Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Week 14

The end of the fantasy regular season is always somewhat chaotic as we deal with injuries and all the usual situational issues that NFL teams go through at this point in the season. The exclamation point in week thirteen was the upside-down matchup results. Teams that have been terrible matchups all season like the Titans, suddenly became strong ones, while those that had been great matchups, like Denver, were anything but. As frustrating as it may be, there is no way to identify things like that ahead of time. All we can do is make the best decisions based on what we know and hope luck and karma don't stick it to us at the worst possible time.

Arizona Cardinals

It took a while but Josh Woods is finally starting to put up the kind of numbers you would expect from an every-down inside linebacker. He fell just short of double digits in week eleven with a respectable 6-1, then had his first double-digit total of the season versus the Steelers last week at 5-6. Arizona is on their bye but will finish up with San Francisco, Chicago, and Philadelphia, who are all pretty solid matchups.

Despite their struggles in week twelve, the Cardinals stuck with Kei'Trel Clark and Divaad Wilson as their starting corners against Pittsburgh. The results were much better this time around. The matchup had a lot to do with it but there is a good chance we will see the same duo in the lineup when they return after the bye.

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell left Sunday's game after suffering a concussion in the first quarter. Interestingly, it was not Tre Flowers or even Mike Hughes who replaced him, instead, it was Clark Phillips III who had seen action in just one other game previously. Phillips came on to play 96% of the snaps and finished with four solo stops.

DeMarcco Hellams continues to see his playing time increase. He went 3-1 on 74% of the snaps versus New York. This time, however, there might have been extenuating circumstances. Richie Grant (1-1-1 FF) had the same role and virtually the same amount of playing time as he did in week twelve. Hellams' extra snaps came from Nate Landman who left the game with a knee injury. The update on Landman suggests that he avoided a serious injury, but he is unlikely to go this week.

Baltimore Ravens

At this stage of the season, I generally like to go with player value over matchups. The Titans and Broncos swapping places as matchups go last week is a perfect example of why. That said, it is worth mentioning that since week six, the Rams have allowed the fewest points to linebackers. That's not a great sign for those of us with Patrick Queen or Roquan Smith.

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City has been a poor matchup for linemen, a mediocre matchup for linebackers, and a solid matchup for defensive backs in general. If you are looking for a potential standout at corner this week, Taron Johnson might be your guy, as nickel/slot defenders have been particularly productive versus the Chiefs.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had both Jaycee Horn and CJ Henderson available in week twelve. Both players saw action, but neither was a full participant. Horn played 32 of 62 snaps against the Buccaneers, posting a solid 4-1 with a pass breakup. He should see more action in his second game back and could return to the full-time role against the Saints. Henderson was starting earlier in the year because Horn was injured, so part-time might be the norm for him going forward.

After going off in week one, Brian Burns has been a wildly inconsistent disappointment all season. He had one tackle before being ejected last week, but most significantly, Burns totaled two assists in his first meeting with the Saints, who are a horrible matchup for pass rushers. This is not the week to roll the dice on Burns.

Jeremy Chinn returned to action, but despite Vonn Bell being sidelined with a shoulder injury, Chinn had no significant role and played seven snaps. Alex Cook got the start at strong safety and made just one tackle despite playing all 62 snaps. Bell did not practice last week and may not be ready for week 14. It's a shaky situation, but the Saints have allowed the second most points to safeties since week six.

Chicago Bears

Through the first eleven weeks of the season, Tyrique Stevenson was the most targeted corner in the league, and his tackle numbers showed it. He was knocked out of week twelve with a foot injury that could keep him out a few games. That opened the door for fellow rookie Terell Smith to rack up eight solo stops versus the Vikings and potentially put up big numbers against the Lions this week. Detroit has allowed the sixth most points to corners since week six.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cam Taylor-Britt landed on IR on Monday. That makes rookie DJ Turner the starter opposite Chidobe Awuzie for at least the rest of the games that matter to us. Turner totaled eight solo stops against Jacksonville and should be busy against the Vikings in week 15 and the Chiefs in week 17. He could be a surprise in weeks 14 and 16 as well, but the Colts and Steelers are unfavorable matchups. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth fewest points to corners since week six.

Cleveland Browns

Somehow, the Browns managed to have no linebacker with more than five fantasy points in a game where the Rams ran the ball or threw underneath to running backs or tight ends 29 times. Jacksonville is a middle-of-the-pack matchup for linebackers, so Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is an option. But only if you are desperate.

Myles Garrett played 57 of 64 snaps despite the sore shoulder. He was not the dominant player we are used to seeing. Garrett is battered and has played through a plethora of injuries all season. This one seems to have finally slowed him down. He was shut out by the Rams, giving Garret a total of two tackles over the last two games, going into a below-average matchup with the Jaguars.

Dallas Cowboys

Damone Clark had a banner day at 8-3 when the Cowboys and Eagles met in week nine. So we should start him, right? Before you do that, consider these facts. Clark played 92% of the snaps in that game. He's reached an 80% play share in one game since. Over the first half of the season, the Eagles were a great matchup for linebackers. Over the second half, not so much. In the last six weeks, only the Rams, Packers, and Seahawks have given up fewer points to linebackers.

Denver Broncos

P.J. Locke was a backup until Kareem Jackson was suspended (twice). With Jackson looking at two more games on his second vacation, Locke will get at least two more starts. As well as he has been playing, it would not be a surprise to see him finish the season as the starter. Locke looked good in week twelve when he finished 5-2-1 with a pass breakup against Cleveland. Just to prove it was not a fluke, he followed it with a line of 6-2-1 against the Texans. Locke has been every bit as good on the field as he has on the stat sheet. Matchups against the Chargers (x2), Detroit, and New England over the final four weeks of the fantasy season are all below average. On the other hand, the Texans were supposed to be a horrible matchup last week.

Baron Browning has fewer than six points in three of the last five games. In the other two, he combined for 35. The important thing to know here is that Browning has been a much bigger factor on the field than in the box scores in the last two weeks. That impact will eventually show up in fantasy points. We are out of time for patience this season, but dynasty managers should stash this guy.

Drew Sanders is getting a little opportunity lately. He has 36 snaps over the last two games, all at the expense of Josey Jewell. That could be a tell-tale sign of things to come.

Detroit Lions

Alex Anzalone was on the shelf last week with a hand injury. Coach Campbell said there is a chance he could be available in week fourteen, but it is far from certain. The Lions adjusted not by promoting Derrick Barnes or Jack Campbell to the every-down role but by splitting up Anzalone's snaps among four players. Barnes played 84% of the snaps, and Jack Campbell 79%. Those were higher percentages than either player had been seeing. The remaining playing time was split between Malcolm Rodriguez (46%) and Jalen Reeves-Maybin (30%).

This week's IDP version of "That Helps No One" includes a pair of Detroit pass rushers. Aiden Hutchinson is supposed to be their star. He logged 61 of a possible 66 snaps and did virtually nothing. Josh Paschal started at the other edge position. He managed a decent 3-0 with a fumble recovery, while the team's two sacks were recorded by Romeo Okwara and recently signed Bruce Irvin, who totaled 2-1-2 on 20 plays between them.

Managers with Hutchinson are eyeing this week's game against Chicago with high hopes for one of his rare explosive outings. I suggest tempering those hopes and maybe even sitting Hutchinson. The Chicago offense, a stellar matchup for pass rushers through week six, has allowed less than two sacks per game since week seven.

Tackle Alim McNeill was on the rise over the last few weeks. His assent is now on pause after he landed on IR with a knee injury. He might be back in time for the Lions playoff run but will not be there to help us with ours. The team signed Tyson Alualu off the street to fill the void on the depth chart. Quinton Bohanna is the favorite to start going forward.

Green Bay Packers

Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford returned to action against Kansas City, but only Savage returned to the starting lineup. Jonathan Owens has been impressive enough that he appears to have bumped Ford to a backup role. Ford played just seven snaps. Owens might be the starter for the Packers, but think twice about making him your starter this week. Only three teams have allowed fewer points to safeties since week six than the Giants.

Houston Texans

Will Anderson had one sack over the first eight weeks of the season. He has had four in the last five games, including a 3-2-2 with a pass breakup and a season-high of nearly 20 fantasy points versus Denver. The Texans' next four games are against the Titans x2, Cleveland, and the Jets. All three teams are in the top five in points allowed to edge defenders. Anderson and Jonathan Greenard are looking great for the fantasy playoff push.

Denver has been a great matchup for linebackers, at least until last week. The good news here is that Blake Cashman emerged as an every-down linebacker. The bad news is that even he pretty much stunk in terms of IDP production. Cashman played every snap but totaled only 1-4. Christian Harris was 4-2 on 60%, and Denzel Perryman 2-3 on 65%, while Henry To'oto'o saw no action on defense. As the Texans have proven over and over, last week's snap counts are not necessarily a great indicator of things to come, and the Jets are a below-average matchup for linebackers. Take those things into consideration if Cashman is one of your options. On the other hand, the guy has proven to have a high ceiling if you are inclined to gamble.

Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee was supposed to be a poor matchup for linebackers and safeties. Roquan Smith was 4-5 against them, as was Elandon Roberts. Lavonte David and Devin White combined for five tackles and four assists in week ten. The IDP games' top linebacker, Foyesade Oluokun, managed just 2-4 in week eleven, and Frankie Luvu went 1-1. The numbers were even worse for the safeties, with no one recording more than three solo stops since week eight. Yet E.J. Speed managed a solid 6-2 and Julian Blackmon a surprising 6-1 with a fumble recovery. Only Zaire Franklin gave us a stinker. These players will be tested again in week 14 when they go to Cincinnati, who has also been a basement-dwelling matchup for those positions. That said, Cincinnati seems to have discovered Joe Mixon in recent weeks.

There was an interesting turn of events at the Colts' safety position last week. Rodney Thomas started as usual but finished with a 67% play share. I have not yet had a chance to watch the game, nor have I been able to find any information to explain why. There is no word of an injury, so I am assuming he was benched. Nick Cross had played 20 total snaps on the season but came on to go 4-1 with a pass breakup in 31 plays in this one. Cross has a lot of potential if he can get back in the lineup, so this is one to keep an eye on.

Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Bolton was activated from IR and has begun practicing. Coach Reid has not yet confirmed that he will be active for the week 14 game versus Buffalo, but he appears to be trending in the right direction. A return this week would be perfect timing for the Chiefs. They will likely be without Drue Tranquill, who took a big hit and is in concussion protocol. Jack Cochrane played every snap at the middle linebacker after Tranquill went out and would get the call if neither Bolton nor Tranquill was available.

Justin Reid limped off early in the second quarter but returned to post his best tackle total of the season at 9-1. The Chiefs will be without Bryan Cook this week, though. He left with an ankle injury and was not able to put any weight on it before being carted off. Mike Edwards came on in relief and will be the starter.

Las Vegas Raiders

Since losing Kurt Cousins a few weeks back, the Vikings have transformed from a stellar matchup for defensive backs to a strong matchup for linebackers as they turn to more of a run-based attack. So much so, in fact, that I have Robert Spillane as a projected top-five linebacker this week.

Los Angeles Chargers

Alohi Gilman had double-digit points in six of his eight games on the season, including four in a row, before he all but took last week off. Gilman played every snap in his normal strong safety role, so there is nothing to be concerned about from that perspective. The matchup with Denver is another story. The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest points to safeties since week six.

If you need a fix at the corner position, look at Deane Leonard. He became a starter when Michael Davis was benched ahead of week twelve. Leonard has played every snap in the last two games, combining for 13-2 with a tackle for loss and a pass breakup. Denver is a below-average matchup for corners on most weeks, but Leonard is likely to be targeted often due to his lack of experience.

Los Angeles Rams

With Quentin Lake sidelined by a sore hamstring, John Johnson made his first start since rejoining the Rams this year. His tackle totals were modest at 1-5, but Johnson added an interception to boost his point total. Lake has a chance to play this week and could be back in the starting lineup. On the other hand, Lake was not set in stone as a starter before the hamstring issue and had just replaced Russ Yeast at the position. Johnson played well, but was it enough to earn him a chance to start again? Whoever holds this job is likely to put up good numbers over the next four games.

Michael Hoecht was active against the Browns but was not 100% with a sore knee. Hoecht held his normal every-down role but was shut out of the box score. His strength as a run defender should make the Ravens a plus matchup, providing he is healthy enough to take advantage of it.

Kobie Turner had another strong outing, going 1-4-1.5 against Cleveland. With 13 tackles, 7 assists, and 4.5 sacks over his last four games, Turner is a hot waiver add.

Miami Dolphins

Jerome Baker is week-to-week after a friendly-fire knee injury. He is not expected to play this week but will not go on IR. Duke Riley replaced Baker and went 3-5 with a forced fumble on 31 plays. David Long moved into the lead role after Baker left and will likely be on the field for nearly 100% of the action this week. He was 5-3 on 45 snaps last week. Depending on which Titans' offense shows up, Long could be a solid LB3 for us.

Just like he did when the chance came early in the season, Andrew Van Ginkle came through big. He was not able to land a sack but more than made up for it with four tackles, an assist, an interception for a score, and a 27+ point day. He will have tough matchups with the Cowboys and Ravens in weeks 16 and 17, but games against Tennessee and the Jets over the next two weeks could go a long way toward helping fantasy managers get to week 16.

New Orleans Saints

Pete Werner missed week thirteen with an oblique injury. Many managers anticipated a much bigger role for Zack Baun. Fortunately, Baun bailed those managers out with a sack on one of his 20 snaps. Meanwhile, it was Nephi Sewell who replaced Werner and went 5-3 with a pair of tackles for loss on his 72% share of the playing time.

New York Jets

The Falcons are a mediocre matchup for linebackers, but you wouldn't know it from last week's stat sheet. After piling up 14 stops with nine solos against Miami, C.J. Mosley could muster just one solo and four assists versus Atlanta. Quincy Williams was not a lot better at 4-4. The good news for managers with either of these guys is that the Jets have great matchups for linebackers the rest of the way, with games against the Texans, Dolphins, Commanders, and Browns remaining on the schedule.

Atlanta doesn't throw the ball well or often, so D.J. Reed's 2-0 with a pair of pass breakups was not bad for a guy who should have been on everyone's bench anyway. He should be in our lineups the rest of the way, though. Of those four remaining matchups, only the Browns rank lower than 15th in points allowed to corners since week six.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles took a whooping from San Francisco in week thirteen. The loss exposed and emphasized the team's injury-riddled linebacker position just in time for them to land Shaquille Leonard on Monday. On paper, the addition addresses a major need for the Eagles. In reality, we will have to see what kind of contribution Leonard can make. It's safe to say he will not be any worse than what the team currently has. How much better is in question, though. We can't count on Leonard having a full role this week, but he should see some time, especially with the release of last week's starter, Christian Ellis, on Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have serious issues at linebacker as well. They went into the season with a crowd at the position but saw the last of their three starters, Elandon Roberts, leave early in week thirteen with a groin injury. Fortunately for the Steelers, they have a pretty solid and experienced number four in Mykal Walker. He assumed the lead role after Roberts left and finished 7-3 on 96% of the snaps. Mark Robinson came off the bench to play the other spot on short notice. The team has added a pair of former NFL starters in recent weeks. Neither Myles Jacks nor Blake Martinez have seen any action since joining the team, but that could change this week. Martinez, in particular, is an interesting player to watch. He has the potential to be more than a short-term fill-in.

The team took another hit when T.J. Watt came up lame with a sore ankle in Sunday's loss. He tried to play through it but was in and out of the game at critical points and was obviously gimpy when he did play. Watch this week's practice reports to see where he stands heading into the game with New England.

Seattle Seahawks

When Jordyn Brooks hobbled off the field on Thursday, it looked pretty bad. We are still awaiting an update beyond the confirmation of an ankle injury, but Pete Carroll's vibe suggests the ankle might not be as bad as it looked. Hopefully, there will be some clarity when the Wednesday practice reports come out. If Brooks misses time, Devin Bush will get the call to fill in.

Julian Love played 127 snaps in weeks 11 and 12 combined. He played 18 in week 13 but still managed four tackles. One would think that the loss of Brooks might lead to more three safety looks. That might be the case this week, but it was not so in week thirteen when Bush stepped in.

San Francisco 49ers

There are a lot of IDP managers trying to figure out what to do with Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner. If you can afford to, I would bench them both, at least for this week. On the field, this is one of the best linebacker duos in the game. The problem for IDP managers is that the San Francisco defense might be too good. Greenlaw has not exceeded five solo or eight total stops in any of the last four games and has not reached fourteen points in a game since week two. Warner has four or fewer solo stops in five of the last seven games, with more than seven combined stops in just three of them. San Francisco dominated Philadelphia so thoroughly that Eagles running backs saw just nine total carries. Seattle has injuries at running back and has provided the third-fewest points to linebackers since week six.

Arik Armstead is expected to miss some time with foot and knee injuries. Javon Kinlaw will see a boost in playing time and is coming off the best game of his career at 2-2-2. The former first-round pick came with a lot of expectations, but those two sacks were his first since 2020. Let's just say it's too early to get excited about Kinlaw, but it doesn't cost anything to put him on the watch list.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lavonte David, Devin White, and SirVocea Dennis were all inactive for Sunday's game, and K.J. Britt was hurt in the first quarter (back). That left J.J. Russell in the lead role and a couple of special teams guys as the only other active linebackers. The Buccaneers compensated by turning to a big nickel, with Ryan Neal seeing 79% of the action, lining up as a linebacker for much of the game. The team expects Dennis to be available for week fourteen, and there is hope that David can play as well. The Falcons translated to a poor matchup for Jets linebackers last week, but they have not been bad on most weeks.

Yaya Diaby turned in another strong game at 3-3-1. He is not going to be available in many leagues at this point, but if you have him, play him for the next three games. Atlanta, Green Bay, and Jacksonville are all top twelve matchups for edge defenders.

Tennessee Titans

Jack Gibbens turned in a big statistical game against the Colts at 9-4 with a pass breakup, but beware if you are considering him as a possible starter this week. Gibbens played 59% of the snaps in week thirteen and could see even less action against the Dolphins spread offense. That said, Monty Rice is not a threat after logging nine snaps on Sunday.

Jeffery Simmons left Sunday's game with a knee injury. It may not be a season-ending injury, but he is expected to miss time.

K'Von Wallace gave us two total stops in week thirteen, but he remains the starter. Wallace played 90% of the snaps versus the Colts and should be a lot more involved when Tennessee faces Miami this week. Only the Packers and Saints have been better matchups for safeties since week six.

That's a wrap for week fourteen. Best of luck to everyone this week, especially those managers in must-win situations.

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