Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Spread: Cowboys -6
- Cowboys Implied Team Total: 29.8
- Lions Implied Team Total: 23.8
This going to be one hell of an island game! The Over/Under of 53.5 is by far the highest of the entire week and both dome teams are playing in just that, a dome. With no weather concerns and two of the best offenses in football going at it, no D/STs or kickers should be considered. Load up on skill player talent on both teams.
Injury Roundup
- Rico Dowdle OUT
Captain Consideration:
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback
Dak Prescott - Captain/Flex
Dak Prescott is in an incredible spot at home here against a Lions defense that only ranks 22nd in Dropback Expected Points Added (EPA) Allowed since Week 8. Prescott is in the Most Valuable Player discussion as he leads a Cowboys offense that ranks second in EPA/Play, second in Dropback EPA, fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and fourth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and he ranks tenth in passing yards per game (259.5) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2). The Cowboys have the second-highest Implied Team Total (29.8) of the week behind only the San Francisco 49ers.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
CeeDee Lamb - Captain/Flex
CeeDee Lamb is the #1 Captain choice in this favorable matchup and fantasy environment. Lamb ranks third in targets per route run (27%), sixth in target share (29%), sixth in targets per game (10.1), fourth in receptions per game (7.3), and fourth in receiving yards per game (94.9).
Tony Pollard - Flex
Rico Dowdle is out, which slides Deuce Vaughn into the RB2 spot. Dallas hasn't shown much confidence in Vaughn so Tony Pollard should once again be saddled with a large workload. Pollard ranks ninth in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.7) and the Cowboys are at home in a phenomenal fantasy environment. The Lions are a better defense against the run than the pass but do only rank 15th in EPA/Play Allowed overall since Week 8.
Jake Ferguson - Flex
Jake Ferguson has seen eight targets in four straight games. He's in an awesome spot here against a Lions defense that has allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (10.9) this season.
Brandin Cooks - Flex
Brandin Cooks has been quiet lately but this is the kind of favorable matchup and game environment that can carry along secondary and tertiary pieces. At the very least, he'll be running routes while Dak Prescott is slinging it. Here are Cooks' offensive snap percentages over his past six games: 72%, 80%, 90%, 77%, 74%, and 79%.
Deuce Vaughn - Flex
Rico Dowdle is out, which slides Deuce Vaughn into the RB2 spot. Dallas hasn't shown much confidence in Vaughn but they're now in a spot where they don't have much choice when Pollard needs a breather. Count me in as a believer in Vaughn's talent and he'll have a chance to show it on Saturday night with his limited touches. Here is what I wrote about Vaughn during prospect season:
Listed at only 5-foot-5 and 179 pounds, Vaughn is an extreme outlier. But man, can he play. As a dual threat, Vaughn put up 1,878 total yards and 22 total touchdowns as a sophomore and 1,936 total yards and 12 total touchdowns as a junior. He caught 116 passes in three collegiate seasons and is quick, dynamic, and compact.
Michael Gallup - Flex
Michael Gallup's role has been reduced. Here are his offensive snap percentages over his past four games: 46%, 49%, 51%, and 50%. Still, he's in play in large-field tournaments as a stack with Dak Prescott. Gallup went 3-48-1 on 5 targets just three weeks ago.
Jalen Tolbert - Flex
Jalen Tolbert is nipping at Michael Gallup's heels for the WR3 role. Here are his offensive snap percentages over his past four games: 36%, 45%, 49%, and 36%. Tolbert is in play in large-field tournaments as a stack with Dak Prescott after catching 2 passes for 51 yards last week.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff - Captain/Flex
Jared Goff has been awesome this season. He leads a Lions offense that ranks sixth in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and he ranks seventh in passing yards per game (265.6) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The Over/Under of 53.5 is by far the highest of the entire week and Goff has a matchup he can exploit against a surprisingly struggling Cowboys defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Captain/Flex
Amon-Ra St. Brown can be Jared Goff's best friend when Micah Parsons is closing in on him. A heavy workload wouldn't be anything new for St. Brown, who ranks third in targets per route run (27%), tenth in target share (28%), second in targets per game (10.4), second in receptions per game (7.6), and sixth in receiving yards per game (91.5). St. Brown is the #2 Captain choice behind only CeeDee Lamb in this favorable matchup and game environment.
Jahmyr Gibbs - Captain/Flex
Jahmyr Gibbs' elite talent and dual-threat ability have been on full display in one of the league's best offenses recently. Gibbs has scored five touchdowns in his past three games and now gets to face a Cowboys defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 8 in an explosive game environment with a 53.5 point Over/Under. This matchup sets up very well for Gibbs to find success on the ground, through the air, or both.
David Montgomery - Flex
With the world currently rightfully salivating over Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery is a solid tournament play. He ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.2) and has scored 11 touchdowns on the season. Dallas' defense has been better against the run than the pass lately as they rank 11th best in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8 but that doesn't project to matter much when Detroit's elite offensive line starts punching the Cowboys in the mouth.
Sam LaPorta - Flex
Sam LaPorta has been a monster all season long. Despite being a rookie, out of all tight ends, LaPorta still ranks fifth in targets (100), fifth in receptions (74), sixth in receiving yards (776), and first in touchdowns (9). LaPorta has scored three more touchdowns than any other tight end in the league and is a good bet to find pay dirt once again in this exploitable matchup and game environment.
Jameson Williams - Flex
Jameson Williams has seen 13 targets over his past two games, is playing in the game with by far the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week, and has a favorable matchup against a Cowboys defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Remember, Williams was selected 12th overall by the Lions just one year ago after setting the SEC ablaze in 2021 with 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. This is the kind of favorable fantasy environment that could help Williams produce a long catch and/or a touchdown or two.
Kalif Raymond - Flex
Like Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond is another player who could flip this Showdown slate on its head with one long catch and/or touchdown. Raymond ranks second, behind only Josh Reynolds, in yards per catch (13.4) on the Lions. Look for offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to scheme up a few big chances for Raymond in this game. Meanwhile, Reynolds is losing snaps while Williams is gaining them. Advantage Raymond over Reynolds when looking for a diamond in the rough on the Lions to help you take down a large field tournament.