Vegas Value Chart: Week 1

John Lee's Vegas Value Chart: Week 1 John Lee Published 09/05/2023

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.

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[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]

UPDATED SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9th @ 2 PM (EST)

Team Opponent Odds Game Total Team Total Passing Running Team Defense
Kansas City Detroit -5 53.5 29.25 ««« «««
LA Chargers Miami -3 51 27 «« ««
Baltimore Houston -9.5 43.5 26.5 «« ««« ««
Minnesota Tampa Bay -5.5 46 25.75 « « «
Seattle LA Rams -5 46 25.5 « «
Jacksonville Indianapolis -4.5 46 25.25 « «
Cincinnati Cleveland -2 47.5 24.75 « «
Dallas NY Giants -3.5 45.5 24.5 « «
Philadelphia New England -4 45 24.5 « «
Detroit Kansas City 5 53.5 24.25
Buffalo NY Jets -2.5 45.5 24
Miami LA Chargers 3 51 24
Denver Las Vegas -3.5 43.5 23.5
Cleveland Cincinnati 2 47.5 22.75
Washington Arizona -7 38 22.5 «««
New Orleans Tennessee -3 42 22.5 «
San Francisco Pittsburgh -2.5 41.5 22 «
Chicago Green Bay -1.5 41.5 21.5
NY Jets Buffalo 2.5 45.5 21.5
Atlanta Carolina -3.5 39.5 21.5 Photos provided by Imagn Images

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