Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | SEPT 5 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deon Jackson | RB | IND | 164.3 | 33.3 |
| 2 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 118.4 | 21.7 |
| 3 | Joshua Palmer | WR | LAC | 195.8 | 13.2 |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 203.1 | 11.2 |
| 5 | Adam Thielen | WR | CAR | 139.0 | 10.8 |
| 6 | Zack Moss | RB | IND | 203.6 | 10.8 |
| 7 | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | 119.6 | 10.1 |
| 8 | Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | 136.3 | 9.0 |
| 9 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 182.2 | 8.3 |
| 10 | Ty Chandler | RB | MIN | 192.2 | 7.8 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 08/29/2023-09/05/23***
This week is all about the wide receivers and running backs, as we have five of each rounding out the top 10. At the wide receiver position, we have Puka Nacua and Marvin Mims as the rookies who are looking at a bigger role with the players ahead of them dinged up and with them showing out during training camp. Joshua Palmer and Van Jefferson are two other names that are younger and that are also getting bumps because of the depth chart and how it is shaking out heading into Week 1. I have been big on Palmer all offseason, thinking he had the WR3 role locked down for the Chargers. The last wide receiver in the risers is Adam Thielen, and early on in the process, drafters were scared off by his age and the Panthers' lack of talent on offense. He has silenced the doubters with a very strong training camp and preseason, as he has shown to be a team leader and a favorite of Bryce Young early on.
The five running backs that are risers this week are Deon Jackson because of the uncertainty of the running back room for the Colts now, with Jonathan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list. Raheem Mostert is the second-highest riser, and this comes as the Jonathan Taylor rumors faded and Jeff Wilson was placed on the IR. Zack Moss, Chuba Hubbard, and Ty Chandler are all risers this week as well, and that has more to do with their roles on the team and the team's depth chart as they are secured into more of a role to start the season.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | SEPT 5 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 200.3 | 23.2 |
| 2 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | MIA | 181.0 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 48.2 | 20.7 |
| 4 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 199.2 | 20.3 |
| 5 | D'Onta Foreman | RB | CHI | 203.3 | 16.5 |
| 6 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 66.5 | 10.1 |
| 7 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 147.5 | 9.9 |
| 8 | Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | 171.3 | 9.6 |
| 9 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 132.1 | 8.7 |
| 10 | Mecole Hardman Jr. | WR | NYJ | 207.4 | 8.1 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 08/29/2023-09/05/23***
With only a handful of days left before the NFL kicks off their season, we are seeing drafters adapt to more secure situations and fading on the players whose roles might be in question due to poor performance, falling on the depth chart, or injury or suspension. The players who are set to miss time on this list to start the season are Jeff Wilson (IR), Jonathan Taylor (PUP), Kyler Murray, Jerry Jeudy, and Jameson Williams.
The other players are mostly depth chart fallers, with the players in front of them securing spots. Zamir White is the number one on the list, falling nearly two full rounds in a week's time. Josh Jacobs looks to run it back from his strong performance last season. D'Onta Foreman has been rumored to be a cut casualty. He survived that but has been dealing with some injuries on top of that. He has slid down the team's depth chart because of both of those things. Rashee Rice is a rookie in Kansas City, and recently, a blurb surfaced that he would not be a full-time player, so immediately, his stock fell. Rondale Moore is the one on this list that I don't understand why people aren't buying at his current ADP price of 171.3. I get that people like the rookie Michael Wilson and think the Cardinals are going to be really bad, but to me, Moore has talent and has a really good opportunity to produce fantasy points regardless of how bad his team is.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- WR Richie James KC - Limited with a knee injury
- RB Isiah Pacheco KC - Not on the injury report and ready to go for Week 1
- QB Joe Burrow CIN - Listed as Day-to-Day
- WR Jerry Jeudy DEN - Working on the sidelines during practice
- WR Cooper Kupp LAR - Looking very iffy for Week 1
- RB Jeff Wilson MIA - Should be ready after the first four games missed
- WR Kadarius Toney KC - Will play in Week 1
- WR Mike Evans TB - Informs Bucs that he will discontinue contract negotiations on September 9
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Sidelined by a hamstring injury
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 659,000/677,376 (97.2%) full currently, with 87,000 new entries this week. This year, the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 85.9% full with 224,000/261,000 entries, with 38,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 74,000/111,252 full, with 19,000 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 64,000/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 8,000 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 948,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 111,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!