Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Saints
Alvin Kamara has been an elite fantasy producer since his return in Week 4. Only Christian McCaffrey has more fantasy points over the span, and Kamara has more than 15 points in eight of nine games. Kamara's upside has been aided greatly by the now No.1 HLO ranking for New Orleans on the season. The Saints have finished 15th or better every week Kamara has been active.
Dolphins
Miami had a blip down game for HLO in Week 12, but they were right back to a strong HLO team in the blowout win over Washington in Week 13. Raheem Mostert was the strong RB1 in the first half and transitioned to De'Von Achane with more work in the second half. The Dolphins have two fantasy starters in their backfield and have been HLO No.10 or better in 7 of 10 recent weeks.
Jets
While goal-line opportunities have eluded the Jets (No.32 in the NFL), with their negative game scripts, they are No.2 in running back targets. Their monthly HLO ranking improved over the first 12 weeks, and they posted another strong result in Week 13. Breece Hall can survive and even thrive without goal-line carries due to the receiving floor and ceiling. Dalvin Cook has looked less sluggish in recent weeks and sits in the clear RB2 position if Hall misses time in the final month.
THE BAD
Packers
AJ Dillon has been a fantasy disappointment this season, especially in games Aaron Jones has missed. His 10 PPR points were par for the course, considering Green Bay's anemic HLO result in Week 13, the second week in a row. This applies to Patrick Taylor should he see a clarified start in the coming weeks, as Jones is likely to miss more time.
Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet's clarified start was greeted by a bottom-half HLO week against Dallas in Week 13. Seattle has had four poor weeks over the last six games in HLO, and Ken Walker III is likely back in the next game or two. This backfield has survived on goal-line chances (No.5 in the NFL) and not the more predictable targets (No.25).
THE UGLY
Texans
Dameon Pierce's return reset the Houston backfield into a full-blown committee with Devin Singletary again. The surprising workhorse, Singletary had just 40% of routes and 33% of the rushing market share in Week 13. This is an untrustworthy backfield for lineup decisions outside of an injury to clarify the split. Houston is No.32 in targets and No.31 overall in HLO this season. They have one game better than No.14 in the weekly rankings on the season.
Cardinals
Arizona, like Houston, had one week in the HLO sun in Week 12. This past week was back to the same old story with a finish outside of No.20. Michael Carter clarifying the RB2 role helps the viability in case of a James Conner injury, but RB1 fantasy upside is a significant stretch based on HLO environment alone. Arizona is the only team in the NFL with three weekly dead-last finishes this season.
COLLECT
- Rico Dowdle
- Ty Montgomery
- Jamaal Williams
- Jeff Wilson Jr.
- D'Ernest Johnson
- Samaje Perine
- Craig Reynolds