Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update: 8:55AM EST
In a surprising move, the Saints activated Kendre Miller from IR yesterday. While it's a slight downgrade to Alvin Kamara, it's still a situation where Kamara is going to have as many touches as he can handle this week given the injury to Taysom Hill. It's hard to see Miller taking more than what Taysom Hill had, so for Kamara to have around 26 touches would be in line with his recent average.
The big question, that I've been going back and forth with is Isaac Guerendo or Zach Charbonnet. I'm sticking with Guerendo for a couple of reasons. The matchup is certainly better against the Bears who are allowing 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs since Week 8, while Arizona is allowing just 78 yards. The second reason is that Charbonnet has failed in four of his five starting opportunities over the last two seasons. The only time he had success was in his most recent start against at the time a bad Miami run defense that has aged well as that defense has greatly improved.
No change to the Primary Cash Lineup unless a significant injury at which there will be a second post.
- QB Jameis Winston, CLE, $6,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,200
- RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, $5,200
- WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $6,800
- Flex Saquon Barkley, PHI, $10,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,100
Sunday Morning Update: 11:38AM EST
George Pickens has been ruled out. While this should open up opportunity for Mike Williams, he's not trustworthy enough to trust on this slate
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Philadelphia (vs CAR) – 29.0 points
- Buffalo (at LAR) – 27.0 points
- Tampa Bay (vs LAR) – 26.25 points
- Minnesota (vs ATL) – 25.5 points
- Miami (vs NYJ) – 25.25 points
- Pittsburgh (vs CLE) – 25.25 points
Week 13 Recap
Week 13 was a week that we simply had to have if we want to finish profitable for the Primary Cash Lineup. Thankfully, it was a no stress week as the lineup finished in the top 5% of all lineups. This takes the Primary Cash Lineup to 8-5 on the season. 11-7 is what is ultimately needed to call the year profitable as 10-8 is a break-even year based on the rake. Last week, every player did what they ultimately were supposed to do, and we missed some of the key land mines on the slate. Bijan Robinson was the leader of the group as he put up 25.5 points at just 25% rostered. If there was a mistake, it would have been taking the Jaguars and not finding a way to get up to the Jets defense who had 16 points at $3,700.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Breece Hall is doubtful this week with a knee injury. Braelon Allen will get the start for the Jets. Allen is going to be popular at just $5,200, and while he’s shown flashes, he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the season for a team that struggled to move the ball with Breece Hall. There’s certainly risk with Allen this week, but he should see the majority of the workload.
- Taysom Hill is out for the Saints. They also had hoped to get Bub Means back at wide receiver, but he will also miss another week. The Saints are now without Hill, Means, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. This should open up Alvin Kamara to have about as many touches as he can handle, but it could also open the door for Juwan Johnson to be a low-end tight end this week.
- Malik Nabers is questionable with a hip injury. If he were to miss this week, Theo Johnson would get a nice bump, as would Darius Slaton and Wan’Dale Robinson, but neither receiver is cheap enough to be a core building block, given the lack of upside with Drew Lock at quarterback.
- Cedric Tillman will once again miss for Cleveland with a concussion. This should greatly benefit Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore who did not see their price increase due to the breakout performance happening on Monday Night after pricing had been released. Of the two, Jeudy is the player with more upside due to Moore averaging just 8.9 yards per catch.
- Bucky Irving is questionable with a hip injury. While it seems like he’s going to play, if he were to miss, Rachaad White would be a near must-start.
- Ken Walker III is questionable with an ankle injury. If he were to miss, Zach Charbonnet would get the start. While Charbonnet has not been overly inspiring this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, he has shown ability as a receiving back early on in the year and does have the game against Miami in which he had 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns. At $5,300 he’s a strong cash option this week.
- D’Andre Swift is questionable, while Roschon Johnson is out for the Bears. Swift did get a limited practice in on Friday after missing Wednesday and Thursday. The team did sign Demetric Felton in case Swift is unable to go, but Travis Homer is the only running back on the active roster. Homer is more of a special teams player, so it could be Darrynton Evans who would get the bulk of the carries this week, although a committee approach would be the most likely scenario.
- Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are both out for the season. This will put Isaac Guerendo as the starting running back for the 49ers. Guerendo has all the tools here to be a starting running back, as his physical attributes are 220 pounds and running a 4.33 40-yard dash. However, this will be the first time as a multi-game starter since high school, as he was a backup to Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and Jawhar Jordan at Louisville. At $5,200, he’s the top cash option this week.
Week 13 Slate Thoughts- Similar Lineups
These are the type of weeks that are the hardest. When it almost seems too easy to build a lineup, it ultimately means that everyone is going to have a near identical lineup. This week, both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara are facing the two worst run defenses in the NFL. With that said, you also have three nearly identical running backs in Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, and Zach Charbonnet who are all going to be tremendous values. At wide receiver, you’re going to see people gravitate towards the numerous underpriced receivers between $6k-$7k as these players have nearly as much upside as the more expensive receivers.
Option 1: Taking Both Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley- Cash Option
This option is likely best used for a cash lineup. The floor that you’re going to get between both Kamara and Barkley is significant. There is enough value this week to comfortably fit these two in without taking a high-risk on a player that otherwise you’d have to do on most weeks. Both Kamara and Barkley have the highest yardage projection on Footballguys of any running back this season. Facing the two worst defenses in the NFL, these are players that are going to be heavily utilized as both players should easily see 22+ touches this week with Kamara possibly getting close to 30.
Option 2: Taking one of Barkley/Kamara and loading up at other positions.
This is a more risky strategy, but likely a better one for GPP’s and potentially even Cash + contests. The thinking here is simple, from a cost per dollar standpoint, the cheap running backs in Guerendo/Allen/Charbonnet could very well surpass Barkley/Kamara. This would give you between $4k and $5k to invest in a high-end quarterback, better lower rostered receiver, or even a top tight end. It’s risky however, as these backup running backs do come with a lower floor and you’ll need the players that you spend salary on to ultimately pay off.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jameis Winston | 16.9 | $6,900 | Despite a difficult matchup last week against Denver, Jameis Winston had a career day with 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. He did throw three interceptions in that game, two of which went for touchdowns, but the interceptions don't necessarily hurt the quarterback as the negative one point that you get for them just helps the game script and gets the ball back in his hands faster. In a snow game against Pittsburgh just two weeks ago, Winston had struggled, but the weather should be much better this week. At $6,900 you're getting a player who has thrown for 300 yards in three of his five games with Cleveland and he's putting up very similar numbers to Joe Flacco in Cleveland last season. |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 22.0 | $8,900 | If you're building a lineup without Alvin Kamara or Saquon Barkley, you could look to spend up to Josh Allen this week. The Rams have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season. Allen is the MVP favorite and a big performance here would certainly go a long way as Saquon Barkley is in a prime matchup who is the other leading candidate. Allen has 20 or more FanDuel points in seven straight games, and has at least 28 FanDuel points in three games this season. If he has one of his ceiling performances, the $8,900 price point is certainly an option especially if one of Barkley or Kamara struggle this week. |
| 3 | Aidan O'Connell | 16.4 | $6,700 | O'Connell was incredibly impressive last week against one of the league's best defenses. O'Connell threw for 340 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs last week. This week, he gets a far more favorable matchup facing arguably the league's worst secondary in Tampa Bay. O'Connell still comes with his own risk, as outside of that performance, he's just looked very inconsistent each time. However, he no longer has to worry about Gardner Minshew II or Desmond Ridder, it's clear that this is his offense for the remainder of the season, and |
| 4 | Will Levis | 17.6 | $6,600 | Will Levis is going to be popular this week, but the question is why. Yes, the matchup is great against the Jaguars, and Levis has 275 yards or more in two of his last three games, but this is still a quarterback who does not have a 300 yard game or a 3 touchdown performance this season. This is a quarterback who has thrown for less than 200 yards in five of the nine games that he's started this season. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Isaac Guerendo | 12.3 | 5200 | Guerendo brings some risk here as this is the first multi-game stretch that he will be a starter since high school as he was a backup throughout college at both Wisconsin and Louisville. However, in terms of physical ability, there are very few running backs with the talent that he has. At 220 pounds, running a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine, he is going to cause significant problems for the struggling Bears. The Bears fired head coach and defensive play caller after the heartbreaking loss last week to Detroit. Since Week 8, the Bears are allowing 5.0 yards per carry, and have allowed six running backs to top 75 yards in their last five games. |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | 24.0 | 10000 | The decision between Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara is incredibly difficult this week. Both running backs in terms of total upside are clearly above the rest of this slate. It seems extremely likely that most people are just going to play both and figure out the rest of their lineup this week which is certainly the ideal strategy. Saquon Barkley is on pace to break Eric Dickerson's 2,105 rushing record (albeit in 16 games) as he needs 121 rushing yards per game in order to break that record. Running behind the league's best offensive line, Barkley has topped 100 yards in six of his last seven games and has scored five touchdowns over his last three games. Now, this week, he gets to take on the Panthers who have the worst run defense in the NFL. It's a no brainer to take Barkley this week and figure out the rest of your lineup. |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara | 22.0 | 9200 | For Kamara, he's become the last man standing in New Orleans. With Taysom Hil, Kendre Miller, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means all out, Kamara is going to be asked to have as many touches as he can handle. This will be the first game that the Saints will have without Taysom Hill. In his last four games, Kamara has averaged 26 touches per game. Now, this week, Kamara gets an extremely favorable matchup against the Giants who are allowing 136 rushing yards per game since Week 8. Now, they're without All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. It's going to make an already bad defensive line arguable the worst in the NFL. |
| 4 | Zach Charbonnet | 12.2 | 5300 | With Ken Walker III looking like he's going to miss, Charbonnet become intriguing this week. The issue for the second-year running back is that in multiple opportunities, he has really only paid off once which was earlier this season against Miami. However, the volume is going to be there, as he had 19 and 21 touches in the two games without Walker this season, while providing a nice receiving upside which should help his floor as he averaged four receptions per game in those two contests. At 3.5 yards per carry, Charbonnet is a player who you can put in your lineup, but he's really going to be touchdown dependent in whether he hits value or not. |
| 5 | Braelon Allen | 12.7 | 5200 | With Breece Hall out this week, the Jets need to figure out what they have in Braelon Allen as they look to rebuild their roster after a disappointing 3-9 record. Allen has shown flashes of being a lead back, but he's also disappeared from time to time which have killed his season long stats averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. There's also some risk that the Jets could incorporate fellow rookie Isaiah Davis this week although Davis has seen very little involvement so far this year. Allen is certainly playable, as he should comfortably get 12-14 touches, and that's good enough at $5,200, but with Guerendo and the two high-end players the question is whether he has the upside to compete with those three guys. There's just more risk with the Jets who have nothing to play for and how motivated they're going to be to pplay the rest of the year with some of the drama surrounding the team and Aaron Rodgers. |
| 6 | Bijan Robinson | 18.3 | 8900 | Bijan Robinson looked great last week as he had a career high with 32 touches. Something doesn't look right with Kirk Cousins as his arm strength just does not appear to be what we're used to. With that, the Falcons are turning more towards their rushing offense and checkdowns to Robinson as he has averaged five receptions per game over his last five games. The matchup is a difficult one as the Vikings boast a far better run defense than pass defense, but they did lose their best run-stopper in Ivan Pace Jr. and James Conner was able to have moderate success last week. Even still, it's a clear dropoff this week after you get past the top four running backs, and at $8,900, the savings to go down to Robinson are just not great enough. |
| 7 | Tony Pollard | 15.1 | 7500 | No team has been as bad defensively as of late as the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a strong start to the season, Jacksonville is allowing 147 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs since Week 8 which leads the NFL. They're allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The issue with Pollard has been the inconsistency in volume. In his last six games, he has three games with 20 carries or more, and three games with 10 carries or less. It is a team that is quick to abandon the run when they fall behind, but with Mac Jones starting for Jacksonville, it seems unlikely that the Titans would get game scripted out of running the ball heavily. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jerry Jeudy | 13.3 | 6100 | With Cedric Tillman out, Jerry Jeudy is near a must play at just $6,100. This is a scenario where his price did not adjust because of the 235 yard performance on Monday Night. The Steelers matchup is not great for Jeudy, but neither was the Broncos matchup on Monday facing Patrick Surtain II. The Steelers have been good against opposing receivers, but have shown some cracks as of late as they've allowed 150 yards or more to two receivers over the last three games. At $6,100, you're getting a player who has 11 targets or more in three of his last four games. |
| 2 | Jauan Jennings | 12.7 | 6,400 | Jauan Jennings is undervalued this week. With the 49ers offensive options extremely limited, San Francisco is likely going to look heavily towards their number one receiver this week. Jennings has 11 or more targets in two of his last four games with last week being possibly his most impressive performance despite only having five targets. In a blizzard, Jennings was the only player that the 49ers had any confidence in throwing the ball to as he had 60% of the team's yards. At $6,400, he's still lower priced than Deebo Samuel Sr. who is $7,100. Jennings has more receptions, receiving yards, total yards, and touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jennings role did not really become solidified until Brandon Aiyuk went down because of injury. He's the clear top target in San Francisco along with George Kittle. |
| 3 | Calvin Ridley | 12.2 | 6,300 | If you like Will Levis this week, you have to like the upside that Calvin Ridley brings. At $6,300, he's another player who's price continues to be too low each week. While Ridley struggled last week with just 45 yards, he did still have seven targets against Washington. Ridley has at least 50 yards in five of his last six games while topping 70 in four of those six. Facing one of the league's worst defenses, the Titans should be able to throw the ball here, and Ridley should have a significant advantage facing a defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and more recently three wide receivers in their last two games have topped 100 yards. |
| 4 | Jakobi Meyers | 13.8 | 6,700 | Jakobi Meyers is an excellent value play this week at $6,700. The only real question is whether you can find a lineup build that allows you to fit him in given that most people are going to have both Saquon and Kamara in the same lineup. Over the last two games, Meyers has 97 and 121 yards while averaging 13 targets per game. This is an offense that is basically Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers as their only two options in the receiving game. Meyers has topped 100 yards in two of his last four games, and if there is one knock on him it has been his inability to score touchdowns this season as he has just two all year. Meyers does have 10 red zone targets on the year, which is just one behind Brock Bowers, so the touchdowns certainly should come, but he does pose more risk to find the end-zone than other receivers ahead of him on this ranking because of Bowers' emergence as Meyers has just five targets in his last eight games. |
| 5 | Ladd McConkey | 13.2 | 7,000 | With J.K. Dobbins out, Ladd McConkey continues to emerge as the leading offensive weapon for the Chargers. Last week, in a game that the Chargers threw the ball just 23 times, McConkey had 9 receptions for 117 yards against Atlanta. He now has 80 yards or more in each of his last three games. There are a couple of concerns however, which have him all the way down at number five this week. He's catching passes at an unsustainable rate as he's caught 77% of his targets over the last three weeks. He also does not have a touchdown over the last five games and does not have a red zone target since Week 8. There's regression coming for McConkey, and while the price remains fair, it is a scenario where he could pose some risk facing a very good Chiefs defense. |
| 6 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 9.2 | 5,400 | With Malik Nabers looking like he's going to miss this week, Wan'Dale Robinson becomes the top target sub-$6k on this slate. While his upside is extremely limited given his 7.1 yards per catch average this season, he's the type of player that provides you salary flexibility, a high floor for the price tag, and a player that you're just hoping can get to 2x his salary so that you can fit a player with higher upside in your lineup. |
| 7 | Justin Jefferson | 16 | 9,200 | Paying up for a receiver this week unless you're trying to be completely different doesn't make a lot of sense given Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara's matchups. However, Justin Jefferson last week showed a little bit at the end of the game last week which could indicate a breakout performance is coming. Jefferson does not have a touchdown in his last six games, does not have a touchdown in his last five games, and is averaging just 64 receiving yards per game. Facing Atlanta who has allowed a 100 yard game in two of the last three games to opposing wide receivers, this should open an opportunity for Jefferson to have a similar performance as Ladd McConkey and Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 10.9 | 6,800 | $6,800 is a very fair price for Travis Kelce this week. There's been some unlucky results for Kelce, as he has a staggering 19 red zone targets and just two touchdowns this year. That's not sustainable, and regression will certainly occur especially considering he has 13 red zone targets in his last six games. Kelce had 13 targets last week and while he's averaging just 8.5 yards per catch this season which is the first year he's ever been below 10, the Chiefs need to get right offensively and figure out their offensive game plan heading into the playoffs. |
| 2 | Brock Bowers | 14.8 | 8,000 | Brock Bowers is expensive, but is on a completely different level of all other tight ends at the moment. Bowers has averaged 13 targets per game over the last three weeks, has topped 125 yards in two of those three games and has scored two touchdowns in those three contests. With Aidan O'Connell at quarterback, he's the clear number one receiver in this offense coming off of a 140 yard performance last week against one of the league's best defenses in Kansas City. |
| 2 | David Njoku | 11.2 | 6,200 | Going cheap at the tight end position this week is hard. Cade Otton and Juwan Johnson will likely garner some interest this week, but you're giving up a lot of upside. Njoku had 17 targets last week, but these were mostly low volume targets as he averaged just 5.8 yards per catch for a total of 58 yards. He did score two touchdowns which ultimately made his day. Njoku has 9 receptions in two of his last three games, so the volume is there, but he does have a very low floor because of the 8.1 yards per catch for the season. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tennessee | 11.8 | 4,000 | If you can afford it, taking a very good Tennessee defense that is getting to face Mac Jones needs to be strongly considered. Tennessee gives up the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season, but if there is one critique of them it is that they only have 26 sacks on the season which is 8th-worst in the NFL this season. |
| 2 | Las Vegas | 7.3 | 3,100 | Say what you want about the Raiders, but they're playing hard. This is a defense that sacked Patrick Mahomes II five times last week. Facing Tampa Bay who we know Baker Mayfield has had interception problems throwing 11 on the season, could allow for a solid floor game for the Raiders this week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 131.9)
- QB Jameis Winston, CLE, $6,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,200
- RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, $5,200
- WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $6,800
- Flex Saquon Barkley, PHI, $10,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,100
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.1
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Aidan O’Connell, LV, $6,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,200
- RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, $5,200
- WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,100
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,700
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,400
- TE Cade Otton, TB, $5,600
- Flex Saquon Barkley, PHI, $10,000
- TD Tennessee, $4,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,200
- RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, $5,200
- WR Jerry Jeudy, CLE, $6,100
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500
- WR Puca Nacua, LAR, $8,600
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $6,200
- Flex Zach Charbonnet, SEA, $,300
- TD Tennessee, $4,000
