Sunday Morning Update
10:30AM EST:
As of now, there's nothing surprising that broke overnight. Where I've been spending most of my time going back and forth is whether going down from Amari Cooper to Jakobi Meyers allows an upgrade elsewhere.
Where I've landed is that the upside of Amari Cooper/Drake London/D.J. Moore/Terry McLaurin is higher than the gap between Hubbard and Aaron Jones. Hubbard does pose risk if the Panthers fall behind early, but even then should still get enough out of the passing game to pay off this week.
Regarding the $6,400-$6,600 range, Cooper remains the favorite, followed by McLaurin, London, and Moore. For Cooper, the Browns received some positive news that Nick Chubb's return could be soon, and if they could win this game their season is right back on track. As road favorites, the only consistent path to moving the ball is through Cooper as they have no running game to speak of, and the Browns had to see how the Panthers used Diontae Johnson to dominate this matchup last week.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,200
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,600
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,500
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,700
- WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,400
- WR Diontae Johnson, CAR, $6,200
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,500
- Flex RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Arizona (vs WAS) – 27.0 points
- Cincinnati (at CAR) – 26.0 points
- Houston (vs Jax) – 25.75 points
Week 3 Recap
Week 3 was a difficult week. While fading Jordan Mason worked, the lineup still finished about 8 points below the money line. This puts the season at 2-1 on the year, and kills the dream of an undefeated season. It ended up being a week where percent rostered aggregated much more than anticipated around players as basically the entire roster outside of Nico Collins was 30% or higher rostered this past week.
Total points scored- 99.28
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,300- 15.78
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700- 7.3
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $4,000- 9.4
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,600- 10.6
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500- 7.3
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $7,300- 26.1
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,300- 5.6
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,400- 14.2
- TD Tennessee, $3,700- 3.0
What went right:
- There’s nothing that went right here. While you can point to Rashee Rice, he was rostered in about 70% of rosters last week.
What went wrong:
- De’Von Achane just didn’t do enough at 30% rostered. To only catch the ball three times was surprising. Skylar Thompson got hurt which forced Tim Boyle to get into the game, but it wouldn’t have mattered.
- Nico Collins at 21% rostered was a disappointment. Houston just didn’t show up on the road as they lost 34-7. Collins did see several red zone targets right at the end of the game, but was unable to cash in on a touchdown.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
Week 4 has quite a few uncertain situations. Check back on Sunday Morning Lineup Update once we get clarity and how you should react to this news.
- Jordan Love seems to be 50/50 this week. It’s probably just a complete stayaway for fantasy as Malik Willis would be interesting if he was a little bit cheaper, but this is a defense in Minnesota that just completely neutralized the Texans passing attack. So taking a chance on Love likely seems like a bad 1980’s song.
- Davante Adams is out this week. This is a tricky one, as both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers both should get an upgrade against Cleveland. The path for the Raiders to be competitive this week is through the air as Zamir White and this rushing attack have done nothing this season. Expect Bowers to be one of the highest rostered players on this slate, while Meyers is a good play although not a must one as he comes with his own risks regarding a low floor, but did have 7 receptions last week.
- Justin Herbert is looking like he will be out this week. With no Herbert, the Chiefs offense gets a downgrade in what should be a less competitive game despite Taylor Heinicke looking like he will get the start.
- Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce look more doubtful than questionable this week, although Mixon did return to practice on Friday. Cam Akers is more expensive than we’d like him to be at $6,100 given his struggles last week, but if you need a cheap running back he could be someone to look at this week.
- Jaylen Warren is out this week. This should be a perfect matchup for Najee Harris going up against a bad run defense in Indianapolis.
- A.J. Brown might return this week. It seems unlikely, but he did practice on Friday. DeVonta Smith is also out for the Eagles. If Brown is unable to go, it could just be a must play for Saquon Barkley, as the Eagles do not have a great receiving option amongst Jahan Dotson, Johnnie Wilson, and Parris Campbell. If one of them was cheaper, it could be tempting, but as of now, it’s Barkley or Dallas Goedert this week.
- Chris Olave is questionable this week, but he did travel with the team on Saturday. With him traveling within 24 hours of the game, it would seem reasonable that he is going to play this week.
Week 4 Strategy- Difficult Week
This is a difficult week this week as there is seemingly very little value on the board despite a large number of injuries. What you’re going to need to do is decide where you want to spend down in order to build a competent lineup. There are a number of mid-priced guys, but they all bring certain level concerns. Whether it is volatility such as Terry McLaurin or Amari Cooper, players filling in for an injury like Jakobi Meyers, or players with big roles but not all that skilled such as Najee Harris or Chuba Hubbard. Ultimately those are the caliber of players that we’re looking at this week.
So how do we approach this? For running backs, the way that I approach value is simply based on opportunity. Taking the guy who is going to get 18-22 touches despite not being a great running back is at least going to be interesting every single week. For tight ends, it’s similar. If you go cheap, make sure the player is at least getting snaps and getting targeted.
For wide receivers and quarterbacks when looking at going spending down, it is more so about the upside. While having predictable targets is necessary to at least be on the consideration list, it is then decided by upside as wide receivers inevitably are more volatile than other positions. At the quarterback position, we’ve discussed before, but prioritization of rushing upside is always going to be a tiebreaking consideration as it is so incredibly valuable to have the upside of that rushing touchdown compared to a quarterback who doesn’t run.
What’s interesting is that this is almost entirely flipped when it comes to spending up. When spending up, I want a 100+ rushing bonus upside at the running back position, and 100+ yard or multiple touchdown upside to spend at tight end. Meanwhile, if I’m spending up at wide receiver, I will only do so if it is relatively predictable that the receiver will have a floor of at least 75+ yards.
Player Pool
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 22.56 | 8200 | Jayden Daniels has shown a rushing upside and electricity that he had back in LSU that allowed him to win the Heisman. Daniels is on pace to rush for 970 yards for the season, and has already ran for three rushing touchdowns this season. Daniels is turnover prone which as a fantasy quarterback is not always a bad thing as it forces the team to keep throwing the ball and often working in a positive game script for the quarterback. This week, Daniels' gets to face Arizona who struggled with Josh Allen's mobility allowing 33.18 points to the Bills quarterback. This should be a back and forth game and one of the highest scoring contests of the week. |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | 18.8 | 7100 | Caleb Williams has received a lot of undeserved criticism this year. The Bears have no offensive line, no running game, and their fans had unrealistic expectations heading into this season. Williams showed growth last week with 363 yards and 2 touchdowns despite throwing two interceptions in that game. With Keenan Allen back, expect the Bears to take a pass heavy approach against the Rams who have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL as they're allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud | 19.8 | 7800 | C.J. Stroud is a difficult one, as the Texans have struggled so far this season compared to expectations, but in terms of passing upside, Stroud is as high as just about any player on this slate. If FanDuel didn't have the 300-yard bonus, Stroud likely wouldn't be in play, but since they've added it he has the highest likelihood of hitting 300 yards in Week 4. Jacksonville is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks which has been a big reason they've started 0-3 this season. For Stroud, the risk is always that he offers almost no rushing upside as he has ran for just 24 yards through three games this season, so for him to be cash viable, he is going to need close to 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Breece Hall | 19.24 | 8000 | Breece Hall has yet to have the game that we all know he is capable of this season. While he hasn't been bad as he has scored a touchdown in each game, he hasn't had that monster performance that we have seen him capable of which is 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns. For the Jets, through three weeks they've faced three very good defenses in San Francisco, Tennessee and New England. This week, they face a Denver defense that is much better against the pass and has some real concerns at linebacker against the run. We saw last week Bucky Irving was able to gain 70 yards on 9 carries, while in Week 1 Ken Walker III had 103 yards and a touchdown. At just $8,000, the price is the 8th-highest running back which is far too cheap. |
| 2 | Najee Harris | 14.59 | 6600 | With no Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris should be in a premiere position this week. The real question with Harris is what do you think about the Colts defense, as this was a defense that allowed 150 yards or more to Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs before shutting down the Chicago Bears inept rushing attack. This seems to be more of a negative against Chicago rather than an endorsement of Indianapolis all of a sudden improving. Harris is averaging 18.3 carries per game even with Warren in the lineup, so while Cordarrelle Patterson will see some snaps, this should be a heavy usage of Harris who also contributed five receptions last week. |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard | 13.44 | 6500 | Hubbard is such a difficult player to rank this week. Through two weeks, he had just 20 total touches, yet last week he had a breakout game with Andy Dalton at quarterback as he had 26 touches for 169 yards and a touchdown including 5 receptions. Hubbard has always been a good receiving back, and the matchup should once again be a good one taking on a Cincinnati defense that is decimated on the defensive line. At $6,500, he's still extremely cheap, but there is risk here. We've seen Dave Canales quickly abandon the run when the Panthers fall behind. You could have him ranked at #1 this week or all the off your board if you think last week was just an anomaly |
| 4 | Aaron Jones | 16.02 | 7600 | Playing Aaron Jones in a revenge game at Green Bay who have struggled to stop the run seems like a no brainer. Green Bay allowed 100 yards or more to Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley through the first two weeks of the season. The problem with Jones and why he is fourth this week is the price. At $7,600, he's just a little higher priced than we'd like him to be. Jones looked great last week against Houston running for 102 yards while catching 5 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. The game script was perfect for Minnesota as they got out to an early lead against the Texans and were never in jeopardy. |
| 5 | James Conner | 14.14 | 7500 | James Conner is the type of player that as soon as his price starts with a 6 on FanDuel, he's in everyone's lineup consideration. However, once it crosses that $7k threshold people seemingly just completely ignore the running back. There's a lot to like about Conner this week in what could be a shootout of a game against Washington. The hardest part about Conner is to ignore your recency bias, the last time that we saw him was against one of the league's best-run defenses in Detroit in a game that had a negative game script as Arizona fell behind early. In Conner's first two games, he was great with 15.8 FanDuel points against Buffalo and 21.9 against the Los Angeles Rams. |
| 6 | Zack Moss | 13.39 | 6900 | The way to beat Carolina has been on the ground for the last several seasons and this year is no different. Through three weeks, the Panthers have allowed 201 yards to the Chargers running backs and 132 yards to New Orleans. While they looked better last week, that was largely a factor of the Raiders having very little rushing ability combined with a negative game script for the Raiders last week. What's intriguing about Moss is that he caught 5 passes last week and continues to dominate the snap share from Chase Brown. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Diontae Johnson | 15.51 | 6,200 | The Panthers offense was completely revitalized after the switch to Andy Dalton at quarterback. With Adam Thielen out, Johnson should see as much volume as he can handle. Johnson was tremendous last week with 8 receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals secondary is a mess as they were torched by Terry McLaurin last week and Rashee Rice in Week 2 both who had 16 or more FanDuel points. At $6,200 all we are hoping for is 13 points to hit cash value and with upside far greater than that, expect Johnson to be the highest rostered player this week. |
| 2 | Nico Collins | 16.28 | 7,700 | Nico Collins was a disappointment in Week 3 as was the entire Texans offense as they got blown out by Minnesota 34-7. Collins saw 10 targets including four in the red zone but was unable to find the end zone as he ended up with 86 yards on the day. If we look at the season as a whole, this is a player who has 117 yards, 135 yards, and 86 yards through three games. At $7,700, he should be priced in the mid $8k range near Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr., and A.J. Brown. Instead, continue to take the discount this week even if you were burned by him last week as he's the clear number one guy in Houston in a premiere matchup against Jacksonville. |
| 3 | Chris Olave | 11.97 | 6,900 | Chris Olave was a dagger last week as he was between 30-40% rostered in most cash games. Olave had 6 receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown, which was the second consecutive game with 80 or more yards. This week he takes on a Falcons defense that have struggled against number one receivers as they allowed 75 yards or more to DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, and Rashee Rice with Rice having 12 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. What's interesting about Atlanta is that the other receivers are not impacting them hardly at all making their overall numbers look fantastic, but for now it is safe to start your number one receivers against this team. |
| 4 | Amari Cooper | 12.08 | 6,400 | Amari Cooper was one of the worst wide receivers in football through the first two weeks but bounced back in a big way last week as he had 7 receptions for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. For the Browns to have any chance at making the playoffs this season, they need Cooper to play at a high level, at least until Nick Chubb is able to return as the Browns have had no rushing offense all season. Last week, we saw the Raiders struggle to stop Diontae Johnson who the Panthers are using as a very similar receiver to Cooper as cornerback Jakorian Bennett has struggled this season. |
| 5 | Jakobi Meyers | 11.27 | 5,400 | How are the Raiders going to move the ball with Davante Adams being out? They've shown no ability to run the ball this season and are facing a very good Cleveland run defense. In the passing game, they're likely going to rely on Meyers and Brock Bowers. At $5,400, Meyers is extremely cheap, so if you need to go down and save some salary this week, Meyers should get 8 or more targets in this game. |
| 6 | Terry McLaurin | 12.8 | 6,500 | McLaurin is a difficult player to project here. At $6,500, to get a number one receiver in a matchup that should be one of the highest scoring games on this slate is intriguing. Last week, McLaurin had 4 receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. The issue with McLaurin is the risk that you have to take in order to play him this week, as in his first two matchups this season he had just 17 yards and 22 yards. At $6,500 the price is going to be intriguing, and his chemistry with Jayden Daniels should continue to grow, but there's certainly risk here as his floor is lower than we would typically like. |
| 7 | George Pickens | 12.71 | 6,100 | Value is the play this week, and Pickens is a tremendous play at $6,100 this week. At $6,100 Pickens has yet to have his breakout performance that we've grown accustomed to, but he's in an extremely favorable matchup this week against Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed over 100 yards to Rome Odunze and Nico Collins this season. The Colts have a big hole on the outside as both Dallis Flowers and Samuel Womack III have struggled mightily this season, and Jaylon Jones has just been average over the first three weeks on the other side of those corners. |
| 8 | Chris Godwin | 14.91 | 7,300 | Is Chris Godwin going to score a touchdown every week this season? This is a scenario where I've avoided him the first three weeks, and the second I play him he'll stop scoring. Godwin has two total red zone targets all season, yet has scored three touchdowns. This is not sustainable especially for a player who is averaging just 11.1 yards per reception over the last four years. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 11.78 | 6,500 | With no Davante Adams, Bowers should see a significant number of targets this week. With tight end being extremely thin this week, Bowers is the player with the highest floor this week as he has averaged 7 targets per game this season. |
| 2 | Zach Ertz | 7.6 | 5,100 | The theme of this week is that you're going to have to likely take a player who you're uncomfortable with at one position to save salary. For Ertz, he's averaging four receptions per game and while he may not have the upside that a Brock Bowers or some of the other tight ends on this slate do, being able to save $1,000 or more from the high-end tight ends could allow you to upgrade somewhere else if you're uncomfortable going cheap at a different position. The way to think about this is largely like Najee Harris +Brock Bowers or Aaron Jones + Zach Ertz. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | 11.11 | 3,700 | The Browns are without their top two tackles as Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are both out, while backups James Hudson and Dawand Jones are both limited in practice this week. The Browns allowed 8 sacks last week, while Deshaun Watson has had fumbling issues so far this season as he's fumbled three times. At $3,700 I'm not even considering another defense this week. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 136.6)
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,200
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,600
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,500
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,700
- WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,400
- WR Diontae Johnson, CAR, $6,200
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,500
- Flex RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.3)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,200
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,600
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,500
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,700
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,500
- WR Diontae Johnson, CAR, $6,200
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,500
- Flex RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.8)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,200
- RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,600
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,500
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,700
- WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,500
- WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,400
- TE Zach Ertz, WAS, $5,100
- Flex RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,000
- TD Las Vegas, $3,700
Player Chart
