Thursday Morning Update:
No Thursday Update this morning as no major injury news has broken. Drew Lock will almost certainly start for the Giants, and is a high risk upside play for GPO
Thanksgiving Slate Thoughts
First and foremost Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who is reading this. Thanksgiving is always one of the most fun DFS slates out there, and this year is a bit different. We really have three different types of games. The Chicago at Detroit game could turn into a bit of a blowout, the New York at Dallas game is two bad offenses, but two equally bad defenses which could make for some unique opportunities despite only a 37.5 point total. The last game, Miami at Green Bay, should be the best game of the day, but it is two tricky offenses from a DFS perspective combined with two good defenses, especially on the Miami side of things as their pass defense is one of the best in football.
This week is all about finding an anchor around what game scripts that you want to believe in. For example, if you believe the Lions will blowout the Bears, you should stack the Lions, but maybe avoid David Montgomery who is questionable to play this week as it would seem likely that the Lions may pull him early if the game gets out of hand. If Tommy DeVito sits, could you stomach playing Drew Lock at just $6,400. Locke should have some upside in this game, mostly around the fact that Dallas’ defense is horrendous and Lock is almost certainly better than Tommy DeVito.
Finally, in Miami vs Green Bay. Picking the right combination of players from this game, is likely going to be the key this week particularly on the Green Bay side. Josh Jacobs will be popular based on his three-touchdown performance last week, but fading him could give you a leg up on your competition as Jacobs is projected to be rostered in about 50% of lineups tomorrow. The other factor here is the weather. It’s currently projected to be 22 degrees and snowing which for a Miami team going on the road could make for an interestingly difficult situation.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs CHI) – 28.5 points
- Green Bay (vs MIA) – 25.5 points
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Tommy DeVito is questionable this week with a forearm injury. While DeVito isn’t playable, he’s reportedly a “long-shot” to play this week. If DeVito is out, this is an upgrade to the entire passing offense of the Giants. Malik Nabers will see an upgrade, Drew Lock is at least passable as a quarterback if you want to punt the position, and the overall outlook for the Giants increases.
- David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown are questionable this week, although they appears good to go. If they were to miss, Jahmyr Gibbs (Montgomery) and Jameson Williams/Tim Patrick would both see upgrades.
- Romeo Doubs is out for Green Bay with a concussion. This should primarily be an upgrade to Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, although Tucker Kraft should see an upgrade here as well.
- Jake Ferguson is out again with a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker should be in a great spot this week. The Giants have been good against tight ends as they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, but they’ve also faced one of the weakest schedules against the position this season.
Thanksgiving Slate Strategy:
Most years, we give the advice not to play cash games on just a three game slate. However, over the nine years that we’ve done this article, there have been seasons where it has been ok to do so. This is one of those years. This year, you’re going to see a heavy trend towards Caleb Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Jayden Reed. These are all players that personally I’m ok with taking my chances against. It’s a week where the popularity of DraftKings mis-priced players seems to be carrying over into FanDuel. For example, Jameson Williams is going completely overlooked on FanDuel as he’s overpriced on DraftKings at $6,100, while Reed is going to be extremely popular on FanDuel where he’s overpriced yet underpriced on DraftKings.
For GPP’s, a large portion of the crowd is going to be tempted to game stack this week which means loading up with 5+ players from the same game and just hope that game is a shootout compared to the other two games. Here’s the thing, that can work on some of the larger slates because there are more opportunities for that 42-39 performance as well as more opportunities for failure from other players with such large player pools. This week, to truly win a GPP, you’re either going to need to find one player that is on almost no one’s radar or you’re going to need to hit on just about every player in your lineup. With the second option it means that you’re going to need to have players likely from all three games most of the time. This can create an advantage as other players are just overstacking games, particularly the first one as they want to see their lineups get out to an early lead. So going away from Jared Goff and Caleb Williams could be a smart strategy this week if you’re looking to build a contrarian lineup as so many people will just want to see that they’re winning money early in the day.
Another strategy for GPP’s is leaving money on the table, but don’t get too crazy here. Leaving $400-$800 on the table is fine, and will give you some differentiation between opponents. Any more than that is likely just leaving an upgrade on the table that you otherwise could have made. You’ll see people leaving $1,500+ unused simply to get uniqueness, but in reality it is just lowering their chances of winning.
Player Chart
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jared Goff | 18.6 | $8,200 | Of the players that have the highest upside on this slate, it has to be Jared Goff at the top of the list. While the Bears pass defense started strong, last week they were completely gashed by Sam Darnold who threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Looking at the Bears schedule, it's been one of the weaker quarterback schedules in the NFL as they've faced Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Drake Maye. The best quarterbacks that they've faced were C.J. Stroud back in Week 2 and either Darnold or Matthew Stafford who did not have either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. At $8,200, the price is not overly prohibitive where he could have 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and be a key piece for a GPP. |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | 17.4 | $7,200 | How are the Bears going to move the ball against Detroit this week? It almost certainly is through the air, as the Lions have one of the league's best run defenses. While their pass defense is also very good, the game script is going to tell Chicago that you might as well go chuck the ball around and hope you get lucky. Williams is the most mobile quarterback on this slate as he has run for at least 30 years in five of his last seven games which is a nice bonus compared to some of the other quarterbacks this week. The Lions largely shut down Anthony Richardson last week holding him to just 172 yards through the air, but there were a lot of plays that were called back because of penalty that would have made this a much bigger day for the Colts last week. The Lions have allowed 250 yards or more to Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love, and while Williams as a passer is not at the level of Love or STafford yet, is certainly on the level of Rudolph, Darnold, or Smith. Last week, he threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns while finding a strong connection to Keenan Allen who looked 6 years younger back in his prime. |
| 3 | Jordan Love | 17.4 | $7,500 | While weather and the matchup are a concern here, the price for Love just seems too low. Miami's defense has looked much less dominant with Kendall Fuller out and he will also miss this week. Fuller was injured in Week 10, and in those three games, Miami allowed 293 yards to Matthew Stafford, 282 yards and 2 touchdowns to Gardner Minshew II, and 222 yards and a touchdown to Drake Maye. Love has been struggling as of late, but has three 3+ touchdown games this season against Minnesota, Arizona, and Houston. He's just touchdown dependent due to the lack of mobility and for a guy who has thrown just three touchdowns over the last four weeks, despite the team scoring 102 points in those four games make it difficult to trust him. |
| 4 | Drew Lock | 15.5 | $6,400 | Drew Lock looked more than competent in his two starts last season. While he's not a player who is going to wow you with arm talent, he's more than capable of hitting open wide receivers and moving the ball down the field. This week, taking on a Dallas secondary that has allowed 250 passing yards or more the past two weeks to C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels both who are struggling should be a good sign that Lock should at least be able to put up respectable numbers here. If he can have 240 yards and 2 touchdowns the path to victory is that none of the quarterbacks have massive games and you spend the salary on other positions. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Rico Dowdle | 13.2 | 6100 | This is just a bad price from FanDuel. Dowdle should be near 100% rostered, although he's trending to be only rostered by about 50% of lineups. Dowdle had 22 touches last week against Washington and had 86 rushing yards with three receptions and 12 yards to finish with 11.3 FanDuel points. The issue for Dowdle is that he does not have a rushing touchdown all season, but he does have three receiving touchdowns and does lead the team's running backs in red zone opportunities. Facing the Giants who have one of the league's worst run defenses should make for a massive upside for Dowdle at just $6,100 while allowing you flexibility to build out the rest of your roster. |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 18.0 | 8400 | If you can pay up for a running back this week, Jahmyr Gibbs is likely the player to do so. The Bears have serious issues at the linebacker position, and Gibbs should be able to exploit this weakness this week. Running behind the NFL's best offensive line, Gibbs is coming off of a 21 carry 3 reception performance last week against the Colts. The Bears are spiraling defensively as of late as they allowed over 100 yards to Aaron Jones last week and have now allowed at least 70 yards rushing in each of their last four games. If David Montgomery is less than 100% which it seems likely, it would seem unlikely that he would be in on anything other than short yardage packages which could limit Gibbs' touchdown upside, but Gibbs has 11 touchdowns on the season even with Montgomery playing every game. |
| 3 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 11.8 | 6500 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. was game scripted last out of last week's game as he had just 9 carries in the 30-7 loss. However, ignoring last week, Tracy had averaged 18 carries in each of his last three games, topping 100 yards and a touchdown in two of them. Dallas is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Tracy is underpriced at $6,500 and allows for significant flexibility in your lineup this week. |
| 4 | De'Von Achane | 17.7 | 9000 | It's hard to figure out what to do with De'Von Achane on this slate. He has significant upside as evidenced by his two touchdown performance last week, but we're getting back to a point where the volume just isn't consistent enough to justify a $9,000 price point. The Dolphins have had some of the easiest run defenses in the NFL over the last four weeks with the Patriots, Raiders, Rams, and Bills and Achane has 19.1, 18.5, 7.7, and 28.1. The 28.1 is obviously great, and the upside is real, but the Packers are a better defense than each of those four teams. Jaylen Wright has also seen and increase in his role as he has at least five carries over the last four games, while Raheem Mostert is seeing about 20% of the snaps. At $9k, the price just seems a little bit too high in a game where there are serious questions how Miami will react to a 20 degree game in Green Bay. |
| 5 | Josh Jacobs | 17.2 | 7800 | Josh Jacobs is tricky. At $7,800, he's under-priced based on the performance last week in primetime and FanDuel not factoring in primetime into their salary. Heis going to be popular given the week that he had with his three touchdown 100-yard performance, and has at least 75 rushing yards in each of his last four games. For most weeks $7,800 is a very fair price, but this week paying $7,800 for a running back who doesn't catch as many passes as we would like could jeopardize some of the key players that you're going to want to fit into your lineup such as a Jahmyr Gibbs or De'Von Achane. Jacobs has averaged just 1.5 receptions per game over the last four weeks, and while he's scored 6 touchdowns in those four games, he's taking on a Miami defense that, since Week 7, is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. Weather is the x factor here, as will the defense show up in the cold weather for Miami, or will Green Bay offensive line dominate the warm-bodied defensive line in the cold weather. Jacobs is trending to be about 50% rostered, which is just too high for GPP's. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jameson Williams | 11.7 | 5,700 | Why is Jameson Williams only $5,700? The knock on Williams is that he has volatility issues, but he's topped 50 yards in seven of his nine games this season including topping 75 in five of those nine. His floor is near zero as evidenced by the two games he failed to get to 50, but this is a player who has caught four touchdowns in nine games. With Amon-Ra St. Brown less than 100%, it could lead to additional volume for Williams this week. |
| 3 | Jaylen Waddle | 9.7 | 6,300 | Jaylen Waddle is just $6,300 this week after coming off of a 8 reception 144 yard and a touchdown performance? He's simply too cheap for a game that could have bad weather and force the Dolphins to throw underneath frequently. With no Jaire Alexander, the Packers are going to put an extra emphasis in stopping Tyreek Hill this week, which should only increase Waddle's involvement. Also, who wouldn't love to see the penguin dance in the snow? Perfection. |
| 2 | Keenan Allen | 9.8 | 6500 | Allen finally had a breakout performance that the Bears had been hoping for this season. Allen had 9 receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown last week against the Vikings. This week, taking on a Lions defense that does have some issues at the slot corner as Amik Robertson has been the weakspot of this defense. This should open up opportunities for Allen this week in a game that the Bears are going to need to throw the ball heavily. |
| 4 | Malik Nabers | 14.7 | 8,000 | This could really go one of two ways. Malik Nabers called out Brian Daboll for not getting him the ball until the game was 30-0 last week. It could either go with the scenario where he is in the coaching staff's doghouse, or they wake up and realize that they have one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL and they didn't throw him the ball. With Drew Lock starting, we have to believe the upside for Nabers is better than Tommy DeVito as Lock can simply make more throws on the field than DeVito who has one of the worst arms in the NFL. |
| 5 | Jayden Reed | 11.6 | 6,900 | Jayden Reed is going to be one of the most popular plays of this week due to the injury to Romeo Doubs. However, the issue for Reed is that while he has some big performances topping 100 yards three times this season, he has three or less targets in three of his last four games. While the Doubs injury should add 5-6 or so targets that can be spread across the receivers, this is not a scenario where a lead receiver is out and all of a sudden there is a clear defined number two player. The Packers are completely ok with spreading the ball around and scheming the right player open, so to take a player with this low of a floor is risky when he's going to be 30%+ rostered. |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb | 14.6 | 8,600 | CeeDee Lamb is interesting this week. The targets continue to be there with Cooper Rush as he has 10 or more targets in six straight games. However, the production since that primetime San Francisco game has completely fallen off. The issue for Lamb is that he has just 1 of his last 32 receptions have gone for more than 13 yards and he is averaging just 7.1 yards per catch. For a player who throughout his career is averaging 12.7 yards per catch, this almost certainly has to normalize, but the Cowboys just are not asking him to run deep routes with Rush as they try to methodically move the ball down the field. |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 15.6 | 9,000 | With Jalen Ramsey primarily going to be locked up with Christan Watson for most of the game due to Romeo Doubs' injury, the two positions to target are slot corner Kader Kohou and the other outside corner Storm Duck who is an undrafted rookie. Reed's price has fallen to just $6,900 due to two poor performances the last two weeks, but he has shown upside with three 100 yard games this season. There's still major risk here as he has under 30 yards in four of his last six games, but the upside is there to be a potential GPP winner. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jonnus Smith | 10.2 | 6,300 | If you can afford him, Jonnu Smith is the clear top tight end this week. Over the last two weeks, Smith has at least 80 yards and has scored three touchdowns in the two games. He's become one of the team's primary red zone targets as he has seven red zone opportunities over the last two games. |
| 2 | Tucker Kraft | 8 | 5,500 | If you can't afford Jonnu Smith, Kraft is likely the player to target. With no Doubs, and with the Packers having volatility issues with the rest of their receiving staff, Kraft at least has shown an upside with six touchdowns on the season including three in his last five games. He leads all receivers and tight ends in red zone targets for the Packers, and if there was a player to catch multiple touchdowns, it would likely be Kraft this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Dallas | 11.8 | 4,100 | We saw the difference that Micah Parsons can make last week when he is healthy. Last week, Parsons had two of the team's four sacks and forced Jayden Daniels to be uncomfortable the entire game which ultimately led to two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Giants have major offensive line issues since the injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas as Chris Hubbard is starting for New York and may be the worst pass blocker in the NFL. |
| 2 | Detroit | 10.7 | 4,700 | They're expensive, but the Lions are the top defense on this slate. As big favorites, they should force the Bears into a pass-heavy game plan which will lead to sacks and potentially turnovers. If you can fit them in at $4,700, you can do so and feel relatively safe about it. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has, in most cases, 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 122.4)-
- QB Jared Goff, DET, $8,200
- RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, $6,500
- RB Rico Dowdle, DAL, $6,100
- WR Jameson Williams, DET $5,700
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $6,300
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $8,000
- TE Jonnu Smith, MIA, $6,300
- Flex Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,400
- TD Dallas, $4,100
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –GPP- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 117.9
- QB Drew Lock, NYG, $6,400
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,400
- RB Rico Dowdle, DAL, $6,100
- WR Jameson Williams, DET, $5,700
- WR Malik Nabers, NYG, $8,000
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,900
- TE Jonnu Smith, MIA, $6,300
- Flex Josh Jacobs, GB, $7,800
- TD Green Bay Packers, $4,200