The New Reality No.215: Early 2024 NFL Draft Prospects

Photo: USA Today Sports

With the fantasy football season complete and the NFL shifting firmly to playoff mode, dynasty teams shift to 2024 NFL Draft mode with rookie drafts in a few months as the next critical item on the to-do list. Here is an early look at the analytics of the 2024 class across the skill positions:

*Data included reference the author's projection model, designed to improve the probability of predicting skill position prospects to produce fantasy starter seasons in the NFL*

*With the declaration deadline not until mid-January, some of the non-senior prospects mentioned here may end up returning to school*

QUARTERBACKS

• Caleb Williams, USC
• Drake Maye, North Carolina

Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are considered the consensus top two quarterbacks entering January. Williams has strong Vegas odds to be the 1.01 selection, but their respective profiles point to a much closer vote and decision. Maye has a 99% PASS score in my model, along with a 67% RUSH score. Williams has a 74% PASS score and 32% RUSH score. Both check the significant passing boxes to be worthy of the 1.01 NFL Draft selection historically with Maye the more rare metric prospect.

• Jayden Daniels, LSU
• J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
• Michael Penix Jr., Washington

The most Round 1 chatter beyond Williams and Maye revolve around Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr. entering the draft prospect. Daniels has the strongest dual-threat profile of the entire class with 93% PASS and 97% RUSH scores. Daniels' two questionable areas are his more slender build and his worrisome pressure-to-sack rate, which is on par with Will Levis and Sam Howell in recent classes. McCarthy is well-rounded with scores of 85% and 54% (Pass-Rush) and checking all the boxes, even if not at an elite level. Penix Jr. is one of the most interesting prospects of the class. For one, he is lefty, which is a unicorn among recent strong quarterback prospects. Also, Penix's profile is slanted heavily towards the pass with 96% and 33% scores. Within that 33% RUSH score is a 2% scramble rate, which points to a very low ceiling and floor as a rushing option in the NFL and for fantasy purposes. Penix Jr. will have to be a diabolically good passer to be a quality fantasy option, but his passing profile points in that direction.

• Bo Nix, Oregon
• Quinn Ewers, Texas
• Jordan Travis, Florida State

The remaining wildcards of the class (potentially) include Bo Nix, Quinn Ewers, and Jordan Travis. Nix is the oldest of the notable prospects in the class (24.6 years old for Week 1) and adds a strong RUSH score (80%). Nix projects as an up-and-down passer and a boom-bust prospect with Round 1 possibilities. Ewers was a lauded recruit entering Texas but has been a rollercoaster ride compared to expectations. Ewers, like Penix Jr., does not project as a quality rushing option in the NFL with a 30% RUSH score. Jordan Travis has an intriguing 94% RUSH score and a good enough 63% PASS score. Travis, as well as Ewers, is one of the smaller-frame quarterbacks in the potential class.

RUNNING BACKS

This year's class pales in comparison to 2023. There is not a projected Round 1 prospect and a running back drafted in the top-50 might be a challenge.

• TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

TreVeyon Henderson is the best bet to be drafted in Round 2 (or higher), but Henderson is a question mark to declare for the draft. The Ohio State product has prototypical size and the best combination of RUSH (89%) and REC (78%) scores to be a three-down foundational back upside in the NFL.

• Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
• Blake Corum, Michigan
• Trey Benson, Florida State
• Donovan Edwards, Michigan

Braelon Allen is the latest supersized back with quality feet and a good enough receiving profile (63%). The question will be Allen's burst and overall athleticism to not fall into the 'big but not athletic enough' subset. Blake Corum passed on the NFL Draft in 2023 and returned to Michigan. Now 23.8 years old for the draft, Corum has unspectacular 61% RUSH and 48% REC scores. His thick and compact frame combined with his quality athleticism (projected) are plus traits. Trey Benson is one of the elite after-contact and big-play threats of the class. Benson has a wide early range of projected draft position from Day 2 to mid-Day 3. Donovan Edwards is the strongest receiving profile in the class, with shades of D'Andre Swift to his game. At around 200-210 pounds and a 94% REC score, Edwards has a unique profile for NFL teams seeking a Kenneth Gainwell+ type player.

• Audric Estime, Notre Dame
• Will Shipley, Clemson
• Bucky Irving, Oregon
• Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
• MarShawn Lloyd, USC
• Jase McClellan, Alabama
• Frank Gore Jr., Southern Mississippi

Half of this subset could return to school as NIL factors combined with a prospect getting a Day 3 grade from the Advisory Board can push marginal prospects into the 2025 class. Audric Estime is 225+ pounds with at least a passable 45% REC score to point to potential three-down usage. Will Shipley was viewed as a poor man's Christian McCaffrey when entering Clemson. Since, Shipley has devolved into a likely Day 3 prospect who lacked any of the McCaffrey upside over his three years at Clemson to date. Bucky Irving is a quick-twitch back with one of the better receiving profiles (79%) in the class. Frank Gore, Jr. will be one of the discussed prospects of the class as the son of Frank Gore, the former 49ers running back. Gore Jr. is a strong two-way production (72% RUSH, 77% REC). While sub-sized at 195 pounds (listed), smaller running backs are making a comeback in the NFL, and Gore could be more appealing in the mold of Kyren Williams of recent import.

WIDE RECEIVERS

As opposed to the running back position for 2024, the wide receiver class is loaded for this coming NFL Draft class. Early projections have at least five receivers with Round 1 projections, if not more, and multiple are earmarked for top 10 overall consideration. Expect to see quarterbacks and wide receivers dominating Round 1 NFL Draft (and dynasty draft) discussion this year.

• Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Harrison is considered the consensus WR1 of the class. For NFL teams not needing a quarterback high in Round 1, Harrison will be a consideration. Amari Cooper in 2015 is the last receiver to be drafted higher than No.5 overall, and Harrison has a strong possibility to be drafted even higher. Harrison's 87% Production Score is higher than every receiver in the projected class outside of Xavier Worthy. This, with prototypical size and movement, Harrison checks all the applicable boxes.

• Malik Nabers, LSU
• Rome Odunze, Washington

Beyond Harrison, the two early favorites to be WR2 and WR3 of the class are Nabers and Odunze. Nabers is a great blend of playing in the slot and outside, plus an elite tackle-breaking and after-the-catch option. Odunze is the opposite, more of a perimeter option and catch-point player. Both have 90% of higher overall scores in the model.

• Troy Franklin, Oregon
• Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Devontez Walker, North Carolina
• Keon Coleman, Florida State
• Xavier Legette, South Carolina
• Xavier Worthy, Texas
• Jermaine Burton, Georgia
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Adonai Mitchell, Texas

The fact that all of these receivers are in consideration for the first two rounds of the draft speaks to the depth of the position. At 6-foot-3 with significant long speed, Franklin has the physical tools in addition to a 90% overall score. Egbuka was primarily a slot receiver with high efficiency, plus could be the best measured athleticism score of the notable receivers. Legette will be a polarizing prospect, appealing to the size-athleticism crowd but also a generally unproductive player until 2023 as a redshirt senior. Worthy is undersized (180 pounds at best) but easily the highest Production Score and Overall Score in the class at 95%.

TIGHT ENDS

Last year's class featured six tight ends drafted in the first two rounds, plus Tucker Kraft, Will Mallory, Payne Durham, and Davis Allen flashing as rookies from Round 3 and beyond. The 2024 class projects to be far more shallow by comparison but with an elite prospect at the top.

• Brock Bowers, Georgia

Brock Bowers is sub-sized from a prototypical tight end prospect but sports an 88% projected ATH score and 99% REC score. Bowers, like Kyle Pitts in 2021, is viewed as one of the best overall prospects in the class regardless of position and is likely to go in the top 10 of Round 1.

• Ja'Tavion Sanders, Texas
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Theo Johnson, Penn State
• Benjamin Yurosek, Stanford
• Cade Stover, Ohio State
• Jaheim Bell, Florida State

After Bowers, there are no locks to be drafted by the end of Round 2. Sanders is ideally young at 21.5 years old and a potential 80%-80% prospect (pending measured athleticism) as an athlete and producer. Nesbit has ideal size with a strong catching radius to stretch the seam in the NFL. Johnson is an elite athlete in the lineage of Penn State tight ends, but has sparsely produced over four years (29%). Stover is a similar story as a projection with his athleticism compared to his lagging production. Benjamin Yurosek is more of a high-floor prospect with an 81% PROD score and likely

FINAL THOUGHTS

Thanks to all the readers of this feature column in 2023 (and over the years). If you would like to keep up with my content during the NFL Draft season, I host the Under the Helmet Dynasty Show (650+ weekly episodes dating back to 2011) and produce the content (written and hundreds of premium podcasts) at UTHDynasty.com and the associated Patreon platform. NFL Draft season is the lifeblood of dynasty leagues with a year-round approach to dynasty trading, evaluating prospects, positioning in rookie drafts, team-building in startup drafts, and valuation shifts with NFL free agency and the NFL Draft. I will close this season's New Reality series with the tagline I use on my podcasts: Never Settle, Refuse to be Average, and Keep Building Those Dynasties.

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