Article PSA-
First and foremost, apologies for getting this out so late. I’ve been traveling, and then last night got a little out of hand with the Buckeyes victory last night.
I also owe you guys a giveaway that I promised. It’s going to be choosing five other people for a DFS contest with a chance to win $500 and maybe some prizes for anyone who beats me. I realized that because I am in Las Vegas, where you can edit FanDuel lineups but not create or enter new contests, I am unable to make it this week. I’ll set something up for next week.
To enter the giveaway for next week, please enter your email address and FanDuel ID below.
Week 18 Recap
Week 18 turned out to be the best week of the season for the Primary Cash Lineup, as it finishes the year 10-8. Last week’s lineup was the top overall cash game lineup from what I was able to find across all 50 50/50’s that I track, as it easily won, finishing 25+ points ahead of second place last week. The key was the double stack of Bijan and Drake London, as 13% of rosters had Bijan Robinson while 51% had London, and almost none had the stack. The fade of the Will Shipley scenario as this was something that I was struggling with heading into the week. Fading these players who are promoted into roles is almost always going to give you success in Week 18.
Total points scored-201.18
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $7,600- 27.88
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,800- 46.5
- RB Michael Carter, ARI, $5,800- 13.9
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000- 38.7
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jax, $8,000- 16.8
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $4,200- 11.3
- TE Sam LaPorta, DET, $6,000- 9.8
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $9,200- 33.3
- TD New York Giants, $3,200- 3.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Christian Watson is out for the year with a torn ACL. This will open the door for Dontayvion Wicks, as well as provide additional targets to Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs and maybe an extra deep shot to Jayden Reed. Wicks and Kraft at the two players who get the biggest bump with how they’re underpriced this week.
- Zay Flowers will miss this week with a knee injury. This will consolidate the targets to Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely, as it seems difficult to envision Tylan Wallace in any role outside of his deep shot type role which the Ravens aren’t going to take more of because of Flowers being out.
- Justice Hill should be good to return for Baltimore. This hurts Derrick Henry a little bit, as Hill should get some of the passing work which Henry caught two passes in each of his last three games.
Week 19- This Is A Fun Slate
Unlike last year, this is going to be a fun six game slate across three different days. There are plenty of ways that you can build your lineup, whether that is to spend up with some elite wide receivers or running backs or take a more balanced approach with a significant number of mid-tier options. What most people are going to do, is likely spend down at two of the three wide receiver positions, so that they can then fit Puka Nacua into their lineup. This is the player you need to determine whether you start him or fade him this week. The price is crazy at $8,700 when you factor in that Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson, and Saquon Barkley who are far safer are not that much more. Personally, I understand the appeal of Nacua, as the floor is high, but the upside you’re losing compared to those other elite players seems to be too much for me personally as Nacua only has four touchdowns all season.
At quarterback, the answer is pretty clear at least for me in cash which is to play Jayden Daniels. He’s in a different league facing a Buccaneers team that you’re going to have to throw the ball against.
At running back, Bucky Irving and Joe Mixon are must-starts based on their price. Mixon has been bad as of late, but a lot of that is due to matchups facing Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore. He’s still the same player that he was early on this year, and should have 100 yard upside as the Texans will look to run the ball against the Chargers who have struggled at times against the run.
This leaves the wide receiver position, and I've already indicated that I'm unlikely to play Nacua. I certainly don't blame anyone who wants to, but going cheaper at the wide receiver position allows me to avoid risks at other positions. By getting players who have touchdown upside such as Jalen McMillan or Dontayvion Wicks, these guys are players who will certainly have less yardage than Nacua, but if Nacua doesn't score, they could catch up fairly quickly.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 23.6 | $8,400 | This is a pretty clear number one quarterback this week. The Commanders are unlikely to be able to run the ball against the Buccaneers defense and therefore are going to entirely turn to Jayden Daniels. Tampa Bay is allowing the third most passing yards this season and could be without Jamel Dean after already losing Christian Izien and Jordan Whitehead in recent weeks. This is already one of the worst secondaries in football, and Daniels should be able to pick this defense apart with all of the injuries that they're facing. Daniels has run for 60 yards or more in four of his last five games that he has finished while throwing multiple touchdowns in all five games. |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 23.6 | $8,900 | Josh Allen is facing a defense that has allowed two 400 yard games in their last five games as Joe Burrow and Jameis Winston torched this defense. While Patrick Surtain II is the best cornerback in football, the Broncos don't have enough around him to stop the other players on the Bills. This is a defense that sets up much better against a team that has one elite wide receiver and then doesn't know where to go once Surtain shuts them down. The Bills don't have a 1,000 yard receiver therefore Allen should be able to pick on the matchups while still utilizing his legs to pull off a win this week. |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 24.4 | $8,700 | In their first two meetings this season, Lamar Jackson had just 15.8 and 21.5 FanDuel points against Pittsburgh. At $8,700, the risk is just higher than it needs to be compared to Allen and Daniels. Pittsburgh's secondary has been an issue this year, and with Zay Flowers out, the Ravens could turn to more of Jackson's legs this week. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Bucky Irving | 17.8 | 7600 | Rachaad White's role has been completely diminished since he fumbled in Weeks 15 and 16. White did not see a carry last week despite being active. At $7,600, Irving is simply too cheap as you're getting a player who has 17 or mor etouches in each of his last four games. Irving has been great all season averaging 5.4 yards per carry, while having multiple catches in 12 of his last 13 games. Facing a Washington defense that is the worst run defense on this slate, Irving is a clear must play this week. |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | 17.2 | 7500 | Mixon is a challenging one to figure out. This is a player who has seven 100 yard rushing performances this season, but has struggled as of late. Mixon is averaging just 35 rushing yards over his last three games, but that needs to be taken into context as he was facing three of the prmier run defenses in the NFL in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Miami. This week, he gets a Chargers defense that has been nowhere close to that quality as four opposing running backs have run for over 100 yards this season. There are not a lot of value options at the running back position, but Mixon if he hits his ceiling game could be an underpriced key to winning this week. |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | 16.8 | 8600 | In terms of getting a floor player, Kyren Williams has about as high of a floor as a running back under the $9,000 price point. Over his last six games, Williams has average 91.5 rushing yards per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game as he's scored a touchdown in five of those six games. While Minnesota's run defense has been great this season, they are coming off of Jahmyr Gibbs who had 46.5 FanDuel points against this defense last season. Williams has 79 red zone touches which leads the NFL this season. |
| 4 | J.K. Dobbins | 14.0 | 7100 | At $7,100, Dobbins is a high floor player with a low upside due to the overall offensive output of the Chargers. Since coming back from injury, he has 18 and 19 carries against New England and Baltimore and was able to average 69.5 yards over those two games. The matchup is a difficult one as Houston has a good run defense. If you need to fit a third running back into your lineup, Dobbins is a cheap way to spend up elsewhere. While he had over 100 yards performances in his first two games of the season, those were against Carolina and Las Vegas. Since then he's averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and has not topped 100 yards since that hot start to the season. |
| 5 | Saquon Barkley | 19.8 | 9600 | With everyone spending up at wide receiver with Puka Nacua, looking at Saquon could be a significant advantage this week. He's going to have some motivation after he was rested last week falling short of the record, but he's also facing a Green Bay defense that is far easier to run the ball against than throw. In their first meeting, Barkley had 109 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns while catching a touchdown as well. He's a mismatch for this defense that heavily relies on their safeties to stop the run. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Dontayvion Wicks | 8.2 | 5400 | Finding value on this slate is almost impossible. At $5,400, Wicks will see a massive role increase with Christian Watson out for the year with a torn ACL. Wicks has at least 40 yards in each of his last two games and was the player that stepped up last season when Christian Watson was out. You're going to need to go cheap somewhere, and Wicks should have the biggest role sub 6k of any player this week. WIcks leads the team in red zone targets this season which should only increase with Watson out. |
| 2 | Rashod Bateman | 11.1 | 6,100 | With no Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman is underpriced. Bateman had a big game last week with 5 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown last week, but what is most encouraging is the eight targets that he had which was the highest that he had all season. Bateman saw 71% of the snaps and it would have been more if Bateman did not leave early due to injury. This week, he should see near 100% of snaps this week against a Pittsburgh secondary that has been one of the worst in the NFL as both Donte Jackson and Joey Porter Jr. have both struggled this season. |
| 3 | Khalil Shakir | 11 | 6,200 | Khalil Shakir is one of the most popular player every week. However, he's struggled over the last several weeks as he's failed to top 40 yards in four of his last five games. Shakir is a great stacking option for Josh Allen in a GPP format, but for a player who failed to top 1,000 yards, has just four touchdowns on the season, but yet the projection models continue to love him. Shakir is a player who has greatly benefitted from injuries to Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and Amari Cooper. All of those guys are back this week. For me this week, Shakir is fine if he fits into your lineup. If you can find a way to upgrade to McMillan or even Sutton, that would be preferable as it could give you a massive advantage if Shakir struggles. |
| 4 | Jalen McMillan | 11.5 | 6,400 | McMillan has benefitted tremendously from Mike Evans coming back from injury. McMillan over his last five games has at least 50 yards, has scored a touchdown in every game and has seven total touchdowns in those five games. At $6,400, to get a player who leads the team over the last five games in red zone targets. If you can afford him over Shakir, use the extra money to get the differentiation with McMillan, but if not this is not a position you need to overly stress about between Shakir and McMillan. |
| 5 | Courtland Sutton | 12.5 | 7,100 | Sutton has been incredibly productive this season. His floor is high, as over the last six games, he has 50 yards or more, nine targets or more, and at least a touchdown. The Bills have struggled in recent weeks as they've allowed 90 yards or more to a receiver in four of their last five games as Kayson Boutte, Puka Nacua, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all topped the 95 yards. |
| 6 | Puka Nacua | 19.7 | 8,700 | Minnesota has struggled against wide receivers all season. On the year, Minnesota has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, as eight wide receivers this season have topped 100 yards. Nacua has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this season. Since returning from injury, Nacua has topped 90 yards in seven of his ten games. If there is a criticism of Nacua, it is that you're paying a lot for a player who has just three receiving touchdowns all season, as the Rams go run-heavy once they're in the red zone. At $8,700 he's going to be one of the most popular players on this slate as Cooper Kupp has been a non-factor recently, but he basically needs a touchdown in order to hit value at that price. However, there's also a possibility that value on normal weeks doesn't really apply to this week. On a six game slate, a normal 130 point target may not need to be the case. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Mark Andrews | 10.6 | 6200 | Mark Andrews started the season slowly but ultimately has finished the season with a career-high in touchdowns, 50 or more yards in each of his last two games, and with Zay Flowers out could be in line for additional work this week. The worry here, similar to Freiermuth below is that the strength of the Steelers' defense is their pass rush and their safeties which ultimately kill tight end production. In the first two meetings this season, Andrews has 37 yards and a touchdown, and 22 yards against Pittsburgh. When starting a tight-end, ultimately we're chasing touchdowns which Andrews has the highest touchdown equity on this slate, and if you can afford him could be a game winner this week. |
| 2 | Tucker Kraft | 8.3 | 5,300 | With no Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft could see an increase in role this week. At $5,300, you're getting a player who was tied for four in red zone touchdowns. We're looking for upside at tight ends this week for a cheap tight end and it really depends on Freiermuth vs Kraft. The Eagles have allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their last six games. |
| 3 | Pat Freiermuth | 8.8 | 5,500 | Freiermuth is going to be popular this week give that he has 8 and 11 targets over the last two games. However, with Kyle Hamilton at safety, he's locked up Pat Freiermuth in their first two games this season. Freirmuth has just three targets and two targets in their two games this season against Baltimore. Even last season he had just two targets against the Ravens in his lone matchup. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Washington | 7.1 | 3,600 | Picking a defense is difficult this week. However, this could be a game in which the Commanders force Baker Mayfield into throwing the ball and Mayfield at times has had interception issues as he threw 16 this season. |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 3,500 | They're the cheapest defense and this is the third time they're playing Baltimore. They've played them tough throughout both matchups even though the second matchup did get out of hand late as Baltimore finished with a 34-17 victory. There's not much upside here as Lamar Jackson has only thrown four interceptions all year, but they're cheap if you don't believe in any of these defenses. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup Saturday-Monday - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 124.5)
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,400
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $7,600
- RB Joe Mixon, HOU, $7,500
- WR Jalen McMillan, TB, $6,400
- WR Rashod Bateman, BAL, $6,100
- WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, $5,400
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300
- Flex RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,600
- TD Washington Commanders, $3,600
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 110.1)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,700
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $7,600
- RB Joe Mixon, HOU, $7,500
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, 6,200
- WR Rashod Bateman, BAL, $6,100
- WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, $5,400
- TE Mark Andrews, BAL, $6,200
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,600
- TD Washington, $3,600