Prop Talk Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 12 Recap- 2-3

We are sputtering towards the finish line as we have not had a positive week in a few weeks.

C.J Stroud Under 268.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Baker Mayfield Under 222.5 Passing Yards- Win
Drake London Over 44.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
Brandon Aiyuk Over 63.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
Breece Hall Under 53.5 Rushing Yards- Win

Week 13 Props

Breece Hall Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

Many expected Breece Hall to leap into the upper echelon of running backs after Breece Hall dominated Denver’s defense rushing for 177 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos back in Week 5. The problem is that this upside is still baked into the overall number, but the player’s role is significantly different compared to what it was back in Week 5. Hall is clearly less than 100% healthy as he is dealing with an ankle injury that kept him limited in practice for most of the week, but there are likely other unreported issues going on as he’s struggled mightily for over a month. Hall has failed to top 50 yards in his last six games and failed to top 30 yards in five of his last six. The way to beat Houston is threw the air, which Hall has exceeded as a receiver, but they boast one of the league’s best run defenses allowing just 3.4 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs which for Hall who has not had more than 13 carries over his last four games would need to break a long run for this 44.5 to be realized.

Joe Flacco Over 206.5 Passing Yards

This number did not adjust much after last week when Joe Flacco threw for 254 yards in his first game having been with the team less than two weeks. Expect improvement now that he is in his second full week with the team and third week overall. This is an offense that has weapons for Flacco to throw to as Amari Cooper has cleared concussion protocol and should be good to go this week, Elijah Moore who was Flacco’s favorite target when Cooper went out as he had 12 targets, and David Njoku at the tight end position continues to be a reliable option. The Jaguars allowed 354 yards against the Bengals and have now allowed every team to throw for over 206.5 yards except for Desmond Ridder and Will Levis. Flacco has more weapons and is a better quarterback than both of those players and should easily be able to top this number this week.

Gardner Minshew Over 230.5 Passing Yards

Gardner Minshew looked great last week against Tennessee as he threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns. Minshew has now topped 250 yards in each of the last two games as the team has thrown the ball 41 and 42 times in those games largely due to the injury of Jonathan Taylor. Cincinnati’s pass defense has been horrendous as of late as they’ve allowed 250 passing yards or more in each of their last seven games as they have some severe holes in their secondary as some of their young players are not turning out as well as they had hoped, while also dealing with some injuries in the secondary.