Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update 10:32 AM EST
This remains a horrendous slate. It’s certainly the worst of the year so far this season. The big question continues to be whether to play a running back from Carolina whether it is Raheem Blackshear or Mike Boone. The reality is that it is likely going to be a split backfield, and as long as there is some production from Blackshear it can work given the $3,500-$3,700 in salary that is saved compared to a player like Bucky Irving or De’Von Achane. The difference here is that what you spend that $3,700 on has to outproduce the other players at wide receiver and tight end. The thing here is that with a lot of writers, podcasters, etc, they want to take a conservative approach and just follow the crowd which is how we got a 65% rostered D.J. Moore last week. The reason that they do this, is mostly so they don’t get yelled at if they get something completely wrong and are only thinking about their self-image and keeping their job. Personally, I’ve never cared about any of that, I just try to be real and tell you what I’m doing and why. A lot of the time it works, but sometimes it fails miserably. However, I’m a personal believer that over the long-run, you aren’t going to be successful simply following the crowd.
If you don’t want to go with Blackshear, I can’t say I blame you. I know that the risks are high here, but also feel comfortable with the spending up to Brock Bowers who should have a big day this week against New Orleans. At wide receiver, I like Davante Adams, but would have loved to find a way to get Mike Evans in over him, however even if I downgrade Cleveland to Las Vegas, that still leaves me $200 short. I could come off of Jonathan Taylor to Bucky Irving, but that seems like a little more risk than needed this week.
Primary Cash Lineup
No changes here.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,500
- RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, $4,500
- RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, $5,800
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,500
- WR Josh Downs, IND, $6,100
- WR Davante Adams, NYJ, $8,100
- TE Brock Bowers, LVR, $7,600
- Flex Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400
- TD Cleveland, $3,500
Projected Most Common Lineup- Crowd
Here’s the type of lineup that I’m expecting to be the most common lineups. My issue with this lineup is the risk that you’re taking on with both Hockenson and Ridley. Combined, these two players have scored four touchdowns in the 23 games this season. Hockenson has not scored, and has averaged just 38 receiving yards over the last four games. Meanwhile, Ridley has just five targets in each of his last two games with Mason Rudolph taking over at quarterback.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,500
- RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400
- RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, $5,800
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,500
- WR Josh Downs, IND, $6,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- TE T.J. Hockenson, MIN, $5,700
- Flex Josh Jacobs, GB, $8,300
- TD Las Vegas, $3,200
Week 16 Recap
Last week was one of the best of the season taking the Primary Cash Lineup to 9-7 on the season. The Primary Cash Lineup finished in the top 1% of all cash lineups, which made for a stress-free victory despite Michael Penix Jr.. struggling. There were multiple key decisions, Keenan Allen at 8% over the 62% D.J. Moore was massive. Chuba Hubbard at just 38% was surprising that he was as low as he was, but many people spent up to Josh Allen and could not afford Hubbard, Chase Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs so they prioritized the second two.
Week 16 Lineup- 170.68 scored
- QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL, $6,000- 7.38
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $8,200- 12.4
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,100- 33.5
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,300- 26.7
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $5,900- 15.3
- WR Keenan Allen, CHI, $6,200- 27.6
- TE Brock Bowers, LVR, $7,700- 15.4
- Flex Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,300-26.4
- TD Las Vegas, $3,200- 6.0
Week 17 Slate Thoughts- Worst Slate of the Season
This has quickly turned into a slate that we typically would see in Week 18, not Week 17. This week, because of the Christmas holiday, there are only nine games on the slate, of which there are six teams that are mostly unusable either through bad offensive production, or injuries. Miami, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New Orleans, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys. What this is going to do, is greatly narrow down the player pool for most people as it is essentially a six game slate which is normally less than what we see for a 1PM only slate.
So, how should you approach this week? The big question that you need to answer, is what you want to do at running back, as that is going to determine the rest of your lineup. There are several options, with none of them being must-starts this week outside of maybe Tyjae Spears.
The most common build at the running back position is going to be two of the $8k range players (Irving, Jacobs, Achane, and Taylor), along with Tyjae Spears. All four of those players seem to have the highest floor compared to the rest of the players that are cheaper than them, which people will then gravitate towards spending down at the tight end and wide receiver position. However, there are other ways to do this. You could spend up at Saquon Barkley and look at a mid-6k running back such as Jerome Ford or Kendre Miller, or you could even spend down at the minimum priced Raheem Blackshear.
Currently, I’m spending down for Blackshear. While the matchup is difficult against Tampa Bay, Blackshear is a player who has shown some pass-catching ability in his three seasons in Carolina. Blackshear has a 15% target rate in 2022 and 2023 as a receiver, which is a small sample size, but shows that the team has trusted him in the past as a receiver. Mike Boone the other running back for Carolina has been on the practice squad for most of the season, and would likely have next to zero snaps with Bryce Young who the team should be more optimistic about heading into 2025 and likely don’t want to have a player who hasn’t had any practice time pass blocking for their former number one pick.
What this allows me to do, is to spend up at other positions. Looking at Brock Bowers at tight end for example, who at $7,600 is still extremely affordable given the lack of great options in that range at wide receiver and running back. If you choose not to spend up with Bowers, you could look at a player like Davante Adams or Mike Evans who both have milestone narratives with Adams catching Aaron Rodgers 500th passing touchdown, while Evans needing to average 91 yards per game to keep his 1000 yard season streak going.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful for this week. Without Tua, the Dolphins are going to start Tyler Huntley. Huntley started the year with Cleveland, before being cut so the Browns could keep Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their third quarterback, now the game will feature the two facing off in one of the lowest projected totals of the week.
- Tony Pollard has been ruled out for the Titans. Tyjae Spears will get the start which is a long-awaited start for fantasy players. He should be in a great matchup against the Jaguars this week.
- Chuba Hubbard is out for the season due to a calf/knee injury. The Panthers are going to give Raheem Blackshear the first look, but Mike Boone is also expected to get some snaps here this week. At minimum price, Blackshear is somewhat intriguing on this slate.
- Joe Flacco will start for the Colts as Anthony Richardson has been ruled out. Flacco gives a significant upgrade to the receivers on the Colts, especially Josh Downs.
- Jalen Hurts is out for the Eagles. While logic would tell you that this would hurt the offense with Kenny Pickett starting, it likely is only going to hurt the auxiliary players as Pickett locked onto both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith this past week only throwing to them. It also should help Saquon Barkley’s touchdown equity as not having to worry about Hurts taking the one-yard touchdowns from him.
- CeeDee Lamb is out for the season with a shoulder injury. There’s not a direct beneficiary to the Cowboys offense here, but Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson should see a little bit more work this week.
- David Njoku has been ruled out for Cleveland. Jordan Akins is at least interesting with how often Dorian Thompson-Robinson targets his tight ends.
- Alvin Kamara has been ruled out for Week 17. Kendre Miller will once again get the start for New Orleans. He did not look great in a lopsided game script against Green Bay, but will get another shot this week.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Josh Allen | 23.0 | $9,100 | The decision of Josh Allen over Jayden Daniels is a critical one, as it is likely going to be less popular this week. However, in terms of floor, Josh Allen's floor against the sputtering Jets should be higher this week than Jayden Daniels if you're paying up at quarterback. The Bills are still playing for a lot here this week, as they need to win one of their last two games with Baltimore winning already this week. While, there also is some personal motivation for Josh Allen after a poor performance last week, the odds for MVP have narrowed significantly with Lamar Jackson. If Allen can have a statement victory, he likely can comfortably take next week off. Allen would get a $1.5M bonus if he wins the MVP award. |
| 2 | Bryce Young | 17.0 | $7,100 | With no Chuba Hubbard this week, the Panthers could very easily just take a pass-heavy approach knowing they'll likely struggle running the ball against the Buccaneers elite run defense. The way to beat Tampa Bay is through the air, as Young experienced earlier this season when he threw for 298 yards and a touchdown while also running for a touchdown. Young has ran for 20 yards or more in four of his last six games adding a nice little bonus to his floor. |
| 3 | Jayden Daniels | 23.4 | $8,500 | Jayden Daniels is likely going to be the most popular quarterback on this slate. He was outstanding last week, throwing for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns while rushing for 81 yards. Daniels has 28 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. However, in terms of how predictable this is for future weeks, it is still largely unknown. With this game being at 7:20PM, there's a chance that this game means nothing for Washington if Philadelphia wins and Tampa Bay loses. If that's the case, then why would Jayden Daniels run and risk injury before the playoffs? It's probably only a 20% chance that both of those results happen, but there's no reason to take on that risk. The upside is there, as Atlanta did allow 50 yards rushing or more to Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields the only two rushing quarterbacks that they've faced, but that was back in Week 1 and 2, so how they've adapted is still unknown. If you can afford Allen, he is the slightly better play, but if you can't Daniels is still a great secondary option if you're paying up at quarterback. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tyjae Spears | 11.6 | $5,800 | With Tony Pollard out this week, Tyjae Spears becomes the value play that we had been hoping for heading into this week. At $5,800, taking on Jacksonville who is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Spears has struggled this season as a runner, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, but he's a player who could certainly have upside and produce more with more volume. Spears also has an ability as a pass catcher as he has caught 27 passes this season while primarily only playing on key passing downs. |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 19.5 | $8,400 | While normally, this would seem a little bit "point chasing" to go after a running back who had 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, it is more than that this week. Taylor's trajectory has been building for a big second-half of the season for quite some time. He's had 20 carries or more in five of his last six games, has 100-yards or more in three of those, and this week gets to face the Giants who have been a favorable matchup all season. With Joe Flacco starting this week, it may lower his volume upside a little bit, but that should be more than replaced by touchdown equity as we won't have to worry about Anthony Richardson running for a touchdown. |
| 3 | Bucky Irving | 16.2 | $8,000 | Any time we can target running backs against Carolina, it needs to be considered. They've now allowed 100-yard performances in six of their last seven games as James Conner torched them for 117 yards rushing with a touchdown while also adding 49 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Irving has 100-yard performances in two of his last four games. The only concern for the Buccaneers running back is the workload. We've seen Rachaad White back to a higher-volume role again as he has 17 and 19 touches in two of his last three games. |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley | 20.8 | $9,600 | There's so much ugliness on this slate, that there's something potentially comforting just throwing your hands up and paying for Saquon Barkley. At $9,600, he's expensive, but there are certainly ways to fit him into your lineup especially if you pay down at quarterback this week. Saquon was great last week as he had 29 carries for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Eagles relied on him heavily to move the ball with Kenny Pickett struggling last week. Against Dallas earlier this season, Saquon did struggle gaining only 66 yards on 14 carries, but that was a 34-6 game that was never competitive. |
| 5 | Raheem Blackshear | 8.8 | $4,500 | With Chuba Hubbard out this week, this is simply a punt play if you look at Blackshear. At $4,500, he's a player who will see a bulk of the work, although Mike Boone will likely see some as well if he's promoted off the practice squad. For Blackshear, he does have a couple of things going for him. This is his third season on the team, and he did see 10% of the snaps last week which was a season-high. He's also a better receiver than Boone who has caught just 25 passes in the 70 games that he has played in the NFL throughout his career. Boone at age 29 is a veteran who we know who he is at this point of his career, where the somewhat younger Blackshear at 26 is someone the Panthers may just take a look at for next year as they look to build out a roster. If Blackshear could somehow get you 8-10 points, you're thrilled with that, especially if he can find the end-zone. On a week where there is almost no value, taking a chance on Blackshear is not the worst idea in the world. |
| 6 | De'Von Achane | 19.3 | $8,200 | I'm taking a stand a little bit here with De'Von Achane who will be the most popular player on this slate at the running back position. People are going to look at the matchup against Cleveland think that because Cleveland is 3-12, that their defense is awful. Their defense is bad, but it is primarily the pass defense that has been one of the worst in football this season. A lot of people will say well they've "quit". However, on the season, they're allowing just the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and while they've fallen off a little bit since the Week 10 bye, they're allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points including a game where they held Alvin Kamara to just 10 FanDuel points. It just seems to be a bit point chasing to target the guy who dominated against the 49ers who have one of the worst run defenses in recent weeks, but Achane had struggled in most matchups prior to this. It's risky, and I'll likely end up losing the entire slate if Achane has a big day, but there are better running backs at similar price points. Edit: With Tua Tagovailoa, Achane will likely be less popular than originally thought. He's still not a great play this week. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Josh Downs | 10.6 | 6,100 | With Joe Flacco starting this week, Josh Downs immediately sees a massive upgrade. Downs has at least 60 yards in every game Joe Flacco has played, while scoring three touchdowns in the six games. He's the clear number one receiver for the Colts this week, and the matchup is a relatively neutral one against the Giants this week. At $6,100, he's a clear must start. |
| 2 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 17.3 | 7,500 | Brian Thomas Jr. has been on an absolute tear as of late, which is going to make him extremely popular. This is a player who has back-to-back 100-yard and a touchdown performances, while scoring twice in Week 15. Thomas has at least 10 targets in each of his last four games, and at $7,500, his price remains affordable. The problem with Thomas is that he's facing a Titans defense that has been amongst the best against wide receivers all season. Tennessee has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, as only one player has topped 100-yards against them which was Keon Coleman setup by a 57 yard reception. In Week 14, Thomas faced Tennessee and had 8/86. The game plan for Jacksonville is to get him the ball often, so his floor should once again be in that 65-75 yard range, and the big question on whether he hits 2x is whether he finds the end-zone as it's difficult to see him having a 100-yard performance this week. |
| 3 | Mike Evans | 15.9 | 8,600 | Mike Evans is a top receiver on this slate if you're going to look to spend up. At $8,600, he's expensive, but provides some of the most upside on this slate outside of Justin Jefferson. In their first meeting this season, Evans was excellent as he had 118 yards and a touchdown, and now has a 100-yard game in two of his last four. The only problem with him is the price as you're likely going to have to make a sacrifice to get to him, but with Justin Jefferson being in a difficult matchup, Mike Evans having the narrative to get to 1,000 yards and needing 91 yards per game to do so, this is a premiere spot for the wide receiver. |
| 4 | Darnell Mooney | 11.2 | 6,400 | Mooney continues to be another player who is too cheap. There's a lot to like about his upside, but was encouraging last week was the involvement with Michael Penix Jr. in his first start. Mooney had 82 yards of Penix' 202 last week, and the passing game for Atlanta should largely flow through Mooney and London going forward as Bijan Robinson only saw two targets, while Kyle Pitts also saw just two targets. Penix is a player who has never thrown to tight ends and running backs much in college, so expect that to continue with Atlanta and at $6,400 is a cheap enough price point to have decent value this week. |
| 5 | Davante Adams | 15.3 | 8,100 | Davante Adams caught Aaron Rodgers 200th and 400th passes in the NFL. He now has a chance to catch number 500 as Rodgers is just one away from the milestone. Adams has scored five touchdowns over the last four games, and has averaged 110 receiving yards in those four contests. While he's nursing a hip injury, he was able to practice on Friday, which should be a good indication that he's going to play this week. |
| 6 | Adam Thielen | 11.5 | 6,200 | If you aren't going to punt with Raheem Blackshear, looking at Adam Thielen can be a way to go this week. There are really two paths with the Chuba Hubbard injury. They could continue to run their normal offense, incorporating their run game, or they could completely abandon it and throw the ball 40+ times this week. If it is the latter, at $6,200, Thielen would be in a tremendous spot at a very fair price. |
| 7 | Calvin Ridley | 12.4 | 6,300 | If you've followed this article by now, there's no reason to think we are stopping with Calvin Ridley at this point of the season. Every year there is a player who FanDuel just does not increase their price. Last week, Ridley had 78 yards and a touchdown, and now faces a Jacksonville defense that have allowed eight wide receivers to top 100 yards. In their Week 14 matchup, Ridley only had 7 receptions for 59 yards, but did see 12 targets. If we can once again get back up to the 10+ targets, he's a clear play, although the challenge is that he does have only 5 targets in each of his last two games as Chig Okonkwo has taken on a larger role with 10 targets in each of his last two games with Mason Rudolph as the starter. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 13 | 7,600 | This is another week, where if you can afford Brock Bowers, you pay up for him. There's no one in the mid-7k receiver or running back range that has the upside that Bowers has last week. Last week he caught 11 passes for 99 yards, and even though he failed to score a touchdown, he still had 90 yards or more in every game that he and Aidan O'Connell have played the full game together. |
| 2 | Chig Okonkwo | 6.7 | 5,400 | Chig Okonkwo has ten or more targets in each of his last two games while averaging 8.5 receptions for 70 yards. While in some cases, this would just be a random occurrence of a player seeing a higher volume than normal, this is directly attributable to Mason Rudolph taking over the starting job in Tennessee. Jacksonville is coming off of an 11 reception 99 yard performance from Brock Bowers, and Tennessee is likely looking at utilizing Okonkwo in a similar format to have success this week. |
| 3 | Jake Ferguson | 8 | 5,500 | The difference between Okonkwo and Ferguson is entirely who scores the touchdown. Both players should be heavily targeted here as Okonkwo has 10 targets or more in each of his last two games, while Ferguson will be the top receiving option for the Cowboys this week with CeeDee Lamb out for the year. If you can find the extra $200, you could go up to Ferguson, but it's not a necessity as both players are extremely close when it comes to projections this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 9.8 | 3,500 | With Tua Tagovailoa out, the Dolphins will turn to Tyler Huntley. Huntley played all offseason with the Browns, so there is a strong familiarity here with the quarterback and his strengths. Huntley played in three games this season and the Dolphins scored just 12.3 points per game when he was in the game. This is a potential low-scoring game with Huntley getting sacked multiple times in the small chance that this is Myles Garrett's last home game in Cleveland. |
| 2 | Las Vegas | 11.2 | 3,200 | Las Vegas taking on Spencer Rattler and the depleted Saints who were unable to move the ball last week against Green Bay. At $3,200 if you can't spend up for Cleveland, Las Vegas could save you $300. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.3)
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,500
- RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, $4,500
- RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, $5,800
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,500
- WR Josh Downs, IND, $6,100
- WR Davante Adams, NYJ, $8,100
- TE Brock Bowers, LVR, $7,600
- Flex Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400
- TD Cleveland, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.6
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,000
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $8,000
- RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, $5,800
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,500
- WR Josh Downs, IND, $6,100
- WR Darnell Mooney, ATL, $6,400
- TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $5,500
- Flex Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.6)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,500
- RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, $4,500
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $8,200
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,900
- WR Brian Thomas Jr.., JAX, $7,500
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- TE Jake Ferguson, DAL, $5,500
- Flex Jonathan Taylor, IND, $8,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,200
