Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs
- RB Saquon Barkley
- WR Tee Higgins
- WR Davante Adams
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- QB Derek Carr
- RB Justice Hill
- WR Odell Beckham Jr
- RB Javonte Williams
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Eligible to return from injured reserve
- RB Jonathan Taylor
- WR Cooper Kupp
- QB Kyler Murray
Ruled Out
- WR Treylon Burks (knee injury)
- TE Pat Freiermuth (hamstring)
- RB Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
Rhamondre Stevenson New England Patriots | Thigh Injury | Questionable | 50/50
Rhamondre Stevenson was a surprise add to the injury report this week, as prior to this, we did not have any indication he was dealing with an injury. These injuries are not overly serious, but most RBs do miss at least 1 game (75% of the sample). Stevenson is a true game-time decision, but don't be surprised if he sits.
Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts | Ankle Injury | Questionable | 50/50
The Jonathan Taylor saga this year has been rather confusing, and it is hard to determine what information is accurate. Taylor is eligible to come off the PUP, and he was a full participant all week in practice. This information would suggest he should play, but given how this situation has unfolded, you never know. If active, I would play Taylor, but he would be a flex option. I would not expect the ankle to limit him much, but this will be his first game action since last season. Safer fantasy managers might want to wait and see how involved Taylor is before starting him.
Derek Carr New Orleans Saints | AC Joint Sprain (Shoulder) | Questionable | Likely Active
Even though Derek Carr is questionable, he played last week with his AC Joint sprain, so I would expect the same in Week 5. His injury should not affect his fantasy production, but he does have a much higher injury risk, as a sack or blow to the shoulder could sideline him for the remainder of the game.
Justice Hill Baltimore Ravens | Turf Toe / Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Active
Justice Hill does not appear to be 100% over his turf toe injury, as he was limited to start the week, and the Ravens officially listed him as questionable. They also slapped the "hamstring injury" designation on him for good measure. Any chances of Hill not playing in Week 5 were put to rest after he logged a full practice on Friday, which is typically the biggest tell for availability. I expect Hill to play this week.
Odell Beckham Jr Baltimore Ravens | Ankle Injury | Questionable | Likely Active
After logging limited practices all week, Odell Beckham Jr told the media that he plans on playing this week. He missed the last 2 games with an ankle sprain. On average, WRs miss 2 weeks with ankle injuries, so this timeline checks out. All signs point to Beckham Jr. being good to go in Week 5.
Sunday Update: Per Ian Rapoport, Beckham Jr. will play in Week 5.
Jahmyr Gibbs Detroit Lions | Hamstring Strain | Questionable | 50/50
Jahymr Gibbs was a late addition to the injury report as he was added Friday with a hamstring injury. He did practice some but was listed as limited. It's never a good sign to pop up on the injury report at the back half of the week, but I am not hitting the panic button just yet. He was limited, suggesting this could be hamstring tightness and not a new injury. Fantasy managers should follow this situation closely Sunday morning.
Sunday Update: Gibbs has been downgraded to Doubtful. He is unlikely to play.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions | Core Injury | Doubtful | Likely Inactive
Expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to sit this week with a core injury. The Lions have listed St. Brown as doubtful, and 95.1% of players with this designation do not play. If you're reading this, you're probably more concerned about the long-term implications of this injury. As it stands, we do not know the exact injury. If St. Brown was dealing with a sports hernia, some of those require surgery, and he would likely be out until Detroit's Week 9 bye. There is some evidence of WRs missing minimal time with a core injury (less than 3 weeks), but there are other instances where WRs missed 9+ weeks. Right now, we have to sit pat and wait for more specifics.
Saquon Barkley New York Giants | High Ankle Sprain | Questionable | 50/50
Saquon Barkley was a limited practice participant all week, and the Giants have listed him as questionable for Week 5. Barkley was also limited all last week, but the team had him labeled as doubtful in Week 4. Even though Barkley appears to be moving in the right direction, I still lean towards him missing this week. The data on high ankle sprains supports what I know about high ankle sprain recovery times. Only 23% of RBs have returned from high ankle sprains in <2 weeks.
Sunday Update: Per Ian Rapoport, Barkely is not expected to play.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Games
Tee Higgins Cincinnati Bengals | Rib Fracture | Questionable | 50/50
After not practicing Wednesday and Thursday, Tee Higgins was limited on Friday, teasing fantasy managers regarding his availability. I think Higgins does sit in Week 5. He is dealing with a rib fracture, which is painful and carries a higher risk of re-injury. With this injury, the practice reports are not nearly as helpful, but it just comes down to healing time. Higgins could get an injection pre-game and try to play through it, but I am relying on the data, which points to him sitting this week.
Sunday Update: Higgins is not expected to play although the Bengals have not officially ruled him out.
Cooper Kupp Los Angeles Rams | Hamstring Strain | Questionable | Likely Active
He's baaaaack...at least, he should be. After some unclear reports about whether or not he was going to be ready in Week 5, Cooper Kupp is expected to return the Rams starting lineup in Week 5. My thoughts on Kupp premiered on the Footballguys Newsletter (if you're not signed up for daily updates from Footballguys, what are you doing? It's streamlined, actionable information to help every day that helps you get the edge over your league mates), but I will share the spark notes version here.
All the data on players coming off a hamstring injury in which they suffered a setback in the same season and Kupp's previous return to play post-injury history suggest him being on a snap count. I think on the high end, Kupp plays 80% of the Rams' offensive plays, but it's likely closer to 55-65%. Even with limited snaps, if we extrapolate Kupp's fantasy production from last season to this year, I think he is a solid flex option. Like most things, context matters. It depends on who else you have available to start, but Kupp should be in consideration even if he does not run his typical number of routes.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Games
Javonte Williams Denver Broncos | Quadriceps Strain | Questionable | Likely Active
I wrote earlier this week in the Footballguys Monday Injury Report how I was skeptical that Williams would be able to play this week, but he proved me wrong by also getting in a full practice on Friday. He should play in Week 5. Since 2011, 65% of RBs who returned from ACL Reconstruction (ACLR) sustained some type of lower-body injury the following season and most missed time. Were all of these injuries related to their ACLR? Probably not, but some could be the result of some compensation after surgery. I think it speaks to why, most often, RBs are eased into play with limited workloads. Williams has never eclipsed 45% of Denver's offensive snaps this season, and even though he is projected to play, this injury cannot help. Proceed with caution if you're considering playing Williams.
Monday Night 8:15 PM EST Game
Jimmy Garoppolo Las Vegas Raiders | Concussion | Questionable | Likely Active
Jimmy Garoppolo has cleared the concussion protocol and will be under center in Week 5.
Davante Adams Las Vegas Raiders | Shoulder Injury | Questionable | 50/50
This last injury is a difficult one because Davante Adams is a pivotal contributor to many fantasy teams, and we have not been given a ton of information thus far since Las Vegas plays on Monday night. Adams has not practiced all week with his shoulder injury, which at this point looks like an AC joint sprain. Adams briefly missed time in Week 4 with this injury and, to my surprise, returned after a visit to the locker room. It was there he was likely given something to help him manage the pain. Upon his return, Adams secured 8 catches on 12 targets for 75 yards. A testament to his resilience.
Although this is a gamble, I think Adams plays in Week 5. This is similar to the Tee Higgins situation (listed above), where the practice reports don't tell the whole truth. Adams is still recovering from this injury and is not 100%, so he probably won't practice much, if at all. But prior to the game, he can be given something for the pain that will help him play. If you remember, in Week 2, Brandon Aiyuk dealt with a very similar situation and was close to suiting up, but the 49ers were on a short week. Adams has the benefit of an extra day. Not all injuries are the same, but given the context here, I'd roll the dice and leave Adams in my lineups.