Sunday Morning Update
The big news of the day is that Cooper Kupp is likely to miss this week. This opens up some value with Jordan Whittington who will become a solid value play this week. Whittington has 60 yards or more in each of his last two games with 7 receptions for 89 yards last week. The problem is that there's not an easy upgrade this week.
The other news is that Ken Walker III was added to the injury report with an illness. He seems as if he is going to play this week, but that could limit him a little bit.
I don't love the move away from Darnold to Kirk Cousins, and thought about going up to Jayden Daniels by downgrading Nabers to George Pickens. However, the worry with the Washington offense is they may just take a run-heavy approach that Atlanta did last week where they are able to control the game with a positive game script. However, the move from Darnold down to Cousins does allow the upgrade to both Drake London and Malik Nabers which did not look possible earlier this week. Regarding Davante Adams, he's still a solid play, but there is just a little more risk this week given the new environment.
- QB Kirk Cousins, ATL, $7,200
- RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,600
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $7,100
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,500
- WR Jordan Whittington, LAR, $5,300
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $8,300
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,300
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- TD Tennessee, $3,100
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Washington (vs CAR) – 29.75 points
- Atlanta (vs SEA) – 26.75 points
- Minnesota (vs DET) – 26.0 points
- Buffalo (vs TEN) – 25.0 points
Week 6 Recap
Week 6 was the strongest week yet, taking the overall season record to 5-1 in the Primary Cash Lineup. It was a week where the collective crowd was on a completely different build than what the primary cash lineup was on, as CeeDee Lamb was nearly 50% rostered in most contests, while Derrick Henry was less than 10% rostered. By going with Henry, it allowed for an easy win this past week, finishing in the top 5% of cash game rosters in Week 6.
Total points scored- 154.86
Primary Cash lineup:
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $8,300- 21.86
- RB Derrick Henry, BAL, $9,100- 28.2
- RB Bucky Irving, TB, $5,700- 17.5
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,400- 16.4
- WR DeVonta Smith, PHI, $7,300-13.9
- WR Darius Slayton, NYG, $5,900- 8.7
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,700-11.6
- Flex RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, $5,800- 19.7
- TD Tampa Bay, $3,700- 17.0
What went right:
- This was one of those weeks where everything went right. However, the biggest differentiator was Derrick Henry. Henry dominated the Washington defense scoring twice while also toping 130 yards. At less than 10% rostered, having Henry meant an easy victory this week.
What went wrong:
- DeVonta Smith was the only one that was questionable. He put up 13.9 points, but wasn't as involved as I'd had thought he would be. It was a risk taking him at 4% rostered this past week, but he didn't kill the lineup.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Tyjae Spears will miss this week with a hamstring injury. In a positive matchup against the Bills, Tony Pollard should be a top play for Week 7 at just $7,100.
- Jerome Ford is out this week for Cleveland. With Nick Chubb returning, Cleveland’s backfield is interesting; if Nick Chubb were to get a normal workload, he would immediately be a top play this week at $6,800. However, it’s difficult to know, coming back from a knee injury, whether he will be ready to go this week.
- Aaron Jones is questionable this week with a hamstring. If he’s unable to go, Ty Chandler would likely see a bulk of the carries this week, but the team did sign Cam Akers. Chandler hasn’t been great for the Vikings in limited playing time, and he’s not overly cheap at $6,400 this week.
- Jonathan Taylor is out once again with an ankle sprain. This is likely a pass situation again as Trey Sermon has not been great for the Colts, and they’re involving Tyler Goodson more. Sermon is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and not catching the ball.
- Malik Nabers has cleared protocol and will start for the Giants. At $8,300, he’s expensive, but he is one of the top wide receivers this week in a positive matchup against Philadelphia.
- Dallas Goedert is out this week. This should elevate Grant Calcaterra to playable status at just $5,100.
- Jakobi Meyers is doubtful this week with an ankle injury. This should make Brock Bowers one of the top tight end plays, while Tre Tucker and DJ Tucker are intriguing value plays at the wide receiver position. Of the two, DJ Turner is the guy that you should focus on this week.
Week 7 Strategy Bankroll Management
Dating back to last season, the cash game run that we’ve been on here at Footballguys has been incredible. This season, we are off to a 5-1 start, which is one of the best starts that this article has ever had.
However, let me be very clear. Do not get overconfident, thinking that we are just going to double our money every single week. While it would be great if that were the case, we know that even if we win 70% of the weeks that would be a tremendous season, so do not overextend your bankroll simply because of recent success, as all it takes in a given week is one injury, one called back touchdown, or just a bad performance.
I’m confident when I say that I spend more time building my cash game lineup than anyone in the industry. FanDuel, for a lot of people, is a secondary site that creates an edge for those who spend as much time as we do in this article. Between Friday and Sunday to build a single lineup, I spend about 15-20 hours building the Primary Cash Lineup, writing this article, and then tweaking different scenarios in preparation for the Sunday Morning Update. Most of those are scenarios that never get published.
One thing to call out. This article is primarily about the Primary Cash Lineup. The GPP lineups and Cash Plus lineups are going to be lineups that are typically deviations of the cash game lineup with a stack involved here or there. These are less likely to be profitable each and every week, as there’s less time spent on them simply because they’re typically alternate lineups.
Player Pool
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Sam Darnold | 18.9 | $7,500 | At 5-0, this is a big test for the Vikings. So far, the Vikings have passed every test that they've faced so far this season. With Aaron Jones dealing with a hamstring injury, and with Detroit having one of the best run defenses in the NFL, this is a game that is going to need to be won on the arm of Sam Darnold. Detroit's secondary looked better last week against Dallas in a complete blowout game, but prior to that they have allowed 395 yards to Geno Smith, and 317 yards to Matthew Stafford. The corners for Detroit are inexperienced as Justin Jefferson should see a lot of rookie Terrion Arnold who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football, but Jefferson is simply too expensive as it stands on Saturday morning based on the lack of value at the other positions. For the Vikings to win this game, they'll need Darnold to throw for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns this week. |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | 25.3 | $9,100 | What Jayden Daniels is doing this season is simply incredible. Completing 75.3% of his passes, while being second in the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns amongst quarterbacks, this is a player who has completely revitalized a franchise overnight. This is a matchup where Daniels should be able to drive the ball up and down the field against one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Panthers struggled against the one mobile quarterback they faced this season in Caleb Williams who threw for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns while also rushing for 34 yards. The problem with Daniels is the price, as at $9,100 on a week with very little value makes it difficult to fit Daniels in, but he gives you a significant floor this week compared to some of the other quarterbacks at just $1,000-$1,500 cheaper. |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | 18.9 | $7,200 | Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense seems to be clicking after a slow start to the season. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have put up an average of 33.3 points per game. The issue is that the Falcons can create mismatches in so many different ways through their running backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. What this ultimately does is lower Cousins' floor as we saw last week the Falcons are more than happy to run the ball 38 times if they're having success. The good news for the Falcons this week is that Seattle's pass defense has struggled each of the last three weeks as they've allowed 250 passing yards or more and multiple touchdowns per game as Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy all topped 22 FanDuel points. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Chuba Hubbard | 15.9 | 7400 | Chuba Hubbard's price is still too low as the algorithm can't seem to remove the Bryce Young games from it which severely impacted Hubbard's upside. Since the move to Andy Dalton, Hubbard has 90 rushing yards or more and has caught at least four passes in every game. The only downside for Hubbard is that he only has two touchdowns in those four games. At $7,400, he's currently the 14th most expensive running back despite being a top three fantasy producer since Dalton came in as the starter. The matchup is an ideal one that we picked on last week with Derrick Henry. Washington's run defense has only gotten worse since last week as defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is out for the season. |
| 2 | Tony Pollard | 15.1 | 7100 | As long as the game script stays within reason, Tony Pollard is in an ideal matchup this week against Buffalo. With Tyjae Spears out, Pollard should see as much volume as he can handle facing a Buffalo defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Despite the lack of success in the passing game, Pollard has 60 rushing yards or more in four of his five games this season and has at least three receptions four of his five games this year. At $7,100, he's a back who should get 20 touches in this game and is likely underpriced by $600. |
| 3 | Ken Walker III | 17.0 | 7500 | Ken Walker III is turning into a complete back right before our eyes. The issue with Walker has always been his ability to catch the ball which had been holding him back from emerging as one of the league's top running backs. Walker has caught 15 passes over the last two weeks, which likely won't be repeatable this week as they were in extremely favorable game scripts, it shows that the team is willing to utilize him as a receiver which previously he averaged less than 2 receptions per game in 2022 and 2023. For Walker, we haven't seen him in a competitive game since Week 1 where he did have 20 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown, but his volume otherwise has been a bit sporadic as he only has 12, 5, and 14 carries over the next three games. While receptions are certainly a factor, they're more unpredictable than carries, which makes Walker a good play, but certainly not a must start play. On a full PPR site, he is a tremendous play as you're more willing to accept the volatility in receptions simply based on the upside that it provides. |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | 19.6 | 8600 | Kyren Williams is one of those key players that you'll need to determine what you do with this week. He'll likely be the most popular running back on the slate as he's scored a touchdown in every game this season, is coming off of a bye, has averaged 96 rushing yards per game, and the matchup is great going up against the Raiders who have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season. The reason he's not number one this week for me is that when Cooper Kupp was active he struggled earlier this season. In the first two weeks of the season, Williams averaged just 15 carries for 37.5 yards. At only 3.8 yards-per-carry, do we see rookie Blake Corum having some sort of role in this offense for the 1-4 Rams? Even if he has 4-5 carries, to take a running back at $8,600 that is averaging just 3.8 yards-per-carry, he's going to need a 25+ yard carry like he had in their last game with a 30 yard run. |
| 5 | Chase Brown | 11.7 | 6500 | There's no value at the running back position this week. However, we are starting to see a shift at the running back position in Cincinnati. Chase Brown is a player who is starting to take over the backfield as he outsnapped Zack Moss 62% to 45% last week which was the first time this season that Brown had over 40% of snaps and the first time that Moss had under 60%. Cincinnati is in a must-win game against the lowly Browns this week if they want any hope of fixing their 1-5 start to their season, and they simply need to make a move to the better running back which is Brown. Of the two, Brown is averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry compared to Moss' 3.6, has scored three touchdowns over the last three weeks, and has caught at least two passes in each of the last four games. Going up against Cleveland who still has a good run defense is the only thing holding Brown back here, but if you're looking for a sub-7k guy this week, he's likely the player to look at. |
| 6 | Nick Chubb | 10.2 | 6800 | Playing Nick Chubb is based entirely on a narrative that I've personally come up with as a Browns fan. The thinking is this. If you're the 1-5 Browns who are clearly heading towards a rebuild after trading Amari Cooper, why are you possibly playing Nick Chubb until he is fully healthy? Adding in the fact that Jerome Ford is out this week should mean that there is very few other options for the Browns to turn towards. What happens when Nick Chubb gets off to a strong start because he's the best offensive player the Browns have by far? Is Kevin Stefanski really going to sit him because of a snap count at home? If he does, and the team loses because of it, then he will have lost what little support he still has left. Cincinnati's a team that can be run on as they've allowed four running backs to rush for 90 yards or more this season. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Drake London | 15.8 | 7500 | Over the last three weeks, the switch has flipped for Drake London. London has at least 10 targets in each of his last three games as he has 12, 13, and 10 targets. At $7,500, this is a player in what could be the highest scoring game of the week and feels as safe as any wide receiver on this slate as he has at least 60 yards in each of his last four games. Seattle has allowed 100 yards or more in each of their last two games to number one receivers as Deebo Samuel Sr. and Darius Slayton both topped the 100-yard mark over the last two weeks. |
| 2 | Davante Adams | 12.3 | 6,900 | Receiver is bleak this week. At $6,900 Davante Adams is mispriced and could be this week's Derrick Henry where he goes completely under-the-radar. For Adams, most people aren't even thinking about this game as it's not on the DraftKings main slate. This is a receiver who is going into a building with immediate familiarity. He will know the terminology used in the offense based on Nathaniel Hackett's offense even if Hackett is no longer calling the plays. He will have an immediate connection with Aaron Rodgers who is desperately looking for a win this week and a receiver who he can rely on. The Jets are facing a Steelers' secondary that is not nearly as good as its run-stopping capabilities. Joey Porter Jr.. has struggled for most of the season, and could be a matchup that Rodgers takes advantage of with his new weapon. |
| 3 | George Pickens | 12.1 | 6,000 | George Pickens is like a kid at Christmas he's so excited. After Mike Tomlin would not name a starting quarterback, Pickens revealed that Russell Wilson will get the start this week and he's been putting in a lot of extra work after practice with the quarterback. Pickens' price has not moved over the last couple of weeks as he has struggled over the last two games catching just three passes in each of those two games. Pittsburgh's receiving options are limited as Pickens is the only receiver to have caught more than 10 passes this season, so getting Pickens on a week where there is little value will be amongst the most popular plays this week. |
| 4 | Malik Nabers | 16.9 | 8,600 | At $8,300, Malik Nabers seems underpriced this week. It's quickly how the news cycle can change for an individual player, but for Nabers he was quickly emerging in the top tier of receivers prior to the concussion. Nabers had 115 yards or more in two of his last three games, while scoring three touchdowns in those three games. Most impressive were the target volumes as he had 18, 12, and 15 targets as Daniel Jones seemingly looked for him on every play. Getting him back from a concussion this week is significant for the Giants. Philadelphia has allowed 80 yards or more to a receiver in each of their first four games, and while the streak was broken last week against the Browns, the Browns make a lot of defenses look better than they should this season. |
| 5 | Diontae Johnson | 14.3 | 7,100 | Johnson is going to be popular this week if he plays as Carolina takes on Washington which still has the narrative of a bad pass defense. With Johnson, you're getting a receiver who has 10 or more targets in three of his four games with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and at $7,100 is a rare price point for that volume. The problem with Johnson is that he suffered a non-contact injury on Friday with a rib injury as it "tightened up". This was after he missed Wednesday and Thursday's practice with an ankle injury. This is particularly concerning, as with the Panthers season going nowhere at 1-5, does he push through the injury if something gets injured mid-game? Does the team risk it considering the trade rumors surrounding Johnson? While the upside is there, this is a team and player that are likely going to take caution. |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson | 17.4 | 9,400 | Affording Jefferson is almost impossible this week without more value opening up over the weekend, but if it does, he is the top high-end play this week. Jefferson was somewhat shut-down by Sauce Gardner prior to the bye as he had just 6 catches for 92 yards, but did see 14 targets in that game. With the issues that the Vikings have running the ball this week with Aaron Jones' injury, they should take a pass-heavy approach against the Lions funnel defense. Expect 100+ yards and at least a touchdown from Jefferson, which is what you need to have to pay off his exhorbinant price tag. |
| 7 | Jerry Jeudy | 10.6 | 5,600 | With Amari Cooper being traded, there's value throughout the Cleveland Browns team as they're all priced as if Cooper is still with the team. At $5,600 Jeudy becomes the top option in Cleveland this week. However, there is risk here as while Jeudy had 9 targets three weeks ago, he has had just 3 targets in each of his last two games catching one of those passes in each of the last two weeks. For the Browns, they need to figure out what they have in Jerry Jeudy after giving him an extension for the next three seasons once they acquired him via trade. |
| 8 | Terry McLaurin | 13.3 | 7,200 | Terry McLaurin statistically has been great over the last four weeks, as he has scored a touchdown or topped 100-yards in each of his last four games. Last week, McLaurin scored twice against Baltimore despite having just 53 yards. So, for a guy who has averaged 17 FanDuel points per game over the last four weeks to be number seven on the rankings this week in a favorable matchup against Carolina there are some questions that need to be answered. First and foremost, the targets are a concern. McLaurin is only averaging 7.75 targets per game over that four week stretch. Now factor in that he only has four red zone targets all season, yet has four touchdowns on the year. Both are signs of regression that is coming, and while it may not come this week, there is certainly risk that Washington is just able to run the ball with ease against Carolina who are missing 7 defensive lineman and linebackers who have started this season. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 11.9 | 7,000 | With Davante Adams traded and Jakobi Meyers doubtfull, Bowers should see all the volume he can get this week. This is a Rams defense that was torched by Tucker Kraft prior to their bye as he had 4 receptions for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. The only question is the price, as at $7,000 he's a difficult player to fit in with some decent cheap options this week at the position. |
| 2 | David Njoku | 8.6 | 5,300 | Njoku is underpriced at $5,300 with the trade of Amari Cooper this week. Njoku saw 7 targets last week and while they were low upside targets as he averaged just 6.2 yards per catch, at $5,300 he's in the range of players who we're hoping for 6-8 points from. He seems the safest cheap tight end this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 8.4 | 3,500 | With the lack of value this week, you're likely going to need to pay down for a defense. The options are somewhat limited, as all of the defenses $3,500 or less are facing some of the league's best quarterbacks. However, Cleveland is going to be underlooked this week as the aura surrounding this 1-5 team is amongst the worst we've ever seen it. The Browns' defense was somewhat impressive last week against Philadelphia, and this week are going to be motivated to be at home for the first time in four games with getting the one leader they have in their clubhouse Nick Chubb back. This is a game that Cleveland can not only put up a good performance, but also win. |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | 7.3 | 3,100 | If you're looking for a complete punt play this week, just take Tennessee. They are allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL this season, fewest passing yards per game, and while they only have 9 sacks on the season, the floor of the Titans should be at least a couple of points without risking a negative performance. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.6)
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,500
- RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $8,600
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $7,100
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,500
- WR Davante Adams, LV, $6,900
- WR George Pickens, PIT, $6,000
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,300
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- TD Cleveland, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.6)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,500
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $7,100
- RB Ken Walker III, SEA, $7,500
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,500
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $8,300
- WR George Pickens, PIT, $6,000
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,300
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- TD Tennessee, $3,100
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 124.1)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN, $7,500
- RB Ken Walker III, SEA, $7,500
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $7,100
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,200
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $6,500
- WR George Pickens, PIT, $6,000
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $5,300
- Flex RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $7,400
- TD Tennessee, $3,100
Player Chart
Photos provided by Imagn Images