Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary game script to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league. Anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SATURDAY, JANUARY 14th @ 10 PM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Buffalo | Miami | -13.5 | 43.5 | 28.5 | «« | ««« | ««« |
San Francisco | Seattle | -9.5 | 42.5 | 26 | « | «« | « |
Minnesota | NY Giants | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Jacksonville | -2 | 47.5 | 24.75 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | Baltimore | -8.5 | 40.5 | 24.5 | « | «« | «« |
Dallas | Tampa Bay | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||
NY Giants | Minnesota | 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | |||
Jacksonville | LA Chargers | 2 | 47.5 | 22.75 | |||
Tampa Bay | Dallas | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||
Seattle | San Francisco | 9.5 | 42.5 | 16.5 | |||
Baltimore | Cincinnati | 8.5 | 40.5 | 16 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 13.5 | 43.5 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Devin Singletary/James Cook (Bills)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Bills
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Josh Allen (Bills)
- Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (49ers), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis/Isaiah McKenzie/Dawson Knox (Bills)
- Defense: Bengals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Brock Purdy (49ers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Joe Burrow (Bengals)
- Running Back: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel/Jauan Jennings/George Kittle (49ers), Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen/T.J. Hockenson (Vikings), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Josh Palmer/Gerald Everett (Chargers), JaMarr Chase/Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd/Hayden Hurst (Bengals)
- Defense: 49ers