Reading the Defense, Week 17

The holiday season, after fantasy football's regular season has concluded in most leagues, offers the opportunity to reflect on player results to date and implications for line-ups. Reading the Defense will review linebackers this week, followed by defensive backs to close out the column for 2023.

Overview: Linebackers

Many IDP fantasy football analysts, including this writer, warned of increased scarcity at the linebacker position with a broadening embrace of true-position designations. Fantasy football platforms are beginning to change position designations of players like T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons from LB to DE to group them with Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby. All four players' "true position" involves a defensive edge alignment and a primary responsibility to rush the passer. Writers expected this real decline in impact players available at the position would translate to hardship in setting weekly line-ups.

This hardship was generally unrealized in 2023. Player health has been an important reason. Twenty-eight linebackers have averaged at least 11 fantasy points per game through the first 16 weeks of the season. All 28 have played at least 11 of a possible 15 games. All 28, a full complement of LB1s and LB2s for fantasy gamers in 14-team leagues, have recorded at least 90 combined tackles.

The 2023 Buffalo Bills illustrate the importance of durability to fantasy gamers. Opening-day starter Matt Milano, an LB2 in 2022, was lost to injury in Week 5. Tyrel Dodson and Dorian Williams shared Milano's duties thereafter, rendering each relatively useless to fantasy gamers.

Volume

At no position is volume more important than linebacker. Of the aforementioned 28 linebackers leading the league in fantasy points per game, each ranks within the top 38 linebackers in total defensive snaps. These include three players who have lost four full games to injuries. Just two linebackers outside the top 28 are on pace for 1,000 snaps this season: Kenneth Murray Jr. and Kaden Elliss average 10.8 and 10.3 points per game, respectively.

Fantasy gamers again in 2023 underinvested in full-time linebackers who lack name recognition. Ernest Jones IV and Kyzir White emerged in the spring not only as full-time options but also as linebackers expected to man the middle of defenses, frequently deploying six defensive backs. Robert Spillane, Quay Walker, and Cody Barton all appeared in preseason games, with first-teamers wearing the green dot. Representing play-calling responsibility for the defense, the green dot is a strong albeit not certain indication that a defender will play full-time.

Now that's a Bobby Wagner sack. Let's go #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/7OlXdO3cbd

— 𝚂𝚒 𝚆𝚊𝚌𝚑𝚒𝚛𝚊 (@uid_max) December 24, 2023

Tackles

Three players have already recorded 150 combined tackles. All three have established track records of abnormally high efficiency, measured in tackles per snap. Foyesade Oluokun and Zaire Franklin appear near the top of linebackers' fantasy standings, as expected following high-output 2022 campaigns. Alex Singleton assumed a full-time role early in the season when Josey Jewell suffered a minor injury. Singleton never relinquished the green dot, maintained high tackle efficiency, and proved a good value for drafters who targeted him as an LB2/3

"The best player you've never heard of."

How Foye Oluokun went from long-shot to rising star, and heart of the @jaguars defense #NFLFilmsPresents @foyelicious pic.twitter.com/asN0dta0RT

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 19, 2023

Big Plays

The big-name linebackers that fantasy drafters target early are often good players on good defenses. These linebackers make plays and benefit from plays made around them. Fred Warner leads all off-ball linebackers in passes defensed (11), interceptions (co-leader at 4), and forced fumbles (co-leader at 4). His 49ers routinely play downhill and put ample pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Demario Davis leads off-ball linebackers with 6.5 quarterback sacks, fueling his LB2 pace. He has long been an inefficient tackler for New Orleans defenses that heavily utilize man coverage; meanwhile, he is one of the NFL's most productive A-gap blitzers.

The Giants signed Bobby Okereke away from the zone-heavy Colts. He has thrived in the Giants' man-heavy, blitzing defenses with 9 passes defensed and 6 forced turnovers to propel an LB1 pace through 15 games.

Buffalo's Terrel Bernard has been the position's biggest revelation in 2023. The Bills' 3rd-round pick of 2022 succeeded unrestricted free agent Tremaine Edmunds, who departed for a lucrative deal from the Bears. Bernard wasn't even named a starter until September, yet he's on pace to finish as an LB1 for fantasy gamers with numbers Edmunds never posted in 5 years.

Good work from Tim Settle inside fighting through the double team & working down the line. Also a nice job from Terrel Bernard scraping & Taron Johnson boxing the run in. All 3 players converge on the ball to make the stop#Bills #BillsMafia #GoBills

pic.twitter.com/Mprz9F7Byt

— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) December 27, 2023

In Conclusion

The relative good health of starting linebackers provided IDP gamers with reliable production. Outside of injuries to Nick Bolton, Nakobe Dean, and Matt Milano, the position recorded very few fantasy draft busts. Two busts, however, were monumental. Devin White and Shaquille Leonard, two former number-one finishers at the position, fell far short of expectations. Leonard was cut, and White will almost certainly seek a new home next spring.

These disappointments represent a risk in the position. Each year, early draft targets like Blake Martinez, Jaylon Smith, and Joe Schobert implode. Fit matters in changing and evolving defensive schemes, and organizations' patience with this more replaceable position can be short. Talent and good health keep a linebacker on the field, and that presence on the field is the foundation of fantasy value.

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but also why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.