Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 8 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | 177.4 | 22.5 |
| 2 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 182.8 | 12.6 |
| 3 | Marvin Mims | WR | DEN | 150.9 | 12.1 |
| 4 | Gus Edwards | RB | BAL | 178.5 | 8.2 |
| 5 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 204.6 | 6.7 |
| 6 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 151.5 | 6.2 |
| 7 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 198.9 | 5.8 |
| 8 | Chase Claypool | WR | CHI | 204.6 | 5.8 |
| 9 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 125.4 | 4.8 |
| 10 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 83.3 | 4.5 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/31/2023-08/08/23***
This week the top ten risers are littered with rookies as we see five players out of the ten as first-year players. Jalin Hyatt is the biggest riser, as he is up nearly two full rounds at ADP. Marvin Mims is up over a round after the Tim Patrick news, as he now looks locked in as a top-three wide receiver in Denver. Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid are the rookie tight ends that saw a rise this week, and the last rookie on the list is Zay Flowers, who continues to have buzz associated with his name all offseason.
The hype continues for Justyn Ross at Chiefs camp as he is up a whole other round at ADP. The Chiefs wide receiver room is wide open right now with lots of names, so the rise of Ross' ADP feels more like a late-round stab at trying to find someone who might have a shot at breaking out at a value. The only problem with Ross is that although the reviews are positive so far, the wide receiver room is crowded in Kansas City, and we still don't know how secure his role is. In Best Ball, it is a risk as you have to really make every draft pick count, as there is no waiver wire to pick up a player replacement if your player doesn't make the team.
Gus Edwards finds his way into being a top-four riser as he continues to stay healthy, whereas J.K. Dobbins has not been on the field practicing. Hunter Henry is starting to see a bump as Mike Gesicki sees a bump the other way as the two are leveling out at ADP. The last two names on this week's top ten are Chase Claypool and Jake Ferguson, who both look like they will have full-time roles on their teams and are late picks right now in best ball. Sometimes it is all about finding players that are locked in as starters in the later rounds, and that is what you are getting with Claypool and Ferguson.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 8 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | NE | 202.9 | 18.1 |
| 2 | Ty Chandler | RB | MIN | 209.4 | 8.7 |
| 3 | Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | 95.0 | 8.5 |
| 4 | Mike Gesicki | TE | NE | 194.7 | 6.7 |
| 5 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 185.6 | 6.4 |
| 6 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | BAL | 68.4 | 6.2 |
| 7 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 204.6 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TEN | 143.1 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 154.1 | 4.7 |
| 10 | Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI | 155.8 | 4.4 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/31/2023-08/08/23***
Tyquan Thornton is a major faller this week, as he is down nearly two rounds based on negative reviews at camp. It is early in camp still, so I can see his ADP also flipping back the other way with any signs of positive news or highlights. Kadarius Toney, J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray, and Trey McBride look to be on the fallers list this week more due to not being on the field and healthy, so drafters are backing off for now in a wait-and-see approach with them.
Ty Chandler, much like Thornton, is falling more on negative reviews. It might take Chandler a positive highlight or two in the preseason to start to flip his ADP the other way. There are four tight ends on this list - Mike Gesicki, Juwan Johnson, Trey McBride, and Chigoziem Okonkwo - and they are all names that I want to be drafting as part of my tight end portfolio. Drafters are becoming sharper, and finding tight end values seems to be one of the edges right now later in drafts. All four of these names look to be in a good spot with their teams, and if you can draft them as part of a three-man tight end room in Best Ball, it gives you a lot of leverage at the other positions because you have to spend a lot less at the tight end position.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- RB Damien Harris BUF - James Cook is seeing most of the reps so far in camp
- WR Kadarius Toney KC - Expected to play in Week 1
- WR K.J. Osborn MIN - Listed as WR2 on the Vikings depth chart
- WR Rashid Shaheed NO - Likely to miss the entire preseason, but no concerns for Week 1
- QB Teddy Bridgewater DET - Bridgewater will now be the backup for Jared Goff
- RB Isiah Pacheco KC - Expected to be ready for Week 1
- RB Jerome Ford CLE - Dealing with a hamstring injury
- RB De'Von Achane MIA - Day-to-day with injury
- RB Alvin Kamara NO - Suspended for 3 games
- RB Marlon Mack ARI - Signs on with the Cardinals
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 399,000/677,376 (58.9%) full currently, with 50,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 42.3% full with 110,000/261,000 entries, with 20,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 22,800/111,252 full, with 4,600 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 38,300/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 5,000 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 584,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 78,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!