Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 31 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richie James | WR | KC | 193.2 | 17.9 |
| 2 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 198.8 | 16.2 |
| 3 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 185.4 | 10.4 |
| 4 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 139.0 | 7.3 |
| 5 | Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 83.7 | 5.4 |
| 6 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | FA | 172.5 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | LV | 206.9 | 4.7 |
| 8 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 158.1 | 4.5 |
| 9 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 168.4 | 4.1 |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 17.1 | 3.8 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/24/2023-07/31/23***
This week the news of Kadarius Toney's injury is hitting hard at the top of the risers section as we see three Chiefs wide receivers in Richie James, Justyn Ross, and Rashee Rice, all in the top four of the risers. The biggest surprise to me is that Marquez Valdes-Scantling did not make the top ten list this week. In my personal rankings, I would have him as the biggest riser when it comes to Toney's injury news.
We see four running backs on the list this week:
- Zamir White is getting an uptick with the Josh Jacobs news.
- Javonte Williams with his good health news.
- Ezekiel Elliott with his visit to the Patriots.
- Saquon Barkley with his new one-year contract and ending his holdout.
The other names are with Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam LaPorta, but I don't really see any news that would shift their ADPs higher other than Garopppolo being ready to play and LaPorta being listed at TE1. The last name on the list is Brock Purdy, who has made a quick recovery from surgery and is back at practice and looking healthy to start the season.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 31 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | 86.2 | 14.1 |
| 2 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | 213.0 | 9.6 |
| 3 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | NE | 183.9 | 6.9 |
| 4 | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | 165.3 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 201.9 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Hunter Renfrow | WR | LV | 192.7 | 4.7 |
| 7 | Terrace Marshall Jr | WR | CAR | 211.7 | 4.4 |
| 8 | Jayden Reed | WR | GB | 175.0 | 4.1 |
| 9 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 178.5 | 4.0 |
| 10 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 34.3 | 4.0 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/24/2023-07/31/23***
The fallers list is always the fun one that I like to look at to see if there are any outliers on players that I think have good value and maybe that I want to bump up their rankings to make sure I see them on my board while I am drafting. Marvin Mims Jr. is the obvious one here, as the Tim Patrick injury news is new, so Mims will likely be the biggest riser next week. I do like the wide receiver names of Tyquan Thornton, Terrace Marshall, and Jayden Reed as they are all younger players and have some unknown to them but also are in good situations where they could emerge for their teams and be favorite targets for their quarterbacks.
Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson are obvious fallers, as they both deal with injuries and are lacking in any positive news. Breece Hall is finally starting to dip as his injury is a longer recovery than a lot of people were predicting, and I can see him turning more into a late-4th or early-5th-round pick in the next week or so. Juwan Johnson's fall is based on a news blurb saying the Saints have a crowded tight end room. I am not buying into that as a scare tactic and still think he is an excellent late-round tight end to target.
Chase Brown remains a slight faller at ADP as Joe Mixon now looks locked in at the running back position for the Bengals. Brown is a nice late-round add still if you are looking at having five or six backs in your room, as he might be the next man up behind Mixon. The last name on the list is not a flashy one in Hunter Renfrow, but he is a productive one in years past. He is still in my player pool despite the constant rumors that the Raiders are looking to ship him out. I see him as a player that will have a role with the Raiders, but if he does get traded, he will also have a role with his new team. I like him as my WR7 or WR8 to help build out my best ball teams.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- WR Tim Patrick DEN - Diagnosed with torn Achilles
- RB Ronald Jones II DAL - Suspended for two games
- RB Zack Moss IND - Diagnosed with a broken arm, expected to miss around 6 weeks.
- QB Brock Purdy SF - Fully participating with the starters
- WR Marvin Jones DET - Comes off the NFI list
- RB Jonathan Taylor IND - Drama in Indy with Taylor and owner Jim Irsay over Taylor's contract. Both sides refusing to budge at this point.
- RB Zach Charbonnet SEA - He is dealing with a shoulder injury that could keep him out a while.
- RB Kenneth Walker SEA - Dealing with a groin injury that has him sidelined.
- RB Dalvin Cook - Visited the Jets, but no deal has been done yet.
- TE Noah Fant SEA - Passes physical and is off the PUP list.
- RB Sony Michel - Announces retirement.
- WR John Metchie HOU - Good sign as Metchie has been practicing after missing all of his rookie season.
- QB Joe Burrow CIN - Diagnosed with a calf strain and will miss some time at training camp.
- QB Bryce Young CAR - Named the number 1 QB in Carolina.
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 349,000/677,376 (51.5%) full currently, with 47,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 34.6% full with 90,000/261,000 entries, with 20,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 18,200/111,252 full, with 3,100 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 33,300/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 4,300 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 516,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 55,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!