Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 15 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kareem Hunt | RB | FA | 182.7 | 26.4 |
| 2 | Tank Dell | WR | HOU | 188.5 | 25.0 |
| 3 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 191.1 | 15.4 |
| 4 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 183.9 | 15.0 |
| 5 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 155.5 | 13.6 |
| 6 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 107.9 | 9.1 |
| 7 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 196.0 | 8.6 |
| 8 | Deuce Vaughn | RB | DAL | 207.8 | 7.0 |
| 9 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 175.4 | 6.7 |
| 10 | Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | 170.9 | 6.5 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 08/08/2023-08/15/23***
Kareem Hunt as the number one riser is laughable to me. This is clearly based on all the reports of him meeting with the Saints and the Colts and yet still not finding a home. The speculation lifted his ADP up two full rounds, yet he still remains unsigned. He is a big avoid for me right now in my drafts, and even if he signs with a team, I can't see his ADP rising all that much at its current cost.
At this time of the year, we are also seeing some rookies jump up the board, and there are four names that cracked the top ten this week: Tank Dell, Luke Musgrave, Deuce Vaughn, and Jalin Hyatt. All four players have created some preseason buzz as they made plays during their preseason games, and all continue to have positive vibes during training camps. I like all four of these names, and even with rising ADP, I don't see a reason not to draft them.
The other names on the list are Jake Ferguson, who also looked impressive in preseason action and looks like the clear TE1 in Dallas now. Kenneth Gainwell did not play in the team's first preseason game, but that seems to be an indication that he is the team's lead back. As speculation continues to grow on that, his ADP continues to rise. Hunter Henry continues to gel well with Mac Jones as one of his favorite targets, and his ADP continues to bump up because of it. The last two names - Khalil Herbert and Zamir White - had impressive preseason games where they both scored touchdowns. At this time of the year, you will see ADP be affected by what happens on the field in these preseason games the most on why ADP goes up and down.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 15 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Gesicki | TE | NE | 209.6 | 14.9 |
| 2 | Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 157.4 | 12.3 |
| 3 | Jerome Ford | RB | CLE | 176.1 | 9.7 |
| 4 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | NE | 212.1 | 9.2 |
| 5 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 201.5 | 8.8 |
| 6 | Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | 134.6 | 8.6 |
| 7 | John Metchie III | WR | HOU | 182.4 | 8.5 |
| 8 | Leonard Fournette | RB | FA | 204.7 | 7.9 |
| 9 | Rashid Shaheed | WR | NO | 173.8 | 7.4 |
| 10 | Richie James | WR | KC | 198.9 | 7.1 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 08/08/2023-08/15/23***
The ADP fallers list is the one that always has my attention more so as I want to be able to find discounts when it comes to my drafting style. This week I think there are some nice names to consider in trying to find some value on because of their locked-in roles on their teams. Mike Gesicki (monitor his shoulder injury, though), Tyquan Thornton, C.J. Stroud, Greg Dulcich, and Rashid Shaheed are the five names I like the best in this week's top ten fallers. I know we have some negative buzz on the players, but I also think that they have roles on their teams that will give them opportunities to outperform their falling ADPs. Gesicki and Dulcich are in situations where there is depth at the tight end position on their teams, but in best ball, if you are drafting three tight ends on your team, they make excellent targets at a nice value right now. C.J. Stroud struggled in his first preseason action so that translated to a drop in ADP of 8.8 spots which, again, I feel like he is an excellent QB3 in your builds. Tyquan Thornton and Rashid Shaheed are names that when I think about, I think about them having spike weeks during the NFL season, and in the NFL, finding those types of players so late in drafts is a huge advantage.
The fallers on the list this week that I am not currently drafting as much are Jerome Ford, John Metchie, Leonard Fournette, and Richie James. This is just based on price and opportunity for me. I think these players lack any sort of upside currently, and I don't like to build out my best ball rosters with players that I feel won't give me upside from week to week. Kendre Miller is the last name on the top ten this week, and I remain neutral on him. If he falls in drafts a round past ADP and works with my roster build, I have no issues drafting him. If I have to take him before or at ADP, I often pass on him.
- QB Brock Purdy - Practice restrictions lifted.
- RB Dalvin Cook - Signs with the New York Jets
- RB Ezekiel Elliott - Signs 1-year deal with the New England Patriots
- RB Jonathan Taylor - Back with the team
- RB J.K. Dobbins - Activated off the PUP list
- RB Kendre Miller - Diagnosed with minor knee sprain, but hoping to play in Week 1
- TE Zach Ertz - Cleared for full activity, on track to start in Week 1.
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 455,000/677,376 (67.1%) full currently, with 55,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 51.1% full with 133,000/261,000 entries, with 23,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 30,200/111,252 full, with 7,600 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 43,800/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 5,500 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 658,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 74,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!