Slate Overview- Week 3 Thoughts
Week 3 is a much more interesting week than Week 2. Last week, things were a bit crazy as we saw a consolidation of roster percentages bundled with just a few players. This week, we do have a couple of players that are going to be severely under-priced due to injuries, but for the most part there are far more ways to build your roster in Week 3 compared to Week 2.
This week, you’re going to have salary to play with as there are a significant amount of injuries that will create value in players such as Cam Akers, Brandon Aiyuk, and potentially Diontae Johnson with the move of Andy Dalton starting for Carolina.
Roster construction is interesting this week, as it stands right now, about 35% of rosters will have Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Kyler Murray. What this does, is it creates value for the cheaper quarterbacks as well as some of the elite wide receivers such as CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, or Justin Jefferson as if you take one of those high quarterbacks it is extremely difficult to spend up at the receiver position. Therefore, a strategy could definitely be finding a cheap quarterback that you can get enough out of while also getting the upside of the elite receivers.
Key Injuries for Week 3
- The 49ers are a mess. San Francisco will be without Christian McCaffrey who is on IR, George Kittle with a hamstring, and Deebo Samuel Sr. with a calf injury. At $6,200, Brandon Aiyuk is going to be one of the most popular wide receivers on this slate. Jauan Jennings also could be a fine punt play at $4,100, but you likely don’t need to go that low on a week with significant value. Jordan Mason is interesting this week. DraftKings mispriced Mason this week at just $6,200. He’s too cheap given the amount of touches that he will get despite his lack of pass catching ability.
- The Rams offense is a mess with Cooper Kupp out this week and Puka Nacua on IR. If you had to punt the position, Jordan Whittington is likely the guy at $4,200 as he replaced Kupp after his injury. However, on 50% of the snaps last week, he did manage just 2 targets, but no receiver had more than 4 targets last week. With the Rams having a full week to game-plan a strategy, they could look at Whittington who will allow you to stack the rest of your lineup.
- Raheem Mostert seems unlikely to play this week. Last week we saw De’Von Achane have 29 touches. While Achane should be used heavily this week with Skylar Thompson getting the start for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, it’s unlikely he will have anywhere close to 29 touches again this week as Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like he will return after missing last week.
- A.J. Brown will miss this week with a hamstring injury. DeVonta Smith should be a strong cash game consideration after having 75 yards or more in each of his two games this season.
- Joe Mixon is doubtful this week, while Dameon Pierce has already been ruled out for Houston. This means Cam Akers should see a majority of the volume for the Texans. At the minimum price, Akers should be a highly rostered player this week.
- Ken Walker III is doubtful with an oblique injury. Zach Charbonnet will get the start again this week after finding the end zone last week to save his day. Charbonnet has been extremely unproductive as a runner in the games that he has been the primary back. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry in games with 14 carries or more. At $6,000 he is a little too expensive for how highly rostered he will be as Charbonnet has not been able to show that he can break the big plays necessary to be a GPP winner.
- Jordan Love is a game-time decision. While we likely are not going to target any Packers this week against a good Tennessee defense, if Love is unable to go, the Titans instantly become the top defense on the board. It seems more likely than not that Love will be out one more week as coach Matt LaFleur made comments that they’ll give him up until 90 minutes before the game to make the decision.
- Jordan Addison will miss this week once again. This should open the door for Jalen Nailor along with Justin Jefferson in a game that the Vikings will need to throw the ball heavily against this elite run-stopping unit in Houston.
Stacks
Top Stack
Jared Goff, Marvin Harrison Jr.., Jameson Williams
A lot of the love this week is going to go to Kyler Murray, as he’s looked outstanding to start the season. However, with Kyler Murray much like Lamar Jackson, my preference is to play them without a stack built around them. The reasoning for this is to simply capitalize on the weeks that they have the multi-touchdown rushing performance instead of relying on their arm on a week-to-week basis. Compared to 2023 standards, Jared Goff has started off slow throwing for just one touchdown in his first two games, but the talent and volume is clear for Detroit. Last week, we saw Goff throw the ball 55 times. The reason for pairing him with Jameson Williams is that Williams has seen more red zone work as he leads the NFL with five targets inside the 20 yard line. Getting a savings of $2,400 compared to St. Brown who was great last week, will allow you to spend up elsewhere.
For Harrison, after a slow Week 1 had a breakout game in Week 2. Harrison had 4 receptions for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns in a game that the Cardinals only threw the ball 21 times as they had a commanding lead against the Rams. He has big play potential every time he touches the field, and with the Lions, this is a team that has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so the way to beat them is through the air. Through two games, Detroit is allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers as they’ve allowed 110 yards or more to Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp.
Under the Radar Stacks
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Zay Flowers.
Lamb has gotten off to a similar start as the 2023 season where he saw his volume pick up after a slow start. He has been unable to build off of his high workload of the 2023 season as he is averaging just 4.5 receptions per game and 8.5 targets. This is almost certainly going to change throughout the course of the 2024 season, and with Lamb projected to be just 6% rostered is too low.
People have a fear of Baltimore’s defense, but that has not translated to reality in the 2024 season. Through two games, Baltimore has allowed 284 passing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. Last week, the Raiders were able to throw for 276 yards and a touchdown, while Davante Adams tore this defense apart with 9 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys have to be watching this and trying to imitate the Raiders gameplan.
Picking the right wide receiver is challenging in Baltimore. Whether it is Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers, or whether Mark Andrews can finally have a breakout performance in 2024, this is an offense that can be unpredictable. However, Flowers is the player to target this week. Flowers leads the team in both targets and red zone targets for the Ravens this season.
C.J. Stroud, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins
If there’s an under-the-radar game that could turn into a passing shootout, it could be the Texans vs Vikings this week. Minnesota is a team whose overall pass defense numbers look good, but a lot of that is because they faced the Giants in Week 1. Last week, this was a team that struggled mightily allowing 319 passing yards to Brock Purdy and the 49ers. With Stroud, we’ve yet to see that big 300+ passing yard performance that he had six times last season. With no Joe Mixon and no Dameon Pierce, this is a passing offense that will be leaned on heavily this week, and we may be seeing the emergence of Nico Collins as he has two consecutive 100+ performances despite the average passing yard totals from Stroud.
For Jefferson, the Vikings are going to have to throw the ball this week facing the league’s best run-stopping unit. Over the last 19 games, Houston has allowed just 3.1 yards-per-carry under DeMeco Ryans. Through two weeks, Houston’s pass defense has been completely untested. Facing Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, they’ve faced two of the worst passing attacks so far this year. How will this defense hold up against one of the league’s best receivers? Jefferson is projected to be less than 10% rostered which seems low for a player who has as much upside as any player on this slate.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Often times, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Lamar Jackson- $7,500- 11%
Lamar Jackson is always a difficult player to figure out week in and week out. At $7,500, he is the most expensive quarterback option on this slate, but there is enough value to be able to afford him based on some of the injury issues that exist around the league. For Jackson, we typically want to target him in close games where there is a significant pass rush as it will cause him to tuck the ball and run which is where most of his value comes from. With the offensive line issues for Baltimore and the elite pass rush for the Cowboys. We could see a similar game to Week 1 against the Chiefs where Jackson ran for 122 yards in that matchup.
Value Play
Skylar Thompson- $5,100 2%
Most people remember Skylar Thompson from his rookie season when he was thrown into action after Tua Tagovailoa in 2022. Thompson largely struggled in that four game sample size. However, fantasy players think the NFL organizations are completely incompetent. There is a reason that the Dolphins have kept Skylar Thompson as their backup for three years now despite his struggles in his first couple of starts. They see him in practice every day, and despite having a quarterback who has an injury history have chosen to keep the athletic quarterback. Thompson has a number of weapons to work with whether it is Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane. At $5,100, the bar is relatively low, and the stacking opportunities are high in a matchup where Seattle’s defense has looked good through two weeks, but have faced Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix. The Dolphins have chosen to cut Mike White, not drafted a quarterback the last two years, and could have brought in a more experienced quarterback like Ryan Tannehill but chose not to.
Andy Dalton- $4,800 0.6%
We saw this exact story last season where Andy Dalton came as a starter and the offense immediately improved. Last year, the Panthers threw the ball 58 times with Dalton in his single start and he threw for 361 yards with 2 touchdowns. Dave Canales got this job due to the work that he had revitalizing Baker Mayfield’s career, and having a competent, experienced quarterback in Dalton should at least provide a significant boost to this offense.
Other Options:
Kyler Murray- $6,900 12%
Caleb Williams- $5,600 4%
Running Back
High-End Play-
De’Von Achane- $7,000- 25%
Last week, De’Von Achane had 29 touches including 7 receptions. With Raheem Mostert out once again this week, Achane should be in line for a significant workload. It’s unlikely he will see 29 touches this week as Jeff Wilson Jr. will return from injury this week, but the Dolphins are going to want to get the ball into playmakers hands to make Thompson’s life easier in his first start in two seasons.
Alvin Kamara- $7,500-15%
Philadephia has issues on the defensive line. This was a defensive line that was a veteran unit over the last several seasons, and most of those players are now gone. Fletcher Cox and Haason Reddick both departed this offseason, and the young players on the defensive line have yet to establish an identity. Jalen Carter has regressed significantly through two weeks, and now they’re facing one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL through the start of the season as Klint Kubiak’s offense has been outstanding. With Kamara we previously always had to worry about Taysom Hill vulturing a touchdown in the red zone. Through two weeks, Hill does not have a touch or target in the red zone. This is Kamara’s offense in a favorable matchup.
Value Plays
D'Andre Swift- $5,600 1%
Offensively, the Bears are a mess right now. A lot of the blame is being put on the offensive line, but they’ve also faced two very difficult defenses through two games. This week, they get the benefit of facing one of the league’s worst run defenses through two weeks. The Colts have allowed two consecutive 150+ yard runners as Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon both topped that mark. The Bears have to at least try to establish the run and see if they can take some pressure off of Caleb Williams.
Fade
Jordan Mason- $6,300 38%
For Jordan Mason, 38% is a choice that is going to be one of the more difficult decisions for most people this week. For Mason, the biggest issue is the lack of involvement in the passing game. Through two weeks, he has just two receptions which for a full PPR site is a major issue as if he is not involved in the passing attack, the amount that he is going to need to do on the ground becomes so much higher. For a GPP, we really need to determine whether a player can get to 4x their salary. So if he needs to get to 25 points, he is going to need 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s possible, but at nearly 40% you need more of a guarantee that he will hit that.
Wide Receiver
Malik Nabers- $6,400- 15%
Cleveland’s defense struggled with speed last week as Brian Thomas Jr. had 94 yards last week. Nabers is one of the best rookie playmakers i n the NFL, and with the Giants expected to be struggling in this game, we should expect to continue to see a high target volume for Nabers who had 18 targets last week. The Giants are extremely limited with playmakers and will likely be unable to run the ball against one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL.
Tyreek Hill- $8,400- 2%
There’s no reason that Tyreek Hill should ever be 2% rostered regardless of who the quarterback is. This is similar to the Skylar Thompson section, but you can get the duo for $13,200 which if Thompson is at least competent could pay off significantly. Expect short quick throws to playmakers in space and to try to use their speed to their advantage.
Jerry Jeudy- $5,200- 2%
Something is wrong with Amari Cooper. Cooper leads the NFL with four drops through two games with no other wide receiver having more than two drops in the entire league. He’s not getting separation and dropping the ball which is a major issue. So much so, that the Browns turned their focus to Jeudy last week in the second-half as he had 5 receptions for 73 yards in that game. It’s entirely probable that Jeudy becomes the number one target for Deshaun Watson and the team should be able to move the ball however they want against this Giants secondary that is amongst the worst in the NFL.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba- $5,400- 6%
How often can you get a wide receiver who had 16 targets last week at just $5,400. The way to beat Miami’s defense is with the slot wide receiver as Kader Kohou has been abysmal so far this season, while the two outside corners are amongst the league’s best in Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller. If Smith-Njigba can get 7 or 8 catches he can easily hit value this week even without a touchdown. There’s risk here obviously, as Smith-Njigba had a slow Week 1 with just 2 targets in Week 1. The 2023 first-round pick should have a role likely somewhere in the middle, but at just 6% and underpriced, there’s a real chance he becomes a PPR machine over the course of the season.
Bottom of the Barrel-
You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary
Jalen Nailor-$4,400
Britain Covey- $3,200
Adam Thielen- $5,000
Jauan Jennings- $4,100
Jordan Whittington- $4,200
Tight End
Brock Bowers- $5,400- 10%
With Brock Bowers first home game, expect the team to feature the first-round pick in a game that Las Vegas should be able to do about whatever they want against the Panther’s defense. Through two weeks, Bowers has shown why he was a first-round pick as he is averaging 7.5 receptions for 78 yards per game. The tight end is a cyclical position, some years there are a number of low-end guys in the 3k range, some there are a lot of high-end options. This year, it seems to be swinging back to paying up for a high-end tight end as there have not been those low-end tight ends that have stepped up or shown potential.
Dallas Goedert- $4,600- 4%
With no A.J. Brown, last week it was all DeVonta Smith as Dallas Goedert had just 3 receptions for 38 yards. However, Goedert has shown that a few times per season Goedert will have a slate-breaking performance as he had three games last season where he had 16, 18, and 28 DraftKings points. If the Saints defense is able to slow down DeVonta Smith, Goedert could have a big day this week.
