Sunday Morning Update
No change to the primary cash lineup this week. A lot of you have reached out with options including Godwin and Mason. I have fully admitted these are good plays this week, but I'm taking a stand and going in a different direction.
Personally, I'm just going in a different direction in my build this week. This is a bit of a stick your neck out on the line week for me as even though there have been two good weeks to the season, if Godwin and Mason both have big games I'm going to look like a fool. I'm ok with that, I've been doing this for 13 years now, and the goal of this article has always been to show you how I'm playing DFS while calling out the
Let's roll.
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,300
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $4,000
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,600
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $7,300
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,300
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,400
- TD Tennessee, $3,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (at ARI) – 27.5 Points
- New Orleans (vs PHI) – 26.0 Points
- San Francisco (at LAR) - 25.0 Points
- Baltimore (at DAL) - 25.0 Points
- Arizona (vs DET) - 25.0 Points
Week 2 Recap
Last week was an interesting week. After falling behind early due to Jayden Daniels and not having Chris Godwin, the Sunday Morning update sneaked by for a profitable week. This gets the primary lineup to 2-0 on the season. I wrote about it last week, but it was one of the least skill weeks in quite some time based on Kupp, Mason, Deebo, and Breece Hall all being over 50% rostered. It was surprising to see Jordan Mason not 100% rostered, but instead around 80% rostered in most of the 100-team 50/50’s. This is encouraging for future weeks as there still seems to be some edge even in what should be the easiest weeks.
Total points scored- 136.54
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $7,900- 13.44
- RB Breece Hall, NYJ, $8,500- 20.9
- RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,500- 19.9
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $7,700- 5.7
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,900- 16.0
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr., SF, $7,300- 17.0
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,200- 15.7
- Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $6,500- 21.9
- TD Denver, $3,400- 6.0
What went right:
- The lineup largely avoided any landmines besides Cooper Kupp who was 80% rostered in most 50/50’s.
What went wrong:
- Switching out Malik Nabers. Nabers was outstanding finishing as the third highest performer at the wide receiver position. Nabers had 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown last week.
- Jayden Daniels was a tough one. The team kicked seven field goals, so it’s hard to call it a bad play, as if one or two of those are touchdowns, his day is more than acceptable.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
The 49ers are a mess. San Francisco will be without Christian McCaffrey who is on IR, George Kittle with a hamstring, and Deebo Samuel Sr. with a calf injury. At $6,500, Brandon Aiyuk is going to be one of the most popular wide receivers on this slate. Jauan Jennings also could be a fine punt play at $5,200, but you likely don’t need to go that low on a week with significant value. Jordan Mason is interesting this week. He’s priced all the way up at $8,300, but the loss of George Kittle could actually Hurt Mason as Kittle is one of the league’s best blocking tight ends.
The Rams offense is a mess with Cooper Kupp out this week and Puka Nacua on IR. If you had to punt the position, Jordan Whittington is likely the guy at $4,600 as he replaced Kupp after his injury. However, on 50% of the snaps last week, he did manage just 2 targets, but no receiver had more than 4 targets last week. With the Rams having a full week to game-plan a strategy, they could look at Whittington who will allow you to stack the rest of your lineup.
Raheem Mostert seems unlikely to play this week. Last week we saw De’Von Achane have 29 touches. While Achane should be used heavily this week with Skylar Thompson getting the start for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, it’s unlikely he will have anywhere close to 29 touches again this week as Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like he will return after missing last week.
A.J. Brown will miss this week with a hamstring injury. DeVonta Smith should be a strong cash game consideration after having 75 yards or more in each of his two games this season.
Joe Mixon is doubtful this week, while Dameon Pierce has already been ruled out for Houston. This means Cam Akers should see a majority of the volume for the Texans. At the minimum price, Akers should be a highly rostered player this week.
Ken Walker III is doubtful with an oblique injury. Zach Charbonnet will get the start again this week after finding the end zone last week to save his day. Charbonnet has been extremely unproductive as a runner in the games that he has been the primary back. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry in games with 14 carries or more. At $6,700 he should still be considered for cash games this week.
Jordan Love is a game-time decision. While we likely are not going to target any Packers this week against a good Tennessee defense, if Love is unable to go, the Titans instantly become the top defense on the board. It seems more likely than not that Love will be out one more week as coach Matt LaFleur made comments that they’ll give him up until 90 minutes before the game to make the decision.
Cash Game Late Swap Strategy
I spoke a little bit about this on X/Twitter last Sunday. After Chris Godwin had a big start to the week, I posted the following Tweet about potentially looking to late swap. The thinking behind this was relatively simple, but I received a lot of people who reached out saying that they had never used late swap before.
When to think about using Late Swap
For cash games, there are two key times to use late swap.
- The most common occurrence is when you’re getting off to a slow start like what happened last week. In this scenario, you’re going to want to look to see if you have any players who are going to be very highly rostered. If you get off to a slow start, you want as much randomness and variance in your lineup as possible. What this means is that you want the most amount of opportunities to be different than your opponent. You can look at a simple swap like the one-for-one Kupp for Collins that I posted about, or if there is not an ideal one-for-one swap, you can completely change your lineup by doing a two-person late swap if necessary.
- The second scenario when you can use late swap is if you’re off to a great start in a given week, but you have chosen to fade a very popular player or defense. In this scenario, you’re going to try to do the exact opposite of scenario number one. In this scenario, what you’re trying to do is minimize the variance of outcomes by creating as many ties with your opponents by having overlap. If you’re in a head-to-head this is much easier to do.
One key thing is to always have the player who is playing last in your flex position. So, if you’re starting three running backs, and one of them plays at 4PM, make sure that player is in your flex spot. This will give you the most opportunity to utilize the late swap.
At the end of the day, a lot of players who are similarly priced are often separated by projections within 1-2 points of each other. Football can be a random game at times, so utilize the late swap feature to at least give yourself additional outcomes. It’s not a perfect strategy, but if you’re evaluating whether you need to make a move, it will increase your return on investment over the course of a season.
Player Pool
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Kyler Murray | 20.77 | 8300 | The way to beat the Lions is through the air, and through two weeks Murray is off to one of the best starts in the NFL. Kyler Murray is averaging 21 FanDuel points per game. Last week, Murray could have had a much bigger day than he did, but the Rams were unable to keep up with the 41 points that the Cardinals put on the board. Murray was asked to throw the ball just 21 times in Week 2. |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | 17.92 | 7300 | The stat sheet is not going to impress most people last week outside of the rushing touchdown, but if you watched the game last week Deshaun Watson started to show signs of being able to make significant improvements after a disastrous Week 1 start. The issue for the overall stat line was that there were some awful drops by Amari Cooper in that game against Jacksonville which is now two weeks in a row where Cooper has not been able to help his quarterback. With the Browns having red zone struggles with no Nick Chubb, they could once again turn to Watson in the red zone. The Browns should be able to do whatever they want against this Giants defense, which should continue to build the confidence of the once All-Pro quarterback. |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 23.7 | 8800 | Lamar Jackson is the one player that has been my kryptonite as a DFS player. He has as much upside as any player on this slate, but at the same time can be extremely frustrating to pay $8,800 for a player who we saw last week run for just 45 yards. This should be a game in which Jackson performs well, as the team is 0-2, and going to be a bit desperate on the road against Dallas. With Dallas' pass rush and the Ravens poor offensive line, we could see the quarterback run as a way to try to mitigate that pass rush pressure. However, it is a risk, and at $8,800, he's a better GPP play than cash game this week. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cam Akers | 11.04 | 4000 | To get a running back at $4,000 that is going to see almost all of the volume for this offense, it is almost a no brainer regardless of matchup. The matchup is largely a neutral one, as Minnesota looked good in Week 1 shutting down Devin Singletary and the Giants, but that was a game where the game script worked heavily in their favor. In Week 2, they allowed 100 yards to Jordan Mason. |
| 2 | Tony Pollard | 14.26 | 6800 | Through two weeks, the Packers have allowed 100-yard rushers in both games, and is looking like they are one of the worst run-stopping units this season. However, they have faced two of the better rushing offenses in the NFL in Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Tony Pollard meanwhile has faced two of the league's best defenses in Chicago and New York and has 60 yards or more in both of those games and has largely calmed the concern of a committee in Tennessee as he has out-touched Tyjae Spears 41 to 16. With Spears questionable this week, expect Pollard to get a significant amount of volume once again. |
| 3 | De'Von Achane | 16.81 | 7700 | After 29 touches, it's unrealistic to expect 29 again this week, but Achane should still be in line for a massive workload this week. With Skylar Thompson making his first start since his rookie season, the Dolphins are going to try to make the game easy for their inexperienced quarterback. Expect checkdown's to Achane who caught 7 passes last week, while also setting up a running game |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | 18.44 | 8400 | if deciding between Jordan Mason and Alvin Kamara who is $100 more than Mason, you may want to look at Kamara this week. Kamara is the more dynamic player who is coming off of 7th career 3-touchdown game as he was able to find the end-zone four times last week. Kamara is able to beat defenses through the air or on the ground and this is a Klint Kubiak offense that is featuring Kamara heavily this season. So much so, that Taysom Hill does not have a target or carry in the red zone through two games this season. The Saints take on the Eagles who were abysmal stopping the run in Week 2 allowing Bijan Robinson to run for 6.9 yards per carry as this defensive line is a mess at the moment. |
| 5 | Jordan Mason | 19.02 | 8300 | Mason has been outstanding through two weeks as he has topped 100-yards in both games, averaging 123.5 rushing yards per game. However, there are some concerns for Mason. The biggest concern is his ability to catch the ball. Through two weeks, Mason has caught just two passes despite being on the field for 81% of plays. At $8,300, Mason would need to top 100-yards in order to reach value unless his receiving volume increases due to the amount of injuries that the 49ers are dealing with. Fading Mason could be a big risk, but it could be one that allows you to have a significant advantage over your competition. |
| 6 | D'Andre Swift | 13.11 | 6300 | If you're looking for a cheap running back this week outside of Akers, D'Andre Swift could easily be the target. While the Bears offense has struggled, the question is whether the matchups have just been two of the most difficult matchups in the NFL or if this is a bad rushing offense. We know how great the Texans run defense is under DeMeco Ryans, and it remains to be seen how Tennessee's defense looks, but so far they're a good run defense. Indianapolis on the other hand is the exact opposite. Through two games, the Colts have allowed two running backs to top 150 yards rushing against them as both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs both eclipsed the 150 mark. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brandon Aiyuk | 14.92 | 6,500 | With no Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk has 80 yards or more in three of his last four games with at least 50 yards in all four games. Now, we've never seen Aiyuk with no Kittle, McCaffrey, and Deebo, so at the very least we largely know where a lot of Brock Purdy's pass attempts will funnel towards. At $6,500, the price is a great one, although there is always risk with Aiyuk as his floor is lower than what we typically would want for a cash game format. However, given the upside and the 49ers need for a playmaker on the road Aiyuk should have at least 10 targets in this game. Also helping Aiyuk is that Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward appear to be out this week which will hopefully allow the Rams to keep this game more competitive than it otherwise would be if those two were playing. |
| 2 | Rashee Rice | 15.16 | 7,300 | With the injury to Isiah Pacheco, it's difficult to see how the Chiefs run the ball. Carson Steele looks like he is going to be the primary running back as an undrafted free agent. Steele has been unimpressive with just 9 carries for 27 yards, and his struggles are likely a big reason the team brought in Kareem Hunt who will not play this week. All that said, this seems like a big passing gameplan for the Chiefs. Rice's price has not moved up enough as he has back-to-back 75-yard or more games despite only averaging 7.5 targets per game. With the Chiefs running the ball 32 times last week, it seems highly unlikely that they will run the ball anywhere close to that amount this week which should mean an uptick in targets for Rice. |
| 3 | Nico Collins | 15.66 | 7,600 | Collins seems underpriced this week. While a lot of the hype is going to be surrounding Stefon Diggs' return to Minnesota, it has been Collins through two weeks that has been the more effective receiver. Through two weeks, Collins has 117 and 135 yards as the 6'4 receiver seems primed to emerge as one of the game's elite receivers after his season was hindered by injuries last year. With Tank Dell largely a non-factor through two games, this is an offense that is going to feature Collins until defenses can force the Texans to pivot to Diggs and Dell. |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson | 18.48 | 9,200 | If Jefferson was fully healthy, we would likely have him higher on this list. Houston's defense is a funnel defense that you'll need to throw against to have success as they boast one of the league's best run-stopping units. With Jordan Addison out, Jefferson should be able to see as much volume as he can handle as the Vikings will likely need to throw the ball more than 26 times this week to beat the Texans. |
| 5 | CeeDee Lamb | 17.82 | 9,300 | Lamb has got off to a slow start through two games. This week, the Cowboys take on the Ravens that should be a favorable matchup. Through two games, Baltimore has allowed 100-yards to both opponents wide receiver one as Davante Adams had 110 yards and a touchdown while Rashee Rice had 103 yards back in Week 1. For the Cowboys, Lamb is a significant part of their offensive gameplan this week. While he is expensive, he is someone to look at if you have the salary to pay up on the high end this week. |
| 6 | Jameson Williams | 12.29 | 6,300 | If you're looking for upside, Jameson Williams may have more upside than any receiver in this 6k range besides Brandon Aiyuk. Through two weeks, Williams has averaged 10 targets per game, while still being just $6,300. He leads the NFL in red zone targets with 5 through two games which should translate to far more touchdown opportunities than the $6,600 Chris Godwin |
| 7 | Chris Godwin | 12.8 | 6,600 | Chris Godwin has got off to a tremendous start this season. However, there still are a number of questions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver. The biggest one is whether Baker Mayfield's 2024 season is truly a breakout season where he is going to be playing at an MVP caliber to sustain having both Mike Evans and Godwin having great seasons, or whether Godwin's productions has been propped up due to two very easy matchups. This week is significantly more difficult taking on a Denver pass defense that is allowing just 144 pass yards per game. They have the desirable combination of a very good pass defense combined with a very bad offense which has allowed teams to take a run-heavy approach against them. The price is still intriguing at $6,600 and he will likely be popular this week, but this is a player who had just two touchdowns last season and only has one red zone target through two games yet has two touchdowns. |
| 8 | Diontae Johnson | 10.49 | 5,300 | With Andy Dalton starting at quarterback for Carolina, all bets are off as far as how this team will perform this week. This could be a game like we saw last season where Dalton comes out and plays extremely well as he threw for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 37-27 loss to Seattle last year. If that's the case, Johnson should be a big benificiary this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 11.09 | 6,300 | Through two games, Brock Bowers has been outstanding. Facing two talented defenses on the road, Bowers has averaged 7.5 receptions for 78 yards while amassing 8.5 targets per game over the last two weeks. This week, the Raiders come home for the first time of the 2024 season and get to face the lowly Carolina Panthers. This should be a game that they showcase the rookie tight end and will almost certainly give him an opportunity if they get down to the red zone. |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | 10.52 | 7,200 | We've seen this story play out before where Travis Kelce has a slow start to the season, and everyone is quick to write him off as he's too old or washed up at this point. There are concerns at age 35 whether the tight end who is the same age as Rob Gronkowski who last played a game in 2021 while looking old is going to be able to rebound after an offseason of touring the world and partying on tour with Taylor Swift. How much did Kelce dedicate himself with other priorities this offseason such as being on every commercial, building a podcast brand, etc. Even with all of that, this is the deciding week. In a game that is going to be more difficult than most think, how will Kelce perform when the team is without their running back and will look to both him and Rashee Rice to move the ball. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tennessee | 11.08 | 3,700 | If they're facing Malik Willis, they'll be an auto-start this week. $3,700 is just too good of a price for this defense that has been great through two weeks. |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 9.18 | 3,800 | The Bears have been competitive through two weeks thanks to their defense. Facing Anthony Richardson who has four interceptions through two games this season, the Bears would be the move if Jordan Love does start. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.0
Fully recognize that this is a risk this week fading Jordan Mason. However, at $8,300, the cost is just too high for me for a player who is not going to be catching the ball. Also, not taking Lamar Jackson is likely going to be a risk. If you’ve followed this thread long enough, you’ll know that one of my guiding principles is that I build my cash game lineup in isolation. I only then look at other people’s content before publishing this article to make sure there are not glaring risks and to identify any of the popular players across the industry.
This is a process that has allowed me to be profitable for the 13 years playing DFS. I will sometimes change my lineup to not want exposure against certain players that will be extremely popular. I am ok with having exposure against Lamar, Chris Godwin, and Jordan Mason this week. Of the three, Lamar scares me the most.
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,300
- RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $4,000
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,600
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $7,300
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,300
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,400
- TD Tennessee, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 140.7)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,800
- RB Tony Pollard, TEN, $6,800
- RB Cam Akers, HOU, $4,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,300
- WR Zay Flowers, BAL, $6,800
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500
- TE Brock Bowers, LV, $6,300
- Flex RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700
- TD Tennessee, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.4)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,300
- RB D’Andre Swift, Chi, $6,300
- RB Cam Akers, HOU, $4,000
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $9,100
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,600
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,500
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,800
- Flex RB De’Von Achane, MIA, $7,700
- TD Tennessee, $3,700
