Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 53.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 50.5
- New York Jets at Denver Broncos - Over/Under 43.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Dolphins at home vs. Giants - Implied Team Total 30
- Lions at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 26.8
- Ravens on the road vs. Steelers - Implied Team Total 21.5
- Colts at home vs. Titans - Implied Team Total 22
- Texans on the road vs. Falcons - Implied Team Total 20
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | at Steelers | $7,800 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | vs. Jets | $5,700 |
| 3 | Zach Wilson | at Broncos | $4,900 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Eagles | $5,600 |
Lamar Jackson ranks fifth in DraftKings points per game (23.2) at the quarterback position aided by his 220 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground. The dual-threat Jackson is leading a Ravens offense that ranks tenth in EPA (Expected Points Added) per Play and gets an average Steelers defense that will be put in unfavorable positions due to a struggling and banged-up Pittsburgh offense.
Multiple factors are working in Russell Wilson's favor for fantasy football. For one, the Broncos defense absolutely stinks. And even better, Sean Payton and Wilson are working together successfully so far. Wilson is leading a Broncos offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA and he ranks ninth in passing yards per game (253.5) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.25). Wilson is at home and has a surprisingly good matchup on paper against a Jets defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
I give Zach Wilson a lot of credit for his good performance on Sunday Night Football with Patrick Mahomes II on the other side. The young man came to play. Wilson completed 28 of 39 passes (71.8%) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. One good performance certainly doesn't change my perception of him as a bad quarterback but priced at just $4,900, Wilson can play poorly and still get there for us in cash in a dream matchup against a bad Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Matthew Stafford is an absolute gamer. He leads a Rams offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play and eighth in Dropback EPA and gets to play at home in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) on the week. He's priced at just $5,600.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | at Patriots | $6,300 |
| 2 | Kyren Williams | vs. Eagles | $6,700 |
| 3 | James Conner | vs. Bengals | $5,800 |
Alvin Kamara returned from suspension last week and immediately saw 25 opportunities including 14 targets. That's incredible usage in full PPR and he's priced at just $6,300 against a banged-up Patriots defense.
Kyren Williams ranks seventh in the entire NFL in opportunities per game (21.5) and has scored two touchdowns in three of four games so far this season. He's at home and priced at just $6,700.
The Bengals are a struggling football team right now and James Conner gets them at home. Conner is averaging a very respectable 18 opportunities per game and gets a Cincinnati defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Brown | at Rams | $8,000 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | vs. Panthers | $7,800 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | at Falcons | $5,600 |
| 4 | Garrett Wilson | at Broncos | $6,000 |
| 5 | Adam Thielen | at Lions | $5,100 |
A.J. Brown is one of the best wide receiver talents we have in today's game. He ranks sixth in targets per game (10.8) and seventh in receiving yards per game (103.5) and gets a Rams defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Plus, this Eagles at Rams game has the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown isn't 100% healthy at the moment, but he's a gamer and gets a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in Success Rate. The Lions are 8.5-point home favorites and St. Brown ranks 13th in targets per game (8.8).
Nico Collins is enjoying a third-year breakout paired with superstar rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Collins ranks fifth in receiving yards per game (107) and tied for third with 3 touchdown catches. DraftKings has him under-priced, and he gets a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Zach Wilson completed 28 of 39 passes (71.8%) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. And Garrett Wilson saw 14 targets in that game. Wilson has guaranteed volume on his side and now has a dream matchup against a bad Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Over the past three games, Adam Thielen is averaging 10.3 targets, 8.3 receptions, 91.7 receiving yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per contest. Thielen is priced at just $5,100 and will be needed if the Panthers hope to keep pace with the Lions.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam LaPorta | vs. Panthers | $5,000 |
| 2 | Tyler Higbee | vs. Eagles | $4,100 |
| 3 | Tyler Conklin | at Broncos | $3,200 |
Sam LaPorta's ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (27), third in receptions (22), and first in receiving yards (242). LaPorta is talented and productive and gets a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in Success Rate.
Tyler Higbee's ranks at the tight end position: eighth in targets (23), ninth in receptions (16), and fourth in receiving yards (196). He's priced at just $4,100 in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) on the week.
Tyler Conklin's stat lines in his past three games: 5 for 50 on 6 targets, 3 for 26 on 5 targets, and 4 for 58 on 6 targets. He's priced at just $3,200 and has a dream matchup against a bad Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | at Falcons | $3,500 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | vs. Saints | $3,100 |
Desmond Ridder is simply not a good quarterback. Through four games, Ridder has just 3 touchdowns compared to 3 interceptions. This puts the Texans D/ST in play.
The Patriots defense is banged up, but they're at home and priced at just $3,100 against a struggling Saints offense.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | at Vikings | $8,200 |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs. Giants | $7,100 |
| 3 | Anthony Richardson | vs. Titans | $7,000 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | vs. Chiefs | $6,900 |
Patrick Mahomes II hasn't had a ceiling game yet, but we all know it's only a matter of time. Things set up well for that to happen in Week 5, with Mahomes playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) on the week against a Vikings defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Vikings are at home and will likely push the Chiefs in this one. That's great news for Mahomes in fantasy.
Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards per game (326.5), ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.25), and leads a Dolphins offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and first in Dropback EPA. This could be a slaughter at home against a Giants defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 23rd in Success Rate.
Anthony Richardson ranks fourth in DraftKings points per game (23.4) at the quarterback position, aided by his 131 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground in only three games. Richardson was an extremely exciting prospect and is developing well under the tutelage of Shane Steichen. He plays at home here against a Titans defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Kirk Cousins is the home quarterback in the game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) on the week and almost certainly will be pushed to produce by Patrick Mahomes II on the other side. The Chiefs defense has been solid to begin the season, but this game has shootout potential, and Cousins ranks third in passing yards per game (303.5) and first in pass touchdowns per game (2.75).
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breece Hall | at Broncos | $5,400 |
| 2 | De'Von Achane | vs. Giants | $6,100 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson | vs. Texans | $7,700 |
| 4 | David Montgomery | vs. Panthers | $6,600 |
| 5 | D'Andre Swift | at Rams | $6,000 |
| 6 | Jaleel McLaughlin | vs. Jets | $5,000 |
Robert Saleh announced this week Breece Hall is no longer on a pitch count. Perfect timing as Hall now gets to attack a bad Broncos defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed. Hall is priced at just $5,400 and has astronomical upside.
Here's what I had to say about De'Von Achane back in May:
Achane will be able to create his own luck in the league because he holds a very valuable trump card: speed. Achane ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine, which wasn't a surprise as Achane is also a track star. Per Pro Football Focus, as a sophomore on Texas A&M's track team, he ran a 10.14-second 100-meter dash, the tenth-fastest time in program history. That speed consistently shows up in Achane's film, as does toughness you wouldn't expect from a smaller back. Achane is a versatile dual-threat who caught 60 passes over his final two collegiate seasons. And he literally just hit the perfect landing spot lottery. The Dolphins only made four total selections during the draft, and head coach Mike McDaniel still prioritized Achane's speed and made it a point to select him in the third round. Raheem Mostert has an injury history and will play the 2023 season at age 31, and Jeff Wilson Jr. is a solid committee back but nothing more. Look out, Achane is going to make major waves as a rookie.
He has totaled 353 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 33 touches over the past two weeks. Play him with confidence in tournaments against a putrid Giants defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Bijan Robinson is an incredible talent, ranks 15th in opportunities per game (18.8), and has a great matchup at home against a Texans defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Lions are 8.5-point home favorites against the Panthers. That's David Montgomery's music. Shockingly priced at just $6,600, Montgomery ranks fourth in the NFL in opportunities per game (24) and gets the Panthers defense, which ranks dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.
Removing Week 1, in which Kenneth Gainwell operated as the clear lead running back for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift is averaging 22.3 opportunities per game over the past three contests, which would rank sixth most in the league. Swift's talent is on full display behind the Eagles' star-studded offensive line, and he gets a Rams defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Javonte Williams is banged up, which puts Jaleel McLaughlin directly into the spotlight. He has the NCAA all-time record for rushing yards with 8,166 and he totaled 79 rushing touchdowns as well. The kid can absolutely play. Last week, he turned just 10 touches into 104 total yards and 1 touchdown. Look for McLaughlin to get more work at home against a Jets defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Addison | vs. Chiefs | $5,300 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | vs. Chiefs | $9,400 |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill | vs. Giants | $9,000 |
| 4 | Ja'Marr Chase | at Cardinals | 7,900 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Giants | $7,500 |
| 6 | Puka Nacua | vs. Eagles | $7,700 |
| 7 | DeVonta Smith | at Rams | $7,400 |
| 8 | Tank Dell | at Falcons | $4,800 |
Jordan Addison put up a goose egg, but he still ran a route on 73% of dropbacks in Week 4. It was just a rare occurrence where the Vikings could control the game throughout. That won't be the case this week against Patrick Mahomes II. Addison is a fun tournament play in the game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) on the week. Of course, the wide receiver king himself, Justin Jefferson, has elite upside in this favorable fantasy game as well.
Tua Tagovailoa leads a Dolphins offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and first in Dropback EPA. This could be a slaughter at home against a Giants defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 23rd in Success Rate. Tyreek Hill has the talent and matchup to break the slate here. And then there's Jaylen Waddle, who has yet to have a blowup game. We know it's only a matter of time, and this is as good a spot as any, especially since Waddle will be low-owned due to recency bias.
The Bengals offense is broken right now, but at least Ja'Marr Chase is getting force-fed. Over the past two weeks, Chase has caught 19 of 24 targets for 214 yards. This is a fun spot to roster him at low ownership against a Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 28th in Success Rate.
Out of all wide receivers, Puka Nacua ranks first in targets per game (13), first in receptions per game (9.8), and second in receiving yards per game (125.3). He's absolutely balling and now gets to play at home in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) on the week.
DeVonta Smith started the season hot but has cooled off a bit over the past two weeks. That could change quickly in this one in the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Rams defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
C.J. Stroud is absolutely balling out, and that not only helps Nico Collins but Tank Dell as well. Dell had a down game last week but, prior to that, had caught 12 of 17 targets for 217 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in Weeks 2 and 3. Recency bias could cause Dell to be low-owned, which makes him a fun play priced at just $4,800 against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Goedert | at Rams | $4,200 |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | at Vikings | $7,600 |
| 3 | Mark Andrews | at Steelers | $5,500 |
| 4 | T.J. Hockenson | vs. Chiefs | $6,500 |
Dallas Goedert has run 130 routes, the third most in the NFL at the tight end position. It's only a matter of time before he has a 2023 breakout game, especially since head coach Nick Sirianni recently had this to say: "Trust me — I promise you he’s still part of the plan of us wanting to get him the football. We need to get him the football. Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, with what’s kind of going on right now. There are some different things that defenses are concerned about with Dallas that have affected some of the touches he’s gotten. It’s a bit of both. He is a great player. We rely on him.” Goedert is priced at just $4,200 in the game, with the second-highest Over/Under (50.5) on the week.
As discussed earlier with Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce hasn't had a ceiling game yet, but we all know it's only a matter of time. Things set up well for that to happen in Week 5, with Kelce playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) on the week against a Vikings defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Vikings are at home and will likely push the Chiefs in this one. That's great news for both Mahomes and Kelce in fantasy.
It's shocking to see Mark Andrews priced at just $5,500. He leads all tight ends in touchdown catches with three despite missing Week 1 due to injury. This is not a matchup to be afraid of against an average Steelers defense that will be put in unfavorable positions due to a struggling and banged-up Pittsburgh offense.
T.J. Hockenson's ranks at the tight end position: second in routes run (135), first in targets (30), first in catches (25), third in receiving yards (203), and third in touchdown receptions (2). He's a strong play in the game with the highest Over/Under (53.5) on the week.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | at Steelers | $4,200 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | vs. Giants | $3,600 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | vs. Panthers | $3,800 |
The Steelers have the lowest Implied Team Total (17.5) of the entire week. The Ravens defense ranks second in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Giants offense ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, and they just gave up 11 sacks against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. This offense is totally broken. The Dolphins are 10.5-point home favorites.
The Lions are 8.5-point home favorites, and their defense ranks sixth best in EPA/Play Allowed, seventh best in Dropback EPA Allowed, and sixth best in Success Rate.
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce Runback Options: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison
- Tua Tagovailoa and/or Jaylen Waddle/Tyreek Hill
- Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews