end who is going to start this week. Higgins is another athletic tight end who has not had much of a role this season, but at 6’3’’ 235 pounds is a player who could cause mismatches for the struggling Commanders' defense this week.
Stacks
Top Stack
C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr..
The Texans have been unable to get much going offensively all season. C.J. Stroud is averaging just 237 passing yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns per game. For a quarterback who doesn’t run, this is an issue as he’s well below his pace of 274 and 1.5 touchdowns from last season. The one bright spot for the passing game has been Nico Collins who has at least 85 yards in all three games including topping 100 yards twice this season. The matchup could not be better this week for Houston as they’re at home and facing a Jaguars secondary that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opponents this season.
The Jaguars are all out of sorts to start the season. They’re 0-3 and have been unable to consistently pass the ball this year. If they’re going to get right, it’s likely going to be needing to throw the ball deep down the field with Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas is a big play specialist averaging 17.2 yards per catch this season, but we did see him evolving this past week as he had 9 targets as they tried to get him in space on some easier throws for Trevor Lawrence. Thomas is the team’s most athletic receiver as the rookie ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. Houston has one of the NFL’s best-run defenses but has been vulnerable against the pass this season as Alec Pierce burned them for a long pass in Week 1 en route to his 125-yard performance on just 3 catches.
Under the Radar Stacks
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Saquon Barkley
While most of the success has gone to Chris Godwin through three weeks, Mike Evans has been relatively quiet through three weeks. Evans over the last several seasons, Evans has shown he has as much upside as just about any receiver in the NFL as last season he had three games where he topped 140 yards with a touchdown. Through the first three weeks, the Eagles have struggled to stop number one receivers as Jayden Reed (33.1), Drake London (17.4), and Chris Olave (20.6) all dominated this Eagles defense. To get Mike Evans at 5% rostered this week is just too low compared to Chris Godwin who is projected to be near 15%.
This is a unique stack with Saquon Barkley but with all the injuries to the Eagles, if it is a high scoringhigh-scoring game, Barkley will be the reason why. Tampa Bay has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL this season as through three weeks they are allowing 70 yards per game to the position. Barkley has been the best running back in the NFL through three weeks as he has topped 100 yards in each game while having 5 touchdowns on the year.
Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase
For some reason, people are not believing in Andy Dalton this week. After the Bengals quarterback went out and dominated the Raiders throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns, he is projected to only be 3% rostered this week. Dalton in his two starts for Carolina over the last two seasons has topped 300 yards in both games and immediately makes this offense look significantly better. With Dave Canales in Carolina, we can expect some excitement from this offensive guru who resurrected Baker Mayfield’s career. With Dalton at $5,300 you can create some unique player combinations at the wide receiver and running back positions on a week where there is not much exciting value. Diontae Johnson is expected to be one of the highest rostered players on this slate at just $5,600 after his 122-yard and touchdown performance last week. However, what’s interesting about that, is that the only likely outcome of Johnson having a GPP winning performance is if Dalton again throws for nearly 300 yards as if Dalton struggles, we’ve seen what that does to the entire Panthers offense.
For Chase, the thought process is pretty clear. At $7,700, he’s expensive, but you can easily play him due to the savings you’ve created at the quarterback position. For most people, if they’re paying up at wide receiver, they’re likely going to pair him with that quarterback associated with the player, as both Chase and Joe Burrow are projected to be rostered around 11-12%. However, unlike Johnson, there are plenty of scenarios where Ja’Marr Chase could have 100 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Joe Burrow only has 240 yards and 2 touchdowns on the entire day.
Patrick Mahomes II, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
The Chiefs' passing game has been largely disappointing this season. This is a team that is averaging just 219 passing yards per game despite a 3-0 start to the season. However, with Mahomes, it is impossible to rule out a special performance especially when it comes to a divisional game. In his last two games against the Chargers, Mahomes had 424 yards/4 touchdowns and 329 yards/3 touchdowns. This is a team that started slow the first few weeks in 2023 before Mahomes had a 306-yard game against Denver and then the 424-yard performance against the Chargers last year. With teams not playing as much in the preseason as they used to, this could certainly be time for the Chiefs to start getting right.
Kelce is going to be the key to getting this offense right. Rashee Rice has been fantastic through the first three weeks, but Kelce has largely been a non-factor. Despite his salary decreasing to $5,800, Kelce is projected to be rostered by just 2% of rosters.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Jayden Daniels- $6,500 16%
Jayden Daniels is looking like the same player that won the Heisman last season. He’s on pace for 969 rushing yards for the season while he has also run for three touchdowns through three games this season. With Daniels, you don’t necessarily need to stack him with Terry McLaurin even though McLaurin is a tremendous value this week after having his first 100-yard game of the season. Daniels has shown he can also spread the ball to Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, and Luke McCaffrey. The Cardinals struggled against Josh Allen in Week 1 allowing 32.18 DraftKings points to the Bills quarterback.
Value Play
Caleb Williams- $5,600- 4.0%
Caleb Williams is getting a lot of negative press after three weeks. However, this is a combination of unfair expectations, offensive line issues, and no ability to run the ball. The Bears have also faced two very good defenses in Tennessee and Houston. In their first favorable matchup, Williams put up solid fantasy numbers despite not having a great performance. Williams threw for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions without Keenan Allen. This week, the matchup is an ideal one, as the Rams' defense is amongst the worst defenses in the NFL this year. They’re allowing the second-most DraftKings points on the season to opposing quarterbacks as both Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray threw for three touchdowns in back-to-back games.
Other Options:
Jalen Hurts- $7,200- 6%
Sam Darnold- $5,700- 2%
Running Back
Najee Harris- $5,600- 18%
With no Jaylen Warren this week, Najee Harris is going to see as much volume as he can handle. The good news is that Harris is in the perfect matchup this week. At 3-0, Pittsburgh takes on the Colts who have had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. While they looked better last week against the Bears, that is more on the Bears' offensive line rather than the Colts showing improvement. Through the first two weeks of the season, The Colts allowed 150 yards or more to both Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon. Najee Harris should see a vast majority of the carries this week as he has averaged 18.3 carries per game this season while also adding five receptions last week.
Aaron Jones- $6,400- 17%
If the revenge narrative is a real thing, this is the game that it should matter. Aaron Jones returning to Green Bay after the Packers chose to take Josh Jacobs over him this offseason. Jones has been tremendous for the Vikings as he is averaging 5.4 yards-per-carry, and last week we saw Jones have 19 carries for 102 yards while adding 5 receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown through the air. Green Bay has struggled against the run this season as we’ve seen both Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley run for over 100 yards this season. The Packers did shut down the Titans run game last week, but that was largely due to the Titans abandoning it running the ball just eight total times after falling behind early.
Saquon Barkley- $8,000-10%
A lot of people are going to see that Philadelphia is facing Tampa Bay and just quickly move on to the next player. We’ve become so accustomed to avoiding this Buccaneers matchup for running backs, but this is not necessarily the case this season. Through three weeks, the Buccaneers are allowing 70 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs which leads the NFL. For Barkley, he’s going to be asked to do just about everything this week with no A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith this week. While Vita Vea will return for Tampa Bay, Barkley is equally as dangerous off tackle or through the passing game.
Other Options
Zack Moss- 12%
Chuba Hubbard- 18%
Josh Jacobs- 6%
JK Dobbins- 1%
Fade
Jordan Mason- $6,700- 33%
At $6,700, the price is once again going to entice people to go to Jordan Mason. Last week, Mason had 77 rushing yards on 19 carries in a favorable matchup against the Rams. The issue with Mason is the same issue we had last week, which is that he has next to zero involvement in the passing game. Through three games, Mason has just four targets. With DraftKings being a full PPR site, Mason realistically is going to need 110 yards and 2 touchdowns just to get to a GPP value of 4x. It’s possible that he scores two touchdowns, but certainly not at the roster percentage that he’s currently at. The matchup is not a great one as this is a New England run defense that has been strong against Zach Charbonnet and Breece Hall over the last two weeks. If you look at cheaper running backs such as Chuba Hubbard, Zack Moss, or Aaron Jones and these are players who can reasonably expected to catch four or five passes this week.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper- $6,300- 7%
This is a must-win for the Browns this week after a 1-2 start. They’re taking on a Las Vegas Raiders team without Davante Adams that just gave up 122 yards to Diontae Johnson. Johnson is playing a very similar role to Cooper this season moving in all three positions to take advantage of matchups. For Las Vegas, Jakorian Bennett is one of the worst cornerbacks in football. The Browns, have not been able to run the ball consistently all season, and despite Cooper’s struggles the first two weeks of the season, he was able to bounce back nicely last week with 7 receptions for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Jakobi Meyers- $5,500- 6%
Meyers is not as popular as he should be due to the price. At $5,500 he’s in the price range where people are going to look at Diontae Johnson and George Pickens instead of Meyers. For Meyers, he should be lined up almost all game against Martin Emerson Jr who Malik Nabers torched last week as he had 8 receptions for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. With no Davante Adams, Meyers will be heavily targeted this week along with Brock Bowers as the Raiders are unlikely to be able to run the ball against the Browns' defense this week. Meyers is coming off of his best game of the season with 7 receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown as he saw 9 targets this past week.
Tee Higgins- $5,900- 6%
Tee Higgins’ first game of the season was a struggle for the receiver who missed the first two games of the year. For Higgins, no one is going to be more motivated than he will be to get back to putting up big games. Higgins is paying for a new contract after being franchise-tagged this offseason. Jaycee Horn is likely to shadow Ja’Marr Chase this week, which means that Higgins should see a lot of Mike Jackson who has struggled all season. Despite an injury-filled 2023, Higgins had four games of 22 DraftKings points or more last season. At $5,900 he has as much upside as similar players such as George Pickens or Diontae Johnson.
Other Options:
D.J. Moore- 8%
Tre Tucker- 6%
Justin Jefferson- 5%
Michael Wilson- 9%
Tight End
This is a week where so many people are going down to cheap tight ends such as Brenton Strange due to the Evan Engram injury, Mike Gesicki, Tommy Tremble, or Elijah Higgins. This can work, but is a risk.
If one of Brock Bowers or Dallas Goedert have a big game, you’re going to be behind to start the day as none of these players have the upside that Goedert or Bowers have. Of the four tight ends, Brenton Strange is probably the one to look at just based on the pure athletic profile of Strange who was a second-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Dallas Goedert- $5,100- 10%
Going back to Dallas Goedert this week after his big performance. Goedert was outstanding last week with 10 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown. No tight end has as much upside as Goedert this week. At $5,100 you can easily fit him in while going with a more balanced lineup this week. Between Goedert and Brock Bowers, the Browns' weakness is at the cornerback position which is why players such as Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers are preferred in that game.
Other Options:
Brenton Strange-12%
Zach Ertz- 4%
Travis Kelce- 2%
George Kittle-2%
