IDP Roundtable, Worst Values

Photo: USA Today Sports

It's almost go time.

In less than a fortnight, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs will open the 2023 NFL season at Arrowhead Stadium. And when they do, another frustrating, thrilling, maddening, exciting season of fantasy football will begin with it.

With the advent of the regular season just around the corner, fantasy draft season has kicked into overdrive—wise managers who wait as long as possible before drafting their teams are feverishly assembling rosters online, at local watering holes, and in sports caves.

As a service to the IDP managers who have yet to draft, the IDP staff here at Footballguys has gathered one final time this offseason to offer their takes on the season to come.

This time, it's the worst IDP values for this season.

Related: Find the best values here >>>

So, listen up.

What defensive lineman is the worst value pick?

Bellefeuil: Zaven Collins is changing positions in his third season as he moves to the outside as an edge rusher. Collins spent some time on the edge in college but, overall, is pretty inexperienced at the position. Collins is a talented player, but it could take him some time to transition to his new role as an edge player—most young pass rushers do. Arizona is going to struggle this year, and it could be an up-and-down first season for Collins in his new role. I'll let someone else take the chance and look at other options.

Brebner: IDP gamers are repeating the mistake they made with Chase Young by reaching for sophomore Aidan Hutchinson at the tail end of the truly elite NFL pass rushers in fantasy drafts. Hutchinson had a successful rookie season with 9.5 sacks, but he accumulated numbers based on volume. At 958 snaps, he played more than all but one lineman in 2022.

The Lions are likely to rotate six edge defenders, including Romeo Okwara, who's now more than a full year removed from an Achilles tendon tear. The second overall pick of 2022 posted a lackluster pass-rush win rate as a rookie. Hutchinson is more likely to follow the trajectory of Chase Young, Jaelan Phillips, and Josh Allen as second-year players who struggled to repeat rookie production than become the next Myles Garrett.

Davenport: Will Anderson Jr. of the Houston Texans is a wildly talented young edge-rusher. The day may come when he's a legitimate top-10 IDP pick at his position. But he's already going that high in some drafts—and it's just not a good idea to draft any rookie edge-rusher that high. Aidan Hutchinson's 52 tackles and 9.5 sacks were a better first season than either Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns or Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers turned in—and Hutchinson barely cracked the top-20 at his position in fantasy points. First-year edge-rushers are generally not a good investment in redraft IDP leagues.

Haggan: Javon Hargrave of the San Francisco 49ers is a big avoid for me. He was a part of the Eagles defensive front that had an insane sack finish rate. Before these past two seasons with the Eagles, Hargrave never eclipsed 37 pressures or 5.5 sacks. Hargrave is now again in a new defensive scheme and 30 years old. He may revert back to his old Steelers ways.

Montgomery: Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys. Parsons has been going off the boards way too high for my taste. Some drafts I have been involved in have him going off as IDP1, leaving us nothing but an opportunity to be disappointed! Parsons is a very good player, but he will be a player keyed in on by offenses and has a huge opportunity to be overdrafted and too expensive to acquire. Wait a few rounds and take Demarcus Lawrence, who has shown us he can feast when Parsons is double-teamed!

Norton: You are not going to find Travon Walker of the Jacksonville Jaguars on any of my teams. As a Cincinnati homer, Walker reminds me of a defensive lineman the Bengals once took first overall. Dan Wilkenson was never really a bust, but his numbers never came close to expectations. We knew when they drafted him that Walker is not a premier pass rusher. On the field, he did a fine job versus the run as a rookie, but his contributions weren't represented in the box score. 22 tackles, 23 assists, and 3.5 sacks is not a lot of production for a guy that played almost 900 snaps. I expect he will improve, but I don't think it will be enough to change my perspective.