When the Chicago Bears selected Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in April, few doubted he was ready for the moment. Coming out of Gonzaga in the Washington D.C. area, he was a 5-star recruit and one of the top high school prospects at any position. As we know, he initially chose Oklahoma to play for Lincoln Riley and followed Riley to USC, where he started for two seasons, including a Heisman Trophy-winning campaign in 2022.
Unlike many years when there was debate about who should be selected No. 1, it was clear for months leading up to the draft that Williams would be the Bears' choice. Now, Williams has an opportunity to reshape how we think of the Bears' offense completely.
The Worst Passing Team in NFL History
In the lead-up to the draft, NFL pundits said things like, "The Bears have never had a great quarterback," but does NFL history back up that reputation?
Per-Game Passing Stats, NFL Franchises (Super Bowl Era -- 1966 through 2023), Sorted by Passer Rating
| From | To | Team | Gms | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | TD% | Int% | Rate | Sk | Sk% | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2023 | HOU | 355 | 20.6 | 33.0 | 62.5% | 218.8 | 1.34 | 0.89 | 4.1% | 2.7% | 86.3 | 2.6 | 7.9% | 6.63 |
| 1966 | 2023 | DAL | 899 | 18.9 | 31.4 | 60.2% | 215.0 | 1.48 | 1.07 | 4.7% | 3.4% | 84.3 | 2.3 | 7.3% | 6.84 |
| 1966 | 2023 | SFO | 899 | 19.1 | 31.7 | 60.3% | 214.4 | 1.48 | 1.04 | 4.7% | 3.3% | 84.3 | 2.3 | 7.2% | 6.76 |
| 1966 | 2023 | GNB | 899 | 19.2 | 32.2 | 59.6% | 213.7 | 1.57 | 1.10 | 4.9% | 3.4% | 83.6 | 2.3 | 7.3% | 6.64 |
| 1995 | 2023 | JAX | 467 | 20.1 | 33.4 | 60.1% | 209.9 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 82.1 | 2.6 | 7.8% | 6.29 |
| 1966 | 2023 | KAN | 899 | 18.3 | 31.0 | 58.9% | 203.0 | 1.32 | 0.96 | 4.3% | 3.1% | 82.0 | 2.3 | 7.3% | 6.55 |
| 1966 | 2023 | MIN | 899 | 19.4 | 32.3 | 59.9% | 210.6 | 1.43 | 1.11 | 4.4% | 3.4% | 81.9 | 2.5 | 7.6% | 6.51 |
| 1996 | 2023 | BAL | 451 | 19.8 | 33.0 | 60.1% | 204.8 | 1.32 | 0.91 | 4.0% | 2.8% | 81.7 | 2.3 | 6.9% | 6.21 |
| 1976 | 2023 | SEA | 759 | 18.6 | 31.6 | 58.9% | 203.2 | 1.42 | 1.05 | 4.5% | 3.3% | 81.4 | 2.6 | 8.2% | 6.43 |
| 1968 | 2023 | CIN | 870 | 18.7 | 31.6 | 59.1% | 202.7 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 4.3% | 3.2% | 81.3 | 2.4 | 7.7% | 6.41 |
| 1967 | 2023 | NOR | 885 | 19.6 | 32.7 | 59.8% | 213.6 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 4.3% | 3.5% | 80.9 | 2.2 | 6.6% | 6.53 |
| 1966 | 2023 | IND | 899 | 19.0 | 32.2 | 59.1% | 210.2 | 1.41 | 1.10 | 4.4% | 3.4% | 80.9 | 2.1 | 6.6% | 6.53 |
| 1966 | 2023 | MIA | 899 | 18.8 | 32.0 | 58.8% | 208.3 | 1.42 | 1.13 | 4.4% | 3.5% | 80.3 | 2.0 | 6.3% | 6.52 |
| 1966 | 2023 | WAS | 899 | 18.5 | 31.9 | 58.2% | 205.9 | 1.36 | 1.06 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 80.0 | 2.3 | 7.1% | 6.46 |
| 1966 | 2023 | NWE | 899 | 18.6 | 32.2 | 57.8% | 209.6 | 1.44 | 1.13 | 4.5% | 3.5% | 79.8 | 2.2 | 7.0% | 6.51 |
| 1966 | 2023 | LAC | 899 | 19.8 | 33.7 | 58.6% | 225.7 | 1.45 | 1.24 | 4.3% | 3.7% | 79.7 | 2.1 | 6.2% | 6.70 |
| 1966 | 2023 | LVR | 899 | 18.0 | 31.4 | 57.2% | 206.4 | 1.45 | 1.19 | 4.6% | 3.8% | 79.1 | 2.5 | 7.9% | 6.56 |
| 1966 | 2023 | LAR | 899 | 18.4 | 31.7 | 58.0% | 205.6 | 1.33 | 1.12 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 78.9 | 2.3 | 7.2% | 6.49 |
| 1966 | 2023 | ATL | 899 | 18.1 | 31.2 | 58.1% | 198.8 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 4.2% | 3.6% | 78.7 | 2.8 | 8.9% | 6.37 |
| 1966 | 2023 | DEN | 899 | 18.5 | 32.1 | 57.5% | 208.4 | 1.37 | 1.16 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 78.5 | 2.5 | 7.7% | 6.49 |
| 1995 | 2023 | CAR | 467 | 18.9 | 32.3 | 58.4% | 202.3 | 1.25 | 1.04 | 3.9% | 3.2% | 78.5 | 2.5 | 7.7% | 6.26 |
| 1966 | 2023 | PHI | 899 | 18.8 | 33.0 | 57.1% | 204.3 | 1.39 | 1.07 | 4.2% | 3.3% | 78.4 | 2.8 | 8.4% | 6.20 |
| 1966 | 2023 | PIT | 899 | 17.4 | 30.5 | 57.0% | 197.5 | 1.32 | 1.16 | 4.3% | 3.8% | 77.4 | 2.3 | 7.4% | 6.46 |
| 1966 | 2023 | DET | 899 | 18.4 | 32.0 | 57.3% | 198.4 | 1.26 | 1.13 | 3.9% | 3.5% | 76.3 | 2.6 | 8.3% | 6.20 |
| 1966 | 2023 | NYG | 899 | 17.9 | 31.5 | 56.9% | 196.2 | 1.24 | 1.11 | 3.9% | 3.5% | 76.1 | 2.5 | 8.0% | 6.23 |
| 1976 | 2023 | TAM | 759 | 18.8 | 32.7 | 57.3% | 204.7 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 76.0 | 2.4 | 7.2% | 6.25 |
| 1966 | 2023 | TEN | 899 | 17.8 | 31.0 | 57.4% | 195.5 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 75.9 | 2.3 | 7.4% | 6.31 |
| 1966 | 2023 | BUF | 898 | 17.6 | 30.9 | 56.9% | 191.2 | 1.29 | 1.21 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 75.2 | 2.4 | 7.8% | 6.19 |
| 1966 | 2023 | CLE | 851 | 17.8 | 31.5 | 56.4% | 194.2 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 74.0 | 2.4 | 7.6% | 6.17 |
| 1966 | 2023 | ARI | 899 | 18.7 | 33.1 | 56.6% | 205.0 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 73.8 | 2.5 | 7.6% | 6.19 |
| 1966 | 2023 | NYJ | 899 | 17.8 | 31.4 | 56.6% | 193.6 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 3.8% | 3.9% | 73.6 | 2.4 | 7.6% | 6.16 |
| 1966 | 2023 | CHI | 899 | 16.7 | 29.7 | 56.4% | 175.0 | 1.07 | 1.18 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 71.4 | 2.4 | 8.0% | 5.89 |
Chicago Datapoints:
- 32nd (Worst) in Passer Rating (71.4)
- 32nd in Yards per Attempt (5.89)
- 27th in Sack Rate (8.0%)
- 32nd in Interception Rate (4.0%)
- 32nd in Touchdown Rate (3.6%)
- 32nd in Passing Yards (175.0)
- 32nd in Completion Rate (56.4%)
It's been HARD for Windy City residents. But even the worst franchises occasionally luck into greatness for a season or two, right? Not the Bears, at least not when it comes to their quarterbacks.
Top 25 Chicago Bears Quarterback Seasons, Sorted by Passing Yards (Super Bowl Era)
| Rank | Player | Season | Age | Gms | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | TD% | Int% | Sk | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erik Kramer | 1995 | 31 | 16 | 315 | 522 | 60.3% | 3,838 | 29 | 10 | 5.6% | 1.9% | 15 | 7.4 |
| 2 | Jay Cutler | 2014 | 31 | 15 | 370 | 561 | 66.0% | 3,812 | 28 | 18 | 5.0% | 3.2% | 38 | 6.8 |
| 3 | Jay Cutler | 2009 | 26 | 16 | 336 | 555 | 60.5% | 3,666 | 27 | 26 | 4.9% | 4.7% | 35 | 6.6 |
| 4 | Jay Cutler | 2015 | 32 | 15 | 311 | 483 | 64.4% | 3,659 | 21 | 11 | 4.3% | 2.3% | 29 | 7.6 |
| 5 | Jay Cutler | 2010 | 27 | 15 | 261 | 432 | 60.4% | 3,274 | 23 | 16 | 5.3% | 3.7% | 52 | 7.6 |
| 6 | Mitch Trubisky | 2018 | 24 | 14 | 289 | 434 | 66.6% | 3,223 | 24 | 12 | 5.5% | 2.8% | 24 | 7.4 |
| 7 | Rex Grossman | 2006 | 26 | 16 | 262 | 480 | 54.6% | 3,193 | 23 | 20 | 4.8% | 4.2% | 21 | 6.7 |
| 8 | Mitch Trubisky | 2019 | 25 | 15 | 326 | 516 | 63.2% | 3,138 | 17 | 10 | 3.3% | 1.9% | 38 | 6.1 |
| 9 | Jim Harbaugh | 1991 | 28 | 16 | 275 | 478 | 57.5% | 3,121 | 15 | 16 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 24 | 6.5 |
| 10 | Jay Cutler | 2012 | 29 | 15 | 255 | 434 | 58.8% | 3,033 | 19 | 14 | 4.4% | 3.2% | 38 | 7.0 |
| 11 | Erik Kramer | 1997 | 33 | 15 | 275 | 477 | 57.7% | 3,011 | 14 | 14 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 25 | 6.3 |
| 12 | Kyle Orton | 2008 | 26 | 15 | 272 | 465 | 58.5% | 2,972 | 18 | 12 | 3.9% | 2.6% | 27 | 6.4 |
| 13 | Jay Cutler | 2013 | 30 | 11 | 224 | 355 | 63.1% | 2,621 | 19 | 12 | 5.4% | 3.4% | 19 | 7.4 |
| 14 | Justin Fields | 2023 | 24 | 13 | 227 | 370 | 61.4% | 2,562 | 16 | 9 | 4.3% | 2.4% | 44 | 6.9 |
| 15 | Jim Harbaugh | 1992 | 29 | 16 | 202 | 358 | 56.4% | 2,486 | 13 | 12 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 31 | 6.9 |
| 16 | Jim McMahon | 1985 | 26 | 13 | 178 | 313 | 56.9% | 2,392 | 15 | 11 | 4.8% | 3.5% | 26 | 7.6 |
| 17 | Vince Evans | 1981 | 26 | 16 | 195 | 436 | 44.7% | 2,354 | 11 | 20 | 2.5% | 4.6% | 23 | 5.4 |
| 18 | Jay Cutler | 2011 | 28 | 10 | 182 | 314 | 58.0% | 2,319 | 13 | 7 | 4.1% | 2.2% | 23 | 7.4 |
| 19 | Jim Miller | 2001 | 30 | 14 | 228 | 395 | 57.7% | 2,299 | 13 | 10 | 3.3% | 2.5% | 11 | 5.8 |
| 20 | Dave Krieg | 1996 | 38 | 13 | 226 | 377 | 59.9% | 2,278 | 14 | 12 | 3.7% | 3.2% | 14 | 6.0 |
| 21 | Justin Fields | 2022 | 23 | 15 | 192 | 318 | 60.4% | 2,242 | 17 | 11 | 5.3% | 3.5% | 55 | 7.1 |
| 22 | Mitch Trubisky | 2017 | 23 | 12 | 196 | 330 | 59.4% | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 31 | 6.6 |
| 23 | Jim McMahon | 1983 | 24 | 14 | 175 | 295 | 59.3% | 2,184 | 12 | 13 | 4.1% | 4.4% | 42 | 7.4 |
| 24 | Jim Harbaugh | 1990 | 27 | 14 | 180 | 312 | 57.7% | 2,178 | 10 | 6 | 3.2% | 1.9% | 31 | 7.0 |
| 25 | Jack Concannon | 1970 | 27 | 14 | 194 | 385 | 50.4% | 2,130 | 16 | 18 | 4.2% | 4.7% | 24 | 5.5 |
All hail, Erik Kramer? It's hard to believe that a nearly 30-year-old season would be the franchise's statistical best, but Kramer's 1995 totals remain the benchmark.
- The Bears have NEVER had a 4,000-yard passer
- Chicago has NEVER had a 30-touchdown passer
- The team has never attempted 600 passes
- The Bears have never averaged 8.0 yards per attempt
Jay Cutler is inarguably the team's most accomplished passer:
- 4 of the top 5 seasons
- 5 of the top 10 seasons
- 6 of the top 13 seasons
- 7 of the top 20 seasons
For comparison, there have been 108 quarterback seasons with at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in the modern era, while the Bears have none as a franchise.
- Peyton Manning did it 9 times
- Drew Brees also did it 9 times
- Tom Brady did it 8 times
- Aaron Rodgers has done it 7 times
- Philip Rivers did it 6 times
- Patrick Mahomes has done it 4 times
Can Caleb Williams Set the Record as a Rookie?
With the Bears quarterback's historic ineptitude on full display, we can say definitively that it would be a colossal disappointment if Caleb Williams doesn't rewrite the Bears record books over his career. But should we bet on him doing so as a rookie? Let's look at recent history:
Rookie Starting QBs (2014-2023, Minimum of 10 Games)
| Rank | Player | Year | Gms | PaYds | PaTDs | INTs | RuYds | RuTDs | FPTs | RankPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Herbert | 2020 | 15 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 340.8 | 10 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | 2016 | 16 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 298.9 | 7 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | 2019 | 16 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 295.3 | 15 |
| 4 | Jameis Winston | 2015 | 16 | 4,044 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 292.1 | 21 |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud | 2023 | 15 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 | 286.0 | 9 |
| 6 | Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 14 | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 256.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Daniel Jones | 2019 | 13 | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 279 | 2 | 245.0 | 13 |
| 8 | Gardner Minshew II | 2019 | 14 | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 0 | 243.2 | 17 |
| 7 | Mac Jones | 2021 | 17 | 3,802 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 240.0 | 31 |
| 10 | Carson Wentz | 2016 | 16 | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 150 | 2 | 228.3 | 30 |
| 14 | Josh Allen | 2018 | 12 | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 222.1 | 18 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 17 | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 222.0 | 36 |
| 12 | Marcus Mariota | 2015 | 12 | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 2 | 215.9 | 16 |
| 13 | Derek Carr | 2014 | 16 | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 87 | 0 | 211.5 | 31 |
| 15 | DeShone Kizer | 2017 | 15 | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 419 | 5 | 209.7 | 31 |
| 16 | Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | 13 | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 209 | 1 | 187.7 | 28 |
| 17 | Sam Darnold | 2018 | 13 | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 187.4 | 36 |
| 19 | Joe Burrow | 2020 | 10 | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 | 186.7 | 15 |
| 18 | Blake Bortles | 2014 | 14 | 2,907 | 11 | 17 | 419 | 0 | 185.2 | 35 |
| 20 | Bryce Young | 2023 | 16 | 2,877 | 11 | 10 | 253 | 0 | 174.4 | 41 |
| 25 | Lamar Jackson | 2018 | 16 | 1,201 | 6 | 3 | 697 | 5 | 168.7 | 39 |
| 22 | Davis Mills | 2021 | 13 | 2,664 | 16 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 165.0 | 37 |
| 23 | Zach Wilson | 2021 | 13 | 2,334 | 9 | 11 | 185 | 4 | 160.9 | 38 |
| 24 | Kenny Pickett | 2022 | 13 | 2,404 | 7 | 9 | 237 | 3 | 156.9 | 38 |
| 27 | Justin Fields | 2021 | 12 | 1,870 | 7 | 10 | 420 | 2 | 146.8 | 39 |
| 26 | Mitchell Trubisky | 2017 | 12 | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 145.5 | 34 |
| 29 | Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | 10 | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 109 | 3 | 140.5 | 32 |
| 28 | Aidan O'Connell | 2023 | 11 | 2,218 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 136.8 | 36 |
| 30 | Josh Rosen | 2018 | 14 | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 138 | 0 | 134.9 | 45 |
| Average | 14 | 2,945 | 16 | 11 | 257 | 2 | 209.8 | 27 |
Thirty rookie quarterbacks have appeared in at least ten games over the last decade. While we tend to remember and romanticize breakout seasons from C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert, the results are actually far more mixed. On average, rookie quarterbacks have been unrosterable fantasy assets, averaging QB27 on a per-game basis. Yes, a few of these low-ranked players (e.g., Lamar Jackson) had late-season breakout performances, but the odds of having those players on your roster in 12-team redraft leagues were very low until they had a breakout game or two.
But Isn't Shane Waldron a Quarterback Guru?
First, half of the NFL has "quarterback gurus" on their coaching staff; it's the fastest path to move from a young assistant to a senior role as a play-calling offensive coordinator or head coach. Second, while Bears fans have a right to be excited about Waldron joining as OC after the Luke Getsy era failed miserably, we can't be sure Waldron is a difference-maker. As detailed in our analysis of the league's new play-callers, Waldron's resume is a mixed bag.
Waldron spent the last three seasons calling plays in Seattle and was widely praised for turning Geno Smith's flailing career around. While both Getsy and Waldron are from the West Coast offensive coaching tree, their systems are quite different as Waldron's offenses have been among the league's most pass-heavy, while Getsy's Bears ran the ball with abandon. How much of that disparity came down to Justin Fields' (in)ability to throw is unknown, but we do know that Waldron has coached a litany of different quarterback types, from the statuesque Matthew Stafford to the mobile Russell Wilson. Caleb Williams was at his best in college working outside of structure, and Waldron's quarterbacks in Seattle left the pocket nearly 17% of the time (4th among NFL teams over that span), per ESPN. The receiving trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and first-round rookie Rome Odunze eerily mirrors what Waldron had in Seattle with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
But it's worth noting the Seahawks offense only cracked the Top 10 once (9th in 2022) and was league average (16th and 17th in 2021 and 2023, respectively) under Waldron.
Key Offensive Team Rankings, Shane Waldron Seahawks (2021-2023)
| Stat | 21-Rank | 22-Rank | 23-Rank | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Scored | 16th | 9th | 17th | 14th |
| Total Yards | 20th | 13th | 21st | 18th |
| Pass Yards | 23rd | 11th | 14th | 16th |
| Pass TDs | 10th | 4th | 20th | 11th |
| Interceptions | 1st | 10th | 13th | 8th |
| Rush Yards | 11th | 18th | 28th | 19th |
| Rush TDs | 9th | 22nd | 20th | 17th |
Shane Waldron might be the perfect fit for Williams, and unlike many of the new offensive coordinators hired this cycle, he has invaluable experience. The bullish take on Waldron's Seattle tenure is that he managed to field a league-average passing offense with Geno Smith. If we think Caleb Williams is better than Geno Smith (and most of us do), it doesn't take mental gymnastics to convince yourself the Bears can be more effective running the same system.
The Receiving Trio is Undeniable
General Manager Ryan Poles is going for it immediately, and he's putting the pieces in place to give Williams a chance at early success. The cornerstone of Poles' approach is filling the receiver room with a tantalizing trio of terrific options.
- The Incumbent Alpha, aka DJ Moore -- Moore started his career in Carolina before joining the Bears last year. He set career marks with 96 receptions, 1,364 yards, and 8 touchdowns despite playing in an offense that only threw for 3,096 yards and 19 touchdowns. Moore was recently signed to a massive extension, ensuring he'll be Williams' top target for the next few seasons.
- The Short-Term Safety Valve, aka Keenan Allen -- Allen joins the Bears after 12 seasons in Los Angeles. Allen ranks 4th and 6th in receptions and receiving yards, respectively, among active players and is coming off his best season with 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, and 7 touchdowns. He'll be a free agent in 2025, but should provide Williams with an enviable calming force in his first season.
- The Generational Prospect, aka Rome Odunze -- This year's wide receiver class was considered an all-timer, thanks mainly to the trio of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. Odunze has the all-around skill set to be an immediate contributor and evolve into a perennial All-Pro.
The Offensive Line Could be the Monkey Wrench
Even if we assume Shane Waldron is an above-average play-caller and that the receiving corps is far better than what most rookie quarterbacks enjoy, none of it will matter if the offensive line cannot keep Williams protected. Our own Matt Bitonti recently updated his 2024 offensive line rankings and isn't optimistic:
Projected Starters:
- LT -- Braxton Jones
- LG -- Teven Jenkins
- C -- Ryan Bates
- RG -- Nate Davis
- RT -- Darnell Wright
Rankings:
- Overall: 24th
- Run Blocking: 13th
- Pass Blocking: 31st
In fairness, we should acknowledge that Pro Football Focus has a more optimistic view of the unit, ranking it 11th overall.
Let's Not Undersell Williams' Off-Script Accuracy
If the offensive line is as bad at pass-blocking as Bitonti thinks, all bets are off for a fantasy-worthy rookie season. But we shouldn't undersell how talented Williams is playing outside of structure. It's one of the main reasons he won a Heisman Trophy and became the consensus top prospect in the April draft. Our own Matt Waldman says it best in his fantastic Rookie Scouting Portfolio:
Williams is capable of efficient and intelligent football and displays it often enough for it to translate to the pros. He can climb the pocket efficiently. He can read the width and depth of the field and exploit early opportunities. He’s a shrewd manipulator of defenses with his physical skills, especially off-structure. He also learns from in-game mistakes and applies those lessons later in the contest. Add the creativity, dynamic athletic skills, and otherworldly placement of the football on- and off-structure to the mix, and you’re looking at
the game of a quarterback who could rival Aaron Rodgers at Rodgers’ best. That’s the player I see as a mover, thrower, creator, and pocket manager when I watch Williams. It’s in a similar realm as Mahomes, just a subtly different flavor of player.
Is Williams Going to Run Enough?
Fellow rookie Jayden Daniels (Washington) is coming off the board 12th among quarterbacks, and Williams follows closely behind at QB13. While I think Williams is the far more polished passer with a much safer long-term floor, Daniels has the more enticing fantasy upside this year because of his mobility. Daniels could rival Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson as a rusher, and we know that rushing stats are 2x to 2.5x (depending on the scoring system) more valuable than passing stats. How should we think about Williams' rushing outlook?
Williams' College Rushing Stats
- 289 rushes
- 966 rushing yards
- 3.3 yards per rush
- 27 rushing touchdowns
The 27 rushing touchdowns are encouraging, but the 3.3 yards per attempt isn't. How do his college numbers compare to the NFL's top rushing quarterbacks?
- Lamar Jackson: 655 rushes for 4,132 yards (6.3 per rush), and 50 touchdowns
- Josh Allen: 237 rushes for 767 yards (3.2 per rush), and 12 touchdowns
- Jalen Hurts: 614 rushes for 3,274 yards (5.3 per rush), and 43 touchdowns
- Kyler Murray: 207 rushes for 1,478 yards (7.2 per rush), and 13 touchdowns
What's the verdict? Who knows? Honestly, I was surprised by Josh Allen's meager rushing totals in college, particularly since he played against lesser competition and was a one-man offensive show. Kyler Murray's numbers are a bit misleading because he was only a full-time starter for a single season and ran for over 1,000 yards that year. I think the point here is that just because Williams didn't have huge collegiate rushing numbers doesn't mean we can rule it out at the NFL level.
Caleb Williams 2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.8 | 334.9 | 516.3 | 3947 | 24.2 | 13.0 | 64.8 | 308 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 291.1 | 394.7 | 4405 | 25.3 | 8.2 | 65.2 | 325 | 2.9 | 4.6 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 351.0 | 555.0 | 4010 | 24.5 | 12.5 | 72.0 | 360 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.0 | 324.0 | 518.0 | 3629 | 23.3 | 16.6 | 72.0 | 273 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 343.0 | 529.0 | 3855 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 55.0 | 265 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
Final Thoughts
Bears fans have every reason to be excited about the changing tides of their long-suffering franchise. Caleb Williams has an excellent chance of becoming the franchise's best quarterback, as the bar is currently set quite low. However, will he break Erik Kramer's single-season record as a rookie? I'm less certain, as history suggests it's unlikely. That said, if Williams is truly a generational talent, a great season can't be ruled out. Both C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert became fantasy QB1s as rookies, and Williams was a higher-rated draft prospect.
GM Ryan Poles deserves credit for setting Williams up for success, with one of the best receiving trios in the NFC, significant investments in the offensive line, and a new play-caller who has extensive experience maximizing quarterback potential. My main concern with Williams is his QB13 ADP. It's simply too high unless he can be a rushing threat. Until I see evidence of his rushing ability, I'd prefer to let someone else draft Williams at that ADP and instead target a more proven pocket passer a few rounds later.