Three Up
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The fantasy output hasn't been there for Matthew Stafford this season, but there is reason to expect it soon. He's running a high-volume passing attack with some of his career-worst efficiency. His pace of 690 pass attempts would be the second-most of his career, behind only his record-setting 727 from 2012. The 4,933 passing yards he's pacing for would be the third-most of his career. However, his 2.5% touchdown rate is a career-low and well below his career mark of 4.7%. And the 17 interceptions he's expected to throw would be the third-most of his career. Just two years ago, a healthy Stafford was the QB5 in fantasy on his way to a Super Bowl win. He is playing at a similar level this year, but the flukey touchdown and interception rates are at the extreme ends of his career-long spectrums. Those should stabilize as the season progresses. Especially with Cooper Kupp back in the fold, expect Stafford to start providing starting numbers as a fantasy quarterback.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
He's back! Last year, rookie Breece Hall exploded onto the scene as one of the best running backs in the game. Almost exactly one year later, his ACL injury appears to be in the rearview. Before Sunday's matchup against the Denver Broncos, Jets' head coach Robert Saleh said Hall would no longer be on a snap count. He set a season-high in snaps, carries, targets, receptions, and scrimmage yards while scoring his first touchdown. PFF gave him his best overall offensive grade, run grade, and pass grade on the season. Over the last two weeks, Hall has rushed for a whopping 8.3 yards per attempt. Only De'Von Achane has accrued more rushing yards over expectation per attempt for the season. Hall is defying what we know about ACL recoveries and should be viewed as a top-12 fantasy running back going forward.
"Elite" Tight Ends
Drafters who invested in elite tight ends this season felt shaky going into Week 5. Dallas Goedert was PPR's TE30. Kyle Pitts was the TE29. Darren Waller and George Kittle were the TE12 and TE13, all looking like lousy draft picks. Week 5 reminded us why we drafted these tight ends where we did. Kittle's three-touchdown performance provided the most fantasy points we've seen from a tight end this year. Goedert finally found the end zone and finished as the TE2 with 25.7 points. Travis Kelce, yet to provide a boom game, returned from a scary injury, scored on one of his 11 targets, and amassed 22.7 points. Waller, Pitts, and Mark Andrews provided TE1 numbers on the week, too. Rookie breakout Sam LaPorta scored twice, finishing the day with 19.7 points. It was a great day all around for the tight end position. And while some managers were thinking about pivoting away from their highly-drafted guys in Week 5, this reminded us to embrace the volatility and start our studs.
Three Down
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Because he is a notoriously slow starter, I don't think it's time to hit the panic button on Derrick Henry yet. But there are a few indicators that his reign could be coming to an end. First of all, the efficiency metrics are not great. Henry's 3.8 yards per carry are, by far, his career worst. Getting into the advanced metrics, Henry is picking up just 1.7 yards after contact per attempt, the fewest of his career. His broken tackle rate and rushing yards over expectation are the second-lowest he's ever posted, behind only his injury-plagued 2021 campaign. Over the last five years, Henry has been a workhorse, staying on the field over about 70% of the team's snaps and carrying the bulk of the load. This year, he's eclipsed a 70% snap share just once, being held to as little as 38% and 48% in two of his outings. Dating back to Week 3 of 2019, Henry has only seen a sub-50% snap share one other time. Much of this is due to the Titans' third-round rookie, Tyjae Spears, looking very impressive. Spears' 2.37 rushing yards over expectation per attempt ranked third-best in the league behind only De'Von Achane and Breece Hall. Spears is averaging 2.0 yards per carry more than Henry and taking a chunk of the passing-down work. These factors result in Henry gaining just 65.6 rushing yards per game, the lowest he's seen since he was in a committee with Dion Lewis in 2018. Henry is also pacing for the fewest touchdowns since his rookie season in 2016. There's hope that Henry can warm up as the season progresses, but it appears his age and years of a heavy workload are finally catching up to him.
RB Brian Robinson Jr, Washington Commanders
Through the first two weeks of the season, Brian Robinson Jr looked like a late-round steal. However, as more games have unfolded, he's proving to be more gamescript-dependent than initially expected. In Week 3 and Week 5 losses to the Bills and Bears, Robinson was held to just 37% and 36% of the offensive snaps. When the team moves to an up-tempo offense, Robinson cedes his work to Antonio Gibson. That's not to say Robinson can't catch passes, as he was involved in that aspect through the first two weeks. But Gibson's versatility makes him a downfield threat, something Robinson cannot do. Gibson's skillset is a necessity when the team is trailing. Through Week 2, Robinson was the RB3 in PPR scoring. ZeroRB drafters may have been overzealous in crowning Robinson this year's late-round steal. While he'll still have some value as an early-down and goal-line running back in a high-powered offense, he's more of a boom-or-bust RB2 than the plug-and-play RB1 we had hoped for.
TE Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Last year, without Cooper Kupp in the lineup, Tyler Higbee saw his fantasy points jump by over two points per game. On a team bereft of pass-catchers, Higbee became one of just four tight ends to lead their team in targets last year, along with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Cole Kmet. With a healthy Kupp and Puka Nacua, that will assuredly not happen again. On Sunday, Kupp and Nacua gobbled up a ludicrous 68% target share, and Higbee's looks took the biggest hit. After averaging 6.5 targets per game through the first four weeks, Higbee pulled a season-low three on Sunday, catching just two for 20 yards. Kupp's return to the lineup pushes Higbee from a volume-based must-start TE1 to a potential roster cut.