We have enough information now from free agency and the draft to take a stand on early draft ADP values, and where we should be investing in early drafts and trade prospects. Which players' ADP values don't make sense when we look back at 2023 and look forward to 2024?

QB ADP Values

Dak Prescott, Dallas

Underdog ADP: 85.9 (QB9)

Who woulda thunk that Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer would make the best offensive bye-week adjustments in the NFL? It happened anyway, mostly embodied in Dak Prescott throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb a lot. After the Week 7 bye, Lamb was almost seven points ahead of the #2 wide receiver (Tyreek Hill). Fantasy players are buying Lamb staying WR1, and they are drafting him as WR1. Over the same span, Prescott was QB2. So why is he being drafted as an ADP value of QB9? The Cowboys brass aren’t the only ones who somehow remain unconvinced that Prescott is worth a more significant investment. 

Kyler Murray, Arizona

Underdog ADP: 78.6 (QB8)

Start with Murray finishing as QB12 or so in his half of a season, returning from an ACL tear in a new offense without his only wide receiver with significant NFL starting experience from Week 12 on. Add a rookie wide receiver that the hive mind likes enough to take at the 13.4th overall pick on average. Reflect that Murray was QB4 in 2021 and QB7 in 2022 going into the game when he tore an ACL. A QB8 in the seventh round price tag reflects a very conservative outlook for Murray. Maybe C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Joe Burrow will finish ahead of him just as they are ahead of him in ADP, but that doesn’t mean that Murray won’t still be one of the best ADP values at any position. If Murray plays most/all of the season and produces at the 23-25 points-per-game clip he established pre-injury, he’ll be a strong QB1 at a deep discount from the usual cost of that output.

RB ADP Values

Derrick Henry, Baltimore

Underdog ADP: 31.6 (RB9)

Henry’s ADP is cheaper than last year, even though he is getting a wholesale upgrade in situation. He showed no signs of dropoff last year, even though he was running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines in one of the league's worst offenses. Lamar Jackson is the best of both worlds for Henry - a quarterback who forces the defense to play 11-on-11 football and can throw deep to create lighter boxes but doesn’t have the mass to be a primary running option at the goal line. Ravens running backs scored 20 rushing touchdowns last year, so Henry breaking his career-high rushing touchdown mark of 17 is in play. He’s an ideal RB1 at this price.

 James Cook, Buffalo

Underdog ADP: 52.3 (RB13)

Cook had moved up into the early sixth round by the end of the 2023 fantasy draft season. He has only moved up one round in the early 2024 draft outlook. Is that an underreaction? If you look at Cook’s finish as RB14 in PPR leagues last year, it seems appropriate. If you base your projection of Cook on what he did after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11, it seems like a massive underreaction. Cook was RB5 in PPR leagues from Weeks 11-17, and that was with Josh Allen scoring 8 rushing touchdowns to Cook’s one. Any movement of rushing score opportunities to Cook could put him even higher in the Top 5. Cook is in the traditional running back dead zone even though he is very much entering his peak years, turning 25 during the season.

 Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh

Underdog ADP: 92.1 (RB26)

Warren’s ADP doesn’t seem too egregious when you consider that he finished as RB28 in PPR leagues last year. It looks a lot worse when you see Najee Harris above him at 88.1. The Steelers decided not to exercise Harris’s fifth-year option despite a modest cost of $6.8 million. That is at the low end of the going rate for a starting running back, so we can say the Steelers probably don’t see Harris as starting quality. Maybe they don’t even see him as the starter for this year’s team. Warren actually got more snaps than Harris in Weeks 15-17 and posted RB15 numbers over that stretch. With a new offensive staff, Warren could easily become the more featured back and finish as RB15 or higher. Offensive improvements in the post-Matt Canada era could still make Warren (and Harris) values at ADP. It doesn’t seem right that a team with a strong defense and likely run-first approach on offense doesn’t have a running back in the Top 25 of best ball drafts.  If you aren’t in one of the Steelers backs, it’s probably because of the values among veteran starting running backs in the same part of the draft. At worst, the presence of Warren allows you a fallback plan if your top running back options in the 7th/8th aren’t there.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota

Underdog ADP: 72.4 (RB18)

The only way Jones should be lasting this long in fantasy drafts is that a large percentage of the fantasy hive mind thinks he is washed because they stopped paying attention after Jones was hurt for most of the regular season. Starting in Week 16, he put together a string of five 100-yard games in a row, which doesn’t sound like something that washed-up running backs do late in the season. The Vikings are paying him like a starter, and he won’t have to deal with Matt Lafleur’s frustrating penchant for RBBC in Minnesota. Jones' ADP is lower than last year. Consider it an injury discount for a back that looked like one of the best in the league in December and January.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England

Underdog ADP: 77.3 (RB20)

Stevenson was going in the third round last summer and only fell to the fourth round after the Patriots brought in Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott did play a significant role for a #2 running back and Stevenson was only able to muster RB24 numbers in PPR leagues before going down with a high ankle sprain in Week 13. What has changed since then? The Patriots hired a new head coach and offensive coordinator, drafted a quarterback at #3, and signed Antonio Gibson. Two of those should help Stevenson, as even Jacoby Brissett will be an improvement over Mac Jones even if Drake Maye isn’t ready to present a better option than Brissett yet, and it’s clear that the Belichick Patriots were one of the least imposing offensive teams in the league. Gibson was signed to a three-year, $11.25 million deal, which means he should have at least Elliott’s role from last year. Gibson had an even larger role, arguably a #1A role in Washington, but Brian Robinson Jr still finished as RB22. With some sort of semblance of competence on offense, Stevenson’s ADP of RB20 is much closer to his floor than his ceiling if his underperformance last year was more the product of the offense than deficiencies in his efforts.

WR ADP Values

George Pickens, Pittsburgh

Underdog ADP: 46.2 (WR28)

Pickens was WR31 last year, so at first glance, WR28 doesn’t seem like a bad starting point for his ADP value. What makes it bad is that Pickens lost his main target competition (Diontae Johnson), the Steelers offense should improve by play design/calling, quarterback play, or both, and oh yeah, Pickens was WR2 behind only CeeDee Lamb in total points in Weeks 16-17 due to the massive boost embodied in the switch to Mason Rudolph. How bad was the quarterback play if Mason Rudolph can turn a wide receiver into an elite fantasy option? Justin Fields was able to make DJ Moore WR8 last year, root for him to beat out Russell Wilson to start for the Steelers if you take Pickens. Even if Wilson wins, he did enough in an offense that didn’t embrace his talents last year to make Courtland Sutton WR26 through Week 15 before he suffered a concussion in Week 16. So Pickens is being drafted at his floor at WR28; get in before the elevator starts to go up.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay

Underdog ADP: 24 (WR16)

Last year’s WR9 being drafted at an ADP value of WR16 is strange. Evans is turning 31 and lost his offensive coordinator when Dave Canales became the head coach of the Panthers. Still, he showed no signs of wearing down last year, with a better second half than first half of the season. And new offensive coordinator Liam Coen presided over Bucs QB Baker Mayfield’s revival in Los Angeles with the Rams, and he was the architect of the offense around the “good Will Levis” at Kentucky in 2021. Evans is a more palatable second-round pick than many of the wide receivers going immediately ahead of him, whom he finished ahead of last year. That includes Drake London, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, and both 49ers receivers.

TE ADP Values

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Underdog ADP: 52.4 (TE5)

Yes, Andrews got hurt and missed most of the second half of the year, but it was on a tackle that has been banned in the offseason, so we shouldn’t assume that he’s in decline. In fact, Andrews only missed one game due to injury in 2022 and 2021, when he finished as TE4, behind Travis Kelce, and TE1, respectively. In 2023, he was TE3 going into Week 11, when he went down on his seventh snap of the game. His points per game last year was only a fraction of a point behind Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson’s TE1 and TE2 averages. Unless you think Andrews is sure to get hurt again, he’s a compelling pick at TE5 ADP value in a pass offense that showed a lot of improvement in efficiency, even if it didn’t tick up much in pass attempts per game in the first year under Todd Monken. If you do think Andrews is damaged goods with the accumulation of injuries going into his age 29 season, consider Isaiah Likely (Underdog ADP: 181.6, TE23), who was TE5 from Weeks 12-17, only a fraction of a point behind Andrews’ production from Weeks 2-10.