It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I've been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that's like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
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The Running Backs Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Kyren Williams (ADP: RB7) is too risky at his cost.
- De'Von Achane (ADP: RB8) is not an RB1 this year.
- Isiah Pacheco (ADP: RB11) may not have an every-down role.
- Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB12) will have a massive workload.
- Rachaad White (ADP: RB14) has high bust risk.
- Alvin Kamara (ADP: RB17) is still a fantasy stud.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB21) may not overcome the Patriots line play.
- Najee Harris (ADP: RB24) will win fantasy leagues this year.
- Javonte Williams (ADP: RB28) will also win fantasy leagues this year.
- Devin Singletary (ADP: RB33) is attractive at his price.
- Chase Brown (ADP: RB35) over Zack Moss (ADP: RB30).
- Neither Rico Dowdle (ADP: RB44) nor Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: RB38) is worth drafting.
- Jerome Ford (ADP: RB39) is a late-round smash play.
- Gus Edwards (ADP: RB37) may not be the "bell cow" after all.
- Braelon Allen (ADP: RB55) is among the most compelling handcuffs.
- Tank Bigsby (ADP: RB63) isn't washed.
- Jordan Mason (ADP: RB64) is CMC's handcuff.
- Cam Akers (ADP: RB80) is Mixon's backup.
Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Kyren Williams (ADP: RB7) is too risky at his cost.
What I Thought: When we went live with 2024 projections in late February, Kyren Williams was a clear-cut top-8 back, coming off a dominant season with no discernible competition for touches. Investments in the offensive line were the cherry on top of another strong season.
What I Think: First came Blake Corum, who the Rams spent high draft capital to acquire. The former Michigan Wolverine is a perfect fit for McVay's system, and fears of a committee stirred. As if those fears weren't enough, the coaches announced Williams would be the team's primary punt returner. Star offensive players do not return punts. Remember, Williams started last season as the Rams punt returner but was pulled from the role once he became the team's clear RB1. So what does it say that the team has re-installed him into that role? I'm betting they view Corum as far more than an injury handcuff.
De'Von Achane, Miami
De'Von Achane (ADP: RB8) is not an RB1 this year.
What I Thought: Achane was an electric playmaker despite playing a part-time role in an offense that seemingly can't miss and can plug and play anyone into fantasy stardom.
What I Think: While he's dynamic, last year's production was an incomprehensible series of statistical outliers. Even if Achane stays healthy, the odds he'll deliver RB1 numbers again this year are slim, as I outlined in this article. He needs a significant workload increase to pay off at ADP, and that's not how Coach McDaniel is going to build the offense.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City
Isiah Pacheco (ADP: RB11) may not have an every-down role.
What I Thought: The Chiefs made no overtures in free agency or the draft to add competition for Pacheco, meaning that he would be an every-down workhorse, including the ultra-valuable third-down receiving role that made Jerick McKinnon a fantasy star in Kansas City.
What I Think: Pacheco still has a clear path to heavy work on first and second down, but his role as the receiving back took a massive blow in late August when Samaje Perine signed. Perine isn't an impact player, but he's a carbon copy of McKinnon's skill set to the offense, and it seems logical he'll gobble up the lion's share of receiving targets over Pacheco.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB12) will have a massive workload.
What I Thought: The headline contract for Josh Jacobs was misleading. He really signed a one-year deal for a team that has always utilized a committee approach, regardless of the underlying talent of the running backs on the roster. Jacobs would be the lead back, but his path toward the workload he got in Las Vegas just wasn't there.
What I Think: I still think Coach LaFleur wants to spread the ball around, but this offseason couldn't have gone better for Jacobs' 2024 outlook. AJ Dillon is on season-ending injured reserve, and promising rookie MarShawn Lloyd missed most of camp and almost went on injured reserve himself. Unless you think Emanuel Wilson has the skills to hold down 35% of the snaps, Jacobs is going to dominate.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay
Rachaad White (ADP: RB14) has high bust risk.
What I Thought: We were collectively wrong on White last year, as he ended up second in the NFL with 272 carries—tied with Christian McCaffrey. He also caught 64 receptions, making him one of the position's most valuable players. With the same roster returning for 2024, White projected as a top option once again.
What I Think: Liam Coen is potentially a massive downgrade as play caller from the departed Dave Canales. And White's efficiency was terrible on a per-play basis, meaning any degradation in his workload because of game script or injury will drop him down to RB2 or even RB3 territory. In a world where betting on skills pays dividends, betting against players who don't possess elite traits also makes sense.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Alvin Kamara (ADP: RB17) is still a fantasy stud.
What I Thought: The Saints are in limbo without a clear path to reinvigorating their offense. Alvin Kamara is getting close to the age cliff and surely won't be as featured once we see how the Saints build out the roster in free agency and the draft.
What I Think: Neither free agency nor the draft yielded any viable alternatives. And everyone's favorite sleeper, Kendre Miller, is hurt again and in the coach's doghouse. Meanwhile, a closer inspection of Kamara's 2023 showed someone still in their prime. Kamara averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game last year, 0.5 points more than Breece Hall. Now, take a look at Hall's ADP versus Kamara's. Hall led all running backs with 76 catches in 17 games. Kamara had 76 catches in 13 games. If Kamara has a bit of positive touchdown regression, he'll be back in the top 10 comfortably by the season's end.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB21) may not overcome the Patriots line play.
What I Thought: The Patriots finally pulled the plug on the Bill Belichick era and would build around a nucleus of young talent, including Stevenson, who was rewarded with a massive contract extension early in the offseason.
What I Think: Everything I thought then remains true. The Patriots are rebuilding around a youth movement including Drake Maye, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Stevenson. But I didn't account for the fact that the road back to relevance will take a few years and that the offensive line looks like an absolute disaster. If the line is too poorly constructed to risk Maye's career (Brissett got the starting nod despite being outplayed by Maye this summer), then why do we think Stevenson will have the positive game scripts needed to deliver top-20 numbers?
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh
Najee Harris (ADP: RB24) will win fantasy leagues this year.
What I Thought: Whether you're a film junkie or a stat grinder, it was hard not to think Jaylen Warren should be on equal or higher footing than Harris. Coordinator Arthur Smith showed us in Atlanta that he loves mixing and matching personnel, regardless of what we may think about the relative talent levels of each player. Add to that the possibility that Justin Fields would be under center and not check down to his backs, and Harris was an iffy bet as more than your RB3.
What I Think: Jaylen Warren is hurt, and there's been zero from either Russell Wilson or Fields this summer to think the Steelers aren't going to try and win games like the Tennessee Titans did when Smith was calling the plays. Great defense and an unyielding commitment to the ground game are assured, and Harris is still the top option.
Javonte Williams, Denver
Javonte Williams (ADP: RB28) will also win fantasy leagues this year.
What I Thought: Our own Cecil Lammey worried that Williams was on the outs with Sean Payton after reporting to mini-camp out of shape. Surely Payton would look at other options in free agency or the draft.
What I Think: Williams did a complete 180 by the time training camp rolled around. He's in tremendous shape, regained his explosiveness after multiple years derailed by injury, and the coaches raved about him at every opportunity. The Broncos cut Samaje Perine and are set to give Williams an every-down role.
Devin Singletary, NY Giants
Devin Singletary (ADP: RB33) is attractive at his price.
What I Thought: I don't think much of Singletary, and generally don't think investing in players on bottom-five NFL offenses makes sense.
What I Think: I still think the Giants are a bad offense, but the offensive line may not be the league's worst anymore. If the line can be league-average this year, Singletary will have plenty of valuable weeks. The coaches trust him, and neither Eric Gray nor Tyrone Tracy are credible threats to force a committee as long as Singletary stays healthy.
Chase Brown and Zack Moss, Cincinnati
Chase Brown (ADP: RB35) over Zack Moss (ADP: RB30).
What I Thought: Running backs enjoyed a free agent frenzy this offseason, and Moss – who performed well in Jonathan Taylor's stead in Indianapolis – signed with the Bengals to replace Joe Mixon.
What I Think: Doing a deep dive into Moss for the Player Spotlight series illustrated that he's not up to the challenge of being a lead back. Yes, he had a great four-week stretch early last season, but he also had a far less impressive stretch replacing Taylor late in the year. And he's got multiple years of other tape that shows a middling talent incapable of being an every-week fantasy producer. Meanwhile, Chase Brown – the incumbent – is far more athletic and explosive.
Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas
Neither Rico Dowdle (ADP: RB44) nor Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: RB38) are worth drafting.
What I Thought: Jerry Jones promised to go "all in" this year but ended up doing nothing at the running back position other than re-sign Elliott after his one-year stint in New England. I never bought the Rico Dowdle touts and therefore saw Elliott – despite being past his prime – as a cheap late-round flier who would at least push for eight to ten rushing touchdowns, which is all he needs to have value as your RB3.
What I Think: Is there anyone who looked older than Elliott in any NFL training camp this summer? Whatever used to drive him to greatness is long gone, and the Cowboys are going to piecemeal together a committee, but none of them seem likely to consistently produce at a level you need to be in your lineups. And while Dalvin Cook is also washed up, you could make the case he's better than either Dowdle or Elliott, and he's been recently added into the mix.
Jerome Ford, Clevland
Jerome Ford (ADP: RB39) is a late-round smash play.
What I Thought: I initially modeled Nick Chubb to be back on the field early in September and saw an opportunity to draft him at a discount because of projected missed time as a godsend. Chubb, when healthy, should retake his spot as the Browns' offensive engine. All the Browns' backups were only worth considering at the same range as when you draft other talented handcuffs.
What I Think: We now know Chubb will miss at least the first four weeks of the season as he stayed on the PUP list. But we also know that the odds he'll be back 100% in his typical lead role by Week 5 are slim; he'll need some time to ramp back into game shape. That makes Ford a viable starter behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines for four to six weeks. Any time you can draft a tailback outside of the top 35 at the position yet have him in your lineup for a month-plus, you have to pounce on the opportunity.
Gus Edwards, LA Chargers
Gus Edwards (ADP: RB37) may not be the "bell cow" after all.
What I Thought: Chargers GM Joe Hortiz called Gus Edwards “the bell cow, the goal line back, the finisher” when they signed him early in free agency. Edwards was a perfect fit for Los Angeles since he spent the entirety of his career in Baltimore, where Greg Roman ran the offense until 2023. Even with Edwards being primarily a two-down back, his red zone opportunities and the Chargers run-heavy system all but guaranteed fantasy success.
What I Think: The situation remains the same, but the depth chart has evolved. J.K. Dobbins, who also spent his career in Baltimore, signed with the Chargers. Any thoughts that his previous season-ending injuries meant we could ignore Dobbins have been dashed. He was a full participant in camp and is listed as the co-starter. Dobbins is a much better player than Edwards if healthy, and so if you're going to bet on one of them, take Dobbins, who is available later in drafts but has the higher upside.
Braelon Allen, NY Jets
Braelon Allen (ADP: RB55) is among the most compelling handcuffs.
What I Thought: The Jets would run their offense through Breece Hall, and if he got hurt, the Jets would rotate rookies Allen, Isaiah Davis, and incumbent Israel Abanikanda as a committee.
What I Think: Allen was dynamic from the start of camp through the end, running away with the No. 2 job and looking like a credible star in his own right should injuries open the door.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville
Tank Bigsby (ADP: RB63) isn't washed.
What I Thought: By many metrics, Tank Bigsby was the worst running back in the NFL last year. The Jaguars would surely look elsewhere for Travis Etienne Jr.'s backup.
What I Think: Maybe we're being fooled again, but Bigsby looks like a completely different player. And the coaches haven't stopped talking about how they need to give Etienne fewer snaps this year to keep him healthy.
Jordan Mason, San Francisco
Jordan Mason (ADP: RB64) is CMC's handcuff.
What I Thought: We know that Kyle Shanahan's system allows for plug-and-play success. While no one can match Christian McCaffrey's per-touch value, if he got hurt, Elijah Mitchell was ready to step in and be an every-week fantasy option until CMC returned.
What I Think: The thought process remains the same; only Mitchell wasn't the answer to the equation. Mitchell is on season-ending IR, leaving Jordan Mason – who had a strong summer in McCaffrey's place – as a high-value handcuff.
Cam Akers, Houston
Cam Akers (ADP: RB80) is Mixon's backup.
What I Thought: Dameon Pierce had a terrible 2023, but he had the chance to re-assert his value with a strong training camp.
What I Think: Pierce got outplayed by Cam Akers. Yes, the same Cam Akers who suffered a second season-ending Achilles injury last season. Whether you want to bet on Akers is another matter, but we can't ignore the reality that a guy with two Achilles injuries in the last three years broke camp as Joe Mixon's No. 2.
