Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites despite traveling to New York to take on a Jets team with new life now that they have Aaron Rodgers running the show at quarterback. The total is a healthy 46.5, which is a positive sign that Vegas expects both offenses to find success despite both teams arguably rostering top-half-of-the-league defenses. This is going to be a fun one to put a bow on Week 1 and could truly go either way. Both sides of this one are fully in play.
Captain Consideration:
New York Jets
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers - Captain/Flex
Aaron Rodgers arrives in New York at the perfect time, as the Jets offense was in dire straights while led by Zach Wilson. Last season wasn't pretty as the offense ranked 30th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), dead last in Success Rate, 19th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and 25th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Expect Rodgers to elevate all of these metrics, and despite a down season of his own while dealing with a thumb injury last year, he still ranked tenth in the league in touchdown passes per game (1.5). Rodgers gets to play at home against a Bills defense that showed signs of vulnerability last season, ranking 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 18th in Success Rate.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker Choices
Garrett Wilson - Captain/Flex
Garrett Wilson is a special player. He was an elite early declare prospect selected tenth overall by the Jets one year ago and immediately transitioned into an NFL superstar, catching 83 passes for 1,103 yards as a rookie playing with Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Wilson now has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, and unless Rodgers inexplicably locks in on his friend Allen Lazard, Wilson is primed to dominate targets in an offense with little receiving talent around him, at least until Breece Hall gets fully back up to speed.
Michael Carter - Flex
It's tough to find an edge in a one-game Showdown, so sometimes we have to get creative. Both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are working their way back from injuries. Hall tore his ACL last year, and Cook had shoulder surgery in the offseason. Head coach Robert Saleh has said the team is going to be "smart" with both backs. Michael Carter has practiced as the lead back for most of the offseason and should receive a decent amount of run in Week 1. Carter is a pass-catching back and can pay off at low ownership if he's able to catch a few passes from a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who historically has targeted the running back position in the passing game.
Allen Lazard - Flex
Allen Lazard is Aaron Rodgers' pal and is now the clear-cut WR2 after Corey Davis' retirement. Lazard is coming off his best season as a pro after catching 60 passes for 788 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2022. While defenses put most of their attention on trying to stop Garrett Wilson, Lazard is going to have some good games this year. Maybe he has one of them right out of the gate.
Tyler Conklin - Flex
Tyler Conklin caught 61 passes for 593 yards in 2021 as a Minnesota Viking and then caught 58 passes for 552 yards and 3 touchdowns last year in his first season with the Jets. Conklin has been consistent despite changing teams and now stands to benefit from the presence of Aaron Rodgers.
Jets D/ST - Flex
The Jets defense is loaded with talent, led by superstars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Betting on these superstars to do their thing makes sense in tournaments where the D/ST price is affordable, and their ownership is expected to come in low while facing Josh Allen as the underdog. This is a sneaky play with the Jets at home in this one.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen - Captain/Flex
Even with the offensive coordinator change last season, Josh Allen remained elite. The Bills offense ranked second in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), second in Success Rate, third in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Allen once again ran the show, and the production frequently amassed. Allen ranked second in touchdown passes per game (2.2) and eighth in passing yards per game (268). The Jets defense is certainly a tough test, but Allen has proven he's matchup proof, especially thanks to his elite rushing production. Allen ran for 763 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2021 and 762 yards and 7 touchdowns last season.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker Choices
Stefon Diggs - Captain/Flex
The offseason drama between Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills appears to be way in the rearview mirror. Diggs remains the engine of the Bills offense other than Josh Allen. He ranked seventh in targets per game (9.6), seventh in catches per game (6.8), and fourth in receiving yards per game (89.3) last year. And per Pro Football Focus, the Jets did not have Sauce Gardner shadow any receivers last year, so Diggs should have opportunities to produce against lesser talent when not lined up against Gardner.
James Cook - Flex
James Cook reportedly had a great offseason and played most of the snaps with the starting offense in the preseason. The dual-threat Cook appears primed to see a significant workload increase in his second season. That should begin right away, as this is the kind of matchup Cook should be utilized heavily in. Cook's speed should allow the Bills to run off tackle away from Quinnen Williams, and his receiving ability should allow for positive completions when the secondary, led by Sauce Gardner, clamps down on the outside. And surprisingly, the Jets defense only ranked 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed last season.
Gabe Davis - Flex
Per Pro Football Focus, the Jets did not have Sauce Gardner shadow any receivers last year, so Gabe Davis doesn't receive a significant bump. But when Gardner is on Diggs, expect Josh Allen to look Davis' way. Davis put up 836 yards and 7 touchdowns last season while dealing with a high ankle sprain and while Allen played through an elbow injury. There is room for Davis to hit a higher ceiling in 2023.
Deonte Harty - Flex
Deonte Harty was the Bills' starting slot receiver in 11 personnel all preseason after signing with the Bills quickly in free agency. Harty is a sneaky tournament play that allows for some differentiation. This is how we win.
Dalton Kincaid - Flex
Dalton Kincaid is in danger of partial playing time with Dawson Knox in the mix, but Kincaid is easily the superior talent. The Bills traded up for Kincaid in the first round of the draft and shouldn't waste any time releasing their shiny new toy to the public. Kincaid is a solid tournament play, as some of your competition still subscribe to the "Need to see it to believe it" philosophy. That's now how to win tournaments in DFS.