Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update: 9:49 AM EST.
With George Kittle out, this should benefit the remaining pieces in the San Francisco offense in Week 11. Christian McCaffrey should get an even bigger workload, while Jauan Jennings and Ricky Persall may end up getting an extra target or two. However, there's no change to the primary cash lineup. While taking Drake Maye and Kayshon Boutte could be a risk, I don't believe there's a significant advantage in taking one of the $6,200 priced receivers and then downgrading Travis Kelce. Based on current trends, this should be a massive game for Kelce, who I'll be getting at a discounted ownership this week as most are going to look at Will Dissly or Dawson Knox and then pay up at that third receiver spot to a Davante Adams or create a more balanced lineup.
G
- QB Drake Maye, NE, $6,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,800
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500
- WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, $4,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400
- Flex Chase Brown, CIN, $6,800
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs JAC) – 30.5 points
- San Francisco (vs SEA) – 28.0 points
- Miami (vs LV) – 26.0 points
- Baltimore (at PIT) – 25.25 points
Week 10 Recap
Week 10 was a pretty easy week, taking the Primary Cash Lineup to 7-3 on the season. The Sunday Morning Update decision to include Travis Kelce was a crucial one as he was less than 10% rostered, along with Bijan Robinson, who was less than 20% rostered. Both players had strong outings, putting up 47.3 of the 116.06 total team points. The strategy of taking three Chargers ended up being a mistake. If you told me that they put up 27 points, I would do that all over again. Justin Herbert was great at $6,900 putting up 19.76 points, but it was Dobbins and Ladd McConkey who struggled. Dobbins was vultured on the goal line by Hassan Haskins which crushed the value of the running back. Meanwhile McConkey just never got involved in the game. The Chargers only threw the ball 18 times as they held firm control of the game. The biggest mistake last week was not playing Calvin Ridley at $5,800. He was fantastic last week with 84 yards and 2 touchdowns as he put aside most of the Will Levis fears that I had heading into Week 10. Either way, it was a winning week this week. Still a long way to go, this season, it’s good to have an easy week despite not everything going perfectly.
Total points scored- 116.06
Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Justin Herbert, LAC, $6,900- 19.76
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,500-13.4
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,800- 30.9
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,200- 8.8
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, KC, $6,000- 7.6
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,300- 6.2
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,000- 16.4
- Flex RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC, $7,300- 7.0
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000- 6.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Tee Higgins will play this week for the Bengals. While this helps Joe Burrow, it will decrease the interest in Ja’Marr Chase coming off of his record-setting performance against Baltimore. Chase is an intriguing GPP play as he has consistently had better performances with Higgins in the lineup than with him out despite his game last week.
- Buffalo’s situation is a bit of a mess. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have both already been ruled out. Amari Cooper is trending towards playing, but is still questionable for this week. This leaves Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir as tremendous plays this week despite a difficult matchup against Kansas City.
- Sam LaPorta is out with a shoulder injury. In a game that the Lions should be able to win fairly easily, this is a minor upgrade to the rushing attack as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown.
- Trevor Lawrence will miss once again this week with a shoulder injury. Mac Jones will get the start, which will severely limit the upside of the Jacksonville offense as they were simply unable to move the ball against Minnesota last week.
Week 11 Thoughts:
Coming shortly
Player Pool:
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jameis Winston | 17.0 | $7,200 | We've seen what Jameis Winston can do in a favorable matchup. Against the Ravens, he threw for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Saints have been torched against capable quarterbacks over the last six weeks. They're allowed 331 (Mahomes), 325 and 4 touchdowns (Mayfield), 279 and 2 touchdowns (Herbert), and 306 (Cousins). With Winston this is a revenge game which he's going to take seriously given the Saints released him this offseason. |
| 2 | Anthony Richardson | 17.3 | $6,400 | The big question this week is whether we have the ability to stomach playing Anthony Richardson regardless of the price. At $6,400, you're looking at the Jets and how they struggled with the mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray last week. The Jets have allowed 20 FanDuel points or more to three quarterbacks this season all who had mobility, and if Richardson is going to succeed this week, he's going to need to do so with his legs. His floor is about as low as it can be, but all you need is 200 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, and one touchdown and he will hit value. |
| 3 | Drake Maye | 17.3 | $6,700 | Drake Maye is essentially Bo Nix at this point, except $700 cheaper and in a better matchup against the Rams. What's intriguing about Maye this week is not necessarily his passing upside even though he has thrown for over 200 yards three out of his four games including a 276 yard 2 touchdown performance against Jacksonville. However, what's intriguing is his rushing upside. Maye has run for at least 30 yards in 3 games this season while topping 40 in two of his last three, including a 95-yard rushing performance against the Titans. He's similar to Richardson in that he does not have a massive ceiling that some other quarterbacks may have, but to hit cash game value he does not need to do much. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | 19.7 | 8200 | At $8,200, Kamara's price continues to be too low. Kamara has 15 or more FanDuel points in five of his last six games even with scoring just one touchdown over that six game stretch. With Cleveland coming off of a bye, we don't know where their mental space is for a 2-7 team this season. They had the emotional divisional win in Week 8 against Baltimore, and then allowed the Chargers to run all over them as J.K. Dobbins had 85 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in the 27-10 blowout victory. |
| 2 | Nick Chubb | 12.1 | 6200 | Nick Chubb has struggled in his first three games this season as he's averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. However, there's some caveats here. Chubb faced two of the best run defenses in the NFL over the last two games, and the other game was with Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing a majority of the game due to Deshaun Watson's injury. Chubb is the only running back to top 50 yards against Baltimore, and last week against a very good Chargers defense the game script just did not comply as the Browns went down 20-3 in the first half. This week, Chubb gets New Orleans which is an incredible matchup. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Since Week 5, New Orleans is allowing the most fantays points to opposing running backs and have allowed 7 running backs to top 14 FanDuel points in six games. |
| 3 | Chase Brown | 14.7 | 6800 | At $6,800, Chase Brown needs to be in consideration despite the matchup. Over the last two weeks, Brown has 22 and 32 touches. Last week against the Ravens, the Bengals found little success running the ball as Brown ran the ball only 13 times for 42 yards and a touchdown, but he added 9 receptions for 52 yards finishing the day with 19.9 FanDuel points. If he can do that against Baltimore who have one of the two best run defenses in the league, he should have upside this week against the Chargers who are allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. |
| 4 | D'Andre Swift | 13.0 | 7100 | The Packers defense is a solid one, but they have been worse against the run than the pass this year. This season, Green Bay has allowed five running backs to top 100 total yards this season and are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. With the Bears offense struggling, they need to re-establish the run as D'Andre Swift from Weeks 5-8 averaged 21.3 touches, 133 total yards, and four touchdowns. With new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, the Bears seem to have more energy this week and are saying all of the right things. |
| 5 | Christian McCaffrey | 18.3 | 9800 | If you can fit Christian McCaffrey into your lineup, you strongly want to consider it, even if the price is prohibitive this week. Seattle's run defense is an absolute joke this season. They cut their leading tackler and play caller this week and will be relying on Ernest Jones IV who has been with the team for just three weeks and Tyrice Rice who is a fourth-round rookie linebacker. On the year, Seattle is allowing 5.1 yards per carry, and since Week 6 have allowed 140 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. There was no easing back in for McCaffrey last week as he had 19 touches against a good Tampa Bay run defense and there's an expectation that those touches will grow in Week 11. $9,800 is a crazy price for a running back who had just 13.7 FanDuel points last week, but if there's someone that could put up 30+ this week, McCaffrey would be the top candidate to do so. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Khalil Shakir | 12.8 | 6500 | Khalil Shakir is still underpriced. At $6,500, you're getting a receiver who has at least 50 yards in each of his last four games. The Bills will be without Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, with Amari Cooper wearing a soft cast, but looking like he's going to play. With the Bills facing the Chiefs who have the best run defense in the NFL, they're going to need to throw the ball this week to keep up with the Chiefs offense. For the Bills to be competitive, it will need to be through Shakir this week. |
| 2 | Cedric Tillman | 12.8 | 6,500 | In the three games that the Browns have traded away Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman has 12, 9, and 11 targets. It's clear that the rebuilding Browns are going to be giving every opportunity for Tillman to develop into the top target in his second year after the Browns drafted him with the third-round pick. |
| 3 | Jakobi Meyers | 12.8 | 6,200 | What you're getting in Jakobi Meyers is a low ceiling, high-floor type player. At $6,200, he provides a little bit of savings compared to the mid-6k range, but he's a guy who has 50 yards or more in four of his last five games with the only game failing to do so being a game he had 49 yards. The only issue for Meyers is the lack of touchdowns as he has just two on the season, but this is a player who scored 8 in 2023, so the ability is there, especially with Gardner Minshew II back at quarterback after being temporarily benched for Desmond Ridder. |
| 4 | Calvin Ridley | 12.7 | 6,400 | It's full speed ahead for Calvin Ridley this week after he proved it last week that he can be productive with Will Levis at quarterback. Minnesota is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season as they've allowed five receivers to top 100 yards this season. Ridley has 8 or more targets in each of his last five games and with the DeAndre Hopkins trade is the only receiver that the Titans trust to consistently go to. Ridley still does have some risk here with Levis, but at the very least we know that he is going to be the top target and have upside. |
| 5 | Davante Adams | 13.9 | 7,400 | If you can find a way to break free from the mid-tier wide receivers a little bit, Davante Adams is a tremendous play this week against Indianapolis. Over the last two weeks, Adams has 13 and 11 targets, has scored one touchdown, and leads the team in red zone targets since his arrival as he has seven over the last four weeks. While the Jets season is all but over, they likely still believe if they win out they could make the playoffs, so at least for another week this is a team that offensively is safe to target. |
| 6 | Ladd McConkey | 11.3 | 6,300 | McConkey is once again in play this week at just $6,300. It's easy to overreact due to last week's performance where he had just two receptions, but the entire Chargers offense did not need to throw the ball as they threw just 18 times as they ran the ball 39 times. This game the Chargers will likely need to throw more heavily as it's unlikely that they'll have a first-half 10 point lead like they've had the last several weeks. The issue for McConkey is that there's a projected breakout coming in the models based on his target share % being high, but outside of his 111 yard 2 touchdown performance against the Saints back in Week 8, he hasn't topped 70 yards all season. |
| 7 | Kayshon Boutte | 7.7 | 4,900 | If you're looking to punt at the wide receiver position this week, Kayshon Boutte is likely to be that guy. Boutte has six targets in each of his last three games, and if you like Drake Maye this week he needs to be in strong consideration. This is a player that formed a bond with Maye while both players were on the second-team offense earlier this season, and Maye trusts him. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 12.3 | 7,400 | At $7,400, the price becomes a little more prohibitive, but he provides such a significant advantage at the tight end position this week. Kelce has 12, 16, and 12 targets over the last three games while scoring two touchdowns in those three games. With most of the other tight ends on this slate, you're accepting a very low floor as we saw last week with both Hunter Henry and Cade Otton. Kelce if you can afford him provides a significant gap compared to other tight ends and should be one of the better point per dollar plays this week. |
| 2 | Dawson Knox | 6.2 | 5,100 | If you want to punt at the tight end this week, Dawson Knox is the guy. With Dalton Kincaid out for Week 11, the Bills should rely on Knox to see an increase in workload. The issue for Knox is that on the season he does not have a game where he has more than three targets. His floor is very low, but this is a player who prior to Kincaid averaged 37 yards per game and a 50% touchdown rate. If he finds the end-zone in what should be a high-scoring game, he will easily pay off his $5,100 salary. If he doesn't score, it'll likely be difficult for him to reach value this week, so you'll need the savings to overperform their salaries. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Indianapolis | 8.8 | 3,300 | It's extremely unlikely that we will be able to pay up for any defense for most of the season. The Colts have been playing better as of late as we saw last week where they had 6 FanDuel points against the Bills despite giving up 30 actual points. Indianapolis sacked Josh Allen twice and had two interceptions. |
| 2 | New Orleans | 9.3 | 3,900 | While Jameis Winston brings a lot of good to an offense, we know the downside. Winston threw three interceptions and was sacked 6 times in his last game against the Chargers, and will have some extra motivation this week against the Saints his former team in New Orleans. The Saints defense has been bad for most of the season, but did have some extra life with the replacement of Dennis Allen as they sacked Kirk Cousins three times while also forcing an interception last week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based off of the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them as the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he is breaking down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s on a weekly basis.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.5)-
- QB Drake Maye, NE, $6,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,800
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500
- WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, $4,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400
- Flex Chase Brown, CIN, $6,800
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.0)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jameis Winston, CLE, $7,200
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,800
- WR Davante Adams, NYJ, $7,600
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,200
- WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, $6,500
- TE Dawson Knox, BUF, $5,100
- Flex Nick Chubb, CLE, $6,200
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 129.4)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $9,000
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $6,200
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,500
- WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, $4,900
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,200
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,400
- Flex Chase Brown, CIN, $6,800
- TD Indianapolis, $3,000