Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update 10:30 AM EST
It does look like Tee Higgins is more on the doubtful side of playing than questionable. We should kn
No changes this week. I haven't been able to find a lineup that I prefer over the one currently in the lineup. I've run a number of situations looking at upgrading Javonte Williams to Joe Mixon and downgrading A.J. Brown to Jaylen Waddle which would work, but Williams should be a nice hedge against the Bo Nix plays who will be one of the most popular players at quarterback this week.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $7,900
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600
- WR Trey Palmer, TB, $4,000
- TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000
- Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000
- TD Miami $3,400
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs TEN) – 28.0 points
- Green Bay (at JAC) – 26.5 points
- Baltimore (at CLE) – 26.5 points
- Kansas City (at LV) – 25.75 points
- Houston (vs IND) – 25.5 points
- Denver (vs CAR) – 25.5 points
Week 7 Recap
Week 7 was a frustrating one and takes the Primary Cash Lineup to 5-2 on the season. Most weeks the Sunday Morning Update improves the lineup based on injuries or news that pops up overnight. However, last week, moves away from George Pickens, Sam Darnold, and Davante Adams to Jordan Whittington, Malik Nabers, and Kirk Cousins was just a bad move that ended up taking the lineup from cashing to failing to cash. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking back at this one it was a complete overreaction to Cooper Kupp being ruled out for the week, as Whittington ended the game with 0.0 points. In a vacuum, Darnold was the number one quarterback on the rankings last week and moving down to Cousins was an unnecessary move. Overall just a bad week in what should have been an easy cash due to Jayden Daniels getting injured early in the Carolina game last week.
Also, Ken Walker III didn’t help matters. This was a player who was a late addition to the injury report because of an illness on Saturday. I have a general rule of not taking players who are late adds to the injury report as it is incredibly unpredictable just how they will perform as we saw with Deebo Samuel Sr. who barely played due to an illness. Walker was one of the most popular plays of the week which severely hurt the chances of cashing this past week.
Total points scored- 87.48
- Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Kirk Cousins, ATL, $7,200-9.18
- RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,600-19.6
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $7,100-7.5
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,500-15.3
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $5,300-0.0
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $8,300-6.1
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,300-18.6
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400-19.6
- TD Tennessee, $3,100- 0.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle at the end of last week’s Monday Night Football game. Because this was a primetime game, Trey Palmer, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard are all underpriced this week.
- Tua Tagovailoa will return this week from his concussion. FanDuel has priced as if he was going to be out, so all of the Dolphins are underpriced. We’ll cover more on the Miami situation the rest of the article
- Tee Higgins was a late addition to the injury report with a quad injury. Being added to the injury report on Friday is always concerning. If Higgins is out, Andre Iosivas would see a slight upgrade, but would be a downgrade to Ja’Marr Chase who has failed to top 100 yards in each of his last five games without Higgins averaging just 41.8 yards per game.
- Travis Etienne Jr. is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. At $7,100, Tank Bigsby is a little bit too expensive considering all the value on this slate, but would be a solid GPP play if Etienne were to miss.
- The Panthers are a mess. Andy Dalton is out with a thumb injury which means Bryce Young will start this week. Diontae Johnson is also out this week with a rib injury and Adam Thielen will need one more week to return from a hamstring injury. Denver’s defense should be a top play this week, but are expensive at $5,000.
- San Francisco’s offense is extremely banged up. Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year with an ACL injury, Jauan Jennings has been ruled out with a hip injury, George Kittle is a game-time decision, and Deebo Samuel Sr. is questionable with a wrist and an illness.
Week 8 FanDuel Has Failed Us- Bad Pricing
FanDuel’s pricing up to this point in the season has been amongst the best it has ever been. However, this week, they’ve completely failed at producing competitive pricing for lineups. There are many significant mistakes, some of which are their fault, and some are not.
- The Tampa Bay situation is something that is somewhat unavoidable as it was a primetime game when Chris Godwin was injured, which we know is not considered when it comes to next week’s pricing. However, they’ve known about Mike Evans’ injury and that he would not be available for this game. Yet they still priced Trey Palmer who was on the field for 72% of plays last week at minimum price.
- Miami’s pricing is inexcusable for both FanDuel and DraftKings, both who missed the mark here this week. All of the Dolphins are under-priced this week by about $500-$1,000+ as Tyreek Hill at $7,600, and Jaylen Waddle at $5,900 is ridiculous pricing that is going to make them extremely highly rostered.
- Dalton Kincaid is just a pricing miss on the FanDuel algorithm that they need to take a hard look at. Kincaid was $6,300 last week and Kincaid had 52 yards last week. Somehow he’s now priced at a minimum price of $4,000.
- Not really FanDuel’s fault here, but Breece Hall at $7,900 is also a bad price. It’s hard to fault FanDuel for adjusting their algorithm to a change in offensive coordinator, but with Todd Downing over the last two games, Hall has 141 and 169 yards in the last two games. This week, Hall gets a Patriots defense that is the worst run defense in the NFL over the last four weeks allowing 195 total yards to the position in their last four games.
So, what do we do about it? There are going to be people who simply miss players like Palmer or Kincaid especially the closer to lock time, so if you haven’t joined contests yet, it’s possible that those who fill in the last hour of the slate have a lower percent rostered for those types of players as the more casual player just quickly fills in a lineup without actually doing much research. You may also see people look to Jalen McMillan or Sterling Shepard in Tampa Bay, as both of those players are also undervalued, given the Godwin injury. However, based on what Palmer showed last season in limited playing time, he seems most likely to emerge as Baker Mayfield’s top target until they can get these players back.
With the Miami situation, it’s a tough one, as the question you need to ask yourself is whether to play both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle this week. For cash games, we don’t necessarily care about upside nearly as much as the floor of the players and getting to that 2.2x value as most weeks 130 points is a safe cash number. So, to pay $13,500 for Waddle and Hill means we need 29.7 FanDuel points between the two of them. The only risk that you run here is if Hill were to have a massive game while Waddle struggled as then you still might get to 2.2x but will be behind the opponents as Hill will likely be significantly higher rostered than Waddle this week.
Cash Game Rankings
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 24.6 | $8,800 | Lamar Jackson is having another MVP caliber season. The criticism of Jackson from a fantasy perspective has always been that he has a floor that is lower than other quarterbacks as if he does not have a big running game he will not hit value. However, this season, we've seen that largely go away as he's thrown for 280 yards or more in three consecutive games including topping 300 in two of those contests. Jackson has just one game under 20 FanDuel points which was the team's Week 2 loss to Las Vegas in which he had 18.38 points. While we're certainly hoping for that 25+ point upside which he has in four of his last five games including two 40+ performances, getting a player who has hit at least 2x every single week is going to top the list. The matchup is favorable as the Browns who are quickly seeing their season fall apart. |
| 2 | Jordan Love | 21.1 | $8,900 | The price is the problem for Jordan Love this week, as everything else projects to be perfect for the quarterback. With the Packers receivers starting to get healthy and facing one of the league's worst pass defenses, Love's floor is as high as any quarterback on this slate. Love has thrown for at least three touchdowns in three of his last four games, and while the lack of rushing limits his upside compared to a player like Lamar Jackson, getting a player who you can essentially lock in for 18 points minimum (250 yards/2 touchdowns), with 25-30 point upside is something that needs to be looked at this week. |
| 3 | Bo Nix | 20.3 | $6,900 | At $6,900 Bo Nix is going to be one of the most popular quarterbacks on this slate. While his passing stats have not impressed, people are going to be excited about his rushing upside as he has ran for 60 yards or more in each of his last two games. The problem with Nix is that on a slate with significant value, going cheap at the quarterback position is a risk. HIs floor is as low as just about any quarterback on this slate as even in a 33-10 victory against New Orleans last week, he only had 14.06 points and that includes 75 yards of rushing. If this was a normal week where pricing was tough, then Nix would absolutely be higher, but with some clear pricing errors, taking a quarterback who has a higher floor and higher upside is the way to go. Think about it this way, Dalton Kincaid+ Lamar Jackson is $12,800 while David Njoku + Bo Nix is $12,400. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Breece Hall | 18.2 | 7900 | With offensive coordinator Todd Downing, Breece Hall has looked close to the player that had everyone excited about heading into this season. Over the last two games, Hall has 130 total yards or more in both contests. This week, the Jets are a desperate team taking on a team that looks like it is on the verge of quitting as the Patriots have allowed 163 rushing yards per game over their last four games while allowing 1.5 rushing touchdowns to the position per game. At $7,900 Hall's floor is raised because of his involvement in both the passing and rushing game this week. |
| 2 | D'Andre Swift | 15.3 | 6500 | DFS players memories are like goldfish. If a player has a bye they immediately have a lower roster percentage the following week. In this case, we haven't seen D'Andre Swift on a main slate in a few weeks as the Bears had a bye and played in London. Swift struggled the first three weeks of the season, but since then the entire offense has drastically improved. Swift has over 100 total years in each of his last three games averaging 135 yards per game. He's scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and is taking on a Washington Commanders football team that has struggled against the run this season. |
| 3 | Javonte Williams | 13.7 | 6000 | Taking a running back against Carolina seems to be a smart play every single week. Carolina has allowed 133 rushing yards per game and a staggering 2.0 touchdowns per game to the running back position. Javonte Williams has largely consolidated the backfield in Denver as he has at least 13 carries in three of his last four games with the lone game that he failed to do so being one in which the Broncos fell behind 20-0 in the first half. They shouldn't have that issue with Bryce Young starting and Carolina being without Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen this week. |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | 18.6 | 9200 | Derrick Henry is about as safe as it gets when it comes to the running back position this season, yet people continue to not want to play him. Henry has scored a touchdown in every game this season, has topped 100 yards in four of his last five games with the game he failed to do so being Week 5 where he had just 92 yards against Cincinnati. The lack of receiving volume does hurt him as he only has seven receptions on the season, but he's taking on a Cleveland team that is in complete disarray. The only concern here is that the Browns did shut down Saquon Barkley back in Week 6, and their run defense has been one of the areas that has not completely collapsed this season. |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | 15.2 | 6800 | The entire Dolphins team is mispriced this week with Tua Tagovailoa's return. For Achane, he has not been nearly as explosive as he was in his rookie season averaging just 3.7 yards per carry compared to 7.8 last season and surprisingly does not have a run longer than 17 yards this season. With Raheem Mostert back in the mix, Achane is likely to need that big run to have that breakout performance this week, which is always difficult to project. This is a key decision point, as Achane will be popular this week, but the biggest reason I have him as low as I do is that in the two games that Raheem Mostert has come back from injury, Mostert has four red zone opportunities (touches+targets), while Achane does not have any. We need to remember that Achane is one of the smallest running backs in the NFL at 5'9'' 180 pounds, so unless he breaks a big play here which he certainly is capable of doing, it's going to be difficult for him to hit value. |
| 6 | J.K. Dobbins | 17.4 | 7400 | The Saints are likely past quit watch and we can now just say that they've largely quit on the season. Since Week 4, New Orleans has allowed 195 total yards per game and 1.9 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. While we haven't seen J.K. Dobbins repeat those first two week performances where he topped 130 yards, he has at least 17 touches over his last four games and has a clear hold on this running back room as Gus Edwards has been unable to do anything this season. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | 12.7 | 7600 | At $7,600, Tyreek Hill's is the 13th most expensive wide receiver this week. His price has not adjusted to Tua Tagovailoa being back at quarterback this week. Arizona is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. There's really not much to overthink here as Hill was the number two overall wide receiver in 2023 with Tua at quarterback and in his one full game with Tagovailoa he had 7 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | 17.6 | 9,000 | A.J. Brown this season has been amongst the most consistent receivers when healthy. In his three games this season, Brown has scored a touchdown in each of those three games, has topped 110 yards twice, and the lone game he failed to top 100 yards he had 89 in a 28-3 blowout in which Philadelphia only threw the ball 14 times. This week, he gets a potential shootout game with the Bengals starting Geno Stone just a week after being carted off. Cincinnati has not faced a true number one receiver with the only receivers that were close are Terry McLaurin and Zay Flowers both who topped 100 yards against this Bengals defense. |
| 3 | Jaylen Waddle | 11.3 | 5,900 | Remember the last few weeks where we were talking about guys like Jerry Jeudy and Jakobi Meyers as the only capable players sub 6k? Not this week. Another mis-priced player from FanDuel with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, as to get a player who has three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with Tua at quarterback. The only concern here is that even with Tua in the lineup, Waddle only had 5 targets and 4 targets in those two games prior to the injury. However, at $5,900, and with limited receiving options besides Tyreek Hill, this is a spot that you should feel comfortable with playing Waddle at a price that is $1,000 too cheap. |
| 4 | Trey Palmer | 7.4 | 4,000 | This is another pricing error by FanDuel to have Trey Plamer at minimum price. While it's easy to point and say that the Buccaneers previous game was a Primetime game and the pricing did not reflect the Chris Godwin ankle injury, we knew that Mike Evans was out for multiple weeks. Palmer is not a must start compared to Dalton Kincaid who is also minimum-priced, but going with both Palmer and Kincaid allows you to do some unique things with the rest of your roster. Palmer has yet to emerge in 2024, but did have multiple 50+ yard games in 2023. |
| 5 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 13 | 6,500 | $6,500 for Thomas is just too low. Brian Thomas Jr. leads the Jaguars in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns this season and has caught at least 80 yards or more in three of his last four games. This week he gets to face a defense that has struggled with the big play as Jordan Addison had multiple deep passes earlier this season, while A.J. Brown also had 119 yards and a touchdown on just 5 receptions. At $6,500 all Thomas needs is one long play to payoff his price, and as one of the fastest receivers in the NFL certainly has the ability to have multiple big plays this week. |
| 6 | Ja'Marr Chase | 17.4 | 9,200 | With Tee Higgins being a late add to the injury report with a quad injury, that's often not a great sign for the receiver who had not been on the injury report Wednesday or Thursday. This vaults Ja'Marr Chase up the board, and it's likely that it would be better if Higgins is active here to draw some coverage away from Chase as we saw Chase struggle in the first two games of the season without Higgins. Chase has as much upside as anyone on this slate and you can easily fit him into your lineup this week if you play Palmer and Kincaid. The only question is whether to spend up elsewhere which does feel a bit safer compared to the wide receiver who has just 6 targets in each of his last two games. |
| 7 | Tyler Lockett | 12 | 6,100 | DK Metcalf is very likely to miss this week, which should put both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett as top cash game plays this week. While both players are in a great spot this week, the difference here for Lockett is the most recent red zone production. Over the last four games, Lockett has 7 red zone targets which leads the team. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Dalton Kincaid | 8.6 | 4,000 | This is a clear pricing error by FanDuel. While Dalton Kincaid has not had the type of season that most have expected, to get him at $4k this week is simply too cheap. Over the last two games, Kincaid has topped 50 yards in each of those games and with Dawson Knox questionable this week he is a tremendous salary punt this week. |
| 2 | David Njoku | 10.7 | 5,500 | With Amari Cooper traded, David Njoku saw a significant workload last week as he had 10 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown. While the 14 targets that he saw last week are likely not sustainable with the change in quarterback as Jameis Winston will spread the ball around compared to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson, Njoku still is likely the number one target in Cleveland this week. Baltimore is a team that has struggled against the tight end this season as Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, Zach Ertz, and last week Cade Otton all put up impressive performances as the Ravens secondary continues to be one of the worst units in the NFL. If you don't want to go with such a stars and scrubs lineup, going with Njoku could be a solid pivot off of Kincaid. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Detroit | 12.3 | 4,000 | Even with no Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit was able to sack Sam Darnold four times last week, which addressed the question of whether they would be able to rush the passer without their top defensive end. With Mason Rudolph likely starting for Tennessee, he will be relied upon to throw the ball heavily as Detroit boasts one of the league's best-run defenses. If it is Will Levis this week, that would only help Detroit's defense, as Levis has shown he is turnover-prone with 7 interceptions on 125 attempts. |
| 2 | Miami | 8.8 | 3,400 | Miami has arguably the league's best pass defense this season. At $3,400, the Dolphins get Kyler Murray this week at home in a game that they should be able to force the Cardinals to throw the ball. The Dolphins pass rush has been lacking this season which is the reason their price is just $3,400, but teams have largely had game plans not to take chances against the Dolphins given the lack of offensive production this season with Tagovailoa out. With Tua back this week, the Cardinals are going to need to take some chances and throw the ball downfield which should create turnover opportunities for Miami. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based off of the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them as the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he is breaking down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s on a weekly basis.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.2)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $7,900
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,200
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600
- WR Trey Palmer, TB, $4,000
- TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000
- Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000
- TD Miami $3,400
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.5)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $7,900
- RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $6,500
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600
- WR Brian Thomas Jr.., JAX, $6,500
- TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000
- Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000
- TD Miami $3,400
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 131.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Bo Nix, BAL, $8,800
- RB D’Andre Swift, CHI, $6,500
- RB J.K Dobbins, LAC, $7,400
- WR A.J. Brown, PHI, $9,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, MIA, $7,600
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $9,200
- TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, $4,000
- Flex RB Javonte Williams, DEN, $6,000
- TD Miami $3,400
