Sunday Morning Update
There are two main questions that I’m evaluating as I update this roster this morning.
- Should I be paying up for Burrow when Sam Darnold provides a savings that would allow you to move away from at least one of the receivers in the Bills/49ers game. While the snow in that game is supposed to miss the stadium, it’s also entirely possible that we’re dealing with cold, windy, and snowy conditions depending on how accurate the meteorology forecasts are. While the game total has not changed, having two players in these conditions seems like it might be too much.
- Saquon Barkley. The Joe Mixon play last week has broke my brain. Is Saquon another trap going up against a good defense that can largely shut him down. At the same time, both Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams have significant questions. For me, it’s either Bijan or Saquon, as while Kyren could score 3 touchdowns today, the decrease in workload combined with Puka and Cooper Kupp being healthy just has me down on his overall production.
Where it really comes down to, is that Robinson is likely going to be much more popular than Barkley. Maybe it is playing it too conservatively, but by going down to him and then down to Sam Darnold it allows me some massive upgrades at the wide receiver position. I can completely move away from the Shakir/Jennings of the world and go up and get two unquestioned number one receivers in Brian Thomas and George Pickens. I thought about downgrading Jacksonville’s defense to go and get Tee Higgins, but they’re a clear number one for me this week at just $3,200 with Stroud on the road and the struggles he has had.
Primary Cash Lineup
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,200
- RB Alvin Kamra, NO, $8,300
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $7,300
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,300
- WR Brian Thomas Jr, JAC, $6,700
- WR George Pickens, PIT, $7,400
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,100
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,500
- TD Jacksonville, $3,200
Check back around 10:30AM EST for any changes to the Primary Cash Game Lineup or overall Slate thoughts.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Baltimore (vs PHI) – 26.75 points
- Tampa Bay (vs CAR) – 26.25 points
- LA Rams (at NO) – 25.75 points
- Buffalo (vs SF) – 25.75 points
- LA Chargers (at ATL) – 25 points
- Washington (vs TEN) – 25 points
- Cincinnati (vs PIT) – 25 points
Week 12 Recap
Week 12 was another difficult week, taking the Primary Cash Lineup to 7-5 on the season. The process was better than Week 11, which was a disaster, but the results remained the same. The issue was Josh Jacobs was incredibly popular against the 49ers and had a career game with 106 yards and 3 touchdowns. In that matchup, Jacobs really should not have been 50-60% rostered, but he was the only viable running back between 7k-8k that fit into most rosters so the optimizers plugged him in.
My Joe Mixon curse continues, as throughout his career, I don’t think I’ve ever got him right. To pay $9,300 for a running back for a team that scores 27 points is typically something you’re going to feel good about. Instead, he had just 22 yards on 14 carries. Finally, Anthony Richardson. He played so much better than his overall stat line that he ended up with. A wide open dropped touchdown that was perfectly thrown, plenty of penalties that killed drives, and great throws that just were dropped. This easily could have been a 20-25 performance if played again tomorrow, so from that standpoint, I don’t hate the play at that price point.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- J.K. Dobbins will miss this week. We should see a split backfield of Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal this week. Vidal at $4,300 is at least intriguing as a deep play, but neither of these guys are likely going to be players that you’re going to want to roster for Week 13. Take a wait and see approach on this backfield.
- Josh Downs will miss this week with a shoulder injury. This should benefit Michael Pittman Jr who had 6 of the team’s 11 completions last week. He’s a little bit higher priced than we’d like to see, but could be a GPP play stacked with Anthony Richardson.
- The Jaguars will get Trevor Lawrence back for Week 13. With a depleted receiving corp of Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk both on IR, this should open up opportunity for Brian Thomas Jr. to be the lone receiver for the Jaguars. Thomas is under-priced at just $6,700 given recent struggles with Mac Jones at quarterback.
- Breece Hall is questionable with a knee injury. If he were to miss, Braelon Allen would vault up to one of the top plays of the week.
- Austin Ekeler is out with a concussion. This should help Brian Robinson Jr get a little more volume this week. The problem is that they’re facing one of the league’s best run-stopping units as the Titans have been dominant as of late.
Week 13 Slate Thoughts
I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Apologies for the late article this week, Thanksgiving is always a challenging week covering that slate and then quickly transitioning to this one along with mandatory family obligations.
This is a narrow slate, meaning there are not a lot of great options given the Thanksgiving slate, the Friday game, and the Monday game taking away a lot of the players that we’ve become accustomed to playing over the last several weeks. At the wide receiver position, it’s going to be difficult to spend up, as there are essentially no running backs that are worth playing that are less than $7k this week. That’s going to force lineups to look relatively similar with low-end wide receivers, high-end running backs, and a mid/low priced quarterback. This can make these types of weeks a little more volatile, as the difference between players like Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and Kyren Williams are just percentage points on who is going to find the end-zone.
The big question will be whether the defenses or offenses win out in this Philadelphia vs Baltimore game. It has the potential to be the highest-scoring game of the week, but they have two elite defenses that could also turn it into a slog of a game.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Sam Darnold | 19.1 | $7,200 | The Vikings finally found their offense last week. They're accepting of the ways that defenses are covering Justin Jefferson and have incorporated Jordan Addison and now T.J. Hockenson into their offense both who had 100 yards last week. Darnold has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of his last five games, while throwing for at least 240 yards in six straight games. He gives you a solid floor and a 300+ passing upside that we saw last week. At $7,200 he's simply underpriced. |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | 21.6 | $8,300 | The Bengals passing attack is the hottest in the NFL in recent weeks. Over the last two games, Joe Burrow is averaging 392 passing yards per game and has thrown 7 touchdowns in those two games, while throwing 12 in his last three games. While one of those was against the Ravens secondary who is one of the worst in the NFL, last week they torched the Chargers. Facing Pittsburgh, who's overall numbers against quarterbacks have been good, but they've faced one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. The best passing quarterback that they faced torched them, as Dak Prescott threw for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns. |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | 17.8 | $7,400 | The Rams passing attack is peaking at the right time. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back healthy, the Rams have found a way to incorporate both receivers consistently into the passing attack. Stafford has thrown for 290 or more yards in three of his last four games and is facing a Saints defense that has been one of the worst defenses all season. This is an offense that could very easily throw for 3-4 touchdowns and 300+ yards especially if the Saints offense is able to do anything to keep the Rams throwing throughout the game. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Chase Brown | 17.1 | 7300 | Don't overthink this one. With Chase Brown, you're getting a player who has averaged 27 touches per game over the last three weeks since Zack Moss got injured. The Steelers matchup is largely a neutral one, but they have allowed 15 or more FanDuel points to seven of the last eight running backs that they've faced. While Khalil Herbert could start to eat into the workload for Brown, he's seen just 6 total snaps in the two games with the Bengals this season. |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | 18.8 | 8300 | The game plan for the Saints is going to be pretty clear after what Saquon Barkley just did to this Rams defense. Barkley had 26 carries for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints are extremely limited in offensive weapons as it is primarily just Kamara and Taysom Hill at this point of the season. Over the last three games, Kamara has at least 20 touches per game while averaging 26 touches per contest. Coming off of a bye, Kamara should be well rested to once again handle a big workload. The only concern this week is that he has not scored a touchdown in his last five games. He has 14 red zone opportunities over the last three games, so the touchdown upside should certainly be there this week. |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | 17.2 | 8400 | The Rams should be able to move the ball however they want against the Saints who have one of the league's worst defenses. The big question this week is what Kyren Williams we get. Whether we get the player who averaged 23 touches over his first nine games of the season or if he will continue to be the guy who is averaging just 17 touches per game over the last three games. With Puca Nakua, Cooper Kupp and the passing game having success, it seems that there is a likely chance that Williams' touches will remain lower than earlier this year. At $8,400, expect him to be popular this week given his touchdown upside as he could easily score two touchdowns in this favorable matchup against one of the league's worst run defenses, but it certainly is concerning that he does not have a passing target over the last two weeks. |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley | 20.4 | 9200 | Look, the matchup is a difficult one, but how do you not trust Barkley to have a massive performance this week against anyone? The key here is the price. While Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs with 61, they are also allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to the position. The question you need to ask this week is whether you can find an additional $700 for a player like Barkley compared to Bijan Robinson as your top running back on this slate who is facing the Chargers who are allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. No one is going to play Barkley in a cash or cash + game which could give you a massive advantage this week. |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | 19.6 | 8500 | Bijan Robinson is going to be popular this week given the Chargers difficulty in stopping the run last week against Derrick Henry allowing 140 rushing yards to one of the league's best running backs. However, at $8,500, you're paying a lot for a running back who has just 100 yards twice this season and just seven touchdowns on the year. For Robinson, the two times that he has topped 100 yards were against two of the league's worst run defenses in New Orleans and Seattle (pre-Ernest Jones IV acquisition). Even with the struggles to stop Derrick Henry, the Chargers have been one of the better run-stopping units in the NFL this season. With Robinson's dynamic rushing and pass catching ability, he has the upside to have a big game against anyone, but is risky at $8,500 this week. |
| 6 | Chuba Hubbard | 15.9 | 7400 | Despite the league's most difficult matchup last week against Kansas City, Hubbard still performed with 58 rushing yards and a touchdown. While 58 yards may not seem like a lot, it is the most that Kansas City has allowed all season. This week, he will get to face a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. While Jonathon Brooks has returned from his torn ACL, he played in just 8% of snaps and it seems like they are going to slowly integrate the rookie running back especially given that they signed Chuba Hubbard to an extension. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Ladd McConkey | 12.7 | 630 | This is a misprice due to the role changing from a primetime game. Ladd McConkey is averaging 103 yards over his last two games, and with J.K. Dobbins out it is going to force the Chargers into a more pass heavy approach. At $6,300, you're getting a player who has 80 yards or more in each of those two games. You just aren't going to get a player at $6,300 with that high of a floor. |
| 2 | Tee Higgins | 9.7 | 7,600 | Tee Higgins seems to finally be healthy for the first time in nearly two seasons. Last week, after returning from injury, Higgins had 148 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. He now has 75 yards or more in each of his four games dating back to before the injury. He's not on the injury report this week, which is a great sign that he's good to go. Pittsburgh has allowed a receiver to top 80 yards in three of the last four games. |
| 3 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 14.5 | 6700 | With Trevor Lawrence back this week, Brian Thomas Jr. is likely going to step into a big role as Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are on IR. The remainder of the Jaguars receiving options is amongst the worst in the NFL as they have Parker Washington and Tim Jones. Thomas should be in line for 10+ targets this week and has the upside to get behind the Texans pass defense for a big play this week. |
| 4 | Jauan Jennings | 12.7 | 6,100 | With Brock Purdy returning at quarterback for the 49ers, it should greatly help Jauan Jennings this week. In the last two games with Purdy as the starter, Jennings had 90 yards or more in both games with 11 targets in each game. Jennings will be the top target for Purdy for the remainder of the year with Deebo Samuel Sr. struggling, and Brandon Aiyuk out for the year. When comparing Jennings to a player like Shakir, Jennings despite missing a month of the season due to injury and starting behind Aiyuk and Samuel does have 12 red zone targets to Shakir's 8 this year. |
| 5 | George Pickens | 13.6 | 7,400 | For Pickens, this is a matchup that he should be able to take advantage of this week. Cincinnati has been torched by receivers as of late as they've allowed a 100 yard receiver in three of their last four games, while allowing 80 yards or more to six receiver in their last five games. After an altercation with a fan last week after the Browns game, Pickens should be in a spot to rebound as he had 70 yards or more in the three games prior to the Thursday Night blizzard game in Cleveland. He's the only reliable receiver that this team has, and with a game that could end up being a shootout, expect Pickens to near 12 targets that we saw against Baltimore in Week 11. |
| 6 | Khalil Shakir | 11.7 | 6,200 | Khalil Shakir is the type of player who is just a filler guy on FanDuel. He has a high floor, with 50 yards or more in each of his last five games, but he's not a guy that you can overly get excited about in your lineup. With Keon Coleman back this week, it is a significant touchdown equity hit for Shakir who has just four red zone targets all season when Coleman is in the lineup. With just two touchdowns on the year, and averaging just 10.7 yards per catch, he's a guy that if you need to save some money won't kill you, but it's unlikely that he will be the reason for a victory this week. |
| 7 | Davante Adams | 12.4 | 7,000 | Davante Adams has been up and down throughout the season since being acquired from Las Vegas. He has yet to have that breakout performance despite averaging 10.3 targets per game. With Breece Hall less than 100%, and with the Jets coming off of a bye, this could be a week wher ethe Jets look to fully integrate Adams against the a Seahawks defense that is quickly becoming one of the most improve run-stopping units in football whcih could force the Jets to take a pass heavy approach this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Hunter Henry | 9.1 | 5,100 | At $5,100, the only knock on Hunter Henry is the lack of touchdowns as he has just one touchdown on the season. He does have seven red zone targets over the last three games and leads the team over the course of the season. Henry has a high floor this week as he has five or more receptions in five of his last six games while topping at least 40 yards in six of his last seven. |
| 2 | Trey McBride | 12.6 | 6,900 | Trey McBride had 15 targets last week catching 12 of those passes as he continues to be the top receiver for the Cardinals due to Marvin Harrison Jr.'s rookie struggles. Minnesota has struggled against the pass for most of the season, and while they've had strong numbers against the tight end position, they've faced a very weak schedule. The three receiving tight ends that they've faced have all topped 50 yards as Tyler Conklin, George Kittle, and Cole Kmet all topped the milestone. McBride has an upside that could be well worth paying up for the $6,900 price. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jacksonville | 8.5 | 3,200 | C.J. Stroud has struggled this season. He's been sacked 8, 4, 1, 4 times over the last four games while throwing 5 interceptions over the last three games. Coming off of a bye is always a risky proposition for a team that has nothing to play for, but Stroud has always been a quarterback who has struggled on the road as he is 1.4 yards per attempt worse on the road and 4% lower completion percentage. |
| 2 | Carolina | 7.2 | 3,000 | Despite all of the Panthers issues this season, this is a team that has not quit which is what you're looking for at $3,000. Having won two of their last three and taking the Chiefs down to the wire, they are not going to have a complete collapse like the Giants last week. The Panthers sacked Patrick Mahomes II five times last week, and are facing a Buccaneers team that are spiraling out of control a little bit as they've lost ur of their last five with their lone win being against the Giants last week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.7)-
- QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $8,300
- RB Alvin Kamra, NO, $8,300
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $7,300
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,300
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,200
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,100
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,100
- Flex Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,200
- TD Jacksonville, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.9
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,200
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $7,300
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,300
- WR Brian Thomas Jr.., JAC, $6,700
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,100
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,900
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,500
- TD Jacksonville, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.7)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,200
- RB Saquon Barkley, PHI, $9,200
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $7,300
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,300
- WR Brian Thomas Jr.., JAC, $6,700
- WR Jauan Jennings, SF, $6,100
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,100
- Flex Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,500
- TD Jacksonville, $3,200
