It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the quarterbacks who have changed my mind and why.
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The Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Josh Allen (ADP: QB1) is not QB1.
- Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB6), are we sure he’s worth it?
- Jayden Daniels (ADP: QB12) is not the top rookie.
- Caleb Williams (ADP: QB13) is the top rookie.
- Justin Herbert (ADP: QB17) is a fade.
- Kirk Cousins (ADP: QB18) warrants caution.
- Deshaun Watson (ADP: QB21) has bad vibes.
- Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB22) may turn back into a pumpkin.
- Bo Nix (ADP: QB29) is an intriguing bargain.
- Russell Wilson (ADP: QB30) and Justin Fields (ADP: QB25) may be two wrong answers.
- Sam Darnold (ADP: QB31) is an NFL starter again.
- Drake Maye (ADP: QB32) is the guy, so he’s not going to be the guy.
- Gardner Minshew (ADP: QB34) has yet another lease on life.
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Josh Allen (ADP: QB1) is not QB1.
What I Thought: Groupthink can be comforting. No one will unsubscribe to our site if we rank Josh Allen No. 1, and he falls short of the mark because everyone else in the industry also has him ranked there. And considering Allen has been first or second in four straight seasons, it’s understandable why so many have him atop their rankings.
What I Think: After a deep dive on Allen, and looking harder at his rushing touchdown regression, and the changeover in offensive philosophies under new coordinator Joe Brady, it’s far more likely Allen will finish in the middle of the top-12 quarterbacks than atop the standings again.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB6), are we sure he’s worth it?
What I Thought: Anthony Richardson is the most athletic quarterback in NFL history, and the few games we saw last year had him atop the fantasy standings. Now that he’s healthy, the sky is the limit for Richardson as he can put up Cam Newton-like rushing numbers with enough passing production to lap the field.
What I Think: Why are we collectively so willing to take the leap of faith? Yes, his limited sample size last year was encouraging. But it was VERY limited! Richardson has started fewer than 20 games since high school. Let that sink in. Yet we’re all drafting him over the likes of Kyler Murray, who’s been a top-10 fantasy quarterback per game every year of his career, and Dak Prescott, who’s coming off a career-best season. Richardson can be a league winner, but it’s no better than a coin toss, and he could also be someone you can’t or won’t start midway through the season.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Jayden Daniels (ADP: QB12) is not the top rookie.
What I Thought: Jayden Daniels’ rushing upside gave him a sky-high floor, and his talent, combined with Kliff Kingsbury’s system, would make him an easy top-12 fantasy option.
What I Think: The upside is still very much a thing, but the concerns are overwhelming. The offensive line is one of the league’s worst. Kingsbury’s track record isn’t as glowing as we think. The receiving corps is in shambles, with an aging, oft-injured tight end and two flawed journeymen vying for No. 2 receiver honors. And most importantly, we’ve already seen Daniels fail to protect himself while rushing, which was the principal criticism draft scouts cited.
Caleb Williams, Chicago
Caleb Williams (ADP: QB13) is the top rookie.
What I Thought: The No. 1 overall pick has an elite future, but we needed to temper our enthusiasm in his rookie year for multiple reasons.
What I Think: Sometimes you have to trust your eyes and your instincts, and despite careful analysis that led me to initial caution, I look at Williams—the player—and see almost no way he fails. He’s shown impressive leadership and is already fully comfortable as the Bears' captain. And his off-platform abilities and mobility, which I initially undervalued, make him likely to deliver QB1 numbers right out of the gates.
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
Justin Herbert (ADP: QB17) is a fade.
What I Thought: Justin Herbert showed us that he can be an elite player as a rookie. Greg Roman, the Chargers' new offensive coordinator, helped Lamar Jackson become an NFL MVP. Herbert should return to elite status after a disappointing 2023.
What I Think: Where do we begin? One, the Greg Roman offense has always been among the most run-heavy; Herbert isn’t going to throw the ball enough to be an elite fantasy asset, particularly since he’s not a rusher like Lamar Jackson. On top of that, Herbert already has plantar fasciitis, and his receiving corps is gloomy at best.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta
Kirk Cousins (ADP: QB18) warrants caution.
What I Thought: Cousins has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback seven times and in the top nine in six seasons. Armed with a massive new contract, the new coaching staff will build around him, and he has a cadre of enticing weapons, including Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London.
What I Think: I’m generally still a fan of what the Falcons' offense can be if things click, but I’m less convinced they will. We’re assuming new coordinator Zac Robinson will be as effective a play-caller as his mentor, Sean McVay. Yet, NFL history is littered with proteges who failed to match their mentor’s productivity. I still like rolling the dice on Cousins as your No. 2 quarterback, but there are a half-dozen other players I feel better about betting on for upside.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland
Deshaun Watson (ADP: QB21) has bad vibes.
What I Thought: Deshaun Watson finished his career in Houston with the best career passer rating in NFL history, slightly edging out Aaron Rodgers. With yet another offseason to get healthy and a bolstered receiving corps, Watson would finally retake his position among the top NFL signal callers.
What I Think: Can you get worse vibes? Watson had a quiet preseason, missed a bunch of practices with arm fatigue, and you couldn’t find many beat writers with good things to say, even though many of them are prone to putting out the most optimistic takes possible. There’s a lot of talk that Watson doesn’t love football anymore, and that’s not the kind of bet I want to take on draft day.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB22) may turn back into a pumpkin.
What I Thought: Baker Mayfield had a storybook season last year, going from a journeyman taking a one-year deal to leading the Buccaneers to a playoff victory against the Eagles. Armed with a new contract and returning all the key skill players from last season, Mayfield was a solid QB2 in deeper leagues.
What I Think: Dave Canales got the Carolina Panthers' head coaching job because of the job he did calling plays in Tampa Bay. But there’s a transitive property here; if Canales is as good as we think, his departure should be equally alarming for Tampa Bay. Liam Coen is a scary replacement. He lasted one season as the Rams' offensive coordinator before returning to the University of Kentucky and fielding one of the more disappointing SEC offenses. Mayfield finished outside the top 16 in five straight seasons before last year, and it won’t take much for him to fall back into the also-rans.
Bo Nix, Denver
Bo Nix (ADP: QB29) is an intriguing bargain.
What I Thought: Bo Nix was a career compiler in college and a quarterback many scouts didn’t see as an early first-rounder, even though Sean Payton drafted him at that level. With the Broncos' offense having more questions than answers, Nix wasn’t worth considering in redraft leagues.
What I Think: Nix earned the starting job with a pitch-perfect training camp and preseason. His short- and intermediate-level throws are exactly what Payton wants for his system, and Nix has the accuracy and mobility to be a dual-threat fantasy asset. Getting the Week 1 job was the final push to elevate Nix into the No. 2 quarterback tier, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a must-start in deeper leagues as the season gets underway.
Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Pittsburgh
Russell Wilson (ADP: QB30) and Justin Fields (ADP: QB25) may be two wrong answers.
What I Thought: I was a fan of the Steelers' approach to the quarterback position. Taking an older franchise quarterback who had another good statistical season but fell out of favor with his coach in Denver and backing him up with a wildly enticing dual-threat option who needed a new home to try and rebuild after losing confidence in the Windy City.
What I Think: The Steelers are still looking for their next franchise quarterback. Wilson “won” the starting job for Week 1, but by no means did his summer scream “comeback king.” And Fields, who got plenty of chances in August to overtake Wilson, couldn’t do so.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota
Sam Darnold (ADP: QB31) is an NFL starter again.
What I Thought: J.J. McCarthy would be the starter sooner rather than later, as the Vikings needed to get him experience as they look to rebuild the roster into contention in 2025 and beyond.
What I Think: McCarthy is done for the year after tearing his meniscus, and Darnold is now confidently positioned as the Vikings' starter. Some are keen on the idea that Darnold still has high-level seasons ahead, but I think we’ve seen more than enough to bet against that outcome.
Drake Maye, New England
Drake Maye (ADP: QB32) is the guy, so he’s not going to be the guy.
What I Thought: Drake Maye didn’t grab the starting job early in camp as his fellow rookie quarterbacks did, and the new coaching staff seemed poised to let Jacoby Brissett orchestrate the offense for much of the season.
What I Think: The right conclusion was born by bad process. Brissett will be the Week 1 starter, but not because he’s the best option. Maye very clearly outplayed Brissett this summer, and head coach Jared Mayo admitted as much last week. But therein lies the rub. Maye is the long-term answer, and the team feels better about his future now than it did in April. But the offensive line looks to be one of the worst in modern NFL memory, and it’s far smarter to let Brissett take the punishment so they don’t set Maye back for years like the Texans did with David Carr.
Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas
Gardner Minshew II (ADP: QB34) has yet another lease on life.
What I Thought: The Raiders are overhauling the franchise from top to bottom, and the new front office and coaching staff had plenty of cover to build toward 2025 and beyond. Therefore, it made sense to let Aidan O’Connell start so they can know for sure whether he’s the answer or they need to draft someone next April.
What I Think: Gardner Minshew II, who played well enough to keep the Colts in playoff contention last year, barely edged out O’Connell this summer. Neither quarterback looked great, so this was more of the coaches opting for the low-upside proven commodity, which is both damning to O’Connell’s long-term future and also means Minshew will have a long leash for the first few months of the year.
