Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 44
- Spread: 49ers -7
- 49ers Implied Team Total: 25.5
- Vikings Implied Team Total: 18.5
The 49ers are clear favorites in this matchup despite being on the road. The way to play this one is to start by trying to predict the correct 49ers pieces and then running it back with Minnesota passing options.
Injury Roundup
- Christian McCaffrey Questionable but reportedly will play, per Adam Schefter
- Justin Jefferson OUT
- Deebo Samuel OUT
Captain Consideration:
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy - Captain/Flex
Brock Purdy leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and Dropback EPA. He ranks ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). One down performance last week shouldn't cause you to forget about Purdy. He has the more favorable matchup between the two quarterbacks in this one against a Vikings defense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play Allowed and 11th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker
Brandon Aiyuk - Captain/Flex
Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets (37), receptions (25), and receiving yards (454). Without Deebo Samuel in this one due to injury, Aiyuk is a no-brainer play and the #1 Captain choice.
Christian McCaffrey - Captain/Flex
Christian McCaffrey is listed as questionable, but Adam Schefter reported this on Sunday morning:
All signs point to 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey playing Monday night at Minnesota, despite the fact that he is listed as questionable due to an oblique injury, per sources. McCaffrey returned to practice in a limited way Saturday and said after that he feels “great.”
Even a limited McCaffrey is a smash play. He ranks fourth in both opportunities per game (22.8) and total yards per game (121.7).
George Kittle - Flex
George Kittle is more of an up-and-down player, but we should lean into his upside scenarios in Showdown tournaments, especially with his target projection increasing due to Deebo Samuel being out of the lineup.
Elijah Mitchell - Flex
Christian McCaffrey is a smash play, but he's likely to cede at least some of the work to another running back this week due to his injury status. That comes down to Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason. It was reported earlier in the week that Kyle Shanahan played Mason over Mitchell last week due to Mitchell's lack of practice due to recovering from his own injury. This week, expect Mitchell to get run over Mason. Mitchell is a sneaky tournament play against a Vikings defense that only ranks 15th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Ray-Ray McCloud III - Flex
Deebo Samuel was injured early in the game last week, and Ray-Ray McCloud III ended up playing on 71% of the offensive snaps, by far a season high. McCloud is not even close to the same player as Samuel, but he can handle some of the end-around and jet-sweep action Kyle Shanahan likes to put in the playbook. That helps make him a very fun and sneaky tournament play.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins - Flex
Kirk Cousins has a tough matchup against a strong 49ers defense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play Allowed and second in Dropback EPA Allowed. He'll face the 49ers without Justin Jefferson. Recommendation: Fade.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker
Jordan Addison - Captain/Flex
In the first game without Justin Jefferson last week, Jordan Addison played on 86% of the offensive snaps and tied for the team lead in routes run (33). Addison is the Vikings' new WR1. He was a really strong collegiate prospect. Here's what I wrote about Addison back in March:
Addison is Mr. Reliable. He can do everything. In his two seasons at Pittsburgh and his junior year at USC, Addison was deployed all over the field. He offers versatility and is a very good route runner. As a true freshman, Addison impressively caught 60 passes for 666 yards and 4 touchdowns. He followed that up with a dominating sophomore campaign in which he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. Addison then transferred to USC, and while his junior season wasn't as impressive statistically, he was still featured heavily in the Trojans' offense. Addison is a polished player ready to seamlessly transition to an NFL offense and strikes me as a player that offers both a high floor and a high ceiling. Addison should be a PPR cheat code.
T.J. Hockenson - Flex
T.J. Hockenson ranks tied for first at the tight end position in targets (46) and receptions (36). He's a solid runback passing option on the Vikings, but it is important to note San Francisco's defense has elite linebackers that can cover over the middle of the field. The 49ers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (5.8) to the tight end position so far on the season.
Alexander Mattison - Flex
Cam Akers appeared to be eating into Alexander Mattison's playing time, but that wasn't the case last week. Mattison played on 79% of the offensive snaps and saw 25 opportunities compared to Akers' two chances. The 49ers defense only ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed, and Mattison can also count as a Vikings passing option runback. He saw seven targets last week, and head coach Kevin O'Connell likes to throw him screen passes in the red zone.
K.J. Osborn - Flex
In the first game without Justin Jefferson last week, K.J. Osborn tied for the team lead in routes run (33). He's another solid runback passing option on the Vikings.