John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.
We're nine weeks into the 2023 IDP campaign. Some teams are cruising. Some teams are losing. And some teams are hanging on by a thread.
As is the case every Friday, the Guru and the Godfather have come together yet again. This week, the duo considers ideal trade targets (to buy and sell), looks ahead to the best (and worst) IDP plays of Week 10, and offers up some love for managers in formats that require cornerbacks and defensive tackles.
If you've ever met Gary and John, you know they're all about love. Harmony. All that crap.
The trade deadline in many IDP leagues is either here or will be soon. Considering what it would realistically take to obtain them, what one IDP would you most like to acquire for the stretch run. And conversely, given a reasonable return, which IDP would you most be interested in unloading?
GURU: I would love to land Miami Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips for the stretch run. He missed all or most of five games with injury this year. In each of the other four, Phillips has at least half a sack and 12 or more points. The Dolphins are off this week, which might provide some leverage if the manager who has him in your league is in a must-win situation. However, from week 11 to 15, Miami plays the Raiders, Jets twice, Commanders, and Titans. That is four of five games against teams that are top-six matchups for edge defenders.
The player I am looking to trade is Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White. His name still carries weight with a lot of managers who still see him as an IDP stud. That and the fact he's put up double-digit points in consecutive games for the first time this season are good selling points. If you are trying to move him, be realistic about what you expect in return. White is an LB3 with some upside at this point. On the other hand, there are a lot of fantasy teams crippled by injuries at the position right now, so demand could be high.
GODFATHER: Provided I can leverage his disappointing first half of the season into a discount, taking a run at San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa could pay huge dividends down the stretch. Nine weeks into the season, Bosa has three sacks and ranks outside the top 50 defensive linemen in fantasy points. But we're talking about the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. He didn't forget how to rush the passer. The addition of Chase Young opposite him could lessen the constant double-teams a bit. Bosa is absolutely capable of being a game-changer and turning in a 10- to 12-sack in the second half. But there are fantasy managers who just can't afford to wait for him to get going.
There's also an edge rusher I'd be looking to unload if possible—Khalil Mack of the Los Angeles Chargers. Mack has name recognition. He has nine sacks through eight games this season. And he's fifth for the season in fantasy points among defensive linemen. But eight of Mack's nine sacks came in two games—including six in a Week 4 win over the Raiders. Two more of those sacks came last week against the Jets, so the window's open to sell for a decent return.
We're on to Week 10—in a much better mood than Bill Belichick. Which IDPs at each position are set up well this week to smash expectations, go gonzo in the box score, and lead fantasy managers to a badly needed win?
GURU: The Washington Commanders have not protected Sam Howell all year, and the trade of the team's stud bookends on the defensive line has to be even more demoralizing to the struggling team. Seattle Seahawks edge rusher Boye Mafe draws the juicy matchup this week. He is already on a streak of six games with a sack and has recently started adding more tackles to his resume. Mafe has over 43 points over his last two games, with a good chance to add a third consecutive outing with 20+ points.
I will not be surprised if Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw of the San Francisco 49ers are top-10 linebackers this week. Coming off the bye, they are rested and face the high-powered running game of a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that has allowed the second most fantasy points to linebackers.
Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton has been hit or miss this season, but when he hits, it is big. Hamilton has three games with 15 or more points thus far. One of those games was the first game against Cleveland back in week four. This is an important divisional game, so both teams will be fired up. We can't overlook that the Browns have allowed the third most points to safeties on the year.
GODFATHER: Well, we knew Norton wouldn't take long to pilfer a pick. I agree 100 percent on Mafe—he's well-positioned to set a franchise record with a sack in seven straight games.
Shaquil Barrett of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn't quite look like the edge rusher who led the league with 19.5 sacks back in 2019. Maybe it's age. Or recovery from the Achilles injury that cut short his 2022 season. But Barrett notched his third sack of 2023 last week against the Texans, and this week, he draws a Tennessee Titans team that has allowed both the fifth-most sacks in the league and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defensive ends. In two starts, Titans quarterback Will Levis has been dropped six times.
Logan Wilson of the Cincinnati Bengals doesn't get the mention he should as one of the best off-ball linebackers in the league, especially given his skills in coverage and knack for intercepting passes—no linebacker over the past 40 years has more picks over his first 47 career games. Wilson may not get an interception against the Texans—C.J. Stroud has only thrown one all season. But only the Denver Broncos have surrendered more fantasy points per game to linebackers this season than the Texans.
Budda Baker of the Arizona Cardinals has been about as consistent as fantasy managers can reasonably expect a safety to be in recent years—he was eighth among defensive backs in fantasy points last year and seventh in 2021. But since returning from a stint on injured reserve, Baker has been—okay. That changes this week. Baker has had a couple of games to get back in the swing. The Atlanta Falcons are a top-five fantasy matchup for the position, and the return of Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray should give the whole team a huge morale boost.
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