With NFL training camps opening and legitimate player news awakening from its post-NFL Draft slumber, the running back optimization journey begins in earnest for fantasy and dynasty leagues. Backup running backs who find their way into a starting job can win weeks and also leagues if infused into fantasy lineups at the right time. Properly assessing the backup landscape, whether in July, August, or December, is the pathway to finding inexpensive auto-start players.
This initial weekly running back update will have an overarching preview of the position with future (leading up to Week 1) installments highlighting notable changes or adjustments.
Starter Injuries to Monitor
Javonte Williams avoided an initial PUP designation entering camp. This does not mean he will be active for Week 1 or seeing the RB1 workload for Denver's first game, but a promising sign compared to more negative potential vibes here in late July. The lynchpin news over the next month would be Denver making a notable signing from the free agent pool, where there is a bevy of veterans who can impinge upon Williams' workload and prognosis for Week 1 (and this season) like Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Ezekiel Elliott to name three. Denver might be in the market for a functional back to add either way, with a steep fall-off beyond Samaje Perine in the RB2 slot. Perine is a strong hold at Round 2 dynasty trade value as Perine would be a clarified starter with strong upside and likely a flip for more should Williams' runway to Week 1 go sidelines or see a cascading injury or setback.
Isiah Pacheco had multiple injuries this offseason and is a monitor player for his status heading towards Week 1. In addition to Jerick McKinnon returning to the depth chart in the offseason, Clyde Edwards-Helaire lingers on the depth chart and a (generally) forgotten Round 1 profile. Edwards-Helaire has more of a receiving profile than Pacheco, and McKinnon's nearly sole role at his peak powers in Kansas City has been in the passing game. Pacheco has empty-calorie 'lead' back potential where he sees the most touches in a given week, but sparse receiving work and a tempered fantasy ceiling. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the perfect add-on to bigger dynasty trades at a later Round 3 (or beyond) trade value equivalency for the year and stashing the pedigree beyond 2023.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a buy recommendation dating back to the NFL Draft.
J.K. Dobbins starts camp on the PUP list after his 2022 season was nothing but speed bumps in his return from a significant knee injury. Baltimore signed Melvin Gordon III recently to add to the camp roster with a contract worth up to $3.1 million. The issues with Dobbins go beyond his injury recovery and health status this August; it includes a Baltimore offense that has been one of the worst HLO (High-Leverage Opportunity) score backfields in the NFL for years. Dobbins has been middling as a receiver, and Lamar Jackson has largely been a running back detractor for fantasy more than an optimizer. Gordon is tough to roster in leagues with fewer than 30 roster spots, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill already incumbents behind Dobbins, and even the starter may not be a top 15 fantasy option at the position given their anemic HLO.
Breece Hall begins camp on the PUP list following a significant knee injury to end his rookie year mid-season. The Jets have a deep running back room with Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and rookie Israel Abanikanda, so they may not add a back if Hall is trending toward missing the start of the season. However, rumblings of Dalvin Cook plus Aaron Rodgers' addition pointing towards sky-high expectations align with Cook as an option. Abanikanda has an argument as the best non-Hall back on the roster with his prospect profile and with Knight being more of a grinder profile last year and Carter fading in appeal the longer he goes in the NFL, all three are viable stashes for now unless the Jets bring in a notable veteran. This is also a depth chart ripe to have an overt drop recommendation (or two) in the coming weeks if Hall is healthy or clarity is affirmed on the pecking order of RB2-3-4.
Footballguys Jordan McNamara outlines Javonte Williams and Breece Hall as overvalued in dynasty compared to their redraft valuation.
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