The Guru and the Godfather: Week 6

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John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

We’re five weeks in, and while there’s still a long way to go before the fantasy playoffs, things are coming into focus. We’re getting a better idea by the week of who is meeting our fantasy expectations in 2023. Who is smashing them? And who is just getting smashed?

Just as they do every week, the Guru and the Godfather have gathered again, this time to examine which IDP plays will lead fantasy managers to victory in Week 6, who will leave those same managers hanging, some sleepers set to jolt awake and even an early pick for the IDP MVP (and LVP—if that’s a thing) of the season so far.

This is a big week for many fantasy managers trying to keep their season from coming off the rails, so we’re diving right in here. Identify a defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back set to exceed expectations and do some real damage in Week 6.

GURU: Danielle Hunter of the Minnesota Vikings is an every-week must-start regardless of matchup, and batterymate Marcus Davenport has a sack in each of his two starts since returning from injury. Both could feast on a Bears offense that has allowed 20 sacks on the season and at least three in each game. Chicago is also giving up more than a turnover per game and over one batted pass to defensive linemen.

Last week, I called out Tennessee Titans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair on mostly a gut feeling. That worked out when he answered with 15 combined tackles. This week, he has possibly the best matchup in the game for linebackers. Through five games, eleven linebackers have reached double-digit points against the Ravens, including two from Cleveland and three from the Steelers. Those players have a combined average of 13.2 points per game.

I have grand expectations for Carolina Panthers safety Vonn Bell against the Dolphins. No team has been a better matchup for safeties in terms of tackles. Carolina’s leaky front seven should mean plenty of run-support opportunities. Safeties have plenty of big play potential against Miami as well, with the position accounting for four turnovers and seven passes defended to date.

GODFATHER: It’s happening without a ton of fanfare, but Montez Sweat of the Washington Commanders is having quite the start to the 2023 season—the fifth-year edge-rusher has tallied 1.5 sacks in three of five games and ranks ninth in fantasy points among defensive linemen. With a top-five fantasy matchup on tap for his position this week with the Atlanta Falcons, expect Sweat to have another big game. It’s almost as if he’s in a contract year or something.

Speaking of contract years, Kenneth Murray of the Los Angeles Chargers just so happens to be in one, too. Lo and behold, he’s also having easily the best season of his career, playing full-time and even usurping green dot duties from veteran Eric Kendricks. This week, Murray and the Bolts host a Dallas Cowboys team that leads the league in fantasy points surrendered to linebackers. Both players should be solid IDP starts.

So far this season, San Francisco 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga hasn’t been able to duplicate the statistical success he had last season—he’s 42nd in fantasy points among defensive backs to this point in the season. But this week, Hufanga gets a favorable fantasy matchup against a Cleveland Browns team all but certain to be playing from behind with a quarterback who hasn’t been on the team for two weeks. Hufanga has a nose for the football—he’ll get interception No. 2 of the season on Sunday.

Damage can be done the other way, of course. Which players at each of those same positions are in position to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

GURU: The last time we saw Cleveland Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett, he was limping around at the end of a game with a foot injury. He finished that game and has had two weeks to heal, so the foot may not be an issue. The 49ers, on the other hand, could be a big issue. Edge defenders tend to put up decent tackle totals against them, but sacks are hard to come by. San Francisco has allowed just five over the last four games and one in each of the last two. Unless you are loaded at the position, Garrett is a must-start with any matchup, but temper expectations in this one.

When we think of the Titans and Derrick Henry, most managers will naturally assume that the big man in a power-running game equals a great matchup for linebackers. The statistics say otherwise, though. Zaire Franklin and Demario Davis have put up good numbers against Tennessee. Logan Wilson, Pete Werner, and last week, E.J. Speed (who played full-time) have not, nor has anyone from the Browns or Chargers in those matchups. Roquan Smith or Patrick Queen of the Baltimore Ravens, and most likely Queen, could be looking at mediocre outings.

Jesse Bates of the Atlanta Falcons has been up and down through five games. The veteran safety has 13 or more fantasy points in three of them and six or fewer in the other two. A matchup with Washington could even things out at three good and three bad games. The opponent’s safety positions are averaging six solo stops and five assists per game. That includes all safeties, not just starters. Only Justin Simmons has more than four solo stops against them, and all the safeties playing against them have combined for one turnover and six passes defended.

GODFATHER: I like the Guru, so this Browns fan will just pretend he did not say anything to besmirch the good name of the chiseled block of awesome that is Myles Garrett.

Trey Hendrickson of the Cincinnati Bengals has always been something of a feast-or-famine IDP option, and five games into the 2023 campaign, he has feasted to the tune of half a dozen sacks. But all good things must come to an end—including hot streaks. The Seattle Seahawks have surrendered just seven sacks all season long and rank outside the top 20 in fantasy points allowed to defensive ends.

We’ll stay with Seattle’s trip to Cincinnati for a linebacker who could be set for a down Week 6. That Jordyn Brooks of the Seahawks was able to play in Week 1 at all after tearing his ACL so late in the 2022 season is remarkable. That he’s been able to post top-10 numbers in points per game doing so is nothing short of amazing. But Cincinnati’s struggling offense hasn’t been good to opposing linebackers this year, so Brooks and even (gasp) Bobby Wagner could be in for below-average games.

By most estimations, the Los Angeles Rams have exceeded the modest expectations for the team in 2023—at least early on. But what the Rams most assuredly have not done is allow fantasy points to opposing safeties—no team has given up fewer per game. K'Von Wallace of the Arizona Cardinals has been a nice waiver add this season, but he should be on IDP benches in Week 6.