Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update #2: 11:54 AM EST
The big news this morning is Brian Robinson Jr and Amari Cooper are both out. This should be an upgrade to Austin Ekeler and Khalil Shakir.
Shakir is a better play than Calvin Ridley this week as he just feels safer in a better game environment with a better quarterback. Regarding Ekeler, the only move that could be made would to downgrade either Chase Brown or D'Andre Swift and upgrade Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
This has caused a complete shakeup in the lineup that I'm now building both CeeDee Lamb and Alvin Kamara in the same lineup.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
- WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, $6,100
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,100
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
- Flex RB Austin Ekeler, WAS, $5,500
- TD Las Vegas, $3,000
Sunday Morning Update #1: 10:23 AM EST
This is an important week. I've spent a lot of time looking at alternative lineups, and keep landing back to the Primary Cash Lineup. Aaron Jones is a player that I really don't understand why he's as high as he is in a lot of models. He's a fine player, good, not great, and $7,500 seems a fair price for him. I'm ok to fade against him this week if he's going to be popular.
Kamara also worries me. The matchup is ideal, he gets Derek Carr back, but based on past history, just is a player who historically has not performed when I've had him in my lineup. Hopefully that changes today and not going to let history get in the way of the lineup this week.
Also, some of you have asked to return the high dollar head-to-head series to see how opponents are building their lineups. I will be screenshotting a $1,000 head to head that I'll be posting the matchup here once it goes live this afternoon, so check back later today for that screenshot.
Good Luck everyone, we need a winner this week.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, $6,500
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,100
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
- Flex RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $7,200
- TD Las Vegas, $3,000
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Buffalo (vs MIA) – 28.0 points
- Baltimore (vs Den) – 27.25 points
- Atlanta (vs DAL) – 27.25 points
- Cincinnati (vs LV) – 27 points
- Philadelphia (vs JAC) – 26.5 points
- Detroit (vs GB) – 26.0 points
- Minnesota (vs IND) – 25.75 points
- New Orleans (vs CAR) – 25.25 points
- LA Rams (vs SEA) – 25.25 points
Week 8 Recap
Writing this article this week is not fun. The Primary Cash Lineup is now 5-3 on the season after two losing weeks. While it’s easy to panic after a couple of difficult weeks, we’ve had a four-week losing streak in prior years and still ended up being profitable for the season. However, it’s important to breakdown what happened and if there are changes to be made going forward. The two losses are very different. The Sunday Morning update two weeks ago in hindsight was just a terrible and unnecessary overreaction to Cooper Kupp being out. It never should have changed the Primary Cash Lineup and it would have ended up a winning week.
This past week however, even with hindsight, I’m not sure I would change anything.
- If you told me Philadelphia was going to win 37-17, I’m definitely going to want A.J. Brown over Ja’Marr Chase especially with Brown being 10% rostered and Chase being 55%. Brown outgained Chase, but Chase found the end-zone. Those things happen.
- If you told me that Derrick Henry was going to average 6.6 yards per carry in a game that the Ravens scored 24 points, I sign up for that all day long at 7% rostered. However, he only had 11 carries for some inexplicable reason that ended up costing Baltimore who was a 9 point favorite the game.
- The only thing that I likely should have considered was going down to Bo Nix as the Footballguys Optimizer suggests. Our projections team does a great job, however as most of you know, I build the Primary Cash Lineup with my own projections, and then look to both Footballguys projections and consensus projections across the industry to see where I might be off on certain players and whether I’m ok with taking on that level of risk. This leads to sometimes having different lineups than just a chalk optimal lineup with every player being 40-50% rostered. I don’t view running an optimal lineup as a long-term winning strategy based on the 14 years I’ve been playing DFS.
- Trey Palmer saw two early targets, and then the team went heavily towards their tight ends and running backs. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out and Baker Mayfield throws for 330 yards, taking one of these receivers seemed like a good opportunity. None of the receivers worked out, and Cade Otton could become a top tight end going forward until those players get back.
Total points scored- 91.06
- Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800- 24.16
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $7,900- 9.2
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200- 14.2
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000- 10.9
- WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600- 10.2
- WR Trey Palmer, TB, $4,000- 3.7
- TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000- 11.1
- Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000- 7.2
- TD Miami $3,400- 0.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Tee Higgins is doubtful this week for Cincinnati. This is a tough call, as Ja’Marr Chase is likely going to garner interest once again, and the same stat that applied this week applies once again here. Ja’Marr Chase has not topped 100 yards in his last six games with Tee Higgins out of the lineup and is averaging just 43.8 yards per game after his 54 yard performance last week. At $9,500, he’s a complete fade this week even if the upside is going to be there going up against Las Vegas.
- Zack Moss is doubtful this week. Chase Brown is one of the top running back options this week at $6,300.
- DK Metcalf will miss this week with a knee injury as will Noah Fant leaving the Seahawks thin this week against Atlanta. All of the Seahawks are underpriced this week and could be interesting as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is just $6,500, while Tyler Lockett is priced down at $6,200. Jake Bobo is getting some interest as he’s $4,300, but even with Metcalf out last week had just one target. Smith-Njigba seems to be the top option this week if you wanted to play a Seahawk.
- The Panthers are a mess. They are starting Bryce Young even though Andy Dalton will be back this week. They’ve traded Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen remains out. None of the options are cheap enough in Carolina, as we would need a minimum-priced player to even consider someone from that offense.
- A big injury situation is Tony Pollard this week. He did not practice this week with a foot injury. With Tyjae Spears already ruled out, the Titans would be looking at Julius Chestnut as their only running back option this week. At $4,500 in a favorable matchup against New England would be a strong play. Calvin Ridley would also get a massive upgrade with no Pollard.
Week 9 Thoughts- High Scoring Week
This is as good of a week as we’ve had all season. There are nine teams that have a team total projection of 25 points or higher which on a 13-game slate is going to create numerous options and lineup differentiations that we haven’t had for most of the season. At the wide receiver position in particular, there are as many as 15 different players who realistically could be in lineups this week.
The key to this week however is going to be the tight end position. This is a week where you’re likely going to want to go with a balanced lineup in order to fit one of the better tight ends in this week. There is a massive fall off once you get under the $6k mark at the tight end position. Once you get below Kyle Pitts at $6k, you’re looking at players who lack the ceiling game that we saw from so many tight ends last week.
At the quarterback position, the big question is where you spend your money this week. The trend for most of the season has been to pay up at the position given the upside of players like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels especially with the lack of high-end consistent receivers compared to the last couple of seasons. Jackson is averaging 26.3 FanDuel points per game which would be the highest single season since Lamar Jackson in 2019 when he had 28.2 FanDuel points per game. Jackson is averaging 4.3 points more than Jalen Hurts who is going to be more volatile given the rushing touchdown dependency, and 2.5 points more than Jayden Daniels per game when adjusting out for the game that he was injured very early on. There are options on the low-end that you could certainly look at, but for that to work, you’re going to need ceiling games as well as Jackson not hitting his which is a risk. Going back to Bo Nix is certainly an option against the worst secondary in the NFL in Baltimore, while Derek Carr in his first game back could be intriguing, but likely more of a GPP play as you would need Carolina to have a strong performance otherwise this could just be a low-scoring 24-10 type game.
Player Pool
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 24.5 | $8,900 | Lamar Jackson this season has scored 27 FanDuel points or more in six of his eight games this season. The fact that he is not $500 higher than the next closest quarterback would indicate that even at $8,900 he's under-priced. The only concern this week is that he has been much better on the road than at home this season. At home, he's averaging just 22.3 FanDuel points per game. However, this should normalize, especially in a must-win game after the Ravens have lost two games that they shouldn't have this season to Cleveland and Las Vegas earlier this season. |
| 2 | Sam Darnold | 19.9 | $7,500 | Darnold has been extremely consistent all season. While he has yet to have the massive upside game, he has between 17-23 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. With a favorable matchup against the Colts who against competent NFL quarterbacks have allowed 280 passing yards or more in four straight games with three of those quarterbacks topping 310 quarterbacks. Their overall stats for the season have been skewed by facing Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley and Will Levis so far this season. |
| 3 | Bo Nix | 18.3 | $7,200 | Bo Nix was incredibly popular last week, yet he may have a better matchup this week against Baltimore. On the season, Baltimore has allowed 312 passing yards per game. For Nix, at $7,200, he realistically needs 18 points to exceed expectations as we look for 2.5x for the quarterback position. Nix has 24 FanDuel points or more in three of their last four games. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | D'Andre Swift | 16.7 | 7200 | Swift's price continues to just be too low as it continues to factor in the role that he had early on in the season. Since Week 4, Swift has at least 100 total yards in every game, as he is averaging 133.25 rushing+receiving yards per game in those four games. Swift has also scored a touchdown in each of those four games and is third in FanDuel points per game. Last week, Arizona allowed 147 yards and a touchdown to De'Von Achane and have also allowed 100 total yards to James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Brian Robinson Jr as they're allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Swift was a top play last week that wasn't in the Primary Cash Lineup, but will be a core play this week. |
| 2 | Chase Brown | 16.5 | 6300 | With no Zack Moss this week, Chase Brown should have a path to 17-20 carries in a home game against a bad Raiders defense. At $6,300 we don't need a lot here, as a 10-12 point floor will be more than enough to justify Brown with the top spot. On the year, Las Vegas has allowed ten running backs in eight games to top the ten-point mark. This is a defense that has allowed 100 rushing yards or more to J.K. Dobbins, Najee Harris, and Chuba Hubbard. Brown at the very least has the opportunity to top 100-yards this week which not many running backs in the low $6k price range do. |
| 3 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 13.0 | 6200 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. surprisingly cleared the concussion protocol after suffering a concussion on Monday. Tracy has become the clear workhorse in New York as he had 20 carries to Devin Singletary's 2 last week. While it might be a little more balanced this week as the team is cautious with the rookie, but Tracy was dominant against Pittsburgh rushing for 145 yards and a touchdown. Tracy now had 17 or more carries in three of his last four games while topping 100 total yards in each of those three games. We've been targeting Washington's run defense all season. This is a defense that allowed 95 yards and a touchdown to Devin Singletary back in Week 2, and with Tracy looking like a significantly better running back, he should have an opportunity to top 100 this week. |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | 18.3 | 8800 | This is the perfect get right spot for the 2-6 Saints. The Saints get Derek Carr back this week, while facing the worst defense in the NFL. Carolina on the year is allowing 29.1 FanDuel points per game which is 3.8 points more than then next closest defense. The only concern here is that because Carolina's defense has been as bad as it has been, combined with their offense being unable to move the ball with Bryce Young at quarterback, teams are pulling the starter or going with more of a committee approach. No running back has topped 25 FanDuel points against this Panthers defense this season. So Kamara should be realistically expected to go for 15-20 this week, but having the massive upside game may be less likely than we would want at $8,800 as we will likely see a game similar to Week 1 when Kamara had 15 carries, but Jamaal Williams also saw 11 carries in a 47-10 blowout win against the Panthers. Even in that game, neither running back topped 20 FanDuel points despite the team scoring 47 points. |
| 5 | Aaron Jones | 19.7 | 7500 | Aaron Jones is going to be popular this week, however there is some concern this week. The first is red zone opportunities. On the season, Aaron Jones has 24 red zone opportunities which are a combination of targets and carries. While 24 is above average, the big concern is that since Week 5, he has just four total red zone opportunities over the last three games. This is a big reason that he only has three touchdowns on the season. The second issue is that his involvement in the passing game has completely fallen off. In games without Jordan Addison, Jones averaged five receptions per game, however in games that Addison returned to the lineup, Jones is averaging just 2.4 receptions per game. Now add to the mix that T.J. Hockenson is making his season debut. If Jones is not catching 3-4 passes and not getting many red zone opportunities, he is not a bad play as the matchup is above average, but he should not be nearly as popular as he will be this week at $7,500 on a week where pricing is difficult. |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | 15.5 | 7300 | Pollard continues to be the epitome of the low ceiling, high-floor type player that makes for a solid cash game play each week. Pollard has at least 18 touches in six of his seven games this season with the only game he failed to do so being a game against Green Bay in which he got game scripted out of. The thing that is boosting Pollard into the top six on a week where there are so many great cheap options at running back is the matchup. New England's run defense since Week 4 is allowing 153 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and allowing 28.9 FanDuel points to the position. If Pollard was 100% healthy, he would likely be above Aaron Jones at the top mid-7k play, but he did not practice all week and is questionable heading into this game. With Tyjae Spears already ruled out, it would seem as if the Titans are going to do everything they can to start Pollard, but if he doesn't start, we could be looking at Julius Chestnut at $4,500 as a top play this week. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Chris Olave | 14.7 | 7100 | With Rashid Shaheed placed on IR, the options for the Saints are extremely limited as we saw last week. Last week, Chris Olave had 8 receptions for 107 yards on 14 targets with Spencer Rattler throwing him the ball in a difficult matchup against the Chargers. This week, the Saints get a favorable matchup against the Panthers, they get Derek Carr back from injury, and should be able to move the ball however they want in a game they're projected to score 25 points. Olave has 80 yards or more in three of his four games with Derek Carr this season and with no Shaheed should see a significant amount of touches this week. |
| 2 | Calvin Ridley | 12.2 | 6,200 | Even before the DeAndre Hopkins trade, the Titans have been trying to involve Calvin Ridley. Ridley had averaged 8.5 targets per game in the two games prior to the trade, and last week we saw a breakout performance that the team had been hoping for when they signed him this offseason. Ridley had 15 targets, catching 10 passes for 143 yards against Detroit as he was the only receiver outside of Tyler Boyd to have more than 2 catches last week. This week, it seems unlikely that Tyler Boyd will play as he has not practiced all week with a shoulder injury. Regardless of whether Boyd plays or not, Ridley is a guy that they need to figure out to involve given the $50M guaranteed that they gave him in the offseason. At $6,200, to get a player facing New England who have allowed at least 75 yards to number one receivers in each of their last three games is just too good of a price for the amount of targets that Ridley will get. |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | 18.3 | 9,100 | Remember the last few weeks where we were talking about guys like Jerry Jeudy and Jakobi Meyers as the only capable players sub 6k? Not this week. Another mis-priced player from FanDuel with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, as to get a player who has three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with Tua at quarterback. The only concern here is that even with Tua in the lineup, Waddle only had 5 targets and 4 targets in those two games prior to the injury. However, at $5,900, and with limited receiving options besides Tyreek Hill, this is a spot that you should feel comfortable with playing Waddle at a price that is $1,000 too cheap. |
| 4 | Josh Downs | 13.2 | 6,900 | Josh Downs' production with Joe Flacco is a completely different wide receiver. In his three games with Flacco as the starter, Downs has at least 65 yards in all three games with two touchdowns in those contests. What's most encouraging is that Downs has at least 9 targets in all three of those games. Minnesota is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the season which should open up opportunities for Downs this week. |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11.8 | 6,500 | With no DK Metcalf once again this week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be in line for a big workload in Week 9. Smith-Njigba has been extremely disappointing in his second season as the former first-round pick has not been able to take the leap into the primary receiver role. However, Smith-Njigba has some signs that he could be turning the corner. He has at least 50 yards in two of his last three games, has six red zone targets over the last four games, and is facing one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Out of the slot, Smith-Njigba will get to face off against undrafted rookie Josh Wallace. Wallace is out of Michigan, which for how many people they had drafted last season indicates that this is not a sleeper from a small school that simply went overlooked. If a big program player goes undrafted, it often means the guy is not ready to play which so far he hasn't been able to. |
| 6 | Cedric Tillman | 12 | 6,100 | This is the same story as last season. Last season, once the Browns benched Deshaun Watson, their passing offense immediately improved. Last week, against Baltimore, Cleveland threw the ball for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns. The player that the Browns need to figure out what to do with is Cedric Tillman. Last week, we saw Tillman be the leading receiver for the Browns with 99 yards and 2 touchdowns. At $6,100 the price is still very fair, with the only issue being the floor. With Tillman, he has 12 and 9 targets over the last two games, but this is a player prior to this who had just 5 total targets all season. While the floor maybe, low, the upside is certainly there for a big game this week. |
| 7 | Ja'Marr Chase | 19.8 | 9,500 | Ja'Marr Chase will be somewhat popular this week due to the injury to Tee Higgins. As we mentioned in the injury report, it doesn't necessarily help Ja'Marr Chase as he has struggled at times without Higgins. Last week, we saw Chase catch 9 passes for just 54 yards, but he did score a touchdown last week which ultimately salvaged his day. Chase has as much upside as any player on this slate and in theory should see additional targets with no Higgins in the lineup, but the floor is lower than Lamb if you're paying up for receiver this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Kyle Pitts | 10.6 | 6,000 | Kyle Pitts has 65 yards or more in each of the last four games. This is a player who at $6,000 is fourth in the NFL in receiving yards over the last three weeks and starting to build the chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Pitts has five fewer yards than Brock Bowers who is $1,700 more than PItts this week. Last week, Dallas' defense was shredded by George Kittle who had 128 yards and a touchdown. |
| 2 | Trey McBride | 11.4 | 6,800 | Very few tight ends have the upside that McBride has on this slate. With Marvin Harrison Jr. struggling and facing one of the league's best cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson, the Cardinals are likely going to turn to McBride to move the ball through the air. McBride has at least 50 yards in each of his last four games while topping 95 yards in two of those four games. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Las Vegas | 6.87 | 3,000 | Joe Burrow has been sacked three or more times in three of his last four games. With very little value this week, looking at the Raiders who have held opposing quarterbacks to under 250 passing yards in six of their eight games this season. |
| 2 | Washington | 10.3 | 3,900 | Daniel Jones and the New York Giants have been sacked 27 times on the season which is the fifth-most in the NFL on the year. We've historically seen turnover issues for the Giants who have thrown five interceptions on the season. Recently, with no Andrew Thomas, the Giants have allowed 11 sacks in the last two games. If you can afford the Giants, they're a significant upgrade compared to Las Vegas this week. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based off of the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them as the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he is breaking down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s on a weekly basis.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.4)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, $6,500
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,100
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
- Flex RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $7,200
- TD Las Vegas, $3,000
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.5)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,900
- RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, $6,200
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,100
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
- Flex RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $7,200
- TD Las Vegas, $3,000
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Bo Nix, DEN, $7,200
- RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, $6,200
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,300
- WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, $6,100
- WR Calvin Ridley, TEN, $6,200
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,100
- TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
- TD Las Vegas, $3,000
