Derrick Henry is a Baltimore Raven

Henry is one of the best running backs of his generation, and he's been a fixture at or near the top of the league's rushing totals for most of his career. He's become synonymous with the Tennessee Titans, but like many great players before him, he'll finish his career elsewhere after signing a 2-year, $16 million contract to become the Baltimore Ravens' new feature back. Fantasy managers are embracing the change, and Henry is being drafted 8th among running backs and 20th overall. 

Should you pay that price on draft day? To answer that question, we need to assess the following suppositions:

1. Henry remains a productive player.
2. The Ravens' offense is suited to his play style.
3. The Ravens' offensive line is an asset.
4. He'll stay a workhorse despite his age and new team.

1) Henry Remains Productive

Henry is 30 years old and entering his ninth season, causing some to worry he's about to hit some age or workload-related cliff. While the cumulative workload takes a toll on every NFL player, it's foolhardy to draw a hard line in the sand based on someone's age or career touches. 

Derrick Henry Career Stats

Henry averaged 4.2 yards per rush last season, tied for the worst mark of his career. But everything else looked good, including his 12 rushing touchdowns. Don't let the yards-per-rush average lead you to the wrong conclusion; that metric likely says nothing about his underlying skills and speaks more to the Titans' offensive line falling apart last season (more on that later). 

If you want more confirmation that Henry remains a top producer, consider the following:

• 280 rushing attempts (#1 among NFL RBs)
• 1,167 rushing yards (#2)
• 12 rushing touchdowns (#5)
• 2.0 yards before contact (#28 -- His line did him no favors)
• 2.1 yards after contact (#12)
• 23 broken tackles (#6)
• 33% breakaway percentage (#6)

Despite this statistical evidence, some of you still think, "Yes, but he's 30 years old." Fair enough, if his age is offputting, it probably doesn't matter what I say to the contrary. But let me leave you with one more data point: there have been fifty-one (51) 1,000-yard rushing seasons by 30-plus-year-old running backs in the modern era.

2) The Ravens' Offense is Well Suited to His Play Style

Last year, the Ravens changed offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Todd Monken. Many expected Monken's arrival would lead to changes in the Ravens' offensive approach, possibly leading to a more conventional pass/run ratio. But a year later, we now know that the Ravens' offensive identity under Monken looks very similar to what they had previously.

Ravens Pass and Rush Data, and NFL Team Rankings (2019-2023)

As long as John Harbaugh is the head coach and Lamar Jackson is under center, the Ravens will be a run-heavy team that needs a potent ground attack. 

3) The Offensive Line May be an Asset

Historically, the Ravens' offensive line has been better than the Titans.

PFF Year-End Offensive Line Rankings (2019-2023)

Isolating run-blocking, the Ravens remain ahead, but the gap narrows.

PFF Year-End Run Blocking Rankings (2019-2023)

However, prior performance isn't necessarily indicative of future performance, and opinions are strongly divided on the quality of this year's offensive line.

• Footballguys' own Matt Bitonti ranks the Ravens 9th overall and 8th against the run
• Pro Football Focus ranks them 25th

The issue is that Baltimore will have three new starters, and opinions vary on who will win the open jobs. Even the Ravens' own beat writers acknowledge it's an unsettled situation. 

"The Ravens must replace starters at both guard spots and right tackle, which will be a major storyline this summer. [Tyler] Linderbaum made the Pro Bowl in his second season and is the anchor up front from his center position. [Ronnie] Stanley enters training camp healthier than he's been since 2020 and believes he can return to being a premier left tackle. The other three spots are up for grabs. [Andrew] Vorhees (left guard), [Ben] Cleveland (right guard), and [Roger] Rosengarten (right tackle) may be the favorites. But [Daniel] Faalele, [Josh] Jones, and [Malaesala] Aumavae-Laulu are challenging for starting spots, while Mekari is a valuable backup at all five positions and can start if needed."

Ultimately, I trust Bitonti's analysis which gives me confidence. And offensive line coach Joe D'Alessandris is highly respected throughout the league.

4) Will He Remain a Workhorse?

This is where things get messy. Although the Ravens have averaged 547 rushing attempts per game over the last five seasons, we need to account for Lamar Jackson's presence. To do that, I looked at the Titans' running back usage versus the Ravens' running back usage. 

Titans Running Back Usage (2019-2023)

Ravens Running Back Usage (2019-2023)

Comparison:

You may be surprised to see that the Titans gave their running backs 17% more carries and amassed more than 200 more rushing yards. The good news is that both teams averaged close to 15 rushing touchdowns, which bodes well for Henry's sustaining a double-digit scoring pace.

The other problem relates to the Ravens' propensity to spread the ball around. 

Ravens Running Backs (2019-2023), Rushing Stats and % of Carries

As you can see, only Gus Edwards (2023) and Mark Ingram II (2019) got 50% of the running back carries, whereas Derrick Henry is used to receiving 65% of the workload. This is THE pivotal question you need to answer before drafting Henry. If you think the Ravens will change their stripes and give Henry 60% or more of the available carries, then his top-10 ranking is justified. But there's a non-zero chance he'll be the No. 1 but get somewhere closer to 55% of the workload, implying approximately 200 rushes versus our consensus estimate that puts him at 250 carries. 

OC Monken spoke about his plans for Henry in May, but his comments are open to interpretation:

• "I know this: If [Henry] carries it 300 times, we're having a helluva year," Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday after Organized Team Activities.
• "It means we're running it a lot. It means we're up in games. We want him to finish, [and] we want him to be the closer."
• "First and foremost, like every player, we want him to make it through the season. It's a long season – 17 games," Monken said. "So, we'll see how that goes. I mean, he's been so durable."
• "I thought we did a good job last year of rotating the backs. I mean, Gus [Edwards] was powerful, but we split the reps," Monken said. "Now, we had Keaton, who came on, and we had Justice [Hill] and those guys, but I still anticipate the same – of using all of our backs [and] trying to put them in the best position to be successful."

Everything looks good when you read Monken call Henry the closer or mention 300 carries. But then you see his comments about how hard it is to make it through an entire season and that Monken anticipates using all the backs on his roster, just as he did in 2023, and you start to wonder. 

Derrick Henry 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

You can see from my projections that I'm leaning toward Henry redefining how the Ravens utilize their backfield. I don't believe they would have signed him, nor would he have signed with them, if there wasn't a mutual understanding that he has another season or two left as an impactful, high-volume runner. However, this assumption is not a given. If Henry ends up with a 200-220 carry pace, it'll be very hard for him to deliver RB1 value, particularly since he offers next to nothing as a receiver. But don't overthink this. Henry is a better player, even at 30 years old, than Mark Ingram II or Gus Edwards were at their best in Baltimore. As long as he stays healthy, you should bet on 1,000-plus rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns. He almost certainly doesn't have the upside to be a top-3 player anymore, but in today's NFL, with most teams utilizing committees, he doesn't have to match his prior peak to justify his ADP.

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