Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update 6:30 AM EST
Currently no change to the Primary Cash Lineup. I did want to provide some additional thoughts on this lineup.
I fully expect Blake Corum to be popular, but I'm almost 100% certain that Michael Carter is the better play. He's the more established running back, is a much better receiver, has a better offense around him, and most importantly is not going to be missing three of his offensive linemen this week. If Corum has a big day, it would be somewhat surprising, and there's not even a guarantee that he plays the entire game as Ronnie Rivers could also see some playing time this week if the Rams get down, or if they've seen enough from Corum to feel confident in their backup running back.
Where I'm somewhat worried is the Eagles and whether Will Shipley is going to be the primary ball carrier for them this week. At $4,100, if he sees significant playing time, he's going to be a player that we otherwise would have wanted to have. However, I keep going back to 2023 Philadelphia where Kenneth Gainwell had seven carries, Rashaad Penny had six carries, and Boston Scott had three carries. The Eagles are in a complete do not care about this game as they're starter Tanner McKee insead of Kenny Pickett.
If there is any breaking news, I mentioned it yesterday, but I will be on the road heading to Green Bay to see the Bears vs Packers. I'll certainly be able to update this article via my phone, but it may not be as immediate as normal this week. I don't really anticipate anything major breaking, I don't believe we're going to get any Philadelphia news unless Shipley is inactive due to not being cleared from the protocol. In that scenario, Michael Carter would still be slightly favored in my projections compared to Kenneth Gainwell who is $200 cheaper than Carter.
We will be running this article throughout the playoffs. Check back next week as we will be running a giveaway as a thank you for your support of this article this season
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $7,600
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,800
- RB Michael Carter, ARI, $5,800
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jax, $8,000
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $4,200
- TE Sam LaPorta, DET, $6,000
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $9,200
- TD New York Giants, $3,200
Week 17 Recap
As great as Week 16 was, Week 17 was brutal as the Primary Cash Lineup goes to 9-8. Just a horrible second half of the season after a great start to the year. Over the course of the offseason, I’m going to need to look at everything and try to figure out what went wrong. At first glance, it seems like the pricing boxed me in for certain lineups focusing too much on targets rather than production thinking touchdowns would normalize for players like Calvin Ridley and Hunter Henry, but they just didn’t come. Putting up 126.6 last week was right in line with projections, but it just didn’t hit on some of the upside players that were needed on this slate.
Week 17 was one of those slates that I just had a feeling was going to be a terrible slate all week, and that’s exactly how it ended up. The biggest mistake was trusting the Davante Adams narrative despite him being injured. That then forced Raheem Blackshear into the lineup and while Blackshear did see a majority of the work in Carolina, the reality is that I expected him to have a much bigger role the passing game where he was non-existent.
Brock Bowers despite having 11.1 FanDuel points was disappointing, as Zach Ertz dominated at 25% rostered as he had 22.2 which crushed any chance of a Jayden Daniels heroic comeback despite Daniels’ best effort with 36 FanDuel points. Finally, taking the Browns over the Raiders was just the wrong side. The Browns had 4 sacks and were fine, but the Raiders putting up 12 points at $3,200 while being 80% rostered made life difficult.
Week 17 Lineup- 126.58 scored
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,500-35.78
- RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, $4,500- 2.0
- RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, $5,800- 11.8
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,500- 20.4
- WR Josh Downs, IND, $6,100- 3.7
- WR Davante Adams, NYJ, $8,100- 7.2
- TE Brock Bowers, LVR, $7,600- 11.1
- Flex Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400- 29.6
- TD Cleveland, $3,500- 5.0
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Tampa Bay (vs NO) – 29.0 points
- Atlanta (vs CAR) – 27.5 points
- Green Bay (vs CHI) – 25.0 points
- Indianapolis (vs JAX) – 25.0 points
Week 18 Slate Thoughts- Don’t Get Cute
Week 18 is always a weird one. It’s normally incredibly unpredictable trying to determine which teams are still playing hard compared to those that are looking ahead to the offseason. Having been in this industry as long as I have, there are several traps that you should avoid in Week 18.
- Over-valuing player incentives. Coaches are typically going to game plan towards getting a player an incentive. The offensive line is not going to block any harder for a running back who needs a certain yardage number to get to his incentive. These are fun narratives on a week where there are otherwise very little to talk about, but the reality is that player x needs 150 yards to get a $1M bonus, just isn’t that much more likely to happen. Certain people will build entire articles around player incentives, and I’m sure we’ve done it here at Footballguys as well, but don’t go crazy with the incentives here. Team and NFL records are a different story. These are things that the organization can take pride in, and will try to accomplish.
- Thinking teams that “need-to-win” are guarantees compared to those that have nothing to play for. Every year, we see at least one team in a "must-win" game come out on the wrong side of this. There's no guarantee that just because a team has to win for the playoffs
- Just having too much confidence in a week where players are unlikely to fight through even the smallest injury. If a player takes a big hit, cramps, or goes into the medical tent for any reason, they’re likely done for the day.
So, building a lineup this week is a tricky one. I’m really only looking to take a chance on one player at most in a lineup this week. You can go wild with a stars and scrubs lineup with many different bench guys who are getting opportunities due to rest, but often it is a mistake. There’s normally not more than one or two players who are elevated due to resting that actually make a difference in Week 18. The reason for this is that replacing your lead running back is often not a one for one swap. The coaching staff may look at two or three different running backs and get them playing time, or from a wide receiver perspective, call plays that are not necessarily the same plays as when the elite wide receiver is in the lineup. Just because player x is playing the role normally filled by an elite wide receiver, that does not mean that the production and targets will just shift directly to that player.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- James Conner and Trey Benson are both out for the Cardinals. This will make Michael Carter the starter for the Cardinals. We saw Carter last week have a significant role as he had 13 carries for 70 yards while also catching two passes for the Cardinals.
- Several teams are resting their starters this week. Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia, and potentially Houston and LA Chargers are going to be resting their players. These are teams that there could be value created from their backups, but one’s that you need to be careful with. For Kansas City, this is a complete stay-away. Los Angeles has a couple of interesting pieces as Jimmy Garoppolo has shown he’s at least competent, while Philadelphia, Houston and the Chargers are likely stay away’s as well unless a Philadelphia running back were to be ruled out.
- One key injury in Philadelphia is Will Shipley. If he were to not be cleared due to a concussion, Kenneth Gainwell would become a top four cash game play ahead of Blake Corum this week.
- Kendre Miller is out for the Saints, as they’ll start Clyde Edwards-Helaire against the Buccaneers elite run stopping unit. This is probably just a stay-away as Jamaal Williams will likely also have a role this week.
- Joe Flacco will once again start for Indianapolis. This should help the receivers once again as Flacco threw for over 300 yards last week.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Sam Darnold | 21.8 | $8,100 | Darnold is too cheap in this one, as the Vikings are in a must-win game against Detroit. Detroit continues to have one of the best run defenses in the NFL as they have only allowed one 100-yard rushing all season, which was in the midst of several key starters getting injured. Now, this is a much improved run defense which has forced teams to throw against the Lions. This is a team that is a complete mess at corner with the injury to Carlton Davis. Terrion Arnold has had to stop into the number one role, while Amik Robertson has had to move from the inside to the outstide while safety Brian Branch has moved to the slot. What this has done is that it has created issues for the Lions in the secondary as they have the worst outside corner duo in the NFL combined with a backup safety due to Branch sliding down into the box. Darnold is coming off of a ridiculous 377 yard 3-touchdown performance last week, and should look to build off of it if the Vikings want any chance to win this game. |
| 2 | Joe Flacco | 15.9 | $7,000 | Taking Joe Flacco against the abysmal Jaguars in what could be his final game as an NFL starter seems somewhat fitting. Flacco dominated their first matchup as he threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns. You probably don't need to go down to Flacco on this week where there is a lot of value given all of the starters that are sitting, but if you do, he is a solid option this week given the Jaguars have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most passing yards per game on the season. |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | 19.7 | $7,600 | If you're into contract incentives in Week 18, Kyler Murray needs 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown for a $750,000 bonus. Back in Week 5, prior to the 49ers run defense completely imploding, Murray ran for 83 yards and a touchdown. Most player incentives are purely non-sense, as coaches aren't going to game plan for players to get their incentives, but a quarterback incentivized by running the ball slightly more is something that seems reasonable. Murray was great last week despite a 13-9 defeat as he threw the ball 48 times for 321 yards and a touchdown while also running for 32 yards and should have had the game-winning touchdown to Trey McBride after it hit the tight end in the helmet. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | 21.5 | 9200 | While Bijan Robinson's four-game 22+ carry streak was broken last week, he still had 17 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns. In a must-win game this week he gets to face off against the league-worst Carolina Panthers who have now allowed a 100-yard rusher in seven of their last eight games. Expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Robinson this week. |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 22.4 | 8800 | The matchup is not ideal as Gibbs is taking on the Vikings, but with Gibbs you get a player who has over 100 total yards in each of his last three games, over 100 rushing in his last two, and has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. The price is not great at $8.8k facing a defense that is allowing the third fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. However, the Lions will be motivated in this one, and with no David Montgomery Gibbs should once again see 20+ touches this week. In their first meeting, Gibbs had the best day of any running back against the Vikings all season as he had 116 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns while also adding 44 receiving yards. |
| 3 | Michael Carter | 14.0 | 5800 | With no James Conner or Trey Benson, the Cardinals will turn to Michael Carter this week. Carter had a solid performance last week against the Rams rushing for 70 yards on 13 carries while filling in for the injured Conner. Carter has also shown that he's a more than capable receiver as he has caught seven passes in the two games that he has played this season, while being a reliable pass catching back during his time with the Jets. At $5,800, Carter will get to face a 49ers defense that has been one of the worst against the run in recent weeks as they've allowed 100 yard rushers in five of their last six games. |
| 4 | Blake Corum | 14.5 | 5500 | With no Kyren Williams this week, Blake Corum should see as much volume as he can handle. The third-round rookie has yet to show a lot in his first season as he's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the year. While 18-20 carries is certainly possible for the running back who had over 20 carries 14 times throughout his college career, the issue is that the offensive output of the Rams could be low with Jimmy Garoppolo starting along with a bunch of backup wide receivers. Catching passes is not something that Corum excels in, which could also be a problem if the game script gets out of hand that they turn to Ronnie Rivers.The Rams are also a mess on the offensive line. They're going to be without both tackles, after they've already had two left tackles go on IR earlier this season. They'll also be without right guard Kevin Dotson which overall this could just be a mess of a game even with how cheap Corum is this week. |
| 5 | Carson Steele | 8.9 | 4300 | If you wanted to take a chance on Carson Steele at just $4,300, you would be able to load up on other positions. The rookie should get an extended look this week which we saw him have success early this season when he had 17 carries for 72 yards. The floor is extremely low for Steele, as this is a game that the Chiefs seemingly have zero interest in competing as they're resting nearly their entire team. Kansas City likely wants to avoid having Cincinnati make the playoffs as it is much more advantageous for them if the Broncos make the playoffs given the odds being much higher that the Bengals could put together a run to compete for a Super Bowl. |
| 6 | Will Shipley | 9.2 | 4100 | Will Shipley is going to be popular, but unless Kenneth Gainwell also misses, this just seems like a missed opportunity here. If Gainwell plays, Shipley even at $4,100 becomes a tough play as there are even less guaranteed touches than Raheem Blackshear last week. The matchup is a good one, as the Eagles are facing a Giants defense that are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Giants have allowed 90 rushing yards and two touchdowns in each of the last two games as Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson both dominated this defense. The issue here is that this is not the same Eagles offensive line that we're used to seeing. Landon Dickerson, Jordan Mailata, and Lane Johnson are all expected to miss this week which is going to create a mess of an offensive line of three players who have not played together in a game before. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Mike Evans | 18.1 | 8900 | Mike Evans needs 85 yards to get to 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season, which is something that everyone in the Buccaneers locker room is keenly aware of. Since returning from injury, Evans has been one of the best receivers in football, as he's averaging 97 receiving yards in those six games. This week, he takes on a Saints team that no longer has Marshon Lattimore who has given Evans trouble throughout his career. This is a game where the Buccaneers need to win in order to clinch a playoff spot, and targeting Evans to do so is a likely scenario this week. The only downside here is that he's expensive at $8,900, and whether you want to fit him in or two of the elite running backs is a difficult choice. |
| 2 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 19.7 | 8,000 | Brian Thomas Jr.. continues to impress in his rookie season. Despite having Mac Jones as his quarterback, Thomas has been able to dominate as he is the only true receiving option left for the Jaguars. Thomas has ten or more targets in each of his last five games, and has topped 75 yards in six straight games while scoring five touchdowns over those six games. He's basically a cheaper version of Mike Evans just with a little bit more risk as he doesn't have the pedigree and has a significant downgrade at quarterback compared to Baker Mayfield. |
| 3 | Drake London | 14.5 | 7,000 | Michael Penix Jr. locked onto London on Sunday Night, and the pricing here is not reflective of the 13 targets that Penix had last week. To get a player at $7,000 who is the number one receiving option while taking on a Panthers pass defense that was abysmal last week without Jaycee Horn is something that is too cheap. London has a nice floor here even if he is unable to duplicate the 100 yard performance we saw last week. London has 50 yards or more in each of his last seven games and we've seen rookie quarterbacks lock on to their number one option as they're still learning progressions. |
| 4 | Jordan Whittington | 8.5 | 4,200 | If you're looking at a Rams player, it likely should be a pass catcher who Jimmy Garoppolo can get the ball out quickly to. While DeMarcus Robinson and TuTu Atwell appear to be likely to play, this seems like a game where the Rams don't even want to risk those players getting injured. Ultimately on this slate, you're going to need to decide where you want to take an unknown risk this week, whether that's at the running back or receiver position, and I tend to lean more towards the receiver position just because it is less catastrophic given the increased volatility at the position. Whittington is a sixth-round rookie who the team likes and had a role when both Kupp and Nacua were out before. |
| 5 | Jameson Williams | 13.1 | 6,500 | Williams is risky here, but at $6,500 is one of the better values on this slate. Williams has 24 or more FanDuel points and each of his last two games, and while the risk is certainly there as he's a big play receiver, he does have 10 or more FanDuel points in four straight games. If he can get 10 points this week, that's ultimately not going to kill your lineup while still having the upside of a player that you need to have in your lineup. Detroit is going to need to be able to throw the ball against Minnesota this week as the Vikings have an excellent run defense, but have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. |
| 6 | Jauan Jennings | 12.6 | 6,800 | Expect Jennings to be popular this week as the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel Sr. and likely George Kittle. Jennings is also going to be boosted by the fact that his prop numbers at Sportsbooks is all the way up to 79.5 receiving yards this week which is one of the highest on this slate and certainly the highest for a player that is under $7k. However, there's risk here. With Joshua Dobbs starting at quarterback, we really don't know how this offense is going to perform. Dobbs is a capable passer, but certainly not one that you feel great about as he averaged just 189 passing yards per game last season. There's a scenario where the 49ers continue to try to showcase first-round rookie Rickie Pearsall like they did last week where the receiver had 10 targets last week for 141 yards. |
| 7 | Adam Thielen | 12.2 | 6,400 | If Thielen ends up retiring at the end of this season, he's certainly finishing his career on a high-note. Having scored three touchdowns over the last two games, Thielen has been a big part of Bryce Young's second-half growth. Coming off of a 110 yard, 2 touchdown performance last week, Thielen's price is still very affordable at just $6,400. With the Panthers unable to run the ball with no Chuba Hubbard, expect them to take a pass-heavy approach this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 12.7 | 7,300 | If you can afford to spend up to either Brock Bowers or Trey McBride it likely makes sense to do so this week, as the low-end options at the position are pretty bleak. If Bowers can catch nine or more passes this week, he will have set the single-season record for most passes caught by a tight end breaking Zach Ertz' 116 in 2018. With the Raiders having very little else to play for, it would seem that they would want to capture this milestone for growth purposes and a positive headline for coach Antonio Pierce as he heads into an uncertain offseason. The only downside with Bowers is that he only has four touchdowns this season. If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Chargers will be locked into the sixth-seed and the chances that they will at least partially rest their starters will increase. |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.3 | 6,000 | LaPorta has had an injury filled season, but is starting to look healthy. LaPorta has at least seven targets in four straight games, has 50 yards or more in three of those four games, and has scored a touchdown in two straight games. Getting any players in this Detroit vs Minnesota game is never a bad thing as this should be the highest scoring game of the week. |
| 3 | Zach Ertz | 8.2 | 5,400 | There are very few reliable options at the tight end position on this slate. At $5,400, you're getting a player who had 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Commanders are still motivated to win this week, and with Terry McLaurin drawing a difficult matchup against Daron Bland, this could be a similar game as last week where A.J. Terrell Jr. shut down McLaurin only for Daniels to go to Ertz. |
| 4 | Tucker Kraft | 8.3 | 5,100 | Why is Tucker Kraft so cheap on this slate? While he has been touchdown dependent, he has scored seven or more FanDuel points in five of his last six games, and has at least 30 yards in five straight games. Green Bay wants to win this game to avoid having to go to Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs as Tampa Bay or Los Angeles are much better matchups for the Packers. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | New York Giants | 8.9 | 3,200 | The one thing that the Giants have done really well this season is rush the passer. On the year, they have 43 sacks this season which is the ninth-most in the NFL. At $3,200, they're facing a Eagles team that is benching three of their star offensive lineman as both tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson along with guard Landon DIckerson are all expected to miss this week. |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 12 | 3,900 | Seattle has nothing to play for this week, but they're playing the Rams who eliminated them based on tiebreaker scenarios. This likely is going to cause some frustration from the Seahawks locker room in coach Mike Macdonald's first season. They're adament that they are not going to be resting players this week and still have a lot of pride to play for, which if they do, will pay off as they're facing one of the most offensively inept teams that we've seen over the last several seasons. The Rams will be without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. They will also be without left tackle Alaric Jackson, right tackle Rob Havensteinn, and right guard Kevin Dotson. This is a team that was already down two left tackles on IR, so they're likely going to need to sign players off the practice squad to start at offensive line this week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.6)
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $7,600
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,800
- RB Michael Carter, ARI, $5,800
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jax, $8,000
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $4,200
- TE Sam LaPorta, DET, $6,000
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $9,200
- TD New York Giants, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 136.1
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Joe Flacco, IND, $7,000
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,800
- RB Michael Carter, ARI, $5,800
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $8,000
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $6,500
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $4,200
- TE Brock Bowers, LVR, $7,300
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $9,200
- TD New York Giants, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.7)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $8,100
- RB Blake Corum, LAR, 5,500
- RB Michael Carter, ARI, $5,800
- WR TuTu Atwell, LAR, $4,700
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,500
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $8,000
- TE Sam LaPorta, DET, 6,000
- Flex Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,200
- TD New York Giants, $3,200
