Ultimately, watching football and playing fantasy football is about having fun. Yes, we're all competitive and put time, money, and effort into optimizing our chances to win our leagues, but we should never lose sight of the principal reason we love this hobby -- to watch amazing athletes do things we couldn't do on our best days.

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So, no one will blame you for coveting De'Von Achaneafter the jaw-dropping highlight reel he delivered for us all in his 2023 rookie season. 

Miami DolphinsRB De’Von Achane rookie season highlights. What a year he had. pic.twitter.com/C8CipRR10m

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) January 19, 2024

As a fantasy asset, he was among the best values of the season.

• ADP = RB44
• 997 Yards from Scrimmage
• 11 Touchdowns
• Year End Fantasy Ranking (0.5 PPR) = RB24
• Year End Ranking, Points per Game = RB4

Achane was a dynamic RB1 who helped you win a half dozen weeks when he was on the field. But we can't lose sight of that caveat...he was great WHEN HE WAS ON THE FIELD. Unfortunately, for as dynamic as he was, the preseason fears about his size and durability being a limiting factor proved true. 

A Major Disconnect between ADP and Our Rankings

Presumably, one of the reasons you subscribe to Footballguys (and we truly thank you for it) is that you value our analysis and believe we can provide edges that other sites cannot. We acknowledge that everyone makes mistakes, but the hope is we'll make fewer mistakes and have more bold, outlier calls that help you tip the scales.

Among this year's high-end fantasy players, our staff consensus view on Achane may be the most dissimilar to industry consensus. 

• Consensus ADP
  • 8th among RBs
  • 20th player overall
• Footballguys Staff Rankings
  • 15th among RBs
  • 39th player overall

As most of you know, our rankings are driven by dozens of active staff members. Having 20-plus analysts weighing in often helps smooth out any outliers that one or two of us may have in our individual rankings. I mention this to illustrate how our disconnect with the industry on Achane is broad-based.

• Only one staff member -- Sigmund Bloom, has Achane above his ADP (RB7)
• Five staff members rank in in the Top 10, including Bloom
• Almost everyone else ranks him as a fantasy RB2 (I rank him RB19)
• Matt Waldman ranks him RB26 (a high-end RB3)

Why the Disconnect? Because Extreme Outliers Drove Achane's Success

Watching Achane was a delight, as we already discussed. And no one that's seen his film can credibly argue he's not talented or won't have an important place in the Dolphins offense. However, we must also acknowledge that how he delivered fantasy value was historically unusual and, therefore, unlikely to be repeated.

Outlier 1: He averaged an all-time best 7.8 yards per carry

Among all NFL running backs in the Super Bowl era, no one has ever averaged more yards per carry (minimum 100 carries) than Achane did last year, with an average of 7.8 yards per carry.

Top 30 Seasons, RB Yards per Rush Attempt (Minimum: 100 Carries)

This is a busy table, but you're looking at the 30 best single-season YPR in the Super Bowl era among qualified backs (minimum: 100 carries). As mentioned, Achane set a new NFL record last year. We looked at how each of these running backs fared in the following season and whether their impressive YPR ended up being a career-best.

• Six of the 29 running backs failed to qualify the following year (fewer than 100 carries)
• On average, these record-setters averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt the following season
• On average, their YPR fell by 22.1% from the prior season

To see if any particular cohort bucked the trend, here are some segmented averages:

Cohort Averages for Top 30 YPR Single Seasons

The consistency is shocking. The workhorses averaged 4.5 yards per carry the following year and saw their average decline by 22%. The sub-200 carry backs experienced nearly the same decline. The two "worst" cohorts were the running backs who averaged more than 6 yards per carry, as they saw their average decline by nearly 26%, ending up at the same 4.5 yards per carry level as the broader group. The sub-150 carry subset (which Achane is also a part of) averaged 4.3 yards per carry the following season; that's the only subset that averaged less than 4.5 yards.

You can tell yourself any story you want to, but ultimately, RBs with a season like Achane's near-universally see their per-carry metrics normalize the following season. The very definition of an unrepeatable outlier. 

Outlier 2: He scored 11 times on 130 touches

Achane scored on 8.5% of his touches last year, which is an astounding number. However, we need historical context to fully appreciate how absurd that conversion rate was and how it's not repeatable. We looked at the following:

• Running backs with at least 120 touches (rushes + receptions)
• Who scored at least 10 touchdowns

In the Super Bowl era, there have been 544 instances in 58 seasons, an average of 9.4 times per season. Among those 544 instances, we sorted by touchdown conversion rate (TDs divided by touches), and Achane ranks 10th ALL TIME.

All-Time TD Conversion Rate, Running Backs, Super Bowl Era (Minimum: 120 Touches, 10 Touchdowns)

Expecting Achane to approach that kind of touchdown efficiency again belies nearly 60 years of NFL history. We should also note that his teammate, Raheem Mostert, joins him in the top 10 with an even more absurd 9.0% touchdown rate. But more on that later. 

Outlier 3: He averaged 1.38 fantasy points per touch

Using our baseline scoring format, we looked at the same cohort of running backs and computed their fantasy points per touch:

• Running backs with at least 120 touches (rushes + receptions)
• Who scored at least 10 touchdowns
• Scoring system
  • 1 point per 10 rushing yards
  • 1 point per 10 receiving yards
  • 0.5 points per reception
  • 6 points per rushing or receiving touchdowns

All-Time FPTs per Touch, Running Backs, Super Bowl Era (Minimum: 120 Touches, 10 Touchdowns)

Less than two running backs average more than 1 point per touch, on average, in a season. Achane averaged nearly 40% more than that. If he can average 1 point per touch in 2024, which would be a massive downtick in efficiency, it would still be a Herculean achievement. 

So You're Discounting Achane for Being an All-Time Great Playmaker?

Some of you are reading this and thinking, "Aren't you explaining why he should be a top-10 draft pick?" While it's tempting to skim these lists and see Achane among a litany of former All-Pros and fantasy greats, we need to remember that those great players had two things going for them:

• Longevity
• Durability

Achane only touched the ball 130 times last year. That's a minuscule sample size, making his outlier performances harder to trust. The great backs you see on this list, like Adrian Peterson or Barry Sanders, were high-volume workhorses for years. Even though they never came close to matching these per-touch rates again, their workloads were so large it ultimately didn't matter.

Achane's Workload HAS to Increase to Justify his ADP

If you think what we saw from De'Von Achanewas just the tip of the iceberg and that he'll become a much larger part of the Dolphins' offense in 2024, then you're fine selecting him as your RB1. However, I don't see that as a likely outcome for the following reasons:

• Raheem Mostert re-signed -- Yes, Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and had a troubling injury history early in his career. But Mostert led the NFL with 21 touchdowns last season, touched the ball nearly twice as many times, had a much higher snap share when both he and Achane were active, and signed a guaranteed extension for the 2025 season. He's also been a picture of durability since joining the Dolphins. Mostert averaged more fantasy points per game last year (RB3 vs. Achane at RB4) despite having twice the workload.

• The Dolphins drafted Jaylen Wright -- Matt Waldman graded Wright as the No. 4 tailback in the class, per his Rookie Scouting Portfolio, both pre- and post-draft. In his pre-draft evaluation, he compared Wright to Raheem Mostert, and it would seem the Dolphins' brain trust agreed. Matt's analysis of the situation: 

• • Mostert is an excellent gap runner who still has elite speed. Achane is speedy, shifty, and creative. Wright's comp in the RSP was Mostert, and he will be expected to succeed Mostert as the lead back and Achane as the change of pace. Wilson is a steady and versatile contributor in all facets of the position. Brooks has great power, good vision, and strong footwork but lacks a top gear. He should get the nod over Ahmed and Webb if cost/injuries aren't a factor. Wright has lead RB upside in fantasy (peak years in the top 12) but the way Miami may share the load could translate to midrange RB2 value on a more consistent basis. Wright's expertise meshes well with the Miami system and won't require much maturation as a decision-maker to thrive. 
• Achane has to prove he can handle a larger workload -- He measured 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds at the NFL Combine and ran a 4.32 forty at that size. He's reportedly added more muscle since college and may be close to 200 pounds now. Whether true or not, the NFL record books are not filled with fantasy studs who weighed less than 190 pounds entering the league. In fact, the list is pretty much limited to Warrick Dunn, James Brooks, Stump Mitchell, and Napolean Kaufman. Achane didn't quell those fears last year when he injured his knee in Week 5 and was placed on Injured Reserve. To his credit, he returned after the minimum required time and played in the final six games. However, upon his return he was the RB19 on a per-game basis. 

• The offensive line will take a step back -- The Dolphins lost center Connor Williams, who graded out as a top-5 run blocker among all linemen last season, per PFF. His replacement, Aaron Brewer, isn't in the same tier. Additionally, they lost guard Robert Hunt and are going to replace him with either Robert Jones, Liam Eichenberg, or Jack Driscoll. PFF ranks the Dolphins line 18th (after ranking 9th last year), and our own Matt Bitonti grades the Dolphins as the 29th-ranked run-blocking unit. 

De'Von Achane Stats

De'Von Achane 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

De'Von Achane was fantasy gold dust last year. Anyone who took a flier on the explosive rookie due to his college highlights and the enticing landing spot was heartily rewarded. In most leagues, where he went undrafted, he was one of the hottest early free-agent targets. If you had him on your roster, you likely felt great about the decision despite the fact that he missed six games with a knee injury. However, his fantasy success was driven by multiple outlier metrics that are not repeatable, no matter how talented he is. As we've shown, even the league's all-time best runners couldn't sustain those kinds of metrics and needed larger workloads to deliver consistent fantasy RB1 value.

The good news is that in today's NFL landscape, there are fewer true workhorses. The bar for fantasy relevance has fallen considerably, meaning Achane should be a trustworthy fantasy RB2 even if we see the expected per-touch regression. The problem is that too many fantasy managers view last year as his downside and are letting their imaginations run wild, picturing what Achane's fantasy numbers might look like if he gets 230 touches instead of his veteran teammate, Raheem Mostert. But I believe that Achane's size and play style, combined with the Dolphins' deep roster and plug-and-play philosophy, make a higher per-game workload unlikely. Without a 30%-50% increase in touches, Achane is going to fall well short of his top-8 fantasy ADP. If your league somehow lets him fall into the 3rd or 4th round, then all bets are off. However, you're more likely better off letting someone else take him at the end of the first round or early in the second round while you bet on a more sustainable fantasy profile.

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