Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- TE Darren Waller
- RB Saquon Barkley
- TE Dawson Knox
- TE Dalton Kincaid
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
- WR Tank Dell (concussion)
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- WR Tee Higgins
- WR Tank Dell
- WR Mike Evans
- TE Sam LaPorta
Eligible to return from injured reserve
Ruled Out
- QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
- RB Khalil Herbert (ankle - placed on IR)
- RB Roschon Johnson (concussion)
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring)
- QB Daniel Jones (neck)
- RB Miles Sanders (shoulder)
- WR Zay Jones (knee)
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals | Ribs | Questionable | Likely Active
If you remember from last week's edition of Gameday Expectations, I wrote about how the practice reports did not really matter for Tee Higgins since it was going to come down to pain tolerance and how that could be managed pre-game. That thought process rang true until Friday when Higgins was able to get in a full practice. He should start on Sunday.
Sunday Update: Tee Higgins is expected to play. Regarding his production post-injury, on average WRs who missed at least 1 game with a rib injury saw fantasy production drop by 2.1%. It has been an up-and-down season thus far for Higgins, but I would not expect the rib injury to limit him.
Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins | Rib/Finger | Doubtful | Likely Inactive
Even though Jeff Wilson Jr. was eligible to come off of the IR this week, it appears he still needs some time, as the Dolphins have officially listed him as Doubtful for Sunday. 95.1% of players listed as Doubtful end up sitting, and I would expect the same for Wilson. With De'Von Achane on IR as well, Salvon Ahmed is in the mix for backfield touches behind Raheem Mostert.
Sunday Update: Jeffl Wilson Jr. is not expected to play.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans | Concussion | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Originally, a report emerged that the Texans had ruled Tank Dell out with a concussion, but now the team officially has him listed as Questionable. The conflicting reports are a bit confusing, but in my opinion, it is a hint that he is probably closer to missing Week 6.
Sunday Update: Houston is expected to rule Dell out.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Games
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Hamstring Strain | Questionable | Likely Active
You may have missed it last week because his team was on a bye, but Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring injury. Evans was not practicing earlier in the week and there is a notion that older WRs are more hampered by soft tissue injuries - all pointing to him missing Week 6.
Although it is true that older WRs are at a much higher risk of re-injury, there is nothing in my data that suggests they miss more time. In fact, ~40% of 30+ year old WRs miss <1 week with a hamstring injury.
For what it’s worth, Mike Evans has dealt with hamstring issues before. His games missed in order were 3,0,1. All signs point to Evans being active.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions | Calf Injury | Questionable | Likely Active
Sam LaPorta is in the middle of a historic rookie season for fantasy TEs but gave managers a fright when he popped up on the injury report earlier this week. LaPorta told reporters that his calf injury "Flared up" earlier, and when pressed on whether he would play or not, he responded with, "That's the plan."
The data for TEs with calf injuries is all over the place, likely due to the varying degrees of the injury. 30% of tight ends miss no time with calf injuries, and upon return, they can see anywhere from a 13-26% decline in fantasy production. It sounds like LaPorta is going to suit up, and he's carried you thus far, so you have to play him, but there could be a drop of that high ceiling we've been accustomed to.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, LaPorta is "trending in the right direction." Expect the rookie TE to be active today.
Sunday 8:20 PM EST Game
Darren Waller, New York Giants | Groin | Questionable | 50/50
The roller coaster that is Darren Waller's injuries has not been a fun one for those who drafted him this season. Nearly 40% of TEs in my dataset have been able to play through groin strains without missing any time, but when you consider how Darren Waller has struggled with soft tissue injuries, my gut tells me to ignore the numbers. I lean towards Waller missing Week 6.
Sunday Update: Adam Schefter reporting that Waller is expected to play.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants | High Ankle Sprain | Questionable | 50/50
Saquon Barkley was seen practicing with this ankle heavily taped all week after missing 3 straight weeks with a high ankle sprain. The data for RBs suggests that Barkley should return in Week 6, but Barkley has not really installed confidence up to this point. It would appear that Barkely is a true game-time decision. To be honest, even if he does play, I am not sure fantasy managers would be happy with his performance. New York faces off with the Bills, one of the top defenses in the league. Daniel Jones is already listed as out, hampering the offense, and all the data points to RBs really struggling upon return from high ankle sprains.
Barkley may play, but even if you don't have word by the time you set lineups, I'd be okay benching him, given the circumstances.
Sunday Update: Per Adam Schefter, Barkely is optimistic that he will play tonight but the team will test him pre-game to see how he feels.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills | Concussion | Questionable | 50/50
Dalton Kincaid was limited all week, and per Kyle Trimble PT, DPT (@kyletrimble88) reports are that Kincaid was in a non-contact jersey all week. He will have to clear the concussion protocol on Saturday to play on Sunday. Check back Saturday evening / Sunday morning for an update.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills | Hand | Questionable | 50/50
Dawson Knox took a blow to his wrist and was later spotted in a splint, suggesting that he could be dealing with a wrist sprain. Knox was limited all week as well, suggesting his wrist is not ready for contact. There are some rumblings online that he could miss time, but nothing official yet to help me lean one way or the other. If Dalton Kincaid clears concussion protocol (above) he could be the Bills TE targets to himself.
Sunday Update: Knox is projected to play Sunday night.