Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update: 9:18 AM EST
There are several key situations that could take us right up to 90 minutes before game time. As of now, there is no change to the Primary Cash Lineup, but a couple of situations to keep an eye on.
Tony Pollard, David Njoku, and Ladd McConkey all appear to be true game-time decisions according to Adam Schefter. While McConkey is a 4PM start time, the other two are 1PM start times, meaning that we will get actives/inactives around 11:30 AM EST.
Njoku doesn't change much other than helping Elijah Moore and Jordan Akins becomes somewhat intriguing albeit still less than Hunter Henry.
However, it is Pollard that would change everything, as Tyjae Spears would become a must-start for Tennessee at just $5,400.
Also worth noting that the Buccaneers did not elevate a running back which should be a good sign that Bucky Irving will be active this week. While his role will be unknown this crushes the outlook of Rachaad White, and if you have a lineup with White in it, you could pivot to Rico Dowdle at a similar cost.
Check back around 11:30 AM EST or as soon as any Tony Pollard news might break.
Sunday Morning Update: 11:48 AM EST
Tony Pollard is active, David Njoku is inactive. No change to the Primary Cash Lineup. Good luck everyone.
Week 14 Recap
Week 14 was absolutely crazy town in terms of scoring. While the Primary Cash Lineup put up 135.68, which is normally easy cash, it was nowhere close enough to win this past week, which takes the Primary Cash Lineup to 8-6 on the season. Last week, basically, you had to have two players to guarantee cashing, as the cash line was 183.5 in a lot of 50/50’s. The primary build for most people was to take two of the cheap backup running backs and then load up with Josh Allen, who was 50-60% rostered. Allen had a career game scoring 54.88 FanDuel points, while Zach Charbonnet had 37.8. I’m not going to use this as a venting board other than to say that Charbonnet had three carries longer than 15 yards last week, which, in his first 183 carries of his career, he only had two total runs longer than 15 yards.
While the results weren’t positive due to this build, this is not a week where I’m upset about the lineup. Going into the week, I knew that playing two of those low-end running backs was a high-risk, high-reward play, and both Charbonnet and Allen had career games. If you had known that Charbonnet would have had 193 total yards or that Josh Allen would combine for six total touchdowns, you could have made a lot more money than just the 50/50 prize of getting a 90% return.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Ken Walker III is doubtful this week with a calf injury. Zach Charbonnet is going to get the start. Charbonnet should be popular this week in a better matchup against Green Bay than he was last week against San Francisco. While the price has increased up to $6,700, it is still very affordable, even if it feels a bit like point chasing from last week.
- George Pickens has once again been ruled out this week. Pickens was out last week, and the receiving group was largely a mess. No player had more than three receptions, and no player had more than five targets, including Jaylen Warren. Cedric Tillman is out this week with a concussion, while David Njoku looks like he’s going to miss as well but is still questionable. Jerry Jeudy at $6,900 is once again going to be popular on this slate, but Jordan Akins at just $4,900 could be intriguing. He’s a high-risk tight end, but the Browns in Kevin Stefanski’s scheme have heavily utilized the tight ends throughout his tenure, as evidenced by Njoku having 16 receptions over his last two games.
- Breece Hall is questionable this week. It looks like he’s going to give it a go, but the expectations need to be limited here. The Jets are in talent evaluation mode at this point, and giving both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis snaps for the 3-10 Jets seems likely, especially with Hall being less than 100%.
- Evan Engram was ruled out with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars’ passing attack is completely decimated, with just Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Etienne Jr. as primary receivers. Thomas is the guy who is going to get the biggest boost as Etienne doesn’t have enough touches as a running back to trust; while Washington had 12 targets two weeks ago, he had just two targets last week.
- Bucky Irving looks like he’s going to miss this week. Rachaad White, at $7,200, is a little overpriced but is facing a Chargers run defense that has been struggling, as they’ve allowed 100 yards or more in two of the last three games.
- Noah Brown is out this week. The good news for the Commanders is that they could get Jamison Crowder back this week after the receiver has missed the last ten games. Terry McLaurin should see a small upgrade, but it is too expensive at $8,200.
- Derek Carr is doubtful with a hand injury and concussion. If he misses, Jake Haener is going to get the start. This likely just completely kills this offensive upside this week, as Haener is completing just 48% of his passes this season.
- Drew Lock is doubtful with a foot injury. Tommy DeVito will get the start this week. DeVito has thrown for over 200 yards just once in his career in his seven starts. This is largely a non-factor, as Lock wasn’t good when he was starting, so I have low expectations for the Giants besides Malik Nabers this week.
- Tony Pollard is questionable this week with an ankle injury after not practicing all week. If he were to miss, Tyjae Spears would be one of the best value plays on this slate against the Bengals’ defense. It seems likely that Pollard is going to play as he hasn’t practiced for most of the season, but he has played every game this year.
Week 15 Slate Thoughts- Critical Decision Players
This has been an interesting season. What we’ve seen is that players who are cheap and popular have ended up succeeding at a much higher rate than in prior years. This has caused situations where many people are on the exact same lineup, and those “trains” are performing at a rate that has not historically been attained. The train lineups are nothing new. This has been happening to date back to the start of FanDuel, whether it is intentional or not, where people end up on similar lineups or there are groups of people who enter the exact same lineup. However, it is increasingly frustrating this year simply because they’ve had a great year.
Joining these trains is often a really bad idea in the long term. Let’s say there are 30 out of the 100 lineups that are the exact same. That means there are 71 unique lineups (70 non-train and one train). For you to fully double your money on a winning week, you need to essentially finish 20th out of the 71 unique lineups. Otherwise, your train lineup will cross over the cut-line threshold, and you’ll only get a partial return on your investment.
This week, there are a couple of critical decision points that you’re going to need to make regarding your lineups. The biggest name this week is Chuba Hubbard. Based on the industry, it seems very likely that he’s going to be the most popular running back on this slate. However, he brings risk this week, given the inconsistency in touches as well as just the inconsistency in Carolina’s offense. More thoughts on Chuba down in the Player Pool.
Another key decision point is Elijah Moore. At $4,900, Moore is an underpriced possession receiver. He’s a player who likely is not going to kill your lineup, but he is not going to be a player who gives you much upside, either. You’re essentially throwing away a roster spot for a player who is going to get your 1.5x-2x. The key here is at $4,900, whether you can reinvest those savings into another player who has significant upside.
For me, I’m choosing to fade Chuba Hubbard in order to invest up to find $1,700 to fit Derrick Henry into my lineup. The way that I’m looking at it is there are enough receiver in the $6k range that the $1,700 best can be invested into a running back in a 16.5 point favorite compared to a running back on the Panthers who has been up and down this season.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Josh Allen | 24.9 | $9,500 | This is hard to fit into your lineup, but likely necessary because of the upside. The Bills vs Lions game this week is projected to be one of the highest scoring games of the season according to Vegas as there is a 54.5 over/under in this one. With that said, how do the Bills move the ball against Detroit? It seems unlikely that they will be able to run the ball as the Lions have one of the league's best run defense. Therefore, you're going to need to utilize Allen's arm and legs in order to keep up with Detroit's offense. Allen has run for six touchdowns over his last four games as he's back to being the red zone ball carrier that we saw last season. $9,500 is hard, as you're paying the premium for his performance last week, but on a week where there are not a lot of low-end options at quarterback paying up for Allen helps you have a nice floor and prevent you from facing him when he's extremely popular again. |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | 22.0 | $8,600 | Joe Burrow has been outstanding over the last five weeks. This is an offense that has at least three passing touchdowns in five straight games, has thrown for over 300 yards in four straight games, and this week they're facing a Tennessee team that has a much better run defense than pass defense. With Ja'Marr Chase establishing himself as the best receiver in football, while Tee Higgins and Chase Brown also add a difficult matchup for defenses. Also benefitting this passing game is that the Bengals defense has been atrocious which has forced game scripts that force the Bengals to keep throwing the ball. If Tennessee can keep up with the Bengals, this should be a big day for Burrow. |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | 21.1 | $7,800 | Kyler Murray is interesting. He's been throwing the ball much better in recent weeks as he has at least 250 passing yards in five of his last six games. The problem with Murray is that because of his throwing increase, he's seen his rushing numbers completely fall off. Murray has run for over 25 yards just once in his last six games correlating directly with the hot streak throwing the ball. If Murray is not running, that's a problem, as he doesn't have the upside as a passer to compete with players like Joe Burow or Tua Tagovailoa. At $7,800, he's going to be popular this week, but does he really need a big game against New England who offensively have had their struggles? Murray is often a player who has his best fantasy performances in garbage time as he tries to lead the team back to victory. It's no coincidence that he's lost three straight games and had some of his best passing performances. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 20.9 | 9200 | Derrick Henry should be in a fantastic spot this week going up against the Giants. Baltimore is projected to score 28.5 points this week which is the most in the NFL, they're 16.5 point favorites, and Henry has the highest touchdown upside on the board. While the Giants run defense did shut down Alvin Kamara last week, this is a team that is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to the running back position, has allowed both Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to both top 100 yards over the last four weeks, and is now without their only competent defensive lineman in All-Pro Dexter Lawrence II. Henry has 150 yard 3 touchdown upside this week if the Ravens choose to go that route coming off of a bye. |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | 21.7 | 9300 | Choosing between Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley entirely comes down to matchup. While Barkley is matchup proof, he doesn't get a bonus for a positive matchup this week where Henry gets one of the best possible matchups. For Barkley, it comes down to Derrick Henry having a higher touchdown upside compared to the MVP candidate this week. The reality is that in a cash game format, it is difficult for either player to reach value at the $9k+ salary without scoring a touchdown. Especially with Barkley averaging just 1.8 receptions per game over his last five games, neither player is really having a significant impact in the receiving area, so even a 100-yard rushing performance wouldn't be enough to get to value without a touchdown. Barkley does have five touchdowns over his last four games, and we are entirely splitting hairs on this extremely close decision, but Henry is coming off of a bye in a game where he and the Ravens should be able to name their score as 16.5 point favorites. Meanwhile for the Eagles, there's a lot of chatter about their inability to throw the ball, and this could be a week where they come out and address that with both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith facing off against a struggling Steelers secondary. |
| 3 | Zach Charbonnet | 17.3 | 6700 | I tweeted out on Sunday that Zach Charbonnet has entered boogeyman status for me along with Joe Mixon. Essentially, I can never get these guys right. The Packers run defense has been good as of late, as they have not allowed a running back to top 75 yards while facing a gauntlet of running backs in Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery twice, De'Von Achane, and D'Andre Swift. However, at $6,700, he's a great value on a week where there is none at the running back position as of Saturdyay. He's $200 more than Tyrone Tracy Jr., $100 more than Rhamondre Stevenson, it's a no brainer simply based on last week's performance. Even if he fails, it is a risk I'm willing to take. |
| 4 | Chuba Hubbard | 18.2 | 7500 | Chuba Hubbard is in a weird pricing zone this week. He's likely going to be the most popular running back on this slate at $7,500, but the big question is whether he should be or not. Hubbard had 30 touches last week against Philadelphia in a 22-16 loss for Carolina last week. Even with those 26 carries he managed to just get 92 yards while he was able to add 15 yards on four receptions. Hubbard's production has been all over the map recently, as over the last four games he has 32, 17, 12, 30 touches. While he seems to be slowing down given his 3.6 yards per carry over the last three weeks, what is encouraging about Hubbard is that he's facing a much more favorable matchup this week than over the last three. While Dallas is largely neutral, compared to Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay, it will be a massive upgrade for Hubbard this week. Dallas has struggled more against receiving backs than they have against actual rushing as they're only allowing 99 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, but are allowing 40 receiving yards per game to the position. This hurts Hubbard as he does not have more than 17 receiving yards in a game since Week 3. He's a good play, just not a must-play like everyone is making him out to be this week. |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 16.1 | 7100 | Rico Dowdle has been fantastic the last two weeks rushing for over 100 yards in both games and is now averaging 22 touches per game over the last three weeks. Dowdle is facing Carolina who have the worst run defense in the NFL, and this week it could get even worse as starting linebacker Trevin Wallace it out for Week 15, which leaves Josey Jewell along with second-year Claudin Cherelus who has been abysmal in his limited playing time this season. This is already the worst defensive line in the NFL since they lost Derrick Brown, and this week it should be a big opportunity for Dallas to run the ball against the team that is allowing 139 rushing yards per game to running backs. One concern for the Cowboys is finishing drives. Dowdle has just one rushing touchdown all season despite leading the team in red zone targets |
| 6 | Rachaad White | 14.2 | 7200 | The last two weeks, Rachaad White has started to show significant improvement. Last week, with Bucky Irving leaving early in the game, White had 17 carries for 90 yards while adding two receptions for 19 yards. Last season as the starter, White was a volume workhorse having 20 or more carries in six games. While the Chargers defense has been good for most of the season, they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and have allowed 100 rushing yards in two of the last three games to Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Calvin Ridley | 11.6 | 6000 | Calvin Ridley remains underpriced. At $6,000, you're getting a player who has at least 50 yards in five of his last six games. For the Titans to have any chance at keeping up with the high-powered Bengals offense, they're going to need to throw the ball this week. The good news is that as great as the Bengals offense has been, their defense has also been abysmal. Ridley had 12 targets last week against the Jaguars in a favorable matchup, and while he was unable to get to a ceiling game, he should once again have a significant target share this week. |
| 2 | Jerry Jeudy | 13.1 | 6,900 | With no Cedric Tillman once again this week, Jerry Jeudy should be in an excellent spot despite a difficult matchup against the Chiefs. The Browns are likely going to struggle to run the ball against Kansas City this week as Cleveland has the third-fewest rushing yards on the season and are taking on the best run defense in the NFL. This could lead to a pass-heavy approach for the Browns and if that occurs Jeudy will be the biggest benefactor of that gameplan. Jeudy has shown both a high-floor and a high-ceiling since Jameis Winston took over as he has at least 70 yards or more in five of the six games that Jameis has started while topping 60 in the game he failed to do so. He's also scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and has 100 yards or more in two of his last four. He's developing into a number one receiver that the Browns hoped they would have when they traded for him this offseason. At just $6,900, the price is more than fair to have a big game this week. |
| 3 | Adam Thielen | 12.8 | 6,100 | Thielen is underpriced this week at just $6,100. Over the last two weeks, Thielen has been great as he has 99 yards and a touchdown and 102 yards last week. Both games he's seen at least ten targets and will get another favorable matchup this week taking on a Dallas defense that has allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of their last five games. With Bryce Young starting to play better, look for him to continue to lean on Thielen this week and at his price should be a strong consideration for your lineup. |
| 4 | Ladd McConkey | 12.7 | 7,100 | Ladd McConkey gets another favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay. Over his last three games, McConkey has had three extremely favorable matchups against Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Baltimore and has at least 80 yards in all three games while topping 100 yards in two of those three games. This week, he gets to face Tampa Bay who are allowing the second-most passing yards per game. The Buccaneers have had safety problems all season, and now with Antoine Winfield Jr. out this week it will only make the issues worse. |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | 10.9 | 6,200 | With Tyreek Hill having to deal with Derek Stingley Jr, this is likely going to open up opportunities for Jaylen Waddle this week in the slot. Over his last three games, Waddle has topped 50 yards in all three, with 144, 53, and 99 yard performances. He's had a relatively disappointing year, but since Tua Tagovailoa has come back, this offense is starting to click and get back to the prolific passing attack that we've seen in years past. The Dolphins are likely to struggle running the ball this week as Houston boasts one of the league's best run defenses, and De'Von Achane is struggling as a runner which should force more of a pass-heavy approach this week. |
| 6 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 14.8 | 6,800 | The Jaguars are absolutely decimated with pass catching options. Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis are all out for the season leaving only Brian Thomas Jr. for Jacksonville. The matchup is a difficult one, but they have looked vulnerable as both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had big games last week. The Jets do get Sauce Gardner back this week, but expect Thomas to slide down into the slot to avoid that matchup and create a mismatch with Gardner not sliding down to the slot position. |
| 7 | Elijah Moore | 9.1 | 4,900 | Elijah Moore is going to be popular this week given Cedric Tillman is once again out. At $4,900, the price is fantastic for Moore, but there are certainly problems. While he topped 100 yards against the Broncos in Week 13, that was an outlier game that Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards. The reality is that he has 3 or fewer catches in three of his last five games, has less than 35 yards in three of his last five games, has just one touchdown on the season, is averaging just 9.1 yards per reception, and has just one red zone target over his last five games. So, if he's not getting red zone targets, is averaging just 9.1 yards per catch, what is his upside especially with David Njoku sounding like he is going to play this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Hunter Henry | 9.3 | 5,000 | It's unlikely you're going to have much salary to spend at the tight end position this week. At $5,000, you're getting a player who has 50 yards or more in thee of his last four games and is the number one receiving option for Drake Maye. The only reason he's as cheap as he is, is that he has only scored one touchdown all season. Henry has a commanding lead for the Patriots with 14 red zone targets with no other player having more than seven this season. This is where we get into the cruel world of the NFL season being such a small sample size and touchdowns being difficult to project. However, statistically, it is always going to be better to at least target players who are seeing volume in the red zone compared to those that aren't, as over larger sample sizes (years), those players touchdowns will start to normalize. Whether Henry scores this week is unknown, but at $5,000 he doesn't need to in order to hit value compared to some of the more expensive tight ends. |
| 2 | Stone Smartt | 6.5 | 4,500 | If you need to go even cheaper than Henry this week, you could look at Stone Smartt with Will Dissly out. Smartt is a converted quarterback from Old Dominion who has the frame more or a wide receiver than a tight end as he's 6'4'' 225 pounds. The thing to like about Smartt is just how bad Tampa Bay has been to opposing tight ends. Tampa Bay has allowed 40 yards or more to 11 tight ends over their last nine games. At $4,500, the bar is fairly low for Smartt to reach value or allow you to spend up to a player who may have a higher ceiling. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Carolina | 10.5 | 3,300 | The Panthers get a nice break after a gauntlet of a schedule having faced Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia over the last three weeks. This week, they'll get to face Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in a game that they're favored for the first time in 33 games. The Panthers pass rush has been a critical component the last three weeks as they have 13 sacks over the last three games against those much good offenses. |
| 2 | Baltimore | 15.2 | 5,000 | Baltimore taking on Tommy DeVito? The only question is whether you can find a way to pay up for the Ravens this week. DeVito is averaging 5.3 sacks per game in his seven career starts. While the Ravens have had issues stopping the pass all season, this should be a game where they're forcing the Giants to throw the ball heavily which creates opportunities for the defense this week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.2)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,300
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200
- WR Elijah Moore, CLE, $4,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,000
- WR Adam Thielen, CAR, $6,100
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,000
- Flex Zach Charbonnet, SEA, $6,700
- TD Carolina, $3,400
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 136.6
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB Rico Dowdle, DAL, $7,100
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200
- WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,000
- WR Adam Thielen, CAR, $6,100
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,000
- Flex Zach Charbonnet, SEA, $6,700
- TD Carolina, $3,400
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 136.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $8,600
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,500
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200
- WR Elijah Moore, CLE, $4,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,000
- WR Ja'Marr Chase, CIN, $9,400
- TE Stone Smartt, LAC, $4,500
- Flex Zach Charbonnet, SEA, $6,700
- TD Carolina, $3,400
