Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 22 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deuce Vaughn | RB | DAL | 188.3 | 19.5 |
| 2 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | NE | 146.7 | 19.2 |
| 3 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 174.4 | 16.7 |
| 4 | Nathaniel Dell | WR | HOU | 173.7 | 14.8 |
| 5 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 142.1 | 14.0 |
| 6 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 166.3 | 12.9 |
| 7 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 171.0 | 12.9 |
| 8 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 143.9 | 11.6 |
| 9 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 96.4 | 11.5 |
| 10 | Jeff Wilson | RB | MIA | 165.6 | 10.7 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 08/15/2023-08/22/23***
This week we have three rookies in the top four spots on the ADP risers with Deuce Vaughn, Luke Musgrave, and Nathaniel Dell. A lot of this has to do with their preseason play and strong camp showing as they were already really late-round dart throws and are now bumped up nearly two rounds each. Ezekiel Elliott signing in New England gave him an instant bump in ADP as he is also up nearly two full rounds. We have a couple more tight ends in the risers as Juwan Johnson and Jake Ferguson look like great three tight end build options as they are locked in as the top tight ends on their teams and look to be favorite targets for their quarterbacks.
The Miami backfield saw a shift in ADP this week as both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are up a round each as the rookie De'Von Achane suffered an injury and looks buried on the depth chart. With only a couple of weeks left until kickoff, I would guess that both Mostert and Wilson will continue to rise at ADP as they are looking like the locked-in RBs in Miami. There are two more running backs on the top 10 this week, and they are Kenneth Gainwell and Khalil Herbert as they both have been hinted to be the top RBs on their team's depth chart heading into the season and are both in offenses that can rush the ball.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 22 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | 153.4 | 18.8 |
| 2 | John Metchie | WR | HOU | 196.8 | 14.4 |
| 3 | Taysom Hill | TE | NO | 179.1 | 14.2 |
| 4 | Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 170.1 | 12.7 |
| 5 | D'Onta Foreman | RB | CHI | 175.9 | 12.5 |
| 6 | Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | 149.9 | 12.5 |
| 7 | Jerome Ford | RB | CLE | 187.9 | 11.8 |
| 8 | Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 202.6 | 10.8 |
| 9 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 113.7 | 9.8 |
| 10 | Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | 97.0 | 9.2 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 08/15/2023-08/22/23***
We have two tight ends in the top three this week, with Greg Dulcich and Taysom Hill as fallers. Dulcich continues to have mixed reviews and looks to be not a favorite with the coaches. Taysom Hill has been reported to be set to only play tight end position this year and to be behind Juwan Johnson. I still think there is some upside with Hill and that he will see carries that result into big plays, and he will find a way to produce fantasy points.
We saw a decline in ADP from Kendre Miller, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, and Jerome Ford because of injury news. The closer we get to the season starting, the more we become weary of spending draft picks on players that are already banged up, so all these as fallers make some sense. Kendre Miller is back to full health again and put up a solid performance in the last preseason game, so his ADP might already start to level back out. Treylon Burks is the name that I want to take advantage of now, especially in the tournaments when the second half of the season and the playoff rounds are always the most important.
The other names on the list are wide receivers in John Metchie, Rondale Moore, and Khalil Shakir, and they all appear to be healthy. But the problem with them is that they haven't done much to impress this offseason. But the guys playing beside them have, so their ADPs continue to drop down.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- WR Terry McLaurin WAS - Suffers a toe injury in Monday Night preseason game.
- WR Cooper Kupp LAR - Is back at Rams practice and looks in line to play Week 1.
- RB Jonathan Taylor IND - Has been given permission to seek a trade by the Colts.
- RB Elijah Mitchell SF - Is back at 49ers practice.
- RB Keaontay Ingram ARI - Looks to have the RB2 role locked up in Arizona
- RB Isiah Pacheco KC - Has been cleared for contact.
- RB De'Von Achane MIA - Is considered week-to-week with a shoulder injury.
- TE Juwan Johnson NO - Continues to dominate training camp and has been a favorite for Derek Carr
- TE Dawson Knox BUF - Dealing with a finger injury.
- WR Denzel Mims DET - Heads to injured reserve and will miss the 2023 season.
- QB Sam Howell WAS - Named the Week 1 starter
- RB Javonte Williams DEN - Is back from injury and played well in the preseason game.
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Is back after missing a couple of weeks with an injury
- WR Jameson Williams DET - Is done for preseason with a hamstring injury
- WR Treylon Burks TEN - Will miss a few weeks with an LCL sprain.
- WR Russell Gage TB - Suffers season-ending knee injury
- RB Kenneth Walker SEA - Will be ready for Week 1
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 507,000/677,376 (74.8%) full currently, with 52,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 60.5% full with 158,000/261,000 entries, with 25,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 40,200/111,252 full, with 10,000 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 49,500/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 5,500 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 743,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 85,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!