Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 13 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | FA | 115.3 | 7.7 |
| 2 | Jamison Crowder | WR | BUF | 128.1 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Darrel Williams | RB | ARI | 163.1 | 6.6 |
| 4 | Travis Etienne | RB | JAC | 44.2 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 164.4 | 5.4 |
| 6 | Sammy Watkins | WR | GB | 179.6 | 5.1 |
| 7 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 184.2 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Parris Campbell | WR | IND | 196.2 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Kadarius Toney | WR | NYG | 94.6 | 4.3 |
| 10 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | 96.4 | 4.3 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 06/06/2022-06/13/22***
We are finally seeing some positive news on Rob Gronkowski that he will come back to Tampa Bay for another season. We might not get official word for a while, but the buzz is definitely pushing up his ADP. Overall it has been a pretty leveled-out week for ADP risers with Gronkowski being the top risers but only rising up 7.7 spots. The heavy drafting of the Puppy this week has really zoned in on all the ADPs and making for more of a focused overall ADP on all players. Darrel Williams continues to be an ADP riser for the third straight week. He continues to be an avoid at the rising cost as the buying window was a couple of weeks back. Jamison Crowder and Sammy Watkins don't make much sense in the risers this week. What it comes down to with those two is the good offenses that they are attached to and that is what is pushing up their ADP. Crowder is a likable player, but an ADP of 128.1 in half PPR just doesn't feel right. Watkins is funny as he was one of the big fallers last week and now it quickly shifted back to a riser. My favorite of the risers this week are Travis Etienne, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and Kadarius Toney. These are all players that are young and have breakout potential connected to their names. Etienne is having nothing but positive buzz over the offseason so far and looks to be ready to see the field for a big role in 2022.
Daniel Jones and Kadarius Toney are tied to each other, if you believe in one you should believe in both. It makes sense with drafters always wanting to stack QB/WRs together and both players are very inexpensive at the moment. Mac Jones at ADP of 184.2 feels like a great value still as his ADP could be in the 150 range by the time the season starts. He is young and could see the offense adapting more to his abilities. The late quarterbacks with lower ADP make sense as in these Underdog tournaments you will see most drafters only drafting two quarterbacks. Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to rise all offseason as he got his big money and is tied to Mahomes. The crazy part about Valdes-Scantling is that his ADP is 96.4 and Skyy Moore's ADP is currently at 88.1. These two names should be swapped at those ADPs. Parris Campbell is the last name on this list and the positive health vibes from him continue to raise his ADP. With so many similar players to Campbell at the end of these drafts, it is an okay plan to add some Campbell but not go overboard.
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Top 10 ADP Fallers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 13 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 151.4 | 30.4 |
| 2 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | CLE | 189.5 | 8.5 |
| 3 | David Bell | WR | CLE | 161.6 | 7.9 |
| 4 | Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | 55.4 | 7.0 |
| 5 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 172.6 | 6.2 |
| 6 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 155.8 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 204.1 | 5.2 |
| 8 | Gus Edwards | RB | BAL | 174.4 | 4.6 |
| 9 | James Robinson | RB | JAC | 167.1 | 4.3 |
| 10 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 191.0 | 4.2 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 06/06/2022-06/13/22***
With all the negative news coming out on Deshaun Watson over the past couple of weeks we are seeing him take a major ADP nose dive, dropping down 30.4 spots this week alone. The bigger thing to see here is how much ADP of teams is connected to the quarterback position as we see five Browns players in the top six fallers this week. Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku are all tied to Watson and what happens to his playing time this season will drive the value of the entire offense. I feel like maybe we should avoid Watson right now but not so sure about the other Browns players on this list. If they fall to you in drafts, it might be a good time to grab them now at value. Even if Watson doesn't play a single game for the Browns this year, all these players will have value and contribute to the offense. The cost won't kill you right now in Best Ball. If Watson plays any amount of games, all these players' ADPs will take a jump up. Adding them now will work out even further in your favor.
The other name to keep drafting as his ADP keeps falling is Zach Wilson. At ADP of 172.6, he just makes sense to be a solid QB2 that has some upside. If you are a three-quarterback drafter, he is even better at his value. The Jets did everything possible this offseason to put all the skill players around him to help him succeed. The other four names on the list Justyn Ross, Gus Edwards, James Robinson, and Raheem Mostert all continue to be overvalued and their ADPs will likely even fall further. These are the type of names to avoid unless they are there in the last round of your draft. It is hard to see any of those names as league winners this year. Their ADPs falling makes perfect sense.
Weekly News and Notes
- QB Mac Jones - There is potential for Jones to take a big step forward according to ESPN's Mike Reiss "There is potential for significant improvement in the deep passing game".
- RB Saquon Barkley - Barkley is lining up all over the formation in OTAs.
- WR Robby Anderson - said he's "thinking about retiring". He quickly deleted the tweet later. Look for his ADP to fall this next week.
- QB Desmond Ridder - Sports Illustrate's Daniel Flick believes "it seems like a matter of when, not if" Ridder gets to start.
- RB Chris Carson - Carson said he has "no timeline" for his return.
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Mahomes has displayed a "strong connection" with Valdes-Scantling in offseason practices.
- WR Keelan Doss - The Giants signed Doss to a one-year deal.
- QB Geno Smith - Pete Carroll said Geno Smith is "still ahead" of Drew Lock in the team's quarterback competition.
- WR WanDale Robinson - "Could have a significant role perhaps as a gadget player - even if he doesn't start." NJ.com's Darryl Slater reports
- WR Hunter Renfrow - Raiders signed Renfrow to a two-year, $32 million extension.
- WR Darius Slayton - Slayton could be a candidate to be released with a crowded depth chart for the Giants.
- WR Michael Thomas - is "doubtful" to participate in next week's minicamp
- WR Jameson Williams - Doesn't appear that he will be ready for training camp.
- WR Cooper Kupp - Rams signed Kupp to a three-year extension.
- WR Sammy Watkins - Matt LaFleur said that Watkins is "going to be a big part of our offense."
- RB Najee Harris - The Steelers and Harris are discussing reducing his role "on certain downs."
- QB Mitchell Trubisky - Looks like Trubisky is the clear No. 1 QB during minicamp.
- RB Darrell Henderson - is dealing with a "soft-tissue" injury.
- RB Kyren Williams - suffered a broken foot and is expected to return during training camp.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson - said he is focusing on his "route-running and being a third-down back."
- WR Treylon Burks - deals with asthma according to the Titans receiving coach.
- QB Deshaun Watson - the bad news continues for Watson and we still don't have any details on what type of suspension the NFL will hand out.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 13% full with over 60,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 8,000 entries and is up 2% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here. Underdog also released The Puppy which is a $5 entry tournament that will have a total of 111,780 entries with a top prize of $75,000. It has filled up already and now we wait for The Puppy 2.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 2,740/55,008 full. Over the past week, 400 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 102,500/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
| Best Ball Site Tournament |
Entry Fee | Prize Pool | Total Entries | Current Entries | Percent Full | Tourney Type | Rake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog BBM3 |
$25 | $10,000,000 | 451,200 | 60,300 | 13% | Playoffs | 11.3% |
| Underdog Puppy |
$5 | $500,000 | 111,780 | 111,780 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.5% |
| Drafters Million BB Championship |
$20 | $1,000,000 | 55,008 | 2715 | 4.9% | Total Points | 9.10% |
| DraftKings $3.5M Millionaire |
$5 | $3,500,000 | 837,216 | 102,530 | 12.2% | Playoffs | 16.40% |
| DraftKings Play-Action (20 Max) |
$3 | $300,000 | 116,640 | 22,847 | 19.6% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Shovel Pass |
$20 | $300,000 | 17,280 | 2668 | 15.4% | Playoffs | 13.19% |
| DraftKings Bubble Screen (Single-Entry) |
$15 | $50,000 | 3888 | 1073 | 27.6% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Double Spy (Single-Entry) |
$200 | $200,000 | 1080 | 47 | 4.4% | Playoffs | 7.41% |
| DraftKings Playmaker |
$555 | $1,000,000 | 1980 | 32 | 1.6% | Playoffs | 9.00% |
| DraftKings Luxury Box |
$2120 | $144,000 | 72 | 0 | 0.0% | Playoffs | 5.70% |
| FFPC Best Ball Tournament |
$125 | $1,094,000 | 9072 | 882 | 9.70% | Playoffs | 3.53% |
| FFPC - Superflex Best Ball Tournament |
$35 | $163,875 | 4752 | ? | ? | Playoffs | 1.47% |
| BestBall10s BB10s Championship |
$10 | ? | 4500 | ? | ? | Total Points | ? |
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!