Ultimately, watching football and playing fantasy football is about having fun. Yes, we're all competitive and put time, money, and effort into optimizing our chances to win our leagues, but we should never lose sight of the principal reason we love this hobby -- to watch amazing athletes do things we couldn't do on our best days.
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So, no one will blame you for coveting De'Von Achaneafter the jaw-dropping highlight reel he delivered for us all in his 2023 rookie season.
Miami DolphinsRB De’Von Achane rookie season highlights. What a year he had. pic.twitter.com/C8CipRR10m
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) January 19, 2024
As a fantasy asset, he was among the best values of the season.
- ADP = RB44
- 997 Yards from Scrimmage
- 11 Touchdowns
- Year End Fantasy Ranking (0.5 PPR) = RB24
- Year End Ranking, Points per Game = RB4
Achane was a dynamic RB1 who helped you win a half dozen weeks when he was on the field. But we can't lose sight of that caveat...he was great WHEN HE WAS ON THE FIELD. Unfortunately, for as dynamic as he was, the preseason fears about his size and durability being a limiting factor proved true.
A Major Disconnect between ADP and Our Rankings
Presumably, one of the reasons you subscribe to Footballguys (and we truly thank you for it) is that you value our analysis and believe we can provide edges that other sites cannot. We acknowledge that everyone makes mistakes, but the hope is we'll make fewer mistakes and have more bold, outlier calls that help you tip the scales.
Among this year's high-end fantasy players, our staff consensus view on Achane may be the most dissimilar to industry consensus.
- Consensus ADP
- 8th among RBs
- 20th player overall
- Footballguys Staff Rankings
- 15th among RBs
- 39th player overall
As most of you know, our rankings are driven by dozens of active staff members. Having 20-plus analysts weighing in often helps smooth out any outliers that one or two of us may have in our individual rankings. I mention this to illustrate how our disconnect with the industry on Achane is broad-based.
- Only one staff member -- Sigmund Bloom, has Achane above his ADP (RB7)
- Five staff members rank in in the Top 10, including Bloom
- Almost everyone else ranks him as a fantasy RB2 (I rank him RB19)
- Matt Waldman ranks him RB26 (a high-end RB3)
Why the Disconnect? Because Extreme Outliers Drove Achane's Success
Watching Achane was a delight, as we already discussed. And no one that's seen his film can credibly argue he's not talented or won't have an important place in the Dolphins offense. However, we must also acknowledge that how he delivered fantasy value was historically unusual and, therefore, unlikely to be repeated.
Outlier 1: He averaged an all-time best 7.8 yards per carry
Among all NFL running backs in the Super Bowl era, no one has ever averaged more yards per carry (minimum 100 carries) than Achane did last year, with an average of 7.8 yards per carry.
Top 30 Seasons, RB Yards per Rush Attempt (Minimum: 100 Carries)
| Rank | Player | Year | Team | Rush | YPR | Car-Best(Y/N) | NextSeason | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De'Von Achane | 2023 | MIA | 103 | 7.8 | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 2 | Mercury Morris | 1973 | MIA | 149 | 6.4 | No | DNQ | |
| 3 | Jamaal Charles | 2010 | KAN | 230 | 6.4 | Yes | DNQ | |
| 4 | Rashaad Penny | 2021 | SEA | 119 | 6.3 | Yes | DNQ | |
| 5 | Gale Sayers | 1968 | CHI | 138 | 6.2 | Yes | 4.4 | -29.0% |
| 6 | Barry Sanders | 1997 | DET | 335 | 6.1 | Yes | 4.3 | -29.5% |
| 7 | Alvin Kamara | 2017 | NOR | 120 | 6.1 | Yes | 4.6 | -24.6% |
| 8 | O.J. Simpson | 1973 | BUF | 332 | 6.0 | Yes | 4.2 | -30.0% |
| 9 | Hokie Gajan | 1984 | NOR | 102 | 6.0 | Yes | DNQ | |
| 10 | Ted McKnight | 1978 | KAN | 104 | 6.0 | Yes | 4.9 | -18.3% |
| 11 | Adrian Peterson | 2012 | MIN | 348 | 6.0 | Yes | 4.5 | -25.0% |
| 12 | C.J. Spiller | 2012 | BUF | 207 | 6.0 | Yes | 4.6 | -23.3% |
| 13 | J.K. Dobbins | 2020 | BAL | 134 | 6.0 | Yes | DNQ | |
| 14 | Jerious Norwood | 2007 | ATL | 103 | 6.0 | No | DNQ | |
| 15 | Felix Jones | 2009 | DAL | 116 | 5.9 | Yes | 4.3 | -27.1% |
| 16 | Jamaal Charles | 2009 | KAN | 190 | 5.9 | No | 6.4 | 8.5% |
| 17 | Napoleon Kaufman | 1996 | OAK | 150 | 5.8 | Yes | 4.8 | -17.2% |
| 18 | Mike Gillislee | 2016 | BUF | 101 | 5.7 | Yes | 3.7 | -35.1% |
| 19 | Barry Sanders | 1994 | DET | 331 | 5.7 | No | 4.8 | -15.8% |
| 20 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | JAX | 166 | 5.7 | Yes | 4.6 | -19.3% |
| 21 | Khalil Herbert | 2022 | CHI | 129 | 5.7 | Yes | 4.6 | -19.3% |
| 22 | Thomas Rawls | 2015 | SEA | 147 | 5.6 | Yes | 3.2 | -42.9% |
| 23 | Raheem Mostert | 2019 | SFO | 137 | 5.6 | Yes | 5.0 | -10.7% |
| 24 | Adrian Peterson | 2007 | MIN | 238 | 5.6 | No | 4.8 | -14.3% |
| 25 | Derrick Ward | 2008 | NYG | 182 | 5.6 | Yes | 3.6 | -35.7% |
| 26 | Nick Chubb | 2020 | CLE | 190 | 5.6 | Yes | 5.5 | -1.8% |
| 27 | Franco Harris | 1972 | PIT | 188 | 5.6 | Yes | 3.7 | -33.9% |
| 28 | James Brooks | 1989 | CIN | 221 | 5.6 | Yes | 5.1 | -8.9% |
| 29 | Chris Johnson | 2009 | TEN | 358 | 5.6 | Yes | 4.3 | -23.2% |
| 30 | Brandon Jacobs | 2010 | NYG | 147 | 5.6 | Yes | 3.8 | -32.1% |
| Average (Overall) | 4.5 | -22.1% |
This is a busy table, but you're looking at the 30 best single-season YPR in the Super Bowl era among qualified backs (minimum: 100 carries). As mentioned, Achane set a new NFL record last year. We looked at how each of these running backs fared in the following season and whether their impressive YPR ended up being a career-best.
- Six of the 29 running backs failed to qualify the following year (fewer than 100 carries)
- On average, these record-setters averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt the following season
- On average, their YPR fell by 22.1% from the prior season
To see if any particular cohort bucked the trend, here are some segmented averages:
Cohort Averages for Top 30 YPR Single Seasons
| Cohort | NextSeason | Decline |
|---|---|---|
| Average (Overall) | 4.5 | -22.1% |
| Average (200+ Carries) | 4.5 | -22.0% |
| Average (Sub 200 Carries) | 4.5 | -22.6% |
| Average (Sub 150 Carries) | 4.3 | -25.6% |
| Average (6+ YPR) | 4.5 | -25.7% |
| Average (Sub 6 YPR) | 4.5 | -20.6% |
The consistency is shocking. The workhorses averaged 4.5 yards per carry the following year and saw their average decline by 22%. The sub-200 carry backs experienced nearly the same decline. The two "worst" cohorts were the running backs who averaged more than 6 yards per carry, as they saw their average decline by nearly 26%, ending up at the same 4.5 yards per carry level as the broader group. The sub-150 carry subset (which Achane is also a part of) averaged 4.3 yards per carry the following season; that's the only subset that averaged less than 4.5 yards.
You can tell yourself any story you want to, but ultimately, RBs with a season like Achane's near-universally see their per-carry metrics normalize the following season. The very definition of an unrepeatable outlier.