Cracking FanDuel Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

10:30AM EST:

As of now, there's nothing surprising that broke overnight. Where I've been spending most of my time going back and forth is whether going down from Amari Cooper to Jakobi Meyers allows an upgrade elsewhere. 

Where I've landed is that the upside of Amari Cooper/Drake London/D.J. Moore/Terry McLaurin is higher than the gap between Hubbard and Aaron Jones. Hubbard does pose risk if the Panthers fall behind early, but even then should still get enough out of the passing game to pay off this week.

Regarding the $6,400-$6,600 range, Cooper remains the favorite, followed by McLaurin, London, and Moore. For Cooper, the Browns received some positive news that Nick Chubb's return could be soon, and if they could win this game their season is right back on track. As road favorites, the only consistent path to moving the ball is through Cooper as they have no running game to speak of, and the Browns had to see how the Panthers used Diontae Johnson to dominate this matchup last week.

• QB Jayden Daniels, WAS, $8,200
• RB Najee Harris, PIT, $6,600
• RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,500
• WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,700
• WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,400
• WR Diontae Johnson, CAR, $6,200
• TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,500
• Flex RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,000
• TD Las Vegas, $3,700

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Arizona (vs WAS) – 27.0 points
• Cincinnati (at CAR) – 26.0 points
• Houston (vs Jax) – 25.75 points

Week 3 Recap

Week 3 was a difficult week. While fading Jordan Mason worked, the lineup still finished about 8 points below the money line. This puts the season at 2-1 on the year, and kills the dream of an undefeated season. It ended up being a week where percent rostered aggregated much more than anticipated around players as basically the entire roster outside of Nico Collins was 30% or higher rostered this past week.

Total points scored- 99.28

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,300- 15.78
• RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700- 7.3
• RB Cam Akers, LAR, $4,000- 9.4
• WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,600- 10.6
• WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500- 7.3
• WR Rashee Rice, KC, $7,300- 26.1
• TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,300- 5.6
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,400- 14.2
• TD Tennessee, $3,700- 3.0

What went right:

• There’s nothing that went right here. While you can point to Rashee Rice, he was rostered in about 70% of rosters last week.

What went wrong:

• De’Von Achane just didn’t do enough at 30% rostered. To only catch the ball three times was surprising. Skylar Thompson got hurt which forced Tim Boyle to get into the game, but it wouldn’t have mattered.
• Nico Collins at 21% rostered was a disappointment. Houston just didn’t show up on the road as they lost 34-7. Collins did see several red zone targets right at the end of the game, but was unable to cash in on a touchdown.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

Week 4 has quite a few uncertain situations. Check back on Sunday Morning Lineup Update once we get clarity and how you should react to this news.

• Jordan Love seems to be 50/50 this week. It’s probably just a complete stayaway for fantasy as Malik Willis would be interesting if he was a little bit cheaper, but this is a defense in Minnesota that just completely neutralized the Texans passing attack. So taking a chance on Love likely seems like a bad 1980’s song.
• Davante Adams is out this week. This is a tricky one, as both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers both should get an upgrade against Cleveland. The path for the Raiders to be competitive this week is through the air as Zamir White and this rushing attack have done nothing this season. Expect Bowers to be one of the highest rostered players on this slate, while Meyers is a good play although not a must one as he comes with his own risks regarding a low floor, but did have 7 receptions last week.
• Justin Herbert is looking like he will be out this week. With no Herbert, the Chiefs offense gets a downgrade in what should be a less competitive game despite Taylor Heinicke looking like he will get the start.
• Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce look more doubtful than questionable this week, although Mixon did return to practice on Friday. Cam Akers is more expensive than we’d like him to be at $6,100 given his struggles last week, but if you need a cheap running back he could be someone to look at this week.
• Jaylen Warren is out this week. This should be a perfect matchup for Najee Harris going up against a bad run defense in Indianapolis.
• A.J. Brown might return this week. It seems unlikely, but he did practice on Friday. DeVonta Smith is also out for the Eagles. If Brown is unable to go, it could just be a must play for Saquon Barkley, as the Eagles do not have a great receiving option amongst Jahan Dotson, Johnnie Wilson, and Parris Campbell. If one of them was cheaper, it could be tempting, but as of now, it’s Barkley or Dallas Goedert this week.
• Chris Olave is questionable this week, but he did travel with the team on Saturday. With him traveling within 24 hours of the game, it would seem reasonable that he is going to play this week. 

Week 4 Strategy- Difficult Week

This is a difficult week this week as there is seemingly very little value on the board despite a large number of injuries. What you’re going to need to do is decide where you want to spend down in order to build a competent lineup. There are a number of mid-priced guys, but they all bring certain level concerns. Whether it is volatility such as Terry McLaurin or Amari Cooper, players filling in for an injury like Jakobi Meyers, or players with big roles but not all that skilled such as Najee Harris or Chuba Hubbard. Ultimately those are the caliber of players that we’re looking at this week.