Three Up
RB Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots
Very few people had "Ezekiel Elliott winning fantasy football leagues in 2023" on their bingo cards, but that may be the case. Elliott is far from the elite talent he was earlier in his career, but he's in a role tailor-made for fantasy success. Bailey Zappe is quick to abandon his deep reads and take the check down, which has amounted to 25 targets for Elliott over the last three weeks. The results have been both a high floor and a high ceiling. Elliott has scored 27, 9.6, and 21 PPR points in each of his last three games, being outscored by only Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Rachaad White. When he finds paydirt, you're getting elite RB1 production. When he doesn't, his involvement in the passing game provides a reliable floor. With a Week 17 matchup against the Bills, the Patriots could quickly find themselves in a game where they turn to the passing attack early, and Elliott will be the beneficiary, gobbling up even more targets. He's been hot over the last few weeks and should absolutely be in your lineup against the Bills.
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Describing Tee Higgins' early-season production as underwhelming is an understatement. Through Week 14, Higgins was PPR's WR61. A two-touchdown outing in Week 2 inspired hope after a Week 1 donut, but Higgins failed to eclipse 20 fantasy points in another matchup after that. Injuries, drops, penalties, you name it. Seemingly everything has worked against Higgins throughout this season. But with Ja'Marr Chase going down in Week 15, Higgins took full advantage. His injuries appear behind him, and he's heating up at just the right time. Since Chase's injury, only Amari Cooper and Amon-Ra St. Brown are outsourcing Higgins, who has back-to-back outings with over 20 points. The Chiefs-Bengals game in Week 17 may not be the high-flying and star-studded matchup we had hoped when perusing the schedule a few months ago, but Higgins' role in this offense without Chase means volume should be aplenty. Plug him in as a high-ceiling WR2 this week.
TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
This player requires a healthy dose of context. Gerald Everett is technically the per-game TE17 over the last three weeks. His best outing across those matchups was last week, with a meager 11.2 points. But the tight-end landscape has drastically changed. T.J. Hockenson is out for the year. Cole Kmet may miss Week 17. Taysom Hill's role has nearly vanished. Hunter Henry is injured. Darren Waller has not returned to form since his injury. Fantasy managers who lost a plug-and-play TE1 may find themselves in a Week 17 bind. In steps Gerald Everett. Since Easton Stick took over as the starting quarterback, Stick has targeted Everett eight times in every game. And in Week 17, the Chargers face off against the Broncos, who allow the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends. Is Everett a sure thing for Week 17? Absolutely not. Is he guaranteed eight targets every time Easton Stick starts? No. Is he even trending up? Meh. But for fantasy managers who find themselves scouring the waiver wire in Week 17, Everett could provide a reasonable floor and ceiling given his usage with Stick and favorable matchup.
Three Down
WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
For the second straight year, Stefon Diggs is pulling a disappearing act when his fantasy managers need him most. Last year, through Week 13, Diggs was PPR's overall WR1, averaging 22.6 points per game. And then, in Week 14-17, his 6.7 points were 60th among wide receivers. This year, through Week 13, Diggs averaged 19.0 points per game, good enough to be PPR's WR6. And since Week 14, he's averaged just 7.7 points, 50th among wide receivers. He appears disengaged. The target volume is there, but he isn't separating or catching the balls coming his way. A 68.6% catch rate through Week 12 has dropped to just 54.2% over the last three weeks. While I couldn't responsibly recommend that fantasy managers bench Diggs in a Week 17 must-win championship matchup, let's just say that I'd understand if someone wanted to.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
For anyone brave enough to trot out Nico Collins in their starting lineup last week, they were blessed with a late touchdown that salvaged his fantasy outing. Collins was objectively one of the best picks you could have made in your fantasy drafts this year. Slipping into the final rounds of drafts, he's provided back-end WR1 production for most of the season. But if Davis Mills or Case Keenum starts again in Week 17, it's tough to count on him as any more than a low-ceiling WR3. Throughout his career, Collins has played 12 full games with C.J. Stroud. In those games, he's averaging 7.7 targets, 5.4 receptions, 90.1 receiving yards, and 0.55 touchdowns per game, amounting to 17.64 PPR points. In his other 24 games with other quarterbacks, Collins has averaged 5.5 targets, 3.0 receptions, 38.0 yards, and 0.17 touchdowns, just 7.84 PPR points per game. Of course, all but one of those games with other quarterbacks came in his first two seasons, and he has since developed into a better receiver. But just four catches and 18 yards indicate a shaky floor without his QB1. Hopefully, Stroud is cleared to play in Week 17. If not, keeping Collins on your bench might not be a terrible idea.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
On a per-game basis, Travis Kelce is still fantasy's TE1 with 15.3 points per game. But that's the lowest per-game production we've seen from Kelce since 2016. Through Week 7, Kelce led the Chiefs in targets per game and averaged a whopping 20.8 points per game. Then, there was a change of guard in Kansas City as Rashee Rice saw his role grow, eclipsing a 60% snap share for the first time all season. Since Week 8, Rice has been clearing Kelce in targets, reception, and yards while also out-pacing him 4-to-1 on touchdowns. And since Week 8, Kelce's 11.3 PPR points per game is 9th among tight ends. The Chiefs have plenty of problems on offense this year, which is likely due to Mahomes not having his bail-out guy. Whether Tyreek Hill deep or Travis Kelce underneath, Mahomes has always had "his guy." Rice, a relatively raw rookie, is being thrust into a significantly larger role than expected. Mahomes is forcing balls to Justin Watson in coverage. Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney have been abysmal. All that adds up to defenses focusing on stopping an aging Kelce and doing it well. Even more than Kelce's moderate decline, though, is the change of the tight-end landscape. The league's influx of young talent has taken Kelce's historic edge away. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, T.J. Hockenson, and Cole Kmet are all tight ends on the proper side of the age curve, out-scoring Kelce over the season's second half. You're not benching Kelce in your Week 17 matchup, but his reign as a dominant tight end, tiers ahead of his positional competition, has likely ended.