Sunday Morning Update
No update this week. I've thought about the risk that Joe Mixon has compared to a player like Christian McCaffrey who will be higher owned, however I'm more comfortable with Mixon especially as Trent Williams is less than 100%. Tony Pollard also could get popular this week, but with him only having 9 carries in each of the last two games, along with having two Titans is not something that I'm personally interested in. Good luck everyone!
- QB Anthony Richardson, IND, $7,500
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $9,100
- RB Kareem Hunt, KC, $7,500
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,500
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $5,400
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,200
- Flex Joe Mixon, HOU, $9,300
- TD NY Giants, $3,300
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs IND) – 29.0 points
- Washington (vs DAL) – 27.5 points
- Philadelphia (at LAR) – 26.5 points
- Miami (vs NE) – 26.5 points
- Kansas City (at CAR) – 25.5 points
Week 11 Recap
Week 11 was a disaster, taking the Primary Cash Lineup to 7-4 during the season. I posted the following on my Twitter account, and I still stand by it almost a week later. I simply failed everyone who followed this article last week. It was one of the worst weeks that I’ve had over the last 9 years that I’ve been doing this article. Not going to waste a lot of time even dissecting it. Drake Maye was the highlight and the only good play, but even then, playing him over a player like Justin Herbert or Bo Nix, who made up about 75% of the roster percentage.
I’ve always been someone who beats to my own drum when it comes to roster building. I started playing DFS in 2010 and have been working with Footballguys since 2015. Not following the industry consensus is critical to have successful years. Some weeks, my lineups may end up similar to the consensus, and most weeks, there will be some unique plays where I may be different than the consensus. When that happens, you can look really smart, and we celebrate those weeks, but when the consensus crushes it and my unique plays fail to meet expectations, it is going to end badly.
To my knowledge, no one else in the industry posts and tracks their results each and every week. I believe transparency is critically important, and having that trust from each and every one of you that are spending money with Footballguys is why we do this.
Thank you for coming back to read this article after last week. It’s only upward from here.
Total points scored- 88.18
Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Drake Maye, NE, $6,700- 18.98
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200- 10.9
- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,800- 12.6
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500- 11.0
- WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, $4,900- 5.3
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,400- 7.8
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400- 1.8
- Flex Chase Brown, CIN, $6,800- 16.8
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000- 3.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Brock Purdy will not play this week. This is a big downgrade to all players in the San Francisco offense, but likely also on the Green Bay passing offense, as it should ultimately lead to a slower-paced game. Brandon Allen at $6k could be a GPP play, as he did have a 371 passing-yard performance back in 2020, but his floor is just too low to trust in cash.
- The New York Giants are going with Tommy DeVito this week after releasing Daniel Jones this week. At $6k, he’s likely going to get some interest, especially since he’s only $4k on DraftKings, and we’ve seen people, for some reason, play FanDuel identically to DraftKings. Playing DeVito is a mistake, even though the matchup is favorable against Tampa Bay.
- Devonta Smith will miss this week with a hamstring injury. At $8,500, A.J. Brown is expensive but should be the primary receiver in a potential high-scoring game between the Eagles and Rams this week.
- Mike Evans looks like he will be returning this week, as he was a full participant on Thursday and a limited participant on Friday. At $8k, he’s a little too expensive for a player who may still be less than 100%.
- Bucky Irving is questionable with a toe injury. It’s very unlikely that he would miss this week, but if, for some reason, he did, Rachaad White would be one of the best plays on this slate.
- Both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White look like they will miss this week. Dylan Laube is priced at a minimum of $4k, while Ameer Abdullah is only $5k. It would seem likely that Abdullah would get the majority of the work.
Week 12 Thoughts:
Week 12 is a crossroads week for this article. At 7-4 for the season, there is a massive difference between 8-4 and 7-5 in terms of profitability for the overall season. Admittedly, if not for writing this article, this might be a week that I would have taken off simply to clear my mind and reset, but instead, I’ve spent about 18 hours on this trying to figure out what to do.
The big question this week is what to do at the quarterback position. It’s easy to sit and point at Brandon Allen as a guy at $6k who has all the weapons around him in San Francisco and wants to target him. However, this is a player who had equally great weapons in Cincinnati, and in his six career starts with the Bengals threw for over 250 yards once and threw for multiple touchdowns just once. Expect him to be popular this week because we have had a lot of “DraftKings” effects in recent weeks.
What is the “DraftKings” effect? This is a major reason why FanDuel has been so much more profitable than DraftKings over the last several seasons. 90% + of podcasts label themselves as DFS podcasts (including Footballguys), yet they only talk about the best plays on DraftKings. This is similar to advice articles, where someone is asked to cover the entire DFS slate, but because of laziness, minimal compensation, or just naivety, they will list a player as a good play on both sites, as very few players actually understand the complexities between the two sites. For example, Brandon Allen on DraftKings this week is $4,000 on a $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings (8%); on FanDuel, he’s $6,000 on a $60,000 cap (10%). However, as we look even more into this, on DraftKings, you can get a mid-price quarterback in the $5,600 range, so by going down to Allen, you’re saving $1,600 (3.2%) of the cap, while on FanDuel, you can get a competitive quarterback for $7,400 with a savings of $1,400 (2.3% cap savings). Therefore, it’s going to be less advantageous to spend all the way down at quarterback on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings, simply because the savings that you’re getting are a smaller percentage of the cap.
So, if we aren’t playing Allen, where do we go? For this week, I’m just playing upside. I’ve admittedly struggled with a bit of self-doubt this week and am just throwing caution to the wind. Anthony Richardson, at $7,500 after he looked great against a Jets defense that has been good against the pass for most of the season last week, simply has more upside than Geno Smith, who has thrown for multiple touchdowns just twice all season.
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Anthony Richardson | 20.7 | $7,500 | For Richardson, the question is whether he did enough last week to give confidence in starting him. He's amongst the most risky quarterbacks in the NFL, as we saw his upside last week when he ran for two touchdowns, but prior to his benching he completed just 31% of his passes in an NFL game. There's just not quarterbacks that make you feel great this week, so taking a player who is going to be forced to throw the ball heavily as Detroit has one of the league's best run defenses should give him some upside. Detroit has also struggled against mobile quarterbacks and their rushing ability. With Alex Anzalone out, that should also impact their ability to limit Richardson's rushing upside. |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | 22.3 | $9,000 | Dallas is very much on quit watch. At 3-7, with Dak Prescott out for the year, this is a team that has allowed 34 points in each of their last two games. For the Commanders, they need to get right after Jayden Daniels has not looked right since suffering his rib injury. Daniels has faced Pittsburgh and Philadelphia over the last two weeks, and will be a significant matchup upgrade this week with Dallas. He's likely more of a GPP play than a cash game play just due to the risk and the price, but he has as much upside as any quarterback on this slate. |
| 3 | Geno Smith | 19.4 | $7,400 | What you're getting with Geno Smith is consistency. He's not going to be a quarterback who kills you as he has 16 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. Expect him to be the most popular player on this slate at the quarterback position, but there are some concerns here. Over the last four weeks, the Cardinals have completely shut down Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert as Herbert led the group with 17.8 FanDuel points and the group averaged just 11.4 points per game. Smith has just two games this season with multi-passing touchdowns, and has thrown five interceptions over his last three games. This is still a quarterback who is slightly under-priced that will be in one of the highest scoring games of the week, and for that he will be popular, but he does come with some risk. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | De'Von Achane | 19.7 | 9100 | New England has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. With Jabrill Peppers suspended, Raekwon McMillan cut, and Ja'Whaun Bentley on IR, this team has no capable run-stoppers. Since Peppers was suspended, the Patriots are allowing 136 rushing yards per game. Achane has been a volume machine, as he has 20 touches in two of his last three games and Achane has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games. |
| 2 | Kareem Hunt | 15.7 | 7500 | With Isiah Pacheco out for another week, you're getting the lead running back for the Chiefs who are now facing the Panthers after their first loss. The Chiefs should be able to do just about whatever they want against this team. Hunt struggled last week, but at $7,500, you're getting a player who has at least 20 touches in three of his last four games facing the worst run defense in the NFL. |
| 3 | James Conner | 17.6 | 7600 | The Seahawks are a difficult defense to figure out. They've made significant in-season changes to their personnel and so far the results have shown some promise as they held both Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey to mediocre days. This is still a defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry on the season with glaring holes along the defensive line. With Conner, you're getting a volatile player, but he does have over 100 total yards in three of his last four games, and has at least 17 touches in six of his last seven outings. |
| 4 | Joe Mixon | 20.4 | 9300 | Mixon has been incredible in 2024. He has at least 20 carries in each of his last five games, has scored 10 touchdowns in his 8 games this season including a touchdown in each of his last six games. Facing a Titans defense that have solid numbers, but have faced one of the weakest opposing running back schedules on the season. We did see both Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs who are the two best running backs that they've faced both have big games against them. |
| 5 | Christian McCaffrey | 17.8 | 9500 | Christian McCaffrey is going to draw a lot of attention this week due to the injury to Brock Purdy. However, the question that we need to ask ourselves is whether this is a good thing that he's going to draw so much attention. Certainly the Packers know that the one player they need to prioritize is stopping McCaffrey, and even with Purdy we haven't seen McCaffrey dominate including a matchup last week against Seattle that should have been extremely favorable. He does not have a carry longer than 13 yards in his two games, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry compared to a career average of 4.7, and he has a history of getting re-injured after coming back from an injury as the two times in his career that he had extended absences he was then hurt again within the next four weeks. |
| 6 | Ameer Abdullah | 8.9 | 5000 | Even as a part time player, Ameer Abdullah has caught three or more passes in four of his last six games. With no Alexander Mattison or Zamir White this week, Abdullah should see 70-80% of the snaps and likely get 10 touches with 4-5 receptions. At $5k, Abdullah allows you to spend up elsewhere on a week where there is not a lot of value. |
| 7 | Rico Dowdle | 10.8 | 6300 | If you can't find the stomach to go all the way down to Ameer Abdullah, Rico Dowdle is a secondary cheap play that could be in line for a big day this week. For Dowdle, at 6,300, the big question will be whether Dallas can remain competitive in this game, or if the team has fully quit. The Cowboys have had just two games over the last five where they did not lose by 20+ and in those games, Dowdle had over 100 total yards in both of them. In a favorable rushing matchup against Washington who has one one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, you're accepting some risk here, but it could pay off if Dallas can stay within the 10.5 point spread. |
| 8 | Tony Pollard | 13.7 | 6500 | Pollard is going to be popular simply because of his price at $6,500. However, over the last two weeks, he has just nine carries in each of those two games. He's facing another great run-stopping units this week in Houston. This is just a stay-away unless you have to go down to him. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Calvin Ridley | 12.3 | 6300 | Ridley was close to another massive game last week. After a touchdown that was called back due to penalty, Ridley finished with 58 yards on 4 receptions. Ridley has now topped 50 yards in each of his last four games, while averaging 90 yards per game since the team traded DeAndre Hopkins. |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | 16.2 | 8,500 | With no Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown is underpriced at $8,500. Brown should have a significant advantage over the Rams corners who are among the worst in the NFL. If the Rams put their number one corner Darious Williams on Brown, Brown will have a 6 inch and 40 pound advantage over the small Williams, but they may need to try it as Cobie Durant is unable to cover Brown in this game. |
| 3 | Courtland Sutton | 12.6 | 7,100 | Courtland Sutton and the Broncos offense has been more than capable over the last four weeks. Sutton has 70 yards or more in each of his last four games, as consistency has been the issue throughout most of his career, but with Bo Nix' development has alleviated a lot of those issues. While he's still capable of the deep plays that we've become accustomed to, he's also been extremely productive in more of the possession routes as of late as he has averaged seven receptions per game over the last four weeks which he had seven receptions just once in his first seven games of the season. |
| 4 | Jakobi Meyers | 12.2 | 6,400 | What you're getting in Jakobi Meyers is a low ceiling, high-floor type player. At $6,200, he provides a little bit of savings compared to the mid-6k range, but he's a guy who has 50 yards or more in four of his last five games with the only game failing to do so being a game he had 49 yards. The only issue for Meyers is the lack of touchdowns as he has just two on the season, but this is a player who scored 8 in 2023, so the ability is there, especially with Gardner Minshew II back at quarterback after being temporarily benched for Desmond Ridder. |
| 5 | Josh Downs | 12.1 | 6,900 | Joe Flacco showed Anthony Richardson the blueprint. Figure out a way to get Josh Downs the ball who has emerged as the top receiver in Indianapolis this season. After struggling to create a connection with Richardson earlier this season, Downs had 5 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown last week against the Jets, and it will be crucial that the Colts throw the ball to keep pace against the Lions this week. |
| 6 | Rome Odunze | 9.3 | 5,400 | If you're looking for a low-priced receiver, Odunze could be that guy this week. We've seen rookie receivers develop at various paces, but for Odunze, he is coming off a 10 target performance, and has at least 60 yards in two of his last three games with 40 yards or more in five of his last six. Odunze is second on the team in red zone targets this season behind D.J. Moore. With Keenan Allen not 100% healthy, the Bears are likely going to look at Odunze or D.J. Moore, and there's no reason that Odunze should be $600 cheaper here. |
| 7 | Puka Nacua | 15.4 | 8,600 | Nacua has been tremendous since returning from injury. Nacua has 98 yards or more in three of his four games back and this week the Rams are taking on an Eagles team that have one of the league's best run-stopping units which should encourage a pass-heavy game plan against the Eagles on Sunday Night. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Hunter Henry | 8.3 | 5,200 | Henry continues to be underpriced. At $5,200, you're getting a player who has five or more catches and 40 or more yards in four of his last five games. He's not likely to have the upside as some of the higher priced tight ends, but this is a spot we need to save salary at this week. |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | 11.7 | 7,200 | Kelce had a brutal game last week with just 1.8 FanDuel points. However, at $7,200, you're still getting a player who had 12 targets in each of his three prior games. The Chiefs should be able to do just about whatever they want against this Panthers defense this week. Expect a bounce-back game from Kelce as the Chiefs were not able to consistently throw the ball last week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | New York Giants | 8.5 | 3,300 | Somehow, the New York Giants have the second-most sacks in the NFL this season. While their run defense has been atrocious, this is a team that invested heavily in the offseason to rush the passer with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence II, and Azeez Ojulari who have 21 sacks between the three of them. |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 10.3 | 4,000 | If you can find a way to spend up to Green Bay, you'll get the benefit of them being underpriced as they prepare to take on Brandon Allen on the road. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he is breaking down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s on a weekly basis.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.5)-
- QB Anthony Richardson, IND, $7,500
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $9,100
- RB Kareem Hunt, KC, $7,500
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,500
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $5,400
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,200
- Flex Joe Mixon, HOU, $9,300
- TD NY Giants, $3,300
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 123.3)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Geno Smith, SEA, $7,500
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $9,100
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $6,500
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $8,500
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $5,400
- WR Courtland Sutton, DEN, $7,100
- TE Hunter Henry, NE, $5,200
- Flex Kareem Hunt, KC, $7,500
- TD NY Giants, $3,300
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 124.1)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Anthony Richardson, IND, $7,500
- RB Ameer Abdullah, LV, $5,000
- RB Josh Jacobs, GB, $7,600
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,500
- WR Courtland Sutton, DEN, $7,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,300
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,200
- Flex Joe Mixon, HOU, $9,300
- TD NY Giants, $3,300
