The 2024 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the running backs potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status.
Last year and in general with the biggest names in free agency, most returned to their incumbent team. Running backs in 2024 are a different animal. The sheer talent level and depth of the outright free agents point to a chaotic level of potential player movement at the critical fantasy position based on opportunity.
RUNNING BACKS
TIER 1
Saquon Barkley headlines the free agent class with his 27-year-old season upcoming and a perennial top-10 fantasy option outside of two injury-marred seasons. Barkley has yet to be paired with a strong offense or quarterback, a piece of allure for Barkley to change teams in the offseason. Josh Jacobs is the youngest of the quartet and a classic foundation back who has played through injury and absorbed strong volume in recent years.
Austin Ekeler will be 29 years old in 2024 and on a five-year run of top-12 production. Ekeler is one of the premiere two-way backs in the NFL and, like Christian McCaffrey, would tilt any offense to utilize his pass-catching talents. Derrick Henry is having a down year in 2023 compared to his previous four-year run of elite production. Hitting 30 years old as an old-school power back likely continues his downward trajectory. Plus, will his next team feature him as much as Tennessee did for years without a strong quarterback?
TIER 2
Tony Pollard just misses Tier 1 status for two reasons. First, Pollard will be older than most would assume at 27 in 2024. Second, Pollard has underwhelmed this season with a clear workhorse opportunity in his first season without Ezekiel Elliott on the depth chart. D'Andre Swift was a tough-to-trust feature back until being one of the fantasy surprises in 2023 after being traded (for dirt cheap) to the Eagles. Antonio Gibson fits the profile of an under-the-radar mid-career value after multiple seasons as an NFL starter with two-way ability. Gus Edwards is a perfect fit in Baltimore, but the Ravens have been one of the weakest HLO (high-leverage opportunity) offenses in the NFL for years.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes Tier 2 with his Round 1 pedigree alone, and generally, an outcome like Sony Michel is a worst-case scenario, who was still relevant for multiple teams. Edwards-Helaire does have a top-24 finish under his belt, albeit years ago as a rookie. Zack Moss was nearly out of the NFL before finding the right confluence of factors in Indianapolis (Jonathan Taylor's holdout, Evan Hull's injury, Deon Jackson being lackluster) to thrive as a foundation back early this season. Moss will have more NFL opportunities in 2024, and deservedly so.
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BEST OF THE REST
- J.K. Dobbins
- AJ Dillon
- Kareem Hunt
- D'Onta Foreman
- Devin Singletary
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Rico Dowdle
- Latavius Murray
- Rashaad Penny
- Damien Harris
- D'Ernest Johnson
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Joshua Kelley
- Dalvin Cook
- Boston Scott
J.K. Dobbins has the most perfect-storm upside of this giant amalgam of viable running backs. Dobbins' career theme has been injuries, playing in just 24 of a possible 66 career games. At 25 years old for next season, Dobbins has as many questions as proponents of his talent. A.J. Dillon has seeped dynasty value this season more than solidified his status with lackluster performances and a plodding style in games with Aaron Jones. Likely at least half of this tier will end up on the waiver wire floor by rookie draft time in the offseason and left out of the free agency signings before the NFL Draft.
POTENTIAL CUTS-RESTRUCTURES
Aaron Jones' cap hit balloons to more than $17 million for Green Bay in 2024, but they would save only $5 million if they moved on from the soon-to-be 29-year-old running back. His string of injuries this season does not help his case for returning to the team at his present number for 2024.
Joe Mixon has a cap hit of $8.5 million next year but would save close to $6 million by moving on from the older Mixon. With Tee Higgins' contract decision coming due and Joe Burrow already paid, Mixon could be on the block with a glut of cheaper veteran running backs on the NFL landscape in the offseason.
POTENTIAL INCUMBENT BENEFACTORS
- Keaton Mitchell: Moving past Justice Hill on the depth chart, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are free agents.
- Tyjae Spears: Derrick Henry being a free agent will shoot Spears' value to the moon early in the offseason on the prospect of being the Week 1 starter alone.
- Zamir White: A tepid boost for White with Josh Jacobs a slated free agent. White has yet to be more than a situational early-down option or silence Ameer Abdullah's dominance in the passing game.
- Chase Brown: Set to return from injury soon, Brown can challenge for the RB2 role by season's end (currently Trayveon Williams), and Joe Mixon is a cut-restructure candidate in the offseason.
- Isaiah Spiller: Early Day 3 pedigree with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley both free agents.
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Antonio Gibson is a free agent, and Rodriguez has flashed as a Day 3 rookie.
- Evan Hull: Rookie season was derailed by injury, but had the inside track to be RB2 otherwise. With Zack Moss a free agent, Hull is the early favorite to be the Jonathan Taylor injury-away option in 2024.
Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.