Giveaway Winners
Below are the giveaway winners from last week. Check your email tonight/Saturday morning! We will be running a six-person contest this week where the winner wins $500.
Unfortunately, this will need to be postponed until next week. Multiple people are having issues receiving the invite from FanDuel, so in fairness to them we will try again next week.
- Ziggy_brady
- Bigstork
- TheAttack
- Northpole
- Tamazanetz- I
Week 19 Recap
I admittedly have zero idea how the Primary Cash Lineup did last week, but I suspect not well, considering there were some key players that went off that I didn’t have in my lineup. I was in Nevada over the weekend and completely forgot that FanDuel is still not legal in that state. Therefore, I didn’t enter any contests other than the Survivor contest that I had pre-entered prior to my flight. If you played, let me know how you did on Twitter: https://x.com/devinaknotts. Love the interaction and hearing feedback from you guys there.
As a PSA, we do not track Playoff results against the overall record. I play significantly less in the playoffs and play small GPP-type stuff, as cash games on these small slates are often random. I'll still play them, but far less than I normally do, as the edge is difficult.
I’m going to assume that you likely needed either Ladd McConkey or one of Houston or Los Angeles Rams defenses to have success, as they absolutely dominated last week with 24 and 23 FanDuel points. McConkey was a game wrecker even in a loss as he had 197 yards and a touchdown at just $7,100. Choosing Saquon Barkley over Derrick Henry was a mistake, as Henry dominated with 186 yards and 2 touchdowns while Barkley had the yards with 119, he failed to find the end-zone finishing with just 16.3.
The Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson fade was a strong one last week. Nacua struggled as he had just 7.6 FanDuel points as the entire Rams and Vikings passing offenses struggled last week.
Total points scored-102.8
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,400- 22.3
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $7,600-15.3
- RB Joe Mixon, HOU, $7,500- 19.4
- WR Jalen McMillan, TB, $6,400- 5.1
- WR Rashod Bateman, BAL, $6,100- 9.4
- WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, $5,400- 4.9
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300- 6.1
- Flex RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,600- 16.3
- TD Washington Commanders, $3,600- 4.0
Injuries Create Opportunity
- David Montgomery will return this week, and FanDuel completely screwed up his price. At the minimum price, he’s a must-play this week.
- Zay Flowers looks more doubtful than questionable as he hasn’t practiced in the first two sessions of the week.
Week 20: Matchups Are Crucial
This is one of the most interesting short slates that we’ve seen in a while. It should create an advantage if it plays out how the matchups dictate. You arguably have five of the six best run defenses in the NFL playing on an eight-team slate. Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, Kansas City, and Houston all have elite run-stopping units, which, if you’re paying attention, should eliminate James Cook, Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson Jr, Kyren Williams, and Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt in cash games. In GPPs, anything goes, but I would still avoid any running back facing Baltimore and Kansas City.
The problem is that it only leaves us with three teams in favorable or better matchups: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. With Montgomery, FanDuel completely screwed up his pricing, as he is at just $4,000 and should be nearly 100% rostered this week. If, for some reason, he’s not the first 100% rostered player that I can remember on FanDuel, it would be shocking and indicate that some people simply aren’t paying attention.
Where it gets interesting is that you’re going to have a massive number of people who are against playing both Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in the same lineup, as it limits what you can do at other positions. However, the savings you get from going down to a Kyren Williams (who I do like this week) or Joe Mixon is just not enough to justify the floor of Henry and Barkley. There will be some people who are looking at Jahmyr Gibbs (more on that below), and that seems like a massive mistake unless Montgomery just isn’t healthy and it’s all a smoke screen. Let people pay up for Puka Nacua who runs a significant amount of risk considering the issues the Rams have right now throwing the ball. Let people try to convince themselves that this low-end running back could work out, and that all they need to do is score a touchdown.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 25.0 | $8,500 | Detroit has one of the worst secondaries left in this playoff field. The path for Washington is pretty simple. They're not going to be able to run the ball against Detroit's defense and are going to have to have a high-scoring game. The only path that logically makes any level of sense is to put their hopes in Jayden Daniels. Daniels had 13 carries last week, and with the season on the line, we can expect him to be utilized heavily in the running game once again. There is risk here that Detroit just blows out Washington, but with the NFC North struggling, that seems less likely than it was just last week. |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | 24.9 | $8,700 | The Bills secondary has struggled over the second half of the season. Buffalo is allowing 256 passing yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt, which is second in the NFL. In their first meeting, Baltimore threw the ball just 18 times, which does pose a risk as if they're able to have another dominant win running the ball, they'll gladly do that without throwing, but it would seem that Buffalo could counter to that game plan by creating an advantageous matchup to throw the ball. Christian Benford is a fantastic corner, but the rest of the secondary are liabilities for Buffalo. Particularly at safety, as Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp have both struggled in coverage, which should open up opportunities for Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud | 14.3 | $7,200 | Running backs are going to take up a majority of salary this week as there are eight teams and four of the best run defenses in the NFL. Therefore, you're going to want to save money. C.J. Stroud played well last week, throwing for 282 yards and a touchdown, but was most encouraging is the rushing ability. Stroud has been notoriously unwilling to run the ball despite having the ability to do so. However, in the biggest games, he has shown that he is more than capable of running the ball. Whether it is his college playoff game against Georgia or last week when he ran for 42 yards. The Texans are extremely unlikely to be able to run the ball this week against the Chiefs, who have amongst the league's best run defenses, and therefore will need to rely heavily on Stroud. In their first meeting back in Week 16, Stroud threw for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns and did run for 23 yards in that game. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | David Montgomery | 13.2 | 4000 | This is just a pricing error by FanDuel. Start Montgomery as a free square this week at $4k as he returns from injury. I'll break down the matchup further in the Jahmyr Gibbs section, but it really doesn't matter as at $4k he provides some much-needed salary relief. |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | 19.7 | 9300 | It's hard to avoid Barkley this week when all you have to do is look at his prior matchup against the Rams and be intrigued by his 302 total yards and 2 touchdown performance. Barkley has 100 rushing yards or more in 10 of his last 12 games, and while touchdowns have been inconsistent, he does have 15 on the season, including six games where he scored two touchdowns. The Rams defensive line should once again be overmatched by the Eagles offensive line, and while the safeties for the Rams are strong run-stoppers, tackling Barkley in space is as difficult as any player in the NFL. |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | 18.1 | 9600 | Choosing between Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley is going to be incredibly difficult if you can't fit both in. While Jahyr Gibbs is going to be popular, there's concern there regarding the upside if David Montgomery is back due to his touches drastically falling off. For Henry, with no Zay Flowers, we saw the Ravens feature him heavily as he had 26 carries for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Henry has 130 rushing yards or more in each of his last four games while scoring five touchdowns in those four games. Facing a Buffalo defense that he has already dominated once this season, running for 199 yards and a touchdown and adding a receiving touchdown, the Ravens should be in a position to utilize him once again this week. |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | 15.7 | 7700 | The matchup is a difficult one for Kyren Williams as the Eagles have one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL. However, unless you spend up with two of Barkley, Gibbs, Henry, you're going to have to take a running back in a bad matchup this week. Williams' usage continues to just be so high in the red zone as he now has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games, and with Cooper Kupp struggling, we've seen an uptick in his receiving upside as he has three receptions in each of his last two games. In a 27-9 game, the Rams didn't need to utilize Williams as much as they did from Weeks 15-17, but in a close game, it is reasonable to expect him to have 20+ carries, especially with Blake Corum out for the postseason. |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 21.8 | 8900 | Jahmyr Gibbs is likely going to be the second-most popular running back after David Montgomery, as people are going to look at the Detroit backfield and say that they can get both running backs for a combined $12,900, and they'll almost assuredly get 2x their salary as they've averaged well over 25 FanDuel points between the two. It doesn't really work that way in reality. If David Montgomery is 90% rostered like he should be, then you really need to evaluate Gibbs as his own player. At $8,900, he's a slight discount over Henry and Barkley, but you can easily find that salary some other way this week. With Barkley and Henry, you're getting two running backs who are likely to get 20+ carries, while Gibbs only averaged 16 total touches per game when Montgomery was in the lineup. Yes, he has breakaway ability, but $8,900 for a player who may only see 15-20 touches is just too low in comparison to the other two running backs. There's a chance that he could see 20+ if Montgomery is just a smoke screen and he's only used on short-yardage type plays, but that seems unlikely given that he's not even questionable for this week. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Xavier Worthy | 11.7 | 6300 | This is a misprice by FanDuel as Worthy has seen his role increase significantly over his last three games. Excluding a Week 18 game in which Xavier Worthy played just one snap, he had 29 targets in his three prior games and has established himself as the number one receiver in Kansas City. With Travis Kelce having the worst season in his career, and DeAndre Hopkins unable to consistently make an impact, this is an offense that is going to need to continue to rely on the rookie first-round pick. At $6,300, you're likely going to get nine or more targets and with Worthy he's one of the fastest players in the NFL so all it takes is one and he could very easily have a big play that changes the game. |
| 2 | Jameson Williams | 13 | 6,700 | In terms of upside in the 6k range, Jameson Williams leads the group. Williams has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, but what is most intriguing about him is that he has seven or more targets in six of his last seven games. At 17 yards per catch, he's one of the best deep ball receivers in the NFL and a tremendous value at $6,700. While other players' roles are impacted by the return of David Montgomery, Williams likely isn't, as the Lions are still going to want to take those downfield shots this week. |
| 3 | Terry McLaurin | 14.3 | 7,600 | $7,600 for McLaurin just seems a bit too cheap. The weakness of this Lions defense is their secondary as Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson have struggled for most of the season. While Robertson played outstanding in Week 18 against the Vikings, this is a defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points and most yards per game since Carlton Davis went out earlier this season. McLaurin is matchup-dependent, as he's able to excel in everything except some of the league's most difficult matchups. Whether he faces Arnold or Robertson, he should have an advantage in a pass-heavy game script for the Commanders this week. McLaurin has 10 targets and 12 targets over his last two games and has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven contests. |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 19.2 | 8,600 | There's not an easy path for the Rams this week taking on arguably the league's best defense in Philadelphia. There simply is not an easy way to attack this team, but given the expected game script, the Rams may be forced into a pass-heavy approach. With Cooper Kupp only seeing one target last week and not having more than three in each of his last four games, this is an offense that is going to need Nacua to have a big game this week. He's likely going to be popular, as he will be the top option for the spend-up at wide rceiver lineup builds, but he does come with more risk than spending up at the running back as we saw last week where Nacua only had 44 yards with 27 of those coming on the first drive. |
| 5 | Khalil Shakir | 10.5 | 6,100 | Every week for Shakir continues to be the same story. He remains popular as he's cheap, is an easy stacking partner with Josh Allen, and there's a perception that he's safe and a player who is not going to kill your lineup. However, in his last three games, he has six targets in each of them and is a player who is averaging 10.8 yards per catch on the season. That math obviously makes it difficult to have a big ceiling game unless the targets increase, the yards per catch increase, or he has a 100% catch rate like he had last week. The catch rate is likely a number that is not expected, so if he only has four or five catches as he did in Weeks 16 and 17, he's going to have a difficult day unless he finds the end zone which he has only done four times all year. |
| 6 | Dyami Brown | 5.9 | 5,100 | If you need to find salary savings at the wide receiver position, you could chase after Dyami Brown this week. We've largely been waiting all season for a Dyami Brown breakout performance, and we finally got it last week as the receiver had five receptions for 89 yards and he now had 50 yards or more in two of his last three games. With Noah Brown out for the year, one of Olamide Zaccheaus and Brown have produced almost every week, but picking between them can be difficult. Brown has the size and better matchup as he should see a lot of Terrion Arnold, while Zaccheaus out of the slot will likely see Brian Branch who is far better in coverage. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Isaiah Likely | 7.4 | 5100 | With Zay Flowers unlikely to play, Likely is going to be a premier target for Lamar Jackson this week. While the Ravens had a low-volume passing offense last week, Likely led the team with 53 yards and is likely the most athletic player that the Ravens have in terms of physicality and speed as they're desperately lacking at the wide receiver position. The key here is the price. At $5,100, he's about $1,000 cheaper than some of the higher-end tight ends, and the Ravens have targeted him in the red zone this season as he has 13 red zone targets which is just four less than Mark Andrews. |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta | 10.5 | 6000 | We've seen Sam LaPorta's usage pick up over the last five games. Over his last five games, LaPorta has at least 50 yards in four of them and at least seven targets in all five games. The only downside for LaPorta is that with David Montgomery back, there are so many mouths to feed for Detroit, especially with how poor the Commanders run defense has been this season. |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | 10.1 | 6,500 | If you find yourself with extra salary, going up to Kelce this week is not the worst idea. It seems unlikely that any tight end has the upside in terms of role that Kelce has this week. Kelce came out on Thursday and said he could retire if the Chiefs win a third straight Super Bowl. Kelce has had a poor season compared to his standards, but the volume continues to be there. Kelce is averaging 8.8 targets per game, and while he's more of a catch-and-fall type receiver rather than someone who can gain significant yards after the catch, he's still a player that the Chiefs trust in the red zone despite only having three touchdowns all season. Kelce has 27 red zone targets, which leads all tight ends this season. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Kansas City | 13.1 | 4,500 | Targeting C.J. Stroud on the road has had significantly more success than when he is at home. It's going to be around 20 degrees on Saturday for this game, and Stroud struggled in their first meeting, throwing two interceptions while being sacked twice. With Steve Spagnuolo's defensive scheme, the Chiefs should have a significant advantage here against a poor offensive line outside of Laremy Tunsil. |
| 2 | Philadelphia | 11.4 | 4,700 | Philadelphia's defense gets to face the struggling Matthew Stafford this week. Stafford is averaging just 167 passing yards per game over his last four games, and with Cooper Kupp largely out of the picture, the Rams have very limited options this week at the receiver position. Meanwhile, the Eagles have amongst the league's best defenses, as they have very few holes and have the ability to overwhelm poor offensive lines. With Alaric Jackson questionable with a chest injury, the Eagles should be able to take advantage this week. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH and GPP Lineup Saturday-Sunday - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.3)
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,400
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,300
- RB David Montgomery, DET, $4,000
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,600
- WR Xavier Worthy, KC, $6,300
- WR Dyami Brown, WAS, $5,100
- TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, $5,100
- Flex RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,600
- TD Kansas City, $4,500
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Alternative GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.1)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,400
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,300
- RB David Montgomery, DET, $4,000
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $6,700
- WR Xavier Worthy, KC, $6,300
- WR Dyami Brown, WAS, $5,100
- TE Sam LaPorta, DET, $6,000
- Flex RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,600
- TD Kansas City, $4,500
